EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (930) SAN FRANCISCO (+$113) over Oakland
(Listing Zito only)
(Risking $500 to win $565)
2 STAR: (916) CINCINNATI (-$109) over Boston
(Listing Harang only)
(Risking $218 to win $200)
1 STAR: (907) LA DODGERS (+$125) over Detroit
(Listing Lowe only)
(Risking $100 to win $125)
1 STAR: (913) TEXAS (+$127) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $127)
1 STAR: (920) HOUSTON (+$132) over NY Yankees
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $132)
IndianCowboy
Game: Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) Under 146
Today the Indiana Fever take on the Atlanta Dream. The Atlanta Dream have been playing in almost exclusively Overs so far this year, but I think the Indiana Fever will control the pace of the game tonight. Indiana is giving up just 66 points per game so far. Atlanta gives up 86 per game so far and Indiana averages 70 scored. Indiana may get a few more points than average against this Atlanta team but I don’t think Atlanta getsmore than the 66 points that Indiana averages giving up. I see something like 75-65 getting the game well under the total here.
Ted Sevransky
Joba Chamberlain has downright nasty stuff, and his reputation is keeping the totals relatively low when he takes the mound as a starter. But Chamberlain will be on a pitch count once again here, in only his third start of the season, limited to around 80 pitches. He’s lasted just 6.2 innings in his first two starts against the light hitting Royals and Blue Jays, giving up five runs in the process. The Yankees middle relief behind him has been a problem area all season, a weakness made even worse thanks to Chamberlain’s move to the starting rotation.
Houston’s offense ranks in the Top 10 in the majors in batting average, with Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence all tearing the cover off the ball in recent weeks. And the Astros have been a much better offensive team at home, averaging more than five runs per game; more than a full run better than they score on the highway. They just pounded out 18 runs (six runs in each game) in their series against the Brewers earlier in the week, with the last two games of the three game set flying Over the total.
Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers have been living up to their nickname here in June, despite their struggles in Oakland earlier this week. finally snapping out of a season-long offensive funk, as evidenced by their 10-5-1 to the Over in their last 16 games. Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada are both healthy and hitting well; Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano and Jason Giambi have all shown signs of snapping out of their season long slumps. Houston’s Shawn Chacon is not the type of hurler likely to shut New York down, with 14 home runs allowed in just 74 innings of work this season. His 5.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at Minute Maid Park give us the confidence to bet this one Over the total, even without the DH in play tonight. Take the Over 9.5
Larry Ness Legend Play
LA Angels
The Rock
So Far (5-2) in Euro 2008
Game #1
Italy -146
Romania/Italy Over 2 -112
Game #2
Netherlands/France Over 2 +102
JB's Computer Picks
Boston Red Sox -110
St. Louis Cardinals -105
Los Angeles Angels -135
Mr. A's
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves have dropped six straight on the road, just 7-24 this season and are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague road games. Meanwhile, the Angels have won four of their last 5 home games, 20-14 this season and are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague home games.
Atlanta's Jo-Jo Reyes (2-4, 4.80) has lost his last three decisions and the Braves have lost six of the right-hander's last 7 road starts. He makes his first career appearance against the Angels and his first interleague appearance.
Los Angeles' Jon Garland (6-3, 3.87 ERA) has won his last three decisions and the Angels have won the lefthander's last four starts. He will make his first career appearance against the Braves. Garland is 8-11 with a 4.49 ERA in 30 interleague games, including 23 starts.
Take the Angels at home versus the major league worst road team. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 games.
Los Angeles Angels - 135
GINA
Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Both clubs send struggling starters to the mound tonight, Arizona's Doug Davis (2-3, 4.88 ERA) is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts and Kansas City's Zack Greinke (5-4, 3.77) is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in his last four. Expect loads of hits and runs tonight at Chase Field. The total has gone over in four of the last five meetings. Take the over!
Over - 9
BEN BURNS
Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
REASON FOR PICK: Dickey's first start didn't go too well, as he gave up five runs in six innings. However, he's still got an impressive 2.67 ERA and 1.111 WHIP on the season, a stretch spanning 27 complete innings. Additionally, tonight's matchup is significantly more favorable than Dickey's previous start was. That game came on the road vs. the Angels, the team which is the class of the AL West and which currently has the best winning percentage in the American League. Tonight, Dickey gets to pitch at home. That's significant as he hasn't allowed a single earned run (0.00 ERA) in 12 innings at SafeCo this season, holding opposing hitters to a mere .190 average during that stretch. Additionally, instead of facing an elite team, Dickey will now face a Washington squad which currently has the worst record in the National League and which scores fewer runs per game (3.7) than any team in baseball. Lastly, instead of facing a tough southpaw (Saunders already has nine wins) Dickey will now be opposed by right-hander Shawn Hill. Given that the Hill has a 6.66 ERA on the road with an awful 1.973 WHIP, even the light-hitting Mariners should be able to provide Dickey with some run support. Given those stats, it's no surprise that the Nationals are 0-5 in Hill's five road starts. The Mariners have enjoyed success in Interleague action. After taking two of three last month, the M's are now 25-14 (+11.4) against the National League since 2006 and 109-88 the past decade. With the Nationals at 2-10 their last 12 overall, let's lay the reasonable price with the home team.
Ted Sevransky
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
At some point this season, the Tigers are going to come to life. After an impressive three game sweep over the red hot White Sox, that time appears to be right now. Detroit’s hot hitting at home has been their lone consistent staple this season, averaging 5.6 runs per game at Comerica Park. They’ve won five of their last six on their current homestand, improving to a winning record overall at home for the first time all year, while pounding out 28 runs in those six games. That hot stretch of hitting should continue here against Derek Lowe, who’s still looking for his first road win of the year in seven starts. Lowe has struggled repeatedly away from the friendly confines of Dodgers Stadium, entering tonight’s game with a 5.40 ERA and a .313 batting average against in those seven road outings.
The Tigers are 7-2 in Armando Gallaraga’s nine starts this season, an impressive feat for a rookie pitcher on a team that is currently sitting at eight games under .500. His run of success should continue here against a Dodgers squad that has been held to two runs or less 17 times in 33 games since leadoff sparkplug Rafael Furcal went on the DL, winning only twelve games since Furcal went down. With a 2-8 mark in their last ten on the highway, including ugly back-2-back losses at San Diego over the last two days by a combined 13-1 margin, don’t expect the Dodgers to suddenly come to life here.
Remember, Detroit went 14-4 in interleague play last year while the Dodgers went 5-10. In ’06, the Tigers went 15-3 in interleague play while the Dodgers went 5-10. That disparity and the disparity in these two teams current form isn’t even close to being priced into the betting marketplace here. Take Detroit.
STEPHEN NOVER
Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Washington Nationals
Is there any team worse than the Washington Nationals? As a matter of fact, yes: The Seattle Mariners.
Seattle has the worst record in baseball. The Mariners have dropped 15 of their last 21 games. They have trouble scoring runs and their closer, J.J. Putz, is out with an elbow injury.
R.A. Dickey is set to make his second start for Seattle. He's been good in relief, but has failed miserably when used as a starter. The knuckleballer was 1-9 with a 7.87 ERA in 16 starts with Texas. In his lone start with the Mariners, Dickey gave up five runs and eight hits in six innings during a loss to the Angels.
The Nationals are going with Shawn Hill on the mound. Talented and underrated when healthy, Hill is off his finest performance of the season. He held the Giants to two runs in 7 1/3 innings on Saturday.
Like the Mariners, the Nationals have trouble scoring runs. Maybe seeing a knuckleball pitcher is just what they need. But this isn't a play on Washington, although I like Hill more than Dickey. This handicap is far more of a play against the Mariners being cast in a favorite's role.
BRYAN LEONARD
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
Purely a situational play here against New York. The Yankees had to fly into Houston off a late night affair yesterday in Oakland. Now they are entering a city in which they are unfamiliar with and staying in a hotel they have never stayed. Everything will be new to the Yankees while the Astros are at home and well rested as they play their third straight home series. Best of all we catch this Houston team as a sizable home underdog going against a pitcher who remains on a pitch count.
Jaba Chamberlain has gone from 62 pitches in his first start to 78 in his last. We can expect about 90 pitches tonight. This will also be his first road start in the Major Leagues.
New York has scored just 13 runs in their last four games and overall the offense has been a disappointment this season. The Yankees do not deserve to be a road favorite here over a team who has won 14 of their last 22 in this building.
PLAY HOUSTON
Ted Sevransky 3*
Since their awful 7-16 start that put manager Ron Washington on the hot seat, the Rangers have been the single most profitable team to support in all of baseball. They’ve won 17 different times as an underdog during that span, as part of a slow, steady run that has brought them back to the .500 mark as they travel to New York to take on the slumping Mets.
Slumping might not be an accurate word – the Mets are in free fall right now, losers of six of their last seven. New York’s bullpen is in dire straights – closer Billy Wagner blew two saves in their last two games in the just concluded series against Arizona – he’s not going to be available tonight. Neither is the only other guy in the bullpen who can close games, Aaron Heilman, who has worked in each of the last three games for New York. That’s particularly bad news considering that their middle relief has been terrible all year and starter Oliver Perez has lasted a grand total of 16.2 innings in his last four starts.
Perez is a horrible fit against the red hot Rangers lineup. Texas is patient at the plate, ranked fourth in the big leagues in walks taken, while Perez has issued 16 walks in the aforementioned last four starts, with 45 walks in 65 innings of work for the season. Texas has scored 91 runs in their last dozen games, more than 7.5 runs per outings, scoring eight or more runs on seven different occasions and at least four runs in every one of those ballgames. Meanwhile, underrated Texas starter Scott Feldman has thrown five quality starts in his last seven trips to the hill. The nice plus price here is simply too attractive to pass up. 3* Take Texas.
Ted Sevransky 3*
Atlanta is in absolute free fall right now. The team dropped to 7-24 on the highway with an extra inning loss at Chicago yesterday, thanks to another blown save opportunity from a bullpen that can’t get anybody out right now. They’ve lost an amazing 21 consecutive one run decisions on the road. They’ve lost six in a row against elite level teams (Philadelphia and Chicago), facing another elite level squad tonight. Their supposedly potent offense can’t hit their way out of a paper bag these days, scoring just 3.6 runs per game on the road this year, held to just 17 runs during their current six game skid. Let’s not forget the Braves 4-11 mark in interleague play last year (while LA went 14-4), or their 5-10 interleague mark in 2006. This is not a difficult team to fade in this price range, not at all.
The Angels have been pounding lefties like Atlanta’s Jo-Jo Reyes all year long. The numbers don’t lie: LA is 13-2 against southpaw starters in 2008, winning each of their last eight against lefties. For the season, LA is hitting .280 against lefties in sharp contrast to their .249 average against righties. In their last ten games, the dichotomy is even stronger: .302 against southpaws, .225 against righties. And unlike Atlanta, the Angels are red hot right now; 9-2 in their last eleven ballgames.
Angels starter Jon Garland is in tremendous current form, allowing just 12 runs in 47.1 innings in his last seven starts. That stands in sharp contrast to Reyes, who has yet to win a game on the road this season, while showing signs of struggling with the gopher ball: five homers allowed in his last four trips to the hill. Better team, hotter team, better pitcher, better bullpen and a relatively cheap price gets me to the window here. 3* Take the LA Angels.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -140
The Padres are on a bit of a roll but I think they cool off tonight on the road where they are 10 games below .500 on the season. The Padres are just 6-15 in their last 21 road games, 5-13 in their last 18 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record, and 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Indians are a dominant 13-3 in their last 16 vs. the National League West and 12-5 in their last 17 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Padres are not a good enough hitting team to hang with the Tribe tonight and when they aren't throwing Peavy, Young, or Maddux, they don't have much of a shot at winning. Bet the Tribe.
Wunderdog
San Diego at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -129
You can see the signs that this Indian offense, after struggling all season long, has begun to swing the bat and in a big way. Consider this. The Indians have now scored 75 runs in their last 11 games or an average of 6.8 per game. Their total in the previous 21 games was 77, so no doubt this team will begin winning at the rate everyone expected at the onset of the season. The Padres have been doing a lot of winning of late as they captured 7 of 8 at home, but now must travel where the results have been much different. The Padres are just 7-17 in their last 24 on the road and with the Indians heating up and playing at home we will take them here.