VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays
Look for these two teams to stay Under tonight as both fall into familiar roles that would dictate such a result. Atlanta, not a very good road team to begin with, is 28-9 Under this season away from home, not to mention 20-4 Under in the underdog role. Meanwhile, Toronto starter Dustin McGowan is a PERFECT 10-0 Under as a home favorite. Armed with those trends, we have to expect a low scoring affair.
Play on: Under
Rocketman
LA Angels @ LA Dodgers
Play On: 1* LA Angels -125
LA Dodgers are 13-28 last 3 years in Inter-League play. LA Angels have won 5 of their last 6 games overall. LA Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall. LA Angels bullpen has a 2.86 ERA on the road this season. LA Dodgers are scoring only 4.1 runs per game at home this year. Saunders is 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA overall this year and 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road this season. Saunders is 1-0 with a 2.46 ERA overall vs LA Dodgers since 1997 while Park has a 5.75 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!
GINA
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has won 11 of their last 12 games, last six at home and has beaten Milwaukee in five of the last 7 in Minnesota.
Twins' right-hander Nick Blackburn (6-4, 3.68) is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in seven starts at home. He has never faced Milwaukee.
Brewers' right-hander Seth McClung (5-3, 3.79 ERA) is 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his last fours starts and is 1-2 with a 7.53 ERA in four outings, including three starts versus the Twins.
Minnesota is 12-3 against the NL. Go with the hot Twins tonight at the Metrodome. The Brewers have lost their last 4 interleague games on the road.
Minnesota Twins -125
Oddswiz
LAA Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: LAA Angels
For tonight's free play we're going to use the Angels which just missed making our premium ticket. The Angels are clicking to the tune of 60% this season which is among the best in the Majors. Interestingly enough, they have played better on the road then at home! They are 26-13 on the road this year. They have won 10 of 12 games and beaten the Dodgers 9 out of the last 11, outscoring them 63-22. To top it off, they send Joe Saunders to the hill with an 11-3 record against Chan Ho Park who is just 5-7 against the Angels with a 5.75 era. This is a nice spot for a small play on the Angels at a fair price.
Larry Ness Las Vegas Insider
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET.
Bobby Cox hired Cito Gaston as his hitting coach way back in the early 80s, when Cox was managing the Toronto Blue Jays. In 1992, the Braves (managed by Cox) and the Blue Jays (now managed by Gaston) met in the World Series, with the Blue Jays winning. What goes around comes around. Cox has been a longtime stalwart in Atlanta and Gaston, fired years ago by the Blue Jays, is back as their manager. After the Blue Jays had dropped 13 of 17 games (May 31-June 19), manager John Gibbons was let go and Cito Gaston was brought in as the replacement. Toronto has been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams all season (4.18 RPG) and had really been struggling during its 17-game slide, averaging 3.76 per. Gaston knows something about hitting, so maybe he can help. After losing his first two games as Toronto's manager (1-0 and 6-3 at Pittsburgh), Gaston has led the Blue Jays to THREE wins in their last four games, as the team has scored 34 runs (8.5 per). Cox and the Braves visit Gaston and the Blue Jays tonight in the Rogers Centre, as interleague play concludes this weekend. The Braves are far from healthy, as outfielders Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz are currently on the DL plus SS Yunel Escobar sat out the team's last game (Wednesday at Milwaukee) and his backup (Omar Infante) strained his hamstring during the game and had to leave the contest. Chipper Jones, who is batting .394, is not ready to return to third base but the Braves are hopeful he can DH this weekend. All in all, it's not a very bright picture for a team that owns MLB's biggest home/away dichotomy this year. The Braves are 28-14 (plus-$974) in Atlanta but a pathetic 11-27 (minus-$1,795). That's a difference of 30 games and $2,770 vs the moneyline, a discrepancy larger than any team in MLB in '08. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta and his blister problems look to be over. He struggled in late May, going a three-start stretch in which he allowed 10 ERs over 15 innings (6.00 ERA). He has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts (13.2 innings) and with Atlanta winning both games, he's 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the season (team is 10-5). I like this guy but let's note that his ERA is 1 1/2 runs higher on the road (3.98) than it is at home (2.49), where he's 5-0 in eight starts (team is 8-0). Dustin McGowan goes for the Jays and after doing little in two seasons for Toronto, made 27 starts last year, going a respectable 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA (team was 13-14). He's gone 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA over his last six starts (team is 4-2), giving him a 6-5 mark with a 4.21 ERA on the season in 16 starts (7-9). However, one can't ignore the fact that he's been terrible on the road (2-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts / team is 3-7), while pitching extremely well here in Toronto (4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts / team is 4-2). That's no surprise as the Blue Jays went 9-4 (3.27 ERA) in his home starts last year, giving Toronto a two-year 13-6 mark in his home starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.
Bankroll Sports
2* Baltimore Orioles -120
MadduxSports
Toronto -135
KBWINS.
NY Mets/Michael Pelfrey
Global Handicapping
Chi White Sox
JerseySteveWinsc
Detroit
JIM'S HOT PICKS
Milwaukee
Templer's Sports Picks
San Diego
TRACE ADAMS
Minnesota Twins
Insider Sports Report
Colorado +115
TOTALS 4 U
MILWAUKEE/MINNESOTA UNDER
THE VEGAS STEAMLINE
LA ANGELS/LA DODGERS UNDER
DARKHORSE
White Sox
RAZOR SHARP
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON UNDER
MIKE WYNN
Arizona +105
#1 SPORTS
DODGERS +105
COMPUTER SPORTS
WHITE SOX-110
LEE STEVENS
COLORADO +125
PLATINUM PLAYS
TAMPA BAY RAYS - 170
BIG TIME SPORTS
TAMPA BAY / PITTSBURGH UNDER 8.5
Global Sports Picks
ORIOLES -130
Glen Mcgrew
Tigers
Bob Donahue
Twins
PRIORITY SPORTSINFO
Oakland Athletics -155
BILLY IRISH
BOSTON -160
Rocketman Sports
Paul Leiner
10* Yankees GM 1 -135
floridabookybusters
Ponson/Martinez NY Yankees
Prime Sports Picks
Oakland -160
PowerPlayWins
Astros -125
Joe Wiz
Washington +120
Ollie's Picks
Rays - 175
Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
1 Unit on Washington Nationals +122
The Orioles have won just 2 out of the last 7 games in this matchup and I have them in a big letdown spot here after crushing the Cubs yesterday. Cabrera is one of the worst interleague pitchers you'll find. The Orioles are 1-10 in Cabrera's last 11 interleague starts, 0-5 in Cabrera's last 5 starts vs. the National League East, and 1-5 in his last 6 starts overall. The Orioles are just 5-22 in their last 27 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter and 9-25 in their last 34 games vs. a left-handed starter. It's no secret that the O's don't handle lefties well. Bet the Nats tonight.
Alex Smart
Game: Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun
Prediction: Atlanta Dream
Reason: Connecticut just played a big game last night on the road against against long time rivals Detroit, which could easily have them in a let down situation. Getting motivated in this spot, on tired legs, against a visiting Atlanta team that has lost the first 13 games of their inaugural season in this league, will also be a problem for HC Mike Thibault. The combination of the Dreams desperation for a win , and Connecticut's schedule and lack of motivation, should make for a much closer tilt than many might expect. Final notes & Key Trends: The Sun are 0-7 ATS in home games versus poor teams like the Dream that have been outscored by their opponents by 3+ points per game on the season. Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover
Scott Spreitzer's "TKO" 20* Friday Night IL BAILOUT BLOWOUT! (TKOs = 2-0!)
I'm laying the price with the Angels on Friday. Joe Saunders is having a great year for Los Angeles. He's been almost un-hittable on the road, posting a 1.89 ERA this season with a sparkling WHIP of 1.09. That's in the American League, where a designated hitter bats. Amazing numbers. Note that he already shut down the Dodgers once this year at home, throwing seven strong innings in a game where the Dodgers got to use a DH. He'll be facing the LA Dodgers tonight at Chavez Ravine, and the pitchers will be batting. Chan Ho Park gets the start for the home team. He's not even a major league caliber starter at this point�just a desperation fill-in. The Halos are 16-7 their last 23 games, and have been dominant so far against the National League. The slumping Dodgers are 11-22 their last 33 games, and just dropped two of three on this field to the White Sox. We're getting a World Championship contender from the superior American League at a cheap price against a slumping opponent representing the woeful NL West. Oh, the Halos are 12-3 in the 15 games Saunders has started this year! The Angels minus the price is the play.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* IL BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT! (2nd TY, won 1st)
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Friday. Nick Blackburn has been very tough for opponents to hit this season, particularly at home. The Minnesota hurler has a 2.20 ERA in the Metrodome, with a solid 1.24 WHIP. Against teams getting their first look at him in 2008, his ERA is a very strong 2.96 wherever the games have been played. He may have trouble in the second half of the season once division rivals get their timing down. Right now, the first look teams are struggling badly. Milwaukee didn't see Blackburn when these teams met last week. And Minnesota took two out of three on the road anyway. You may not be aware that red-hot Minnesota has won 11 of its last 12 games, and is 9-2 its last 11 home games. The wagering markets have been very slow to react to the Twins' hot run the past few weeks, and to Blackburn's level of effectiveness all season. We've got the hottest team in baseball, at a short price, throwing a pitcher who's very difficult to hit in a first look. And, we've also got an American League team hosting a National League team in a season where the AL is just dominating Interleague action. The Twins minus the price is the play.
BIG AL's #1 BASEBALL SIDE WINNER; 5-1 RUN LAST 6
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves. Toronto comes into this game against Atlanta off of their third win in their last four games, but more importantly, that win came against the hottest starter in the Major Leagues in Cincinnati's Edinson Volquez. The Jays not only beat Volquez and the Reds, they trounced them by six runs (7-1). Jays outfielder Vernon Wells missed an entire month with an injury, and although Toronto did not seem to benefit much at first from his return in the second week of June, Wells seems to have really found his stride now and has sparked a recent surge in offense for this team that has now scored a total of 34 runs in their last four games and outscored their opponents by 21 runs during this time. At 11-27, the Braves continue to be one of the worst teams in the Majors on the road and things haven't been so great at home either, as Atlanta is coming into this road series off of a six-game homestand in which they only managed to go 3-3 against the likes of Milwaukee and Seattle. Toronto's righthander Dustin McGowan has decent overall numbers at 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA, but he has been lights out in front of the home crowd at 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA when starting at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Take the Jays.
BIG AL's FRIDAY BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER; 5-1 LAST 6
At 8:10pm our selection is Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins 'under' the total. Two teams with almost identical records begin a three game interleague series with two starters who are also very similar. Milwaukee's Seth McClung and Minnesota's Nick Blackburn are both righthanders in their mid-20s with winning records and ERAs right around 3.8 runs per game. McClung in particular has been incredibly effective lately for the Brewers. In his last start on June 21, McClung was practically unhittable for six innings against the Orioles before folding a bit and that is to be expected from a converted reliever who's had only six starts in his last two Major League seasons. McClung has been particularly stingy this season, only giving up 43 hits in almost 55 innings so far, and if the Brewers keep his innings down he should continue to be very productive for them. Blackburn has been more generous in the hits department, but he has only surrendered 15 walks in 93 innings and if you ignore his poor performance on June 6th against the Rangers in which he gave up seven earned runs, Blackburn has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his other six starts between May 16 and now. Six of Milwaukee's last eight road games have gone under the total. Take the 'under'.
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
Arizona vs Florida
Take: FLORIDA
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -167
The Rays are rolling and so is the southpaw Kazmir. With as poorly as the Pirates have been against lefty starters this season, we'll bet the Rays for a unit here. The Rays are an unbelievable 22-4 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 6-0 in Kazmir's last 6 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, 7-1 in Kazmir's last 8 starts as a favorite period, and 7-2 in his last 9 starts. The Pirates are 15-43 in their last 58 interleague games as an underdog, 5-22 in their last 27 interleague games as an underdog of +151 to +200, 2-10 in their last 12 during game 1 of a series, and 0-6 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Rays.
Mr A's
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers have won 12 of their last 15 games and 8 of its last 9 at home. Meanwhile, the Rockies have struggle away from home, dropping 23 of their last 29 games on the road. Colorado has won 7 of the last 8 meetings, but they haven't met since 2005.
Go with the Tigers at home with rookie Eddie Bonine (1-0, 5.84) on the hill. The Rockies have lost five of their last six games and have played dreadful on the road, just 12-28 this season. To boot, they have lost right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (2-7, 4.52 ERA), last 9 road starts.
Detroit Tigers -125
John Ryan
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Colorado Rockies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 51-28 making 23.4 units since 2002. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season and starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings. Colorado starter Jimenez is pitching very well of late sporting a 1.35 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts. In his last start he went 8 IP and allowed just 2 hits and 1 ER versus the NY Mets. Rockies bullpen is firing on all cylinders sporting a 2.55 ERA and a 0.736 WHIP over their past 7 games spanning 17.7 IP.
WINNERS EDGE
CHICAGO CUBS -115 , 2 UNITS
SEATTLE MARINERS + 125 , 1 UNIT
CLEVELAND INDIANS RL -110, 2 UNITS