SAPKOWSKI
Premium
BOS Red Sox
OAK Athletics
Free picks
TB Rays
COL Rockies
Tips:For Euro 2008 Spain to win
BEN BURNS
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
While this selection is too 'expensive' to qualify as one of my 'guaranteed' selections, I still believe that the favored Indians offer solid "value." Considering that they're roughly 2-1 favorites, that may be a bit difficult for some to grasp. However, in my opinion, even large favorites can often provide us with value, provided the price is lower than what it should be. I feel that's the case with this matchup.
The Indians are a better team than their record indicates. Behind another gem from Cliff Lee, they got back on track yesterday. Lee, who had 11 K's in his eight innings of work, was quoted after the game as saying: "We need to win every game. We expect to win every time we come to the ballpark. Hopefully, we can start on a long winning streak." With Sabathia taking the mound, I expect them to build off Lee's performance with another victory this evening. The reigning Cy Young award winner is finally rounding into form. Indeed, over his last three starts, Sabathia is 2-0 with an outstanding 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. The Indians won those games by a combined score of 15-5.
I successfully backed the Reds when they swept the Indians last month. That was at Cincinnati though, where the Reds are are respectable 21-17. On the road, they're an ugly 15-27. That's one of the worst 'away' records in the big leagues. Not that they should need any additional motivation, but the fact that the Reds swept that earlier series should help provide a motivating effect for the Tribe here. Look for Sabathia to outpitch rookie Daryl Thompson, who is making just his second start, as the revenge-minded Indians start the series off with an important victory.
Sportsbettingstats
L.A. Angels at L.A. Dodgers
The Dodgers come into this game after losing to the Chicago White Sox 2-0, while the Angels lost their last game to the Washington Nationals 5-4. The Angels are playing good baseball and are in 1st place in the AL West 4.5 games ahead of the Oakland A's and are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games and are in 2nd place in the weak NL West only 3.5 games back of the Arizona Diamondbacks, even though they are 6 games under .500. Taking the mound for the Dodgers is Chan Ho Park (2-2 2.83 ERA), who is the Dodgers long reliever but will start tonight's game because of injuries in the Dodgers rotation. In Park's last start he went 5 innings giving up only 1 earned run in a no decision. In yesterdays loss to the White Sox the Dodgers scored 0 runs on 5 hits and left 8 men on base. On defense the Dodgers gave up 2 runs on 7 hits to the White Sox. Taking the mound for the Angels is Joe Saunders (11-3 3.03 ERA), who has been solid for the Halos this season and in his last start went 7 innings giving up 2 earned runs in a win. In their last loss to the Nationals the Angles scored 4 runs on 9 hits and left 6 men on base. On defense the Angels gave up 5 runs on 9 hits to the Nationals.
Staff Pick: The Angles have the advantage in the pitching match up as Saunders will lead the Majors in wins if he wins tonight. The Dodgers offense has been terrible, as they simply cannot score runs. They rank 25th in runs scored (324), while the Angles rank 21st (339). Both teams are in pretty weak divisions, but the Angles have been finding ways to win, while the Dodgers have not. Park has not had good luck against the Angels, as he is 5-7 with a 5.75 ERA in 18 career starts against them. The Dodgers are only 1 game above .500 at home and the Angels are a good road team (26-13). The Angels had won 5 straight overall and 10 of 11 on the road before losing 5-4 in Washington on Wednesday. The key for the Dodgers is how Park pitches, as he has to have a good start and cannot count on the offense for a lot of run support. Saunders has not faced many of the Dodgers, so he will have an advantage in this game. Look for a low scoring game and for Saunders to have a solid outing, as the Angels will take game 1 of the Freeway series.
DR VEGAS
Toronto -125
NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER
HOUSTON +150
Sports Investors Network
SD-140
The Parlay King
ChiSox -1.5 +195
FRANK PATRON
Rays -165
DONALD TRAN
Braves +115
Jennifer Barry
Red Sox -155
Chad Jordan
Royals -120
USA Sports Consulting
NATIONALS +120
BIG SHOW
Chicago Cubs +103
JAKE TIMLIN
Red Sox
David Page
Dodgers +117
SPORTS BOOK EDGE
Ariz.D'backs/Fl.Marlins Over
VALLEY SPORTS
LA Dodgers +125
LPW SPORTS FORECAST
Ch.W.Sox +105
BOB HARVEY
Bo.Red Sox -1.5
PURE LOCK
Marlins -135
SILVER KEY PLAY
Tigers -125
David Malinsky
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
PICK: 4* MINNESOTA
At first the question here was whether or not Seth McClung’s recent 3-1/2.55 run was one of an imposter. This is the same McClung, after all, that will have his 7-11/6.59 of 2005 and 6-12/6.29 of 2006 with Tampa Bay etched forever into editions of the Baseball Encyclopedia. But now we find that we do not have to make a dramatic judgment ourselves - the marketplace has done that for us, and it is to such an extreme that we can politely disagree, while getting excellent value to do so.
How does the above translate into actual baseball logic? A Minnesota team playing the best baseball of anyone in the game right now, is being favored by less than the Metrodome home field advantage in this setting. The market statement is that the Brewers with McClung and an erratic bullpen are a better overall package than the Twins, with a rejuvenated Nick Blackburn on the hill, and one of the best bullpens in the game behind him. That easily gets us in play.
Yes, McClung’s recent run has been solid, including a home win over Minnesota two starts back. But that means that it is a quick second look for a lineup that can now read his offerings much better, and the timing is ideal - control has been the downfall for McClung in his career, and after five walks in his last outing vs. Baltimore, we can believe that issue will be returning to the table again. And now his challenge vs. the Twins also ramps up - the first meeting came on a Sunday afternoon, after Minny had swept the first two games of the series at Miller Park. In a day game following a night game, and with no DH, Joe Mauer did not play against McClung, only coming in later to pinch hit.
While McClung is capable of quickly crashing back to earth, Blackburn is showing that his 6-4/3.68 is for real, particularly the 2.20 from this mound. After getting roughed up against the White Sox on a windy day in Chicago three starts back, his only genuinely bad outing all season, he rebounded to beat Cleveland on the road in this next start, and then worked a sparkler in that 6-1 win over Arizona that brought us back a 4* ticket - he allowed only three hits over seven innings, and did not walk a batter. Those two starts are what lead us to say that his numbers are “for real” - after the worst outing of the season he showed no lapse in confidence at all, walking only one of the 46 batters he faced in the two ensuing wins. And with that deep and talented bullpen behind him, we are guaranteed a quality arm on the mound for every inning of this one, making this price far too low for the current circumstances - a Milwaukee team that has not played a winning opponent on the road since May 17-18, an ugly 0-3 sweep against the Red Sox in Fenway, is over-valued here.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
PICK: 6* CUBS/WHITE SOX Over
We have cashed two 6* tickets playing the White Sox under in the last three days, and the opening premise was a simple one - they will have drastic offensive swings, literally, based on the conditions at hand, and the oddsmakers are going to have a difficult time dealing with it. Today’s line is an outstanding example. In those last two 6* plays we were dealing with fresh bullpens, and neither a ballpark nor starting pitchers that were conducive to home runs being hit. Yet the opener was ‘8’ in Los Angeles in the Buerhle/Lowe matchup on Tuesday, before falling to ‘7.5’, and there were ‘8’s’ to first pitch in Danks/Kershaw yesterday. Now we have a huge shift in ballparks; a much tougher offensive opponent; a warm day with the a cross wind that does not hurt our purposes (right to left early, then out to left later in the day); and instead of facing strangers the offenses are each up against a starter that they just saw less than a week ago. And what is the line? 8.5. Once again the market is behind the curve, and we will take full advantage.
With the White Sox it is all about home runs. they are #3 in the Major League’s at producing them, but the overwhelming majority have come here on the South Side. But look how much trouble the marketplace is having distinguishing between the overall offensive punch, and the specifics - 11 of the last 13 White Sox road games have played Under the Total, and 25 of 33. But in the month of June, when the temperatures began to climb, the games here have gone Over at a 9-3-1 clip, and it is easy to see why - in six of those games the Chicago offense topped the total by themselves. We believe that the conditions are ripe for more of the same today.
Jose Contreras took his hot streak about as far as he can at his age, but the wheels have since come off. Over his last three starts it has been a horrendous 0-3/10.12, including a dismal drubbing at Wrigley last weekend when he was raked for nine runs on 10 hits over 3.1 innings, with three of them crossing over those ivy walls. Having allowed 30 hits over 16 innings of those last three starts there is little reason to fear an immediate turnaround, especially against an offense that just saw him, and is well aware of what is in his arsenal.
Meanwhile Ryan Dempster earns legit market respect here off of his 9-2/2.63, and he dominated the White Sox in that 7-1 rout on Sunday night. But there are a couple of keys here. First, every bit of Dempster’s solid showing is in this line, and perhaps more than should be. Yes, he has been good. No, we do not expect him to maintain it. Here are a couple of those keys - of the 127 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings so far, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #118. In other words, he has been piling up the stats vs. very weak competition. And on that same list, he is #124 in BABIP (“Batting Average on Balls in Play”). In other words, he has also been very lucky. And in terms of that earlier domination of the Cubs, that came with the DH in effect, and Jim Thome sidelined for most of the game. But the ChiSox still had 10 hits, the high allowed by Dempster this season, including a double by Thome when he was finally able to step in as a pinch hitter.
Now the Sox get Thome in from the start, and also a quick second look. What is that worth? In first meetings against opponents this season, it is a 2.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for Dempster. In the four second meetings those numbers go to 3.63 and 1.34, and note that the ERA is saved by five unearned runs over the 22.1 innings. No team has had an immediate back-to-back against him, and now that White Sox get that opportunity. And with Dempster having allowed a home run in each of his last five road starts, he is much more vulnerable here than those All-Star worthy base numbers show.
The bullpens for both teams do not bring the usual edges either, with the opposing hitters getting plenty of looks last week. Scott Linebrink and Bobby Jenks have been outstanding for the White Sox, but each worked yesterday, and now face the tough adjustment of the long plane ride home that segues into this early start. Meanwhile the Cubs had to go deeply into their pen yesterday; do not have Carlos Marmol on the best of form; will not have Scott Eyre at all, a needed lefty option vs. this lineup; and have only been able to get 13 pitches from Kerry Wood since Saturday. The door is open for plenty of runs here, yet we only need to find four from each team and it is mission accomplished.
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
PICK: 5* SAN FRANCISCO/OAKLAND Over
One of the advantages that even mediocre pitchers get in Inter-League play is that they get a chance to work to batters that have little experience against them, and sometimes the weaker a pitcher is, the more likely he is to pitch above his level - hitters often have a difficult time sitting back and taking pitches that look very hittable. That advantage does not exist here, with the A’s already seeing Kevin Correia, and the Giants facing Dana Eveland, in that series across the Bay two weeks ago. And that makes this Total far too low for a pair of suspect arms.
Correia checks in at 1-5/5.20 for the season, and the idea of making him a starter appears to be a failure. It is partially a case of lacking stamina, but even more-so the fact that there simply is not enough stuff to fool batters on the second or third pass through the lineup in a given game. That was the case against Oakland in the first meeting, when he opened the game well, but by the time the counting was done it was five earned runs over 5.1 innings. And with twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2) in the follow-up from that one at Kansas City, there just it not much to fear.
Meanwhile we have written often about Eveland in recent weeks, including cashing both a 5* Over and a 5* Side ticket with Florida in the last game against him. And while it took some late-inning success against the bullpen to break that one open, note how much he struggled through the his part of the game - 12 of the 29 batters that he faced reached base, and he labored to the tune of 103 pitches for 6.1 innings. But he was fortunate to strand 10 of those 12 runners, which keeps his ERA in a solid range, and also creates this value for us. It was similar to his win at San Francisco two starts back, when nine Giants reached base, and only one scored. And three starts back against the Yankees it was 11 of 26 reaching, with only three scoring. The bottom line? The pitching forms may show a guy with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts, but that came because of baseball roulette, and not strong pitching - stranding 28 of 33 runners in 19 innings is something that does not continue. Now the Giants get a second quick look at a guy with major control issues (18 walks over 23.1 innings of his last four outings), and this time can take full advantage, especially with a bit of a revenge spark from being swept in that earlier series adding some spice.
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies -115
Brett Myers has been a huge disappointment for the Philadelphia Phillies, but we do expect him to get decent run support tonight vs. Kason Gabbard of the Texas Rangers, and the Phillies have the superior bullpen to seal the deal.
Gabbard is not exactly in Cy Young form himself, as he is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.78 WHIP for the season, and his numbers are actually worse than that in his last three starts, where he owns a hideous 6.46 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. The southpaw is facing a Philadelphia lineup that has hit significantly better vs. left-handed pitching (.274) than vs. right-handed pitching (.194) over the last 10 games.
Myers is a real mystery as he was projected to be the number two starter for the Phils this season. However, just when it looked like he has straightened himself out, he has regressed badly again in his last three starts. Maybe the fact that the Rangers have never faced him before could be enough to get him going again here.
What we really like about this matchup however is that it pits the team with the best bullpen ERA in baseball in the Phillies (2.60) vs. the team with the worst bullpen ERA in Texas (4.98), and the struggles of Myers have kept this price reasonable.
Pick: Phillies -115
New York Yankees +120
Pedro Martinez of the New York Mets referred to the New York Yankees as his Daddy when they continually battered him when he was with the Red Sox, and Pedro is nowhere near the level he was then right now.
Martinez is a shell of his former self this year, as he has a 6.57 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in five starts with just one Quality Start among those outings, His last start may have been his worst yet, as he allowed six earned runs and nine hits while lasting just 4.1 innings vs. the Colorado Rockies. He now must contend with a blistering-hot Yankees lineup that hitting .308 as a team while averaging 6.00 runs over the last 10 games. And Martinez is a decided favorite here to boot!
Now Sidney Ponson is making his Yankees debut, and he actually was not terrible with Texas earlier this season, posting a 3.88 ERA in 55.2 innings. Besides, he does not need to be fantastic the way the Yanks are hitting the ball right now, he merely needs not to get shelled. Considering his ERA in the early going, we feel that he is more than capable of giving the Bombers every chance to win this game.
All things considered, this could be one of those rare times when the routinely overpriced Yankees actually offer some value.
Pick: Yankees +120 (Game 2)
Terron Chapman
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have won nine straight and look to extend their winning streak this evening when they return home to face the Miwaukee Brewers in the first game of a weekend interleague set. The Brewers will not be an easy out however as they have won 8 of their last 10 overall.
The Twins will send Nick Blackburn to the mound with hopes he can continue his strong pitching. Blackburn is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in seven home starts this season. The Twins have gone 5-2 in those starts and are 4-0 in Blackburn's last 4 home starts against a team with a winning record. This will be his first appearance against a Brewers team hitting .238 against right handed pitching on the road this year.
The Brewers will send a young right hander to the mound as well in Seth McClung. McClung held the Twins to 4 hits and 2 earned runs in 6 innings pitched of a 4-2 Milwaukee win on June 15th. The Twins will be more prepared for McClung the second time around and with this meeting being in the Metrodome, where the Twins are hitting .287 against righties on the season, we could see him struggle some. This will be only his third road start this year and second in a month.
The Twins are 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between the two and took two of three from the Brewers to jumpstart this win streak. Milwaukee is just 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning record. Play on the Minnesota Twins for 1 unit.
LARRY NESS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
The D'backs won the NL West last year despite owning the NL's lowest team batting average. In the early going this year, the D'backs were among the highest scoring teams in the majors but after ending April with MLB's best record (20-8), Arizona has "come back to the pack." The D'backs enter this weekend series in Florida with the Marlins, just one game above .500 (40-39), which means they have gone just 20-31 overall, since the season's opening month. That includes an 8-18 road mark since the beginning of May. The D'backs first visited Florida this season in late May (May 20-22) and were averaging 5.4 RPG (28-16 record) at the time. However, the Marlins took all three games from Arizona, holding the D'backs to a total of just three runs during the sweep. As mentioned already, the Arizona bats have gone silent after the team's fast start and that's evidenced by the 3.4 RPG the team has averaged since May 20. Getting the start for Arizona is Micah Owings and after a 4-0 start (2.42 ERA) in '08, he's gone just 2-6 with a 6.39 ERA over his last 11 starts (team is 3-8). He'll face a Florida team which enters this series having lost six of its last eight games and nine of its last 13. However, the good news for Florida is that tonight's starter, Ricky Nolasco, seems not only 100 percent healthy but also pitching better than he has at any time in his short career. Nolasco is 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA over his last nine starts, posting a 3.34 ERA. The Marlins just got swept here in Miami by the rejuvenated Rays and I expect them to 'wash' that bad taste from their mouths quickly. The D'backs could act as the perfect foil. Take the Marlins.
STEPHEN NOVER
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
OK, the small-market Minnesota Twins are not a public team. But that still isn't a good excuse for the oddsmaker to keep undervaluing the Twins.
All Minnesota has done is win nine straight games. The Twins have done this in convincing style, too, winning by an average of four runs per game.
Milwaukee has been playing well, too. But the Brewers are not a strong road club and their bullpen can't match Minnesota's. Brewers starter Seth McClung has been pitching way above his head. I see McClung tumbling back to his below mediocre self as teams see him for the second time and his noted lack of command comes back to haunt him. He gave up five walks in his last outing. That's a red flag. The Twins just faced McClung less than two weeks ago. That's another red flag.
Twins starter Nick Blackburn is 4-2 at the Metrodome with a 2.20 ERA. He's only had one poor start in his last 10 outings and that came in the wind against the White Sox at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in six of his last seven starts.
This is a cheap price to get the superior American League team with the better starting pitcher and bullpen, while playing the best ball in the Majors.
The Twins have a fantastic interleague mark, winning 40 of their past 52 games versus the National League. They've also knocked off the Brewers in 11 of the past 16 meetings.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Colorado at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -130
For years Colorado has been bounced around on the road, and lately they have taken their biggest bounce. The Rockies are now 6-24 on the road over their last 30 games, and they have certainly seen some mediocre pitchers in that stretch, but still can't find the win column. At this stage of Tigers’ rookie starter Ed Bonnis’ career has to be considered mediocre, but as we pointed out that doesn’t that seem to matter to the Rockies when on the road. We think 6-24 says that pretty clearly. When you add in the fact that the Tigers are now 13-4 in their last 17, and playing like the championship team everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season, it is hard to resist a 6-5 favorite here in terms of odds.
Dustin Hawkins
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are hot, and ready to make some noise in the race for the playoffs. The Rockies are heading the other way in the standings and dont see that changing. The Better Team wins Friday as we take the Tigers to the Bank!!
Brandon Lang
15 Dime – Angels
5 Dime - Brewers
5 Dime - Cubs
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -123
The Royals handled the Cards on the road in their recent interleague series and I like them to continue to take care of business at home. Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) - starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games are 88-36 the last 5 seasons. Pineiro is just 2-13 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are an impressive 12-3 against the money line in interleague games this season and Meche is 19-11 against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons. Take the red hot Royals.
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The fans at Minute Maid Park will be treated to a game between the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros when they take their seats on Friday. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be the starting pitcher for the Red Sox on this day. Righthander Matsuzaka is 8-1 this season with a 3.46 ERA. Matsuzaka's opponent in this one will be Runlevys Hernandez. The Astros righthander has a 0.00 ERA to go along with a 0-0 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Red Sox listed as 160-moneyline favorites versus the Astros, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. Tim Wakefield combined on a three-hit shutout on Wednesday, as the Red Sox defeated the Diamondbacks 5-0. The Red Sox won the game as -150 favorites, while the five runs fell UNDER the posted over/under (9). Kevin Cash led the way with a three-run blast and Brandon Moss drove in two runs for the Red Sox. Wakefield got credit for the win, and Jonathan Papelbon closed out the ninth for his 23rd save. The Astros took the finale and clinched the three-game series with a 7-2 victory over the Rangers as a -135 favorite on Thursday. The game's nine runs went as a PUSH against the posted total of 135. David Newhan went 3-for-5 at the plate with two RBIs, and Hunter Pence hit a three-run double in the win. Wandy Rodriguez allowed one run off five hits over eight innings of work. Current streak: Boston has won 2 straight games. Team records: Boston: 49-32 SU Houston: 37-42 SU Boston most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Houston are 2-1 After playing Arizona are 5-3 After a win are 5-5 Houston most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Boston are 0-3 After playing Texas are 3-7 After a win are 2-8 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road Boston is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games Houston is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Chris Jordan
400 Cleveland R Line
400 Under Toronto
400 Pitt
400 Florida