JOHN RYAN
New York Dragons vs. Dallas Desperados (Arena)
Play: New York Dragons
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on New York – AiS shows an 86% probability that New York will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-17 for 72% ATS since 2002. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an average offensive team averaging 5.9 to 6.6 YPP and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 5.9 to 6.6 YPP. Here is a second system that has gone 33-11 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 17 points or less in the first half last game. Dallas is terrible roles for this game noting that they are just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse after 8 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas HC McClay is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a non-conference game as the coach of Dallas. Take New York.
Vernon Croy 20 Unit MLB IL Total Smash of the Year
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Over
Both of these teams are hitting the ball very well this season and both of these pitchers have struggled overall. Texas is hitting .297 as a team at home while averaging 6 rpg and the Phillies are hitting .269 against left starters while averaging 5.9 rpg. The Rangers opponents are averaging 6.1 rpg against them at home this season and Kason Gabbard (2-3, 4.96 ERA) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.46 while walking 11 batters over just 15.3 innings. Brett Myers (3-9, 5.51 ERA) has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 7.54 allowing 67 hits over just 45.3 innings and I look for Texas to hit him hard tonight at home. Myers has given up 8 homeruns over his last 3 starts and the Rangers bullpen has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.60. Take the over as my MLB IL Total Smash of the Year as my huge 32-18 MLB Run continues
Larry Ness
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET.
Bobby Cox hired Cito Gaston as his hitting coach way back in the early 80s, when Cox was managing the Toronto Blue Jays. In 1992, the Braves (managed by Cox) and the Blue Jays (now managed by Gaston) met in the World Series, with the Blue Jays winning. What goes around comes around. Cox has been a longtime stalwart in Atlanta and Gaston, fired years ago by the Blue Jays, is back as their manager. After the Blue Jays had dropped 13 of 17 games (May 31-June 19), manager John Gibbons was let go and Cito Gaston was brought in as the replacement. Toronto has been one of MLB's lowest scoring teams all season (4.18 RPG) and had really been struggling during its 17-game slide, averaging 3.76 per. Gaston knows something about hitting, so maybe he can help. After losing his first two games as Toronto's manager (1-0 and 6-3 at Pittsburgh), Gaston has led the Blue Jays to THREE wins in their last four games, as the team has scored 34 runs (8.5 per). Cox and the Braves visit Gaston and the Blue Jays tonight in the Rogers Centre, as interleague play concludes this weekend. The Braves are far from healthy, as outfielders Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz are currently on the DL plus SS Yunel Escobar sat out the team's last game (Wednesday at Milwaukee) and his backup (Omar Infante) strained his hamstring during the game and had to leave the contest. Chipper Jones, who is batting .394, is not ready to return to third base but the Braves are hopeful he can DH this weekend. All in all, it's not a very bright picture for a team that owns MLB's biggest home/away dichotomy this year. The Braves are 28-14 (plus-$974) in Atlanta but a pathetic 11-27 (minus-$1,795). That's a difference of 30 games and $2,770 vs the moneyline, a discrepancy larger than any team in MLB in '08. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound for Atlanta and his blister problems look to be over. He struggled in late May, going a three-start stretch in which he allowed 10 ERs over 15 innings (6.00 ERA). He has not allowed an ER in either of his last two starts (13.2 innings) and with Atlanta winning both games, he's 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA on the season (team is 10-5). I like this guy but let's note that his ERA is 1 1/2 runs higher on the road (3.98) than it is at home (2.49), where he's 5-0 in eight starts (team is 8-0). Dustin McGowan goes for the Jays and after doing little in two seasons for Toronto, made 27 starts last year, going a respectable 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA (team was 13-14). He's gone 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA over his last six starts (team is 4-2), giving him a 6-5 mark with a 4.21 ERA on the season in 16 starts (7-9). However, one can't ignore the fact that he's been terrible on the road (2-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 10 starts / team is 3-7), while pitching extremely well here in Toronto (4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts / team is 4-2). That's no surprise as the Blue Jays went 9-4 (3.27 ERA) in his home starts last year, giving Toronto a two-year 13-6 mark in his home starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.
Larry Ness' 15* Team Mismatch of the Week (41-29 TY / 71.9 percent go-against trend)
My 15* play is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET.
Ubaldo Jimenez contributed nicely for the Rockies during their late season and postseason runs last year. However, he's struggled as badly this year as his team has. His eight strong innings last Saturday vs the Mets gave him his first win in more than two months and some could say that he's looked like a different pitcher recently, as the Rockies have won THREE of his last four starts with Jimenez posting a 2.42 ERA. However, that would be ignoring the fact that all four of those starts were at Coors Field. The Rockies have been just awful on the road this year, going 12-28 (minus-$1,312), a mark that is better than only that of the Braves (11-27 / minus-$1,796). Jimenez is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA in his eight road starts this season, with the Rockies losing all eight games. Almost everyone knows the "Detroit story" this year. The Tigers made major off-season acquisitions and were expected to be one of the AL's strongest teams. However, the Tigers opened the '08 season 0-7 (2-10), leaving them a "major mountain to climb." Climb it they have, though. Detroit has won 14 of its last 18 games since June 7 (10-2 at home during that stretch) and is now just five games back of the first-place White Sox (4 1/2 back of the red-hot Twins) in the AL Central. Starting for Detroit tonight is rookie Eddie Bonine. I saw him in his MLB debut, a TV game vs the Dodgers on June 14, in which he allowed nine hits and six ERs (5.1 IP) but got the win, 12-7. I then went against him in his next outing, last Friday at San Diego (vs Maddux). While the Padres won that game 6-2, Bonine was very solid, lasting seven innings while allowing six hits and only two ERs. Leyland likes his stuff and he may just be right. Anyway, I love the way the Tigers are playing right now and of course the Rockies has been a mess all season on the road. The Rockies dominated right-handed pitching last year (70-49) but it's been a different ball game this year, as they are only 22-39 vs righties, including 9-23 on the road (averaging 3.75 RPG). Bonine should be good enough to hold this lineup in check, while the Tigers will reach Jimenez early and often. Team Mismatch of the Week 15* Det Tigers.
Trev Rogers **TOP RATED** MLB Game of the Year Friday Night!
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -128
RON RAYMOND
5* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK!
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2.5
*Ron Raymond's 5* CFL picks have hit over 70% the last 5 years
5* MLB BEST BET WINNER
Minnesota Twins -125
ATS Lock Arena
3 Units NY/Dallas Over 103
Greg Shaker
Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers
Play: Rangers 2 Units
Note: Based on the Total Line for this one, this game could be very high scoring. There is no doubt that we have 2 throwers that have not performed very well this year. But Myers has been worse and especially in this situation. He has the worst ERA on the staff and is 0 and 6 with a 7.54 ERA in eight road starts this year. The righthander has allowed a major league leading 23 homers, and gave up three last Saturday as he was charged with four runs in 7 2/3 innings in a 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. Texas is the best hitting venue in the American League and the one that allows many Dingers. Brett certainly cannot be looking forward to thowing here. He has never pitched at this park and he will face a very good hitting squad. It is one that is Tagging Righthanders at this Park to the Tune of a .302 Batting average. We do not know at this writing whether Josh Hamiliton will play for the Rangers following being hit last night in the hand in a game with Houston. But this team has plenty of offense without him. While Gabbard has not been very good, he will be throwing at the Phillies weakest hitting posture, as they are hitting lefties at 18 points lower on the road this year with a lot of power coming from the left side of the plate. The Phils are a quality offensive team but are just 3-9 in interleague play, scoring 41 runs, the third worst total in baseball. They have managed a total of 15 runs in their last eight games, losing seven of them. The Phillies were shut out for the second time in that stretch and had three hits Thursday in a 5-0 loss at Oakland. This Park at Arlington is not easy for visitors and never has been. That is especially true for those squads that do not come here often. Perhaps that is why Texas is 8-3 in their last 11 Interleague contests here. Texas Boasts being the 2nd best Money Home Team in all of baseball over the last 12 years, and once again this year, they are in positive territory. The Rangers are simply playing better ball right now, they are where they like to be, and as an added bonus, the weakest thing that they offer, the Bullpen, is performing very well of late with an ERA of just 2.48 over the last 10 played. Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer are scheduled for Saturday's and Sunday's Tilts so this is the best chance for Texas to get a win. I will play the Dog number tonight in hopes that they do.
Anaheim Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Dodgers 2 Units
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins
Play: Twins 2 Units
Arizona Diamondbacks at Florida Marlins
Play: Marlins 2 Units
Note: This is a high line for me to bet, and I considered 1/2 on the Runline. I will play it as is though.
Ethan Law
1/2* UNIT (1%) ON WASHINGON +$115
1/2* UNIT (1%) ON DETROIT -$125
1/2* UNIT (1%) ON DETROIT (-1.5) +$155
ROOT
Chairman- Phillies
Millionaire- Angels
No Limit- Yankees Game 2
Billionaire- Marlins
Bob Balfe
Bluejays -135 over Braves
Savannah Sports
2 Units on Arizona/Florida under 9
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Bonine -130
KBHOOPS
5 units Kansas City -120 **POD**
5 units Detroit Tigers -120
5 units Whitesoxs -120 Posted earlier
4 units Minnesota -120
4 units Florida -125
4 units NY Mets +145 GAME 1 Posted earlier
Tony Karpinski
San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
In their first year without Barry Bonds the Giants are under .500 but are playing good on the road at just a few games under .500 away from AT&T Park. Kevin Correia of the Giants and Dana Eveland of the A's each have 5 losses but Correia is 1-5 where Eveland is even at 5-5. Look for Oakland to take the first game of this second battle of the Bay. Play Oakland
Bob Harvey
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Play: Boston Red Sox
Daisuke Matsuzaka has been Boston’s “stopper” this season, especially on the road. Dice-K is 3-0 away from the friendly confines of Fenway Park, posting a rock solid 2.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his five road starts and has struck out 25 in that span. Dice-K should get some major run support from his teammates. The Red Sox will face Houston starting pitcher Runelvys Hernandez, who hasn’t started a MLB contest since 2006. The Red Sox, clinging to a half-game lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East, have won three of four with Dustin Pedroia and Mike Lowell tearing it up. Pedroia is 10-for-18 while Lowell is 8 for his last 15 at bats. Finally, Boston is 51-14 in its last 65 interleague games and 4-1 in Matsuzaka's last five interleague starts. The run line is a safe and prosperous way to go in this one.
3Daily Winners
St Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are 8-2 vs. a starting pitchers like Gil Meche who strikes out five or more batters per start this season.