Steve Janus
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Texas Rangers
The Rangers have some good trends working for them on Friday. They are 5-1 in their last six games after having the previous day off. They are 5-2 in their last 7 games against teams with winning records. Texas is still crushing right-handed pitching, winning 27 of their last 38 against righties. Plus behind today's starter, Vincente Padilla, the Rangers are 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 5 against the AL West and their starter, Jeremy Guthrie is 3-10 when coming off just four days of rest like today.
Ross Benjamin Guaranteed Selections
Washington (Bergmann) @ Cincinnati (Arroyo)
Play On: Washington +135 (15*)
The Washington starter Bergmann enters the game in very good form off of his last 3 starts posting a stellar 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The Reds starter Arroyo enters the game in horrible form off of his last 3 starts posting a 11.48 ERA, a 2.02 WHIP, and allowed 5 home runs in just 13.1 innings. In 3 starts during the day this season Arroyo has posted a very lofty 9.00 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and allowed 5 home runs in just 13.0 innings. In 4 starts versus the Nationals since 2004 Arroyo has posted a very beatable 5.95 ERA. The Reds are just 2-7 in their last 9 at home and 4-11 in their last 15 versus a team with a win percentage of less than .400. Play on the Washington nationals as my MLB 15* Underdog Game of the Week.
Beat your Bookie
100 - Arizona
50 - Atlanta
50 - Tampa Bay
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
The Cubs are struggling right now, but today will be inspired by the return of ace Carlos Zambrano to the rotation. Big Z owns a 17-5 team start record on the road vs. division opponents, not to mention an 11-1 TSR in the month of July. St Louis isn't exactly coming in playing their best ball either as they were trounced 11-1, at home, by the Mets yesterday. The Cubs are 42-19 as favorites this season.
Play on: Chicago Cubs
Ollie's Picks
Red Sox - 130
Brewers - 200
Tom Freese
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Chicago is 12-4 their last 16 games when playing Game 1 of a series and they are 41-16 their last 57 games as favorites. The Cubs are 38-18 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 30-13 the last 43 road starts made by Carlos Zambrano. St. Louis is just 2-7 with Braden Looper on the mound vs. winning teams and they are 2-6 their last 8 home games vs. teams with a losing road record. The Redbirds are 0-8 in the last 8 starts made by Carlos Zambrano vs. them and they are 5-11 their last 16 games vs. the Cubs. PLAY ON CHICAGO w/Zambrano
Oddswiz
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
We got almost exactly what we expected last night in the Yankee/Bosox game. Pettitte got shelled but unfortunately, the Yanks never got to Lester. We actually used the Bosox and Over as Premium plays last night ending up with a split and enough profit to buy about 2 gallons of gas. We mentioned yesterday that the dog in the series is always worth a look. Beckett against Rasner might appear to be a mismatch, but there's really no such thing as a mismatch when these two hook up. Rasner has been banged around a bit, but he is 3-1 at home this year with a 2.08 era.
Chicago Cubs vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Another "division home dog" today is the Cards. At first glance the Cubs would seem to have the pitching edge with Zambrano over Looper but we catch Zambrano coming off the DL and there are legitimate question marks. Before going on the DL he was 0-3 his last 3 starts with an era of 5.75. So, maybe we catch a rusty Zambrano. Or, even better, perhaps there's more to the shoulder injury than we know. The Cubs have won just two of their last 10 road games but have had the Cards number in general, going 11-5 against the Cards their last 16 games
Marc Lawrence Fan Appreciation Game Of The Week Top Play!
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
The red-hot White Sox send Mark Buerhle to the hill against Joe Blanton and the A's in a matchup of two hurlers with opposite home-road dichotomies. That's confirmed by Buerhle's 2.96 home ERA as opposed to his 4.43 road ERA this season. On the flip side, Blanton owns a 6.75 ERA away from home compared to a 4.32 ERA at home this year. With Blanton 0-5 in his last five starts in July and 2-11 with a 5.00 ERA under the nights at lights this season, look for the A's to dip to 1-6 in their last seven away games against southpaws here tonight.
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection
DOUBLEHEADER TODAY!
Chicago White Sox -1.5 Runline +133
Arizona-1.5 Runline +110
MRD Sports
Triple Dime Release: NYY/BOS over 9.5
EZWINNERS
CFL
1 STAR: (406) MONTREAL (PICK) over winnipeg
(Risking $110 to win $100)
MLB
3 STAR: (971) TEXAS (+$118) over Baltimore
(Listing Padilla only) (Risking $300 to win $354)
2 STAR: (967) BOSTON (-$119) over NY Yankees
(Listing Beckett only) (Risking $238 to win $200)
2 STAR: (955) LA DODGERS (-$107) over San Francisco
(Listing Lowe only) (Risking $214 to win $200)
2 STAR: (957) NY METS (-$134) over Philadelphia
(Listing Santana only) (Risking $268 to win $200)
DAVE MALINSKY
6* NY Yankee/Boston Red Sox Under 9.5
6* LA Dodgers/SF Giants Under 7
3* TB -155
Bob Balfe
Whitesox -155 over A's
Buehrle/Blanton
Ben Burns
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
In order to get it's season moving in the right direction, often a struggling team just needs to have something "extra special" to happen to it. I'd say yesterday's ninth inning fits that description for the Diamondbacks. After jumping out to an early lead in the NL West, the Diamondbacks had fallen on hard times recently. In fact, after losing a game that they easily could have won on Wednesday, they fell to just 3-9 their previous dozen games and dipped below the 500 mark for the first time since Opening Week. The Diamondbacks appeared headed towards another loss yesterday, as they trailed 5-0 entering the bottom of the 9th inning. That's when the magic started. Indeed, the D-Bax managed to score six runs without even recording an out. The game would have been a tough one to lose, as Brandon Webb had started and they're "supposed" to win the games which he starts. Instead of another painful defeat, the D-Bax are now back to the 500 mark and coming off a momentum-building win.
Even without the 'momentum' in their favor, the D-Bax were already going to have a major advantage on the mound for tonight's game. San Diego sends Cha Seung Baek to the hill. The converted reliever comes off back to back losses, allowing 10 combined runs in 11 1/3 innings. He's now 0-4 in six starts, with an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.516 WHIP. On the other hand, Haren enters tonight's game with an 8-4 record with an excellent 2.85 ERA and 0.976 WHIP. He's been at his best at home, too. Indeed, he's 7-1 in nine starts here, recording an outstanding 2.41 ERA and 0.922 WHIP in those games. most recently an 11-1 win over Oakland, his former team. Including that result, Haren has an amazing 0.43 ERA his last three starts. (Baek has a 6.38 ERA over his last three!) It's also worth noting that Haren has been excellent in three career starts against the Padres. In those games, he had a stellar 1.42, most recently tossing seven shutout innings, en route to a 9-0 win, back in April. His teams won those games by a combined score of 18-6.
Not that he generally needs much help but Haren has the better bullpen backing him up. The Diamondbacks relievers have a combined 3.61 ERA and 1.247 WHIP. Despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park, the Padres releivers have a 4.22 ERA and 1.371 WHIP. Take them out of Petco park and those numbers get worse. In fact, in 118+ road innings, they San Diego relievers have a poor 4.64 ERA and 1.504 WHIP.
The Diamondbacks also figure to have the advantage in the hitting department. Including yesterday's win, they're now averaging 5.2 runs per game at home on the season, hitting for a .281 average in those games. On the other hand, the Padres are batting .251 on the road, averaging only 3.8 runs per game. The Padres have been at their worst underneath the lights, too. In 61 night games, they've gone 21-40 (-22.9!) averaging only 3.5 runs per game while hitting .247.
Yes, at first glance the line is a little on the steep side - the reason that this isn't a "guaranteed" selection. However, with the Diamondbacks enjoying several significant advantages (pitching, hitting, homefield, momentum etc) I feel that the price is justified and I look for Haren to continue his dominance in this park and against this opponent. Consider laying the price with ARIZONA
Terron Chapman
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox
The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox will continue their weekend series this afternoon with a holiday matinee. The Red Sox took game 1 last night as a pup 7-0 and find themselves in pretty good position to take control of the series and put more distance between them and their hated rivals from the Bronx.
The Sox hope Josh Beckett can continue his strong pitching this year against the pinstripes this afternoon. Beckett is 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA in two starts against the Yanks this season. He has been the victim of poor run support recently as the Sox have scored only three runs in his last two starts but that could change this afternoon.
The Sox exploded for seven runs last night, four off of starter Andy Pettite in just the first two innings. Expect them to have a good showing at the plate this afternoon with Yanks starter Darrell Rasner taking the hill. Rasner won his first three meetings to start the season, but has gone 1-6 in his seven starts since. This will be his first appearance against the Sox.
It may take more than a closed door meeting to get the Yanks bats swinging today. They have scored just four runs in their last four losses and their best player, Alex Rodriguez is just 5-25 against Boston this season. The Yanks are just 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home pup.Play on the Boston Red Sox for 1 unit.