Stevie Y
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox
Can You Say "Josh Beckett" gang & a smooth 3.65 ERA overall & a 2-1 mark with a 2.45 ERA in his last 6 starts. Josh is also 7-4 with a 4.74 ERA in his career vs the Yanks, including a sparkling 3-0 mark with 2.90 ERA in his last 3 starts.let's fade Darrel Rasner & the Yankees and after a 3-0 start with a 1.89 ERA in his first 3 games of the season, he has gone just 1-6 with a 5.68 ERA in his his last 7 starts. look @ that .392 OPB and a 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Too many baserunners to give the Sox. The Boston offense scores just 4.4 rpg on the road, but they have hit .286 with a .381 OBP, while scoring 4.9 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they put 5.5 rpg on the board in day games, hitting .302 in the process. The Yanks put 18 runs on the board vs Texas a few days ago, but they have only put up 7 total runs in the 4 games before that one and the one game after. Boston early boys
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
CHI White Sox
MIN Twins
Free picks
NY Mets
MIL Brewers
WAS vs. CIN Under
LARRY NESS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
"They're both ready to go," manage Joe Torre said. The "they" Torre is referring to are Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones, who will be activated from the DL on Friday. Garciaparra has been on the DL since April 26 with a strained left calf, while Jones has been on the DL since May 25 with a right knee injury. However, I'm not sure why Torre is so excited? Garciaparra has hit .226 in nine games this year (1 HR / 5 RBI) and will be asked to fill in at shortstop for Furcal. However, he has not played shortstop since August of 2005 with the Chicago Cubs. As for Jones, when he went on the DL, he was hitting .165 (43 games) with just two HRs, seven RBI and 45 strikeouts! The Dodgers and Giants both average 4.09 RPG (two of MLB's lowest scoring teams) and in the pitching matchup (Lowe vs Sanchez), I'll back the red-hot Sanchez over the inconsistent Lowe. Since a poor start at Pittsburgh on May 6 (4.1 IP / 7 ERs), Sanchez has allowed three ERs or less NINE times, with the Giants winning EIGHT of his 10 starts. They've won SIX of his last seven starts, with him allowing two ERs or less five times. If you were to throw out his June 12 start at Colorado, a 10-7 San Francisco win in which Sanchez allowed seven ERs, his ERA in the other six games is 1.96. The Giants are 13-4 in his starts this year and at plus-$1,232 vs the moneyline, Sanchez is MLB's second-biggest "money-maker." As for Lowe, he's blown hot and cold all season. He never allowed more than three ERs in any of his first six starts in '08 (LA went 5-1) but then allowed 22 ERs in 21.1 innings over his next four starts (9.28 ERA). He got back on track beginning on May 23, as he's allowed three ERs or less in seven of his last eight starts. However, the Dodgers have dropped three of his last four starts, scoring just one run in the three losses. LA will have trouble getting to Sanchez this afternoon (Dodgers are 10-18 in day games this year, averaging 3.0 RPG), as Lowe will again find himself looking for but not getting, offensive support. Take the Giants.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Pick: Pittsburgh +183
What has happened to Tom Gorzelanny? His ERA is well into the 6's. He has been closer to his true self lately, as his last six starts have seen him allow no more than four runs. After a quick start Ben Sheets has been a bit more ordinary. The Brewers have posted wins in just six of his last 11 starts, and two of those by the slimmest of margins - one run. The Pirates also got a lift offensively by beating Edinson Volquez on the road while scoring 15 runs in their last two games. We will take the long odds with value here and back the Pirates.
Jeff Bonds
2* NATIONALS
Jeff Benton
Josh Beckett is a stud, we know this, and he’s been pitching his tail off recently (1.64 ERA in his last three starts), but the Red Sox ace doesn’t have much to show for his efforts. Boston last his two most recent starts (2-1 at home to Arizona; 3-2 at Houston); they’re 1-3 in his last four outings; and they’re only 8-7 in his 15 starts this season, including 4-5 on the road. So why are the struggling Sox such a big favorite in this one? Mostly because New York rookie right-hander Darrell Rasner has come crashing back to earth – the kid has gone four straight starts without a quality outings, and New York is 1-6 in his last seven starts.
However, Rasner wasn’t that bad against the Mets on Sunday, giving up just two runs in five innings of a 3-1 loss. Also, Rasner has been dynamite at Yankee Stadium this year, going 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts – the only defeat being a 2-1 setback to the Royals. Throw in Beckett’s 5.87 career ERA against the Yankees (5.90 in five starts at the Stadium), and I’ll look for the Bombers to bounce back from Thursday's ugly 7-0 loss to the BoSox.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jake Timlin
Milwaukee Brewers -1 1/2 Runs
Looking to erase their tough loser on Thursday I look for the Brewers to roll big time minus the Run Line today. After all thanks to being back home where they have been a big money maker posting a 25-13 season record as Milwaukee has won their last 6 at home it’s the Brewers who hold all of the advantages today. You see what today comes down to is pitching where Milwaukee with Sheets who is 9-2 with a sub 3 ERA has a huge edge over the Pirates who counter with Gorzelanny who has been awful on the road this year going 1-5 with a road ERA of 8.63. Flat out Milwaukee is going to be on a mission to forget about their ninth inning collapse in the desert yesterday and due to that look for the Brewers to destroy the weak traveling Pirates.
All Milwaukee
Tony Weston
Baltimore Orioles will get over on the Texas Rangers.
Over their last 19 games the Orioles are a modest 11-8, but are 7-3 at home in that stretch. They’re 8-3 their last 11 home games and are an impressive 24-13 at home this season. But the difference for Baltimore tonight will be starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie, who is only 4-7 this season, but has an impressive 3.50 ERA.
Over Guthrie’s last six starts he’s 2-1 with three no decisions and the Orioles are 4-2. He also has a 3.25 home ERA this season in eight starts in front of the home crowd.
Opposite Guthrie will be Rangers starting pitcher Vicente Padilla, who has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 31 innings of work as Texas is only 3-2 in that stretch.
Padilla has been giving up a lot of earned runs and a lot of home runs (eight in that five game stretch) and he’ll get lit up again tonight.
Pencil in Guthrie as your starting pitcher and take Baltimore at home.
3♦ ORIOLES
Smooth44
WAS *POD*
PIT
KC
HOU
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Washington / Cincinnati Over 9.5
ROBERT FERRINGO
5-Unit Play. Take Over 10.0 Florida at Colorado
Note: This is our Total of the Week.
Let's start at the beginning. First, this is the third day in a row that the Rockies are facing a left-handed pitcher. Scott Olsen is not going to show them anything they haven't already seen. Olsen has a 6.76 ERA in his last four road starts and he's facing a team that is No. 6 in the league at hitting southpaws. Florida, on the other hand, hits much better against righties and should have some fun with young, erratic Greg Reynolds. I like Reynolds. He has some good stuff and will be a solid starter in this league. But he's had some walk issues and he?ll be dealing with an up with a tight, tight zone. Chad Fairchild is as tight as they come and five of his last six games have gone over. However, his last game went under and only once this year has he posted two straight unders, and that's through nearly 20 trials. Fairchild doesn't seem to like soft-tossing lefties, either. He's done 11 games with at least one lefty starter (discounting one C.C. Sabathia start that went over) and yielded an average of 8.8 walks and 12.5 runs. He is also 8-4 overall in games started by at least one lefty.
Florida is an over team. They have been all year. Every meaningful trend on this team screams over. That's 35-16-6 overall, 35-17-7 on the road, 7-2 in Olsen's last nine starts, 20-7-2 in his last 29 road starts, 16-6-4 against a righty starter, 16-5-3 against totals in this range, 19-7-5 as a road dog, 21-7-2 against a starter with a WHIP over 1.30, etc., etc. Colorado has been an under team. And that?s the only reason this play isn't a 6-Unit Total of the Month or 7-Unit Total of the Year.
We have a nice light breeze out. And hopefully the humidor is broken. The fans want fireworks on the 4th of July. Here?s to hoping that they get them lots of them in a vintage, high-scoring Coors Field game
2.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-130) over Cleveland
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
1.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-160) over Oakland
1.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (+120) over Baltimore
1.5-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (+110) over Chicago Cubs
1.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (-1.5, +120) over Houston
1.5-Unit Play. Take Florida (+115) over Colorado
Greg Shaker
2 Units Brewers -1.5
2 Units Yankees
2 Units Indians
2 Units Mets -1.5
2 Units Cardinals
Kingmaker
1.5 Unit Red Sox
1 Unit Sea/Det Over
1 Unit Sea Team Total Over 4 Runs
Ben Burns
4* Baltimore Orioles
Jeff Scott Top Play
4 Units Twins