Mr A
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
The struggling Padres have lost nine of their last 10 games, 1-6 on the road and six of its last eight versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks have dropped nine of their last 13 games, but have won four of its last 6 at home.
San Diego's Cha Seung Baek (1-3, 5.46) is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander has never faced Arizona.
Arizona's Dan Haren is 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA. in four career outings, including three starts against the Padres. The Diamondbacks have won five of Haren's last 6 starts and seven of his last 9 at home.
Take the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The Padres have been an awful road team, just 12-27 away from home this season and will face right-hander Dan Haren, who is 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA at home this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks - 210
GINA
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
The Twins have won 13 of their last 15 games overall and 10 of its last 12 at the Metrodome. Meanwhile, the Indians have lost five straight and four of its last 5 on the road.Minnesota will send right-hander Livan Hernandez (8-5, 5.22 ERA) to the hill. Hernandez is 2-1 with 2.57 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed seven runs on 12 hits in a 12-2, defeat in his only career start against the Indians at Jacobs Field on June 12. Cleveland counters with Paul Byrd (3-9, 5.26 ERA), who has lost his last four starts. Byrd is 10-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 18 career starts against Minnesota The Indians and Byrd have been successful against the Twins, winning ten of the last 13 meetings and five of the last 7 in Minnesota. However, the Indians presently are playing poorly and so is Paul Byrd. Cleveland has lost the right-hander’s last 4 starts, and eight of his last 9 on the road. Go with the hot Twins. Minnesota is 8-2 in Hernandez’s last 10 home starts.
Minnesota Twins -135
LT Profits
New York Yankees +110
There is a lot of negativity surrounding the New York Yankees these days, and deservedly so, but you may never see them cast as home underdogs the rest of this season, so we feel compelled to go for the value today vs. the Boston Red Sox.
Besides, while Josh Beckett is regaining his great form, Yankee Stadium has never been one of his favorite stopping grounds since he wrapped up the World Series for the Florida Marlins here way back when. Becket has a robust 6.55 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his last four starts in the Bronx, covering 22 innings.
Granted, Darrell Rasner has been brutal lately, but all of his bad starts have come on the road. Believe it or nit, he had a 2.08 ERA and an excellent 1.08 WHIP in four home starts. For comparative purposes, Beckett has a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road. It may also help that Rasner has never faced Boston before.
Finally, the Red Sox won the series opener here last night, and it is getting to the point in the season now where the Yankees could ill afford to fall much further behind their bitter division rivals.
Pick: Yankees +110
Los Angeles Dodgers -105
The Los Angeles Dodgers have suddenly won three straight games on the road, and we look for them to continue that streak with the hot Derek Lowe on the hill today when they visit the San Francisco Giants.
Lowe has reeled off seven Quality Starts in his last eight outings, and he is coming off of a very unlucky 1-0 loss to John Lackey and the Angels where he allowed just five hits in seven innings. Lowe also has an impressive streak if six consecutive Quality Starts vs. San Francisco, including one start this season where he allowed two runs in six innings. He is supported by a Dodgers bullpen that is second in the National League with a 3.04 pen ERA.
Now Jonathan Sanchez has also pitched well in his last three starts, but he seems to bet getting too much respect that this price for a pitched with a limited track record of success and one that is still just 5-8 this season. Plus the Giants bullpen has been unreliable with a collective 4.17 ERA.
All things considered, this seems like a cheap price for the better team with a proven starter and the better bullpen.
Pick: Dodgers -105
GOLDEN CONTENDER
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Under 8½
For the 4th of july the free pick is on the under in the atlanta-houston game.interesting stats for this game includethe astros under 9 out of 10 times as a road dog to+150.For the braves thye are 9-27 under vs sub 500 opponents and 2-10 under on fridays. pitching for the braves is tim hudson.In his home team starts he is 6-2 with a 2.24 era and oppnents are hitting .224 on the season against him.The astros send brian moehler to the hill know in he is in fine current form with a 1.47 era in his last 3 starts,and an overall 2.95 road era. stay under the total for your comp winner.
WINNERS EDGE
SAN FRAN GIANTS -110, 2 UNITS
NY YANKEES +110 , 2 UNITS
HOUSTON ASTROS + 165 , 1 UNIT
Mike Handzelek
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Pick: Boston Red Sox : Pennant-Push Game Of The Day
Take the Red Sox as they've been streaking of late. However, the streak will now be going in the winning direction. Boston has more than ruled on grass going 56-24. Red Sox are 23-9 with total between 9.0 & 10.5. Boston 39-17 as a favorite between -110 & -150. Boston is 18-11 in Game 2's & NY is 13-15. Beckett has a solid Whip his last 3 games @ 1.09 while Rasner has a ballooning 1.93! Beckett is a perfect 3-0 vs. NY & 10-2 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. He is also 21-7 vs. winning teams & a perfect 4-0 on Fridays. The Yankees are 1-6 as a home dog 7 0-5 as a home dog of +110 to +150. Rasner is 0-5 with total 9.0 to 10.5 & also 0-5 off of 4 days rest. Whether NY's back is against the wall or not, the Red Sox are still the class of the division.
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Over Rare O/U : Play Of The Month
Take the Over here as the A's Blanton has been hit around of late & the Over is 6-2 when Blanton is found in a dog role. When Blanton takes to the road, the Over is a solid 9-4. The Over is 24-7 when the White Sox are home favorites of -151 to -200. When Buehrle is a home favorite in that price range, the Over is 4-0! When Buehrle is @ home vs. winning teams, the Over is 7-2. Grab The Over as our O/U Play Of The Month.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. LAA Angels
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays : Live Dog Of The Board
Take the Blue Jays as they've rocked RHP of late going 5-2. In comparison, Toronto is hitting .320 the last 10 games vs. RHP while we see the hometown Angels hitting just .225 vs. RHP their last 10. Burnett is 7-3 after the Blue Jays score 2 or less. A major plus this evening is the performance of the LA Angels pen @ home. Their ERA @ home is 5.01! The Angels have been more than rusty coming off an idle day to go 3-10. Weaver has come back off a Quality Start to pitch to a record of 1-5. If you're asking how Weaver shoots out in opening Game 1's for the Angels, the answer is 0-7! The dog is "a barking loud" on the west coast tonight with Toronto now 6-4 their L10.
Jeff Hochman
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox : Jeff's Top-rated 10* MLB Game of the Month
10*Chicago White Sox (Blanton/Buehrle) Mark Buehrle has faced Oakland once this year and pitched far too well to have earned the loss. He allowed two earned runs in seven innings and exited the game trailing 2-1.
Mark Buehrle is 24-17 with a 3.35 ERA at US Cellular Field since 2005. Have you seen his career numbers lately? Mark is 113-81 with a 3.80 ERA as you read this. I love him off a team loss too. Joe Blanton is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this year and just 20-19 with a 4.98 ERA since 2005. Batters are hitting a robust .292 against him.
Chris James Sports Afternoon Play
2* Boston Red Sox
Comp Play (5-0 L5)
Rangers/Orioles Under
This 4th of July afternoon is when the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles will meet in Game 1 of their 3 game series. The Orioles send Jeremy Guthrie to the mound today who has a 3.50 ERA so far this year. He has an ERA of 2.57 in his last three starts. Guthrie is only allowing an average of 8.1 hits/walks per 9 innings which is pretty good these days. The Under is 4-1-1 in Guthrie's last 6 starts as a favorite and the Under is 9-2-1 in his last 12 home starts where the total is set between 9-10.5! The Rangers counter with Vicente Padilla who is 10-4 on the year with a 4.13 ERA. Padilla is only allowing 9.9 hits/walks per nine innings. The Under is 9-4-1 in the Rangers last 14 games overall. The last 4 meetings between these two teams have gone under the posted total. I expect it to be a 5th straight time today as these two pitchers allow very few base runners and the bullpens should be able to keep them in check! My free play today is the Rangers/Orioles Under.
SEABASS
20 – Dodgers under
20 – Red sox under
20 – Mets under
20 – Baltimore
20 – Seattle
50 – BC (CFL)
VEGAS RUNNER
PHI (+129) vs NYM 1* ML WAGER
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL RUN LINE WINNER
Milwaukee w/Sheets -1.5 +100
LT Profits
2* Nationals/Reds under 9.5
Fairway Jay
5* Dodgers/Giants Under 7.5
3* KC Royals
DAVE MALINSKY
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Over 4*
The early Holiday marketplace has been kind to us on this one - they can not quite pull it all the way down to a ‘9’, but now we can go Over 9.5 at no vigorish, and can even take a few pennies in some spots, That is outstanding value in a game in which the hitters will get good swings throughout.
Where do we start? Minnesota tagged Paul Byrd three starts back, knocking him out after just three innings, and that was at home, where he has worked to a 3.40 tune this season. Now he takes to the road with that 1-7/6.89 as a visiting moundsman anchoring him down, and it should only get worse here. Why did the Twins rack him? Partially because just about everybody is these days, but also because they pack so much left-handed punch. Lefties are mashing him to an awful .330 so far, with 13 home runs in only 182 at-bats, and this has nothing to do with being a small sample - they also hit him to a .322 tune LY, and .369 in 2006. As his career declines, getting left-handers out has become an insurmountable challenge. It means another early exit, and then a parade of struggling Cleveland relievers the rest of the way, with Eric Wedge now reduced to a “Closer by Committee” challenge, should that role be needed.
Wedge may need a closer because his team will score. The Indians battered Livan Hernandez for seven runs on 12 hits over just three innings at Cleveland four starts back, showing that they could read his limited stuff on the first look. That is significant, because if Hernandez can not fool you, he will not get you out. He did manage to hold down punchless Kansas City on a 2nd look on a cold day back in early April, but since then three teams have had a return go-round, including those Royals, and here is the dismal count - 15.1 innings, 21 runs (18 earned), 31 hits. It is one thing for a WHIP to top 2.00 for a stretch of three games or longer, but yet another when it is merely HIP. For this season his ratio of Hits to Strikeouts is 157-39, a most awkward place to be on the historical baseball charts. It shows that a lot of contact is being allowed, and that the more hitters see him, the better the contact is.
With the prospects of big early innings from both teams, this is a most fair price range for us to work with.
Keith Martin Computer Plays
Top Play
Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 5
Medium Play
Arizona D-backs (-1.5 +113.0) 3
Regular Plays
New York Yankees (M: 110.0)
Boston Red Sox Under 9.5
Washington Nationals Under 9.5
Seattle Mariners (M: -138.0)
Baltimore Orioles (M: -126.0)
Chicago White Sox (M: -154.0)
Minnesota Twins (M: -129.0)
Arizona D-backs (M: -196.0)
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.0
Kansas City Royals Under 9.0
Oakland Athletics Under 8.5
Houston Astros Under 8.5
Florida Marlins Under 10.5
Yesterday 7-7 -3.3
Last 7 Days 39-17 +34.2