Matty O'Shea
On the 4th of July, we're going back to the well for one of my favorite plays over the last couple seasons - backing Boston ace Josh Beckett on the runline.The reasoning behind this is quite simple: In the last 35 wins for the Red Sox with Beckett on the mound dating back to 2006, 32 have been decided by 2 runs or more (91%).Let's just say I like those odds
Oscarxena Sports
Kansas City +1.52 (3 Unit Play)
The Royals take on the surprising Rays today in Tampa Bay where Tampa Bay has been nearly unbeatable but I am going to take a shot on the gutty Royals here. Brian Bannister will take the mound for the Royals and he is having a tough year so far but in his one career start last year against Tampa Bay he won the game and recorded a 1.13 ERA and had a 0.25 WHIP. Meanwhile Tampa Bay will have Edwin Jackson on the mound and his stats aren't much better than Bannister's this year and in his one start last year against Kansas City he was pounded in losing the game and recording a 16.22 ERA and a 3.003 WHIP. Tampa Bay is off of an emotional series against Boston and placed their starting shortstop Bartlett on the DL and the Royals just continue to hit. Worth a shot on this big dog here today for me.
Cleveland +1.26 (4 Unit Play)
I am riding some ugly pigs today but although it is hard to say I like the Indians and Paul Byrd today. Byrd has been awful this year as the Indians are only 4-12 in his starts and he has allowed 21 home run balls so far this year but the Twins are not a big home run hitting club and depend on team speed and defense to win. Byrd has been very good against the Twins in his career going 10-4 against them and recording a 3.94 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. The Twins will respond today with their own gas can in Livan Hernandez who has a 5.22 ERA on the year and has allowed a whopping 157 hits in only 110 1/3 innings of work and a 1.60 WHIP. Hernandez has a 8.10 ERA in his career against Cleveland and a 2.22 WHIP. The Indians GM and management met yesterday to discuss the state of their team and I am sure that changes are coming but I like their chances tonight.
Baltimore -1.22 (2.5 Unit Play) & Baltimore -1 1/2 Runs +1.67 (1.5 Unit Play)
The Orioles are off of a tough loss last night as they blew a big lead and dropped the game to Kansas City but have Jeremy Guthrie on the mound tonight. Guthrie is a pitcher that not a lot of people know about but he has great stuff and has been a victim this year of a lack of run support. Guthrie has a 3.50 ERA overall this year in 115 2/3 innings of work and a 1.20 WHIP. He has pitched once against Texas in his career and did not receive a decision as he recorded a 4.50 ERA in the game with a 1.333 WHIP. Vicente Padilla takes the mound for Texas and the Rangers have been very good with him on the mound as they are 13-4 but in his career against Baltimore Padilla is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.801 WHIP. The Rangers have been winning with Padilla because they are scoring nearly 7 runs per game in his starts but with Guthrie on the mound I don't think they score that today and the Orioles win big.
NY Mets/Philadelphia Over 9 -1.15 (3 Unit Play)
I normally only release three plays but because this is a holiday here is one extra one today. Johan Santana takes the mound for the Mets and he has pitched well against Philadelphia in his career but Philadelphia is a tough place to pitch for all pitchers. The Phillies are counting on J.A. Happ to fill in for Brett Myers as Myers was sent to the minors to work on his mechanics and Happ has some decent stats in Triple A but he has allowed 11 home runs on the year which could cause him some issues tonight in hitter friendly Philadelphia. He started one game last year against New York and was hammered pretty good so the Phillies will know they need to get some runs against Santana tonight in order to compete. I like this to go Over 9
Vernon Croy
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Under 20 Unit MLB Total of the Week
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the O/U is 4-8 for Oakland on the road this season when the posted total is 8 to 8.5. Oakland has struggled against lefty starters this season averaging just 3.6 rpg and the O/U is 9-19 for Oakland when facing a lefty starter. The O/U is 3-6 in Mark Buehrle's (6-6, 3.79 ERA) last 9 starts and the O/U is also 11-20 for the White Sox when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Mark Buehrle (6-6, 3.79 ERA) has pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 1.17 while lasting an average of 7.7 innings per start and I look for him to shut down this Oakland line-up tonight. Take the Under as my MLB Total of the Week and make sure you get on my MLB NL Game of the Week as my long term MLB run continues.
Bob Harvey Sports
San Francisco Giants
Texas Sports Syndicate
Philadelphia Phillies
bestnetpicksperiod
New York Yankees
One Thousand to One Million Dollars
Laa Angels
seeyouinthewinnerscircle
Chicago White Sox
Hollywood Eddie
Milwaukee Brewers
WildBill
Cincinnati Reds
GAMETIMEDECISION
Chicago White Sox
Tippster
Cincinnati Reds
SportsPickStore
Atlanta Braves
Harris Sports
New York Yankees
JEFF MONEY
Mariners
KM Sports Computer Sheet
New York Yankees
Root
Chairman - W.Sox
Mill - St Louis
Moneymaker - LA Dodgers
Bob Akmens
7* Minnesota Twins
Black Widow Sports
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
1* on Seattle Mariners -138
Detroit is 21-34 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 3 seasons. That’s what the Tigers are facing in Erik Bedard of the Mariners tonight. Bedard is undefeated in his last 3 starts with a 1.84 ERA. Bedard has been brilliant at home, posing a 3-2 record and a 2.30 ERA in seven home starts. Bedard is 10-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons. Bedard is clearly at his best at this time of year and we’ll back him tonight in a home win over the Tigers. Take Seattle on the Money Line.
Info Plays
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
3* on Chicago White Sox -154
The White Sox finally ended their winning streak last night in a one-run loss to the A’s, but they’ll get a new streak started Friday. Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (OAKLAND) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), playing on Friday. This is a 42-8 ML System hitting 84% over the last 5 seasons. Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts. This is a 40-12 ML System hitting 76.9% over the last 5 seasons in favor of the Sox. Bet Chicago at home.
Scott Spreitzer's **GRAND SLAM GAME OF THE YEAR!** (7-2, 78% Run!)
I'm laying the price with the White Sox on Friday night. Chicago had their win streak snapped last night, but are in prime position to begin a new one on the 4th. First of all, Mark Buehrle will be shooting for his 5th straight win. He's been practically untouchable in eight of his last nine starts. In fact, take out the anomaly on May 27, and you'll find that the veteran lefty has allowed just 10 earned runs and 46 hits in the eight strong starts, spanning 58 2/3 innings. That's a nasty 1.53 ERA to go along with a 1.04 WHIP. Buehrle has made seven home night starts in '08, and he's sporting a sparkling 2.96 ERA! I expect great numbers once again, facing an Oakland lineup that's averaged just 3.2 runs per game in six road night tries against southpaws. Overall, the A's are 3-9 in 12 road tilts against lefthanders, scoring an anemic, 2.50 runs per game. That won't be enough to cover Joe Blanton. The Oakland righty has a hefty 6.75 road ERA this season with a BAA approaching .300! He's even worse when those road games are under the lights. In four road night games this season, Blanton has been tagged for a 7.99 ERA! He'll be a sitting duck for a White Sox squad that's 18-7 at home against righthanders, scoring 6.48 runs per game. Game one went to the A's...but game two goes to the "Southsiders" in blowout fashion. My AL Grand Slam GOY is a play on the White Sox on Friday.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* MLB AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR! (80% run with 25* plays)
I'm laying the short price with the Mariners on Friday. Let's toss out a couple of misleading stats right off the bat. First of all, Rogers looks better on paper in his most recent starts than he did when he began the season. While that's true in general, Rogers has been horrible in road day action in 2008. The Tigers have dropped all four of those starts and Rogers has been tapped for an 8.85 ERA. He's lasting less than five innings per road day start and the veteran lefty has allowed an average of 19.6 hits/walks per nine innings pitched. The second misleading stat is the Tigers' offensive numbers against lefties. While they own great stats overall, they're scoring a flat 4 runs per game when those outings have been daytime road tilts. Erik Bedard counters for the home team. He's pitched well, allowing two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. Bedard owns a 2.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .217 BAA in seven starts at SAFECO this season. Finally, while Rogers struggles dramatically in this situation (as mentioned above) Bedard has fared quite well. In three afternoon outings this season, Bedard owns a fantastic 1.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .154 BAA! Combined with Seattle's 6.3 runs per game average against lefties in home day action and we have a great spot for the short fave. My Afternoon Annihilator is a play on Seattle.
Teddy June
5* Private Players Club Selection Colorado Rockies
NSA
20* Minnesota -130
10* Detroit +125
10* Boston -125
10* Angels -125
10* St Louis +115
10* Baltimore -135
Larry Ness' Rivalry Showdown (Cubs/Cards)
My Rivalry Showdown is on the StL Cards at 8:15 ET. The Cubs and Cards own one of MLB's best rivalries and this is an important three-game series, as the Cubs wrap-up a 10-game road trip. Chicago lost 8-3 yesterday in San Francisco, failing to win another road series. After splitting the four-game series with the Giants (who own MLB's worst home record), the Cubs are 2-5 on their current trip, 18-25 on the road this year and have been able to win just THREE of 14 road series in '08. Carlos Zambrano will take the mound, making his first appearance since June 18. He's been on the DL with a right shoulder sprain and manager Lou Piniella is hoping for 85 to 90 pitches from his ace. "If he does well he can pitch six innings for us," Piniella said. Zambrano is 8-3 with a 3.13 ERA on the season in 16 starts (team is 10-6) but was 0-2 with a 5.75 ERA in the three starts prior to him going on the DL. His home ERA is 2.40 this year but his road ERA is 4.08, as in his last two road starts he allowed 13 hits and seven ERs in 6.2 innings in LA vs the Dodgers and seven hits and four ERs in 6.2 innings at Tampa vs the Rays. At 49-38, the Cards have been a big surprise this year but by now it's obvious, St Louis is a pretty good club. Braden Looper gets the start and the converted reliever owns a 2.49 ERA over his last four outings (team is 3-1) and is 9-5 on the year (4.26 ERA). This is his first start vs the Cubs in '08 but last year (in his first season as a starter), he faced the Cubbies four times, allowing only five ERs in 27 innings for a 1.67 ERA. Who knows what to expect from Zambrano but we know the Cubs are a far different team away from Wrigley. While they are 24-7 vs right-handers in the "friendly confines" (averaging 5.5 RPG), they are just 10-18 on the road vs righties, scoring almost two runs per game less (3.7). Looper handled this lineup last year and will do so again here. Rivalry Showdown on the StL Cardinals.
Larry Ness' 15* AL Game of the Week (45-32 with GOW plays since Opening Day)
My 15* play is on the Chi White Sox at 7:05 ET. Javier Vazquez threw a complete game last night, allowing just four hits while striking out 10. However, two of the hits were HRs and the three runs he allowed were enough to end Chicago's seven-game winning streak (nine straight home wins), as Oakland's Justin Duchscherer (MLB's ERA leader) and two relievers held the White Sox to two runs. Don't expect a similar result tonight. The White Sox have won 18 of their last 21 home games and tonight will not be facing Duchscherer, but rather the struggling Joe Blanton. Blanton comes in with a 4-11 mark (4.97 ERA), after going 1-5 with a 7.49 ERA in his last six starts. He's been MLB's biggest loser at home (he's 2-8 and the A's are 3-10 in his 13 home starts) but note that his home ERA is 4.32, compared to his road ERA of 6.75! The White Sox will start lefty Mark Buehrle. Buehrle won 81 games for Chicago in the five-year span of 2001-05 (team won World series in '05) but the last two season has gone just 22-22. He opened the '08 season struggling as well with a 5.81 ERA over his first eight starts (he was 1-5 and the team 2-6). However, in mid-May Buehrle regained his form and over his last nine starts is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA (team is 6-3). He's been nearly unhittable in his last five outings, going 4-0 (team is 4-1) while allowing only five ERs over 39 innings (1.15 ERA!). The clincher in this game is that the A's have really struggled vs lefties on the road this year, going 3-9 while averaging a pathetic 2.5 RPG. By the way, the White Sox are 18-7 at home vs right-handers. AL Game of the Week 15* Chi White Sox.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (18-12 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Indians won 96 games last year and were one win away from a World Series appearance (led Boston 3-1 in the ALCS but lost three straight games). The '08 Indians look NOTHING like last year's team. They open this three-game series with the Twins on a five-game losing streak and in last-place in the AL Central (37-48), 12 games behind the White Sox. The Indians own the AL's worst road record (15-26) and even trail the Royals (who won 69 games in '07) by 1 1/2-games! Paul Byrd takes the mound for Cleveland tonight and one could point to his 10-4 career mark against the Twins, as a reason the Indians are in good shape for this game. I'll even add that he's 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA in 10 starts at the Metrodome against the Twins. However, I'm filing all those things under "old news!" Byrd lasted just three innings vs the Twins in Cleveland on June 11, allowing six runs (five ERs) in an 8-5 loss (his shortest career outing versus Minnesota). That began a four-game slide for him in which he's allowed 28 hits and 18 ERs over 20 innings, for an 8.10 ERA. He's 3-9 with a 5.26 ERA in 16 starts this year (team is 4-12) and that includes a 1-7 mark with a 6.89 ERA in his nine road starts (team is 1-8). It also doesn't help Cleveland's outlook to point out that the team's bullpen owns the second-worst ERA in MLB in '08 at 4.85 and is 0-2 with one blown save (5.52 ERA) during the Indians' current five-game losing streak. Byrd and the Cleveland bullpen will face the red-hot Twins tonight, a team which has gone 15-3 over its last 18 games, averaging 5.94 RPG. The Twins are 31-16 at home in '08, averaging 4.83 RPG. Livan Hernandez gets the start for Minnesota. He opened his first-ever AL season pitching very well, allowing three ERs or less in seven of his first 10 starts in '08 (team went 8-2). However, he's allowed four ERs or more in six of his last eight outings. That being said, he's facing the Indians here, a team which is hitting an AL-low .247(also remember that AL-worst 15-26 road record). Hernandez owns a 4.00 ERA in 10 home starts and that's been good enough for the Twins to go 8-2 in those starts. Las Vegas Insider on the Min Twins.
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL BLOWOUT WINNER
Baltimore w/Guthrie -125
KB Hoops
5 units Minnesota -130 **POD**
5 units Pitt/Milw OVER 8.5
4 units Fla/Colo OVER 10.5
4 units Boston/NYY UNDER 9.5
VEGAS RUNNER
PHI (+129) vs NYM 1* ML WAGER
ARI -1.5 (+110) vs SDP 2* RL WAGER
CWS -1.5 (+130) vs OAK 2* RL WAGER
SEA (-138) vs DET 1* ML WAGER
TOR (+110) vs ANA 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
COL (-130) vs FLA 1* ML WAGER