Scott Spreitzer
My AL East Blowout GOW is a play on the Rays with Shields over Burnett. Home Sweet Home! That's the mantra as far as the Rays are concerned. Tampa Bay started the month of July by winning five of their first six games...all at home. They dropped their final game of the homestand and went on to lose six straight away from home heading into the all-star break. But they're back under the dome tonight where they're 36-14 overall, and 22-6 in night games against righthanders. Tonight, they'll face A.J. Burnett, who has been pounded for 14 earned runs and 24 base runners in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. In fact, the Jays have dropped each of Burnett's last four road outings. James Shields takes the bump for the Rays. Tampa is 6-1 in his home night starts where he sports a 2.25 ERA. They're 9-1 in his 10 home starts overall, and Shields owns a 2.13 ERA, .090 WHIP, and .208 BAA! That makes Shields a perfect "slump-buster" going against a team that doesn't normally win away from home with tonight's scheduled pitcher on the hill. Look for Tampa to snap their skid with a big win on Friday night. The Rays are my AL East Blowout GOW.
Scott Spreitzer's 25* MLB GRAND SLAM WIPEOUT! *11-2, 85% w/ 25* Plays!
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Friday night. It doesn't get much better than this, at least on paper. Kevin Millwood has gone 0-5 in nine starts against the Twinkies in his career. He's been roughed up for a 5.86 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and .333 BAA along the way! Tonight, the veteran righty faces a Twins' batting order that's averaging 5.8 runs per game in 23 home night outings against righthanded hurlers. Millwood's recent performances also don't inspire a lot of confidence in the Texas dugout. He's allowed 16 earned runs and 44 base runners (36 hits) in just 20 1/3 innings. That's a four-game ERA of 7.09 with a horrible, 2.17 WHIP, while averaging just five IP per start. That's bad news for Texas' 29th ranked bullpen! The Twins will send southpaw Glen Perkins to the bump. The Rangers have been at their offensive-worst in tonight's situation. They're 2-8 in 10 road night games against lefties, scoring just 3.1 runs per game. Perkins has to be itching to get back on the bump. His Twins are 5-1 in his last six outings, where he sports a 3.69 ERA & 1.33 WHIP. We don't get a lot of hitting AND pitching mismatches, including bullpens each week, but this is surely one of them! Look for the Twins to rock the Rangers on Friday, my 25* Grand Slam.
FLORIDA BOOKY BUSTERS
Tampa Bay -1.5
TRACE ADAMS
Phillies
JAKE TIMLIN
Marlins
NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER
PHILLIES +105
YOU WIN NOW
Washington +155
DONALD TRAN
New York Mets -115
Jennifer Barry
Pirates +115
Chad Jordan
NY Mets/Cincinnati Over 9
The Super Scout
Seattle Mariners -120
Maddux Sports
Milwaukee -135
lasvegassportsadvisors
Chi White Sox -1.5
JIM'S HOT PICKS
Arizona -1.5
Global Sports Picks
SOX/ANGELS UNDER 8
Mighty Quinn
Phillies
SOUTHSIDE SPORTS
LA ANGELS
ARMVIN SPORTS
DIAMONDBACKS
Insider Sports Report
Philadelphia/Florida UNDER 8.5
JOE WIZ
CUBS
TIGERS
CAPPERS ACCESS
Cubs
W. Sox
MIKE WYNN
Milwaukee -130
RAZOR SHARP
DETROIT/BALTIMORE UNDER
PLATINUM PLAYS
PHILLIES + 105
TOTALS 4 U
TEXAS/MINNESOTA OVER 9
ARTHUR RALPH
MILWAUKEE
HUDDLE UP
LA Dodgers
DARK HORSE
Arizona -110
BIG TIME SPORTS
TIGERS / ORIOLES OVER 9
VEGAS STEAMLINE
CLEVELAND/SEATTLE UNDER
#1 SPORTS
BLUE JAYS + 125
THE SCOUT
St Louis -130
Jeff Saad
Mets/Reds Over
Bob Donahue
Yankees
Paul Leiner
10* Cubs -115
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 8.0
A.J. Burnett of the Toronto Blue Jays is pitching on normal rest after allowing just one run and six hits in 8.1 innings vs. the New York Yankees on Sunday, while James Shields has been at his best this year with extra rest like he has here. Thus, runs should be hard to come by tonight.
Sure, Burnett has been frustratingly erratic throughout his career, as he has some of the best stuff in the majors when he is on yet he cannot seem to be able to get out of his own way. However, he is very capable of going through some unhittable streaks, and that start on Sunday is certainly a step in the right direction.
Remember also that Burnett tossed a gem the last time he pitched in Tampa Bay, allowing one run and three hits with eight strikeouts in eight innings. As improved as the Rays are this season, they still have many young free-swingers in their lineup that Burnett can again take advantage of.
Now Shields has had a full week of rest since getting bombed for five earned runs and 10 hits in six innings by the Cleveland Indians last Friday. However, Shields has posted Quality Starts each of the last three times he has had at least five days of rest, posing a 2.66 ERA and a remarkable 0.89 WHIP over those starts with 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.
Finally, the Under is 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head meetings between these clubs including 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Tampa, and we look for those streaks to get extended tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays, Rays Under 8
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves Under 8.5
Tim Hudson has been his usual self for the Atlanta Braves while Tim Redding could be considered the ace of the Washington Nationals staff right now, and with both offenses erratic as of late, the Under should be the way to go here.
Hudson may be just 9-7, but he has pitched better than that with a 3.13 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 129.1 innings, and he has been at his best pitching at home. Hudson is 7-1 with a 2.13 ERA in nine home starts, and he has been an absolute beast against the Nationals, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last 10 starts against them, including allowing three earned runs in three starts covering 21.2 innings vs. Washington this year.
Redding has incredibly managed to go 7-3 while pitching for a team that is 24 games under .500 (36-60), and the Nationals as a team are an amazing 15-5 in all games that he has started. He has a decent 3.85 ERA for the season and an excellent 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, and he has allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts vs. Atlanta.
The Braves have played the most Unders in baseball this year at 61-31-3, and that should continue here.
Pick: Nationals, Braves Under 8.5
BEN BURNS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays were the best team in the American League for much of the first half. A 7-game losing streak, prior to the break, saw them fall out of first place though. They desperately want to start the second half on a winning note and this evening's pitching matchup offers them a solid chance to do so.
A.J. Burnett showed that he is still capable of dominating in his last start. Pitching on three day's rest, he limited the Yankees to one run through 8 1/3 innings, recording eight K's to just one walk. Burnett hasn't been consistent though. In his previous start, he allowed seven runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. Baltimore. Burnett was also roughed up in his most recent road start, allowing 12 hits and eight runs (six earned) in a 8-2 loss at LA. Including that start, Burnett is 3-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.326 WHIP on the road.
James Shields has also struggled on the road, most recently losing 5-0 at Cleveland. However, he's been downright dominant here in Florida. In 10 home starts, he's gone 5-1 with an outstanding 2.13 ERA and 0.903 WHIP. He averaged greater than seven innings per start in those games and the Rays were 9-1.
The Jays are 0-4 the last four times that Burnett started against the Rays. In his two most recent starts in this series, Burnett allowed 12 runs in 11 1/3 innings. Conversely, the Rays are a perfect 4-0 when Shields has started against the Jays. During that stretch, Shields was 3-0 with an excellent 2.70 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. For the season, the Jays are 20-28 on the road, while the Rays are 36-14 at home. Consider a play on TAMPA
Rocky Atkinson
Texas @ Minnesota
Play On: 3* Minnesota -125
Minnesota is 38-26 at night this year. Minnesota is 11-4 when playing on Friday this year. Texas is scoring only 4.6 runs per game against left handed starters this season. Minnesota bullpen has a SUPER 1.99 ERA at home this year. Perkins is 6-2 overall this year and 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA his last 3 starts. Millwood is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. Perkins is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA overall vs Texas since 1997. We'll play Minnesota for 3 units tonight!
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on L.A. Dodgers -115
I’m not about to bet against the Dodgers tonight with the way Hiroki Kuroda has been throwing the ball as of late. Instead, I’ll ride L.A. to a victory as my free play today. Kuroda is 2-0 with a miniscule 1.19 ERA through his last three starts. He has recently pitched a pair of Complete Games for the Dodgers and another could be in store tonight. The Dodgers are 19-7 against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. The Dodgers are 53-24 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 15-7 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Cash in with L.A. as the favorite.
Tony Karpinski
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
We do not like the way the Detroit Tigers finished up before the break folks. There was a time where the Tigers had finally got it going. They came all the way back to become .500 and above. You have to remember the Tigers started out atrocious but as we said they played good ball for a long time. The Tigers had a very important home series to close out the break. They had a four game set against the Twins. This wasn’t just any four game series folks. This was a series against a rival that they are chasing. They needed this series. At worst they needed a home split and get out of there. Detroit lost the series in tough fashion. The Tigers lost the first three games all by one run. The Baltimore Orioles are a very good home baseball team folks. The Orioles are 25-17 in their building and are rested and ready to go. Look for the Baltimore to win game 2 of this series. Play on Baltimore
Stevie Y
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Over
Just look how bad Ian Snell has been boys, 3-8 with a 6.18 ERA, a 1.91 WHIP , oppoising teams also have a .334 batting average against. He is 6th in the NL in walks with 55. & away from PNC field this year he is a 1-5 with an ERA of 8.14 and a batting average against of .352.In his last 3 outings he has allowed 17 hits and 10 walks in 12.2 innings, for an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.213. Pitt Pirates crank out the OVER on a 31-12 spot, grab the over tonight in Denver boys
Info Plays
3* on Rangers/Twins OVER 9.5
This is a very low total for two teams that will get the bats going tonight. Kevin Millwood and Glen Perkins are two below average starters that will get lit up Friday. Minnesota is 11-1 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start this season. The Twins are 13-3 OVER vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season. Texas is 21-4 OVER against AL Central opponents this season. Minnesota is 10-3 OVER against AL West opponents this season. These teams get the bats going when they face each other. Bet the OVER 9.5 runs.
Jason Lowry
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago Cubs
We like the Cubs to get going right away after the all-star break as they should easily take care of business against the Astros. The Cubs are 19-5 against the money line after 4 or more consecutive home games this season, and 31-17 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. Take the Cubs in this one!
Dustin Hawkins
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Chicago Cubs
Can the Cubs start off the second half as hot as they were they first half? They will need to get wins when Lilly pitches and that starts with the bats getting hot!! The Astos are a up and down team, just hope you dont catch them when they are up!!! Cubs win a close on 5-3 !!!
John Martin
1 Unit on L.A. Dodgers -115
I’m not about to bet against the Dodgers tonight with the way Hiroki Kuroda has been throwing the ball as of late. Instead, I’ll ride L.A. to a victory as my free play today. Kuroda is 2-0 with a miniscule 1.19 ERA through his last three starts. He has recently pitched a pair of Complete Games for the Dodgers and another could be in store tonight. The Dodgers are 19-7 against the money line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. The Dodgers are 53-24 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 15-7 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Cash in with L.A. as the favorite.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +126
Cleveland was playing team baseball right before the All-Star Break and that trend will continue with a road win over the Mariners tonight. The Indians swept the Tampa Bay Rays in four games, winning each contest by at least 3 runs. Seattle has lost 6 of their last 8 games overall. The Mariners are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Marines are just 2-5 in Felix Hernandez’ last 7 starts as a favorite. The Indians are 5-0 in Aaron Laffey’s last 5 starts vs. American League West. Laffey has what it takes to beat this struggling Mariners’ ball club. Take the Indians as a nice dog here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -120
Jeremy Guthrie is one of the best starters in the American League that not many folks know about. Despite a 5-7 record, Guthrie features a solid 3.49 ERA for the Orioles. Guthrie is 1-0 with a 2.66 ERA through his last 3 starts. He has allowed just 4 hits and 1 earned run through 7 innings in two of those three starts. Detroit is 29-40 against right-handed starters this season. Detroit is 6-17 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. Guthrie leads the Orioles to a win Friday, so make sure your money is on Baltimore as today’s play.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals +146
Zach Greinke is coming off a great start against the White Sox and his confidence will be soaring heading into tonight’s match-up with his AL Central rival. Greinke went 7 strong innings, allowing just 1 earned run in a 4-1 Royals’ win on July 10th just 8 days ago. It all came against the same starter K.C. faces tonight in Mark Buehrle. Greinke is 7-5 with a 3.48 ERA in all starts this year. Buehlre is 3-10 (-8.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. We get Greinke at a great price here coming in with confidence.