Robert Homyak UnderDog Play of the Week 4-1 L5
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Chicago White Sox
Play On - Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season-AL.
(104-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +45.9 units)
Maddux Sports
3 units on Milwaukee -159
3 units on Arizona -130
3 units on Oakland -123
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* ELITE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Toronto w/Parrish -156
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Arizona w/Haren -135
Oscarxena Sports
St. Louis +1.74 (3 Unit Play)
Baseball is a streaky kind of sport and it may be risky to take the Cardinals here tonight as they were just swept by Milwaukee but this price seems awfully high to me for the Mets here tonight. The Mets are off of a highly emotional series against the Philles and although the Cardinals are also off of a highly charged series against Milwaukee they failed while the Mets passed their test. The Mets will have Mike Pelfrey on the mound and he has been pitching well and has some solid home numbers but he was shaky his last time out facing the Reds and I am not sure he should be this large of a favorite against the Cardinals who are 27-22 this year on the road. The Cardinals received pretty good starting pitching in their series with Milwaukee but their bullpen failed them as it has a lot this year. They will hand the ball to Mitchell Boggs who was recalled from the minors but in two starts down in Triple A he went 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and had a 1.08 WHIP. Ironically these two pitchers met a little earlier this season and the Cardinals were a favorite at home and the Mets won easily 11-1 so there seems to have been a big line discrepancy placed here tonight. I think the Cardinals are worth a play here tonight.
San Francisco +1.31 (3 Unit Play)
The Giants are off of a confidence building three game sweep of the Nationals and now take on the division leading Diamondbacks in a key three game series in the NL West. The Giants were expected to be one of the worst teams this year in the major leagues but they have went with a young team and have probably performed better than most expected. They will be taking on tonight perhaps the hottest pitcher in the major leagues tonight in Dan Haren who has been absolutely lights out lately but his numbers on the road are slightly higher and his numbers in his career against San Francisco are only a 4-4 record with a 3.86 ERA. The Diamondbacks are only 20-29 on the road and I am not sure how they are made road favorites often especially with the way that they have been hitting. The total on this game is set at 7 under so runs should be at a premium tonight. The Giants will have Jonathan Sanchez on the mound and although he has had a couple of rough outings recently he still has a 3.45 ERA at home this year and a 1.33 WHIP. The Giants got leadoff hitter Dave Roberts back yesterday for the first time since April and though he is not a great player it gives the young Giants a veteran in their lineup that they sorely need. I like the Giants at home tonight.
NY Yankees +1.32 (4 Unit Play)
Here we go baseball fans, the Yankees and Red Sox are playing a key series late in July. The Rays were the story of the first half but with them faltering I don't think there is anybody who doesn't feel that these two teams will ultimately decide who wins the AL East. The Yankees will go to Joba Chamberlain for the first game of this series and I will be the first to admit that I have been playing against him whenever possible because he has been overpriced but he has value here tonight. Chamberlain is settling in to his starters role nicely and on the road he has a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings of work with a 1.23 WHIP. He has also faced the spotlight against the Red Sox as he pitched a couple of weeks ago on Sunday Night Baseball so this start should not faze him at all. The Red Sox will have Josh Beckett back on the mound and although he is 8-4 in his career against the Yankees he still has a 4.84 ERA in those starts. Beckett has not been very effective at home this year as well as he has recorded a 4.82 ERA in 46 2/3 innings but has a nice WHIP of 1.16. The Red Sox will welcome Big Papi back tonight and he will make a difference in the lineup but even he admits he is not 100% yet and although he belted three home runs in the minors he only had 2 other hits in 18 total at bats. Manny Ramirez is questionable as well and the Red Sox are in off of a three game sweep of the Mariners but there bats have been very quiet while the Yankees have been ripping the ball. The Yankees are the play tonight regardless.
Sebastian
20* TEXAS
20* RED SOX
20* KC
50* LA Angels
200* REDS
CFL
50* Hamilton
Ben Burns
4* Yankees/Red Sox Under 8.5
5* Cincinnati Reds
Larry Ness
15* AL Game of the Week (174-87 two-year regular season run!)
My 15* play is on the LA Angels at 7:05 ET. The Angels hit .284 as a team last year (4th-best in MLB) and averaged 5.1 RPG. The team dominated right-handed pitching along the way, positing a 75-47 mark. So far in '08, the Angels are batting just .261 as a team while averaging only 4.4 RPG, plus are a more-modest 44-33 vs righties. However, as July nears its end, the Angels own MLB's best record at 62-39. It's also noteworthy to point out that while no other division leader has more than a 2 1/2 game lead, the Angels enter Friday's play with a whopping 10-game lead over the second-place A's in the AL West. The Angels open a three-game series tonight in Baltimore against the Orioles, who are just 48-53. With the Rays (59-42), Red Sox (60-43) and Yankees (56-45) in their division, the Orioles' playoff chances are slim and none (slim has already left town!). Starting tonight for the Angels is lefty Joe Saunders, who is one of the major reasons the Angels have done so well in '08. Despite being constantly shuttled back and forth from the minors to the majors in each of the last two seasons, Saunders handled that very difficult challenge very well. His two-year mark in '06 and '07 was 15-8, with the Angels going an impressive 21-10 in his starts. However, he opened this year in the regular rotation (Colon gone / Lackey on the DL) and has been the team's steadiest pitcher. He enters tonight's game with a 12-5 mark and a 3.05 ERA, with the Angels going 14-5 in his 19 starts. The team is 8-2 in his home starts and 6-3 in his road starts but while Saunders' ERA is 3.80 in Anaheim, it's more than a 1 1/2 runs lower on the road (2.23). More good news comes LA's way in that the Orioles are just 10-16 vs lefties this year, following back-to-back seasons in which they've had all sorts of trouble vs left-handed starters (went 19-27 last year and 16-33 in '06). Getting the nod for Baltimore is Brian Burress, another lefty. Burress is 7-6 with a 5.02 ERA and believe it not, is the team leader in wins. He's been around since '06, when he made just 11 relief appearances, pitching only eight innings. He went 6-8 last year with a 5.95 ERA in 37 appearances, which included 17 starts (team was 6-11). He's made 20 appearances this year (18 starts), with the Orioles going 9-9. Burress has been a much better pitcher on the road however, posting a 3.91 ERA away from home, while his ERA in Camden Yards is 6.04 (72 hits allowed in 53.2 IP). In the Angels, he's facing a team with MLB's best road record (31-18) and one which has been excellent against lefties all season, going 18-6 (including 8-2 on the road). AL Game of the Week 15* LA Angels.
Larry Ness' Rivalry Showdown-NYY/Bos (35-19 MLB run since June 30)
My Rivalry Showdown is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:05 ET. The Red Sox open this three-game series with the Yanks in Fenway at 60-43, in a virtual first-place tie with the Rays (59-42). The Yankees, who have won all six of their games since the All-Star break, are at 56-45 (three games back). The teams have met nine times this season, splitting six games in Yankee Stadium, while the Red Sox have taken two of three in Fenway. The Yankees have not hit like last year, as after leading MLB with a .290 average and 6.0 RPG in '07, those numbers have dropped to .269 and 4.7 per in '08. New York remains without Hideki Matsui (knee) and Jorge Posada (shoulder) and the team's road mark is just 23-23 (4.3 RPG). That does not bode well against the Red Sox, who are a ML-best 36-11 at home, outscoring opponents 5.83-to-3.72 RPG. The Red Sox expect David Ortiz back for this game. "I'm not going to lie to you. I'm not 100 percent, but I'm close to it," said Ortiz. "I think I am where I would like to be." However, Manny Ramirez's status is uncertain. He missed Wednesday's 12-inning, 3-2 win over Seattle due to a sore knee. That being said, the Red Sox went 26-19 without Ortiz and have kept themselves right in the race, so whether or not Ramirez plays here or not, I'll stick with the Red Sox. Joba Chamberlain (2-3 with a 2.52 ERA) gets the start for New York and the converted reliever will be making his 10th start. His debut in the staring rotation came back on June 3 vs Halladay and the Blue Jays. He lasted just 2.1 innings in that one (just one hit but four walks) but he's pitched into the sixth inning in SIX of his last seven outings (Yanks are 6-3 in his nine starts / 2.64 ERA as a starter). He's had one start vs Boston this year, going six innings while allowing four hits, four walks and three ERs on July 6 (Yanks came back to win that game, 5-4 in 10 innings). While I like Joba, winning here in Fenway is asking a lot. Not only are the Red Sox 36-11 at home but they are also 27-9 at home vs right-handed starters. It's especially tough to win in Boston when matched up against Josh Becklett. Beckett has not dominated the Yankees this year, as he's allowed three ERs in all three of his starts (3.92 ERA). However, Beckett's gotten the win in all three of his '08 starts vs the Yanks, as the Red Sox have prevailed 4-3, 7-5 and 6-4. My Rivalry Showdown is on the Bos Red Sox.
Scott Spreitzer's #1 MLB BEATDOWN GAME OF THE WEEK! *20-6, 77% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Reds in the matchup between Volquez and Cook. As good as Aaron Cook has been overall this season, he has not had his best stuff in road action. In fact, the Rockies are just 2-4 in his last six road outings, where Cook sports an ERA of almost five along with a hefty, 1.61 WHIP, allowing 59 base runners (50 hits) in 36 2/3 innings pitched. Cook has been lit-up in his five career appearances (four starts) against the Reds, allowing 15 earned runs and 39 base runners in just 19 IP. That adds up to a horrible, 7.11 ERA & 2.05 WHIP, to go along with a .390 BAA! Making matters worse for the Rockies has been their lack of hitting in this situation. They're 9-19 in road night games against righthanders, scoring an average of only 3.7 runs per game. Edinson Volquez has been outstanding in home night starts for Cinci. The Reds are 3-1 in those four trips to the bump and Volquez owns a 2.59 ERA. In fact, they're 7-3 in his 10 home starts, overall, helped out no doubt by the righthanders' 2.82 ERA. Cinci is actually 11-6 in their last 17 outings and I believe they'll get to Cook early in this one. With the Rockies' road scoring woes, I expect a big win for the hometown Reds. My #1 Beatdown of the Week is a play on Cincinnati on Friday.
Scott Spreitzer's MLB FRIDAY NIGHT KNOCKOUT! *20-6, 77% Winners!
I'm laying a rare price on Friday with the Blue Jays. The Mariners roll into Rogers Centre off of an incredibly disappointing homestand, that ended with a five game losing skid. Seattle started the post-all star break well enough, scoring 15 runs in their first two games. But in their last four, they have scored 2, 0, 2, and 3 runs. The offensive troubles start at the top of the lineup. Ichiro has been in a big-time slump as of late, with just two hits in his last 16 at bats. They'll face John Parrish on Friday. The southpaw may not be long for a regular spot in the rotation, but the Jays have won all three of his starts, including both outings at home where he sports a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. While the M's find the going tough, I expect Toronto to lite-up Miguel Batista. Seattle has not been able to figure out what they really want to do with the righty. One minute he's in the pen, the next he's in the rotation. So far this season, Batista has been rocked for a 5.40 ERA in four road night starts, and the Mariners are 1-3 in those games. The Jays will be licking their chops to get at him. Several players, including Roy Halladay commented on how professional things have been in the clubhouse since Cito Gaston donned the managerial role. The team is 9-4 in their last 13 overall, and 8-2 in their last 10 at home. They are scoring almost six runs per game in their six July home games, and just piled up 22 runs in their final three tilts at Camden. Toronto is a fired-up team with Cito Gaston back at the helm, while Seattle looks to have packed it in, for the most part. Every once in a while there is value with a favorite in this range. I truly believe Toronto should have opened better than a $2 favorite, and I'll gladly lay the price the books have posted. The Blue Jays are my Friday Night Knockout.
RedZone
Double play - White Sox
Regular play - Texas Rangers
Bob Akmens
7* Cardinals/Mets under 9
7* BC Lions -6.5
Fairway Jay
Atlanta Braves 3 units
New York Mets -1.5 3 units
VEGAS RUNNER
OVER 9.5 (-105) ATL/PHI (1*)
At first glance, you would think that the number would have been sent out at 8.5, or at the very most 9...but after doing the work, it became obvious why the oddsmaker went ahead and sent this one out at 9.5 and even with so much UNDER work coming in from the public...the books have decided to keep it there...and the reason for that is because the Buy Order is ready to be sent out on anything 9 or better by a few of the outfits...and if this wasn't the 1st game of the Series, it definately warrented a 2* BET
KBHoops
5 units Pittsburgh -121 **POD**
5 units Atlanta/Philly UNDER 9.5
5 units Texas/Oak OVER 8
5 units Florida +1.5 -131
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
CINNCINATI -140 over Colorado
The Rockies are 6-24 in their last 30 games as a road underdog and 11-23 in Cooks last 34 road starts, while the Reds are 32-13 in their last 45 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0 in Volquezs last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Rockies have just been horrible on the road this year, going 13-35 overall, including just 2-11 in their last 13 away from home. The Rockies score just 3.5 rpg and hit just .238 in their road games, plus in their last 13 away from home they have averaged just2.8 rpg. Aaron cook has been good for the Rox this year, with a 12-6 mark and a 3.58 ERA overall, including a 6-3 mark with a 3.75 ERA on the road, but he is a mediocre 5-5 with a 3.25 ERA at night and he owns a 7.79 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Reds. The Reds offense has come alive of late putting up 6.3 rpg in their last 11 games, plus they have scored 6 rpg in their last 7 at home. Edinson Volquez is 12-3 on the year with a 2.49 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 at home with a 2.82 ERA and 6-2 at night with a 2.48 ERA. The Reds have won 15 of the last 21 in the series and with the way the Rockies are playing on the road, I don't expect that record to get any better for them.
2 UNIT PLAY
LA Angels -130 over BALTIMORE
The Angels are 12-3 in their last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 14-4 in Saunders' last 18 starts during game 1 of a series, while the Orioles are 11-28 in their last 39 games vs. a left-handed starter and 3-13 in Burres' last 16 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Orioles have been reeling of late as they are just 4-12 in their last 16 games, including 3-7 in their last 10 at home. The Orioles offense has scored just 1 run in a game 5 times in their last 10 games and have averaged just 4.4 rpg over that stretch, plus they have averaged just 3.8 rpg in their last 20 games vs the Halos. Joe Saunders has had a good year for the Angels, going 12-5 with a 3.05, including a 6-3 mark with a 2.23 ERA on the road, plus he is 3-2 with a 2.74 ERA in his last 6 starts and 7-45 with a 2.99 ERA at night. Joe is also 3-0 vs the O's, even though he has a 5.63 ERA vs them. The Angels offense scores just 4.3 rpg on the road, but they have been hot of late, with a .314 BA and a scoring average of 6.1 rpg in their last 7 overall. Brian Burres is having an ok year, as he has a 7-6 mark with a 5.02 ERA overall, including a 4-3 mark with a 5.93 ERa at home. The Angels are the best road team in the league and they come in winners of 7 of their last 8 overall, while the O's are headed in the opposite direction. Look for the Halos to prevail in this one with the better pitching and better offense, as Baltimore's slide continues.
Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 9.5
The Under is 28-6-1 in Braves last 35 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 39-13-1 in Braves last 53 road games, while the Under is 4-1-1 in Phillies last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter and 7-3 in Kendricks last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Braves have played a ton of low scoring affairs on the road this year, as their road games have averaged just 7.7 rpg on the road. The Braves, themselves, score just 3.9 rpg away from home, plus they score just 4.1 rpg at night and they have scored just 3 rpg vs Phils pitching this year. Jair Jurrjens has been solid for the Braves this year, with a 3.22 ERA overall and a 3.16 ERA on the road. Jair's starts this year average just 8.5 rpg, while his road starts average just 7.7 rpg, plus just 5 runs were scored in his lone start vs Philly. Kyle Kendrick struggled in his last start vs Florida, but prior to that he was pitching well with a 2.74 ERA in his prior 4 starts. Kyle's home starts average just 9.1 rpg, while the Phils home games overall also average 9.1 rpg. The Phils offense has not been great of late as they are averaging just 4.1 rpg in their last 7 and they put up just 4.6 rpg vs righty starters. Look for a low scoring affair in Philly tonight.
I ALSO LIKE
MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+120) over Houston
1 UNIT PLAY
Arizona -138 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Diamondbacks are 10-4 in Harens last 14 starts as a favorite and 7-2 in Harens last 9 starts overall, while the Giants are 3-14 in their last 17 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 8-20 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Giants have not been a really good home team this year, as they are just 20-31 at home, while scoring 3.9 rpg and hitting just .255 in the process. The Giants also score just 4.1 rpg vs righty starters and just 3.5 rpg in divisional game. Jonathan Sanchez comes in struggling a bit, as he is 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has pitched well at home with a 2-2 record and a 3.45 ERA, but he has gone 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in 5 career starts vs the D-Backs. He will be facing a good Arizona offense that comes in scoring 5 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they are 22-12 with in the division this year, scoring 5.5 rpg and hitting .276 in the process. Danny Haren gets the ball for Arizona and hes has been good, with a 9-5 record and a 2.58 ERA overall, including a 4-1 mark with a 1.29 ERA in his last 9 starts. He has been on a roll. Despite his 1-3 record on the road, he still has a 3.05 ERA, while allowing teams a .254 OBP and posting a 0.97 WHIP. The Giants swept the D-Backs in the last series, which was at Arizona, and the payback begins tonight.