LT Profits
Seattle Seahawks +3.0
The Seattle Seahawks fits nicely into what we like to call a GAP system on Friday night, and they get the call as road underdogs when they visit the Minnesota Vikings.
The first step in this system to group each team into either the Good, Average or Poor category (ergo, GAP) based solely on their win totals of last season. Well, the Seahawks grade out as Good while the Vikings grade out as Average, This is significant because higher classed road underdogs are 77-51, 60.2 percent against the spread the last seven preseasons.
Looking at the specific teams, the Seahawks are a nice 6-2 straight up and ATS on the road during the preseason over the last four years. They also like to get off on the right foot in these exhibition games, going 4-1 both SU and ATS in the last five openers. Conversely, the Vikings have lost their last two August openers and since they are a popular pick to win the NFC Central, they will in all likelihood be more concerned with staying healthy than posting wins during this preseason.
Finally, the Vikings have been distracted lately by all of the talk concerning the acquisition of Brett Favre, which may result in their corps of young quarterbacks pressing a bit in an attempt to impress.
Pick: Seahawks +3
San Francisco 49ers +3.0
The San Francisco 49ers and the Oakland Raiders have had a couple of joint practices this summer, so they are both somewhat familiar with what to expect this week, which automatically gives value to the underdog.
Besides the 49ers are a very young team that may seemingly get as many wins this preseason as they do the entire regular season, so they probably have the greater motivation to win early between these two teams. Then again, that would be nothing new considering that the Niners are 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread vs. their Bay Area rivals the last five years in preseason.
Now the Raiders are expected to improve this season, thanks to their first round draft pick Darren McFadden, but you just know that they will handle Run DMC with kid gloves during the exhibition season, not wanting to risk a serious injury. Thus, we will see the same last place team as last year for the most part, at least in the early weeks.
Look for the underdog Niners to pull a confidence-building upset here.
Pick: 49ers +3
Tom Stryker
St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Chicago took care of business last week by sweeping division rival Milwaukee. Now, with a six-game lead on St. Louis, the Cubs would love to get a little more breathing room between themselves and the Cardinals.
In order to get this series started out on the right foot, the Cubbies will turn to southpaw Ted Lilly. The Torrance, California product has been dynamite in his last four starts. Facing the Pirates, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Astros, Lilly has been touched for only eight earned runs and 25 hits in 25.1 innings of work. Equally impressive, with No. 30 on the bump, Chicago has cashed eight of its last nine at Wrigley and seven of its last eight matched up against a greater than .500 foe.
St. Louis will counter with Brandon Looper. Even though the former Wichita State Shocker has pitched well in his last three starts, this is NOT the spot for Brandon. With the lights turned off, Looper has struggled something fierce. With 30.0 innings of daytime work in the bank, No. 41 has been clocked for 22 earned runs and 45 hits. That adds up to a lofty 6.60 ERA! To make matters worse, with Brandon on the bump, the Cardinals have dropped eight straight on foreign soil matched up against a greater than .500 foe.
Chicago has been awesome as home chalk cashing 41 of its last 53 and nailed 22 of its last 30 in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field matched up against a right-handed pitcher. Meanwhile, St. Louis has dropped 10 of its last 13 against winning teams.
The Cubs enjoyed an off day on Thursday and catch the Cards ragged off their tough series against the Dodgers. Lay the lumber here men. Take Chicago with listed pitcher Lilly
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR FRIDAY
TEXAS +155 at Baltimore--Rangers bats kick it in at Camden--I like the price for the risk
Kenny Rogers -155 at Comerica vs the slumpin A's
CLEVELAND +110 and Paul Byrd at Toronto--you love when these bets hit, don't you ?
KC +120 at Kaufmann over the Twinkies--take that to the window bitches
SD at Colorado--Take Peavy at -120 in Coors--I say he beats Rusch with that low ERA under 3
PAIN DAY GAMES ON FRIDAY
Eagles +3 over Pittsburgh--and on the road no less ! Pittsburgh has lost a lot and it will show, especially up front
Vikings -3 to Seattle--Minney gets this one and everyone will start talking about how good they are going to be--NOT !
RAIDERS -3 to the 49ers--Because San Fran takes it in the ass regularly--how you like them apples ?
Gator Report
NFLX Top Angles
NFLX Friday:Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS on the road during the first two weeks of the preseason.
MLB 70% Super Situation
MLB Friday:Play Under MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher with a team that is averaging 0.35 or less SB's per game on the season, after a combined score of 3 runs or less, 39-9 Under last five seasons (81.2%) PLAY: Pittsburgh / Philadelphia UNDER 10 (-125)
MLB Top Angles:
MLB Friday:Cubs are 13-2 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who has allowed less than 1.75 BB's per start this season.
MLB Friday: Nolasco (Fla) is 6-0 against the money line versus teams that are averaging 0.85 or more SB's per game this season (Team's Record).
MLB Friday:Nolasco (Fla) is 6-0 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season (Team's Record).
MLB Friday:Penny (LAD) is 10-1 against the money line in road games versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last 3 seasons (Team's Record)
MLB Friday:Zito (SF) is 0-9 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MLB Friday:Minnesota is 12-0 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last 3 games this season.
Doc’s Sports
Take San Diego -130 over Colorado
The Fathers still have a good pitching staff lead by Jake Peavy and he will be looking for his ninth victory on the season. He has an outstanding E.R.A. of 2.59 and that is almost three runs less per game then what Glendon Rusch is allowing. Rusch cannot last more than five innings and the Padres will nickel and dime a couple of runs off of him and notch the victory. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s AL Game of the Year (7-unit pick), which goes Saturday, August 9th, 2008. We have nailed both of our GOY plays this season (7-unit or higher). This one will be another easy win and it's 100% guaranteed.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Seattle at MINNESOTA -3
Thursday preseason winner on Kansas City in the NFL, and tonight we like the "home cooking", and the Minnesota Vikings to prevail against Seattle.
By all account Tarvaris Jackson is making great strides under center, and while last season was certainly a "growing" experience for the young signal-caller, look for him to be a tad better in all areas as this season progresses.
Minnesota does have the veteran Gus Frerrotte to back up Jackson, and will also use Brooks Bollinger, and John Booty to round out this home game in the dome. Both Frerrotte, and Bollinger have seen plenty of action at this level, and should be A-OK in moving the Norsemen offense.
Seattle usually starts slow in the preseason, and they do have their home opener lined up for next Saturday night against Chicago.
This game should be close for a while, but with Minnesota one of the "chic" picks this year in the NFC to surprise, we will lean to the Vikes to get the cover in the closing minutes of this one.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Dwayne Bryant
Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Play On: Houston Astros +121
Houston took the series opener last night, making them 5-1 against the Reds this season and 6-0 in the last six played at Great American Ball Park. Houston's Randy Wolf is 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA in his career against the Reds, including a win this season in which he went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs on just 4 hits while striking out 9. The Reds are batting just .204 and scoring 4.02 runs per game against lefties over their last ten games.
Cincy's Johnny Cueto has struggled lately. Cueto owns a 5.50 ERA over his last three starts. Don't expect that to improve tonight, as Cueto is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA in two career starts against the Astros (both this season). The batters on Houston's current roster are a combined 13-for-42 (.310 BA) with four doubles and two homers (.548 slugging %). Houston is batting .288 and scoring 6.55 runs per game against righties over their last ten games. The Reds are 2-9 in Cueto's last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Reds are also 2-11 in their last 13 overall.
Take Houston.
Dave Cokin
Indians @ Blue Jays
Play: Indians +115
Anthony Reyes burst on the scene as a top prospect a few years back with the Cardinals, but never lived up to the tease. Now he's got a chance for a new start with the Indians. Reyes has looked good at AAA since the move. Of course, he's excelled at that level previously, so I'm not going overboard with enthusiasm. But his stuff is more than good enough to succeed in the show. I'm not sure that holds true for David Purcey. The Blue Jays starter is prone to the long ball and frequently loses the strike zone. I don't see him as reliable chalk and I'll give Reyes and the Indians a good shot tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cincinnati
The Reds and Astros meet in the 2nd of a four-game weekend series this evening when Johnny Cueto takes on Randy Wolf in the Queen City. A quick check of each hurlers' home and road dichotomies this season tells us all we need to know here as Cueto home ERA is a full run better than on the road while Wolf's road ERA is more than 3.5 runs worse than his home ERA. With the Reds 9-3 on Fridays, including 5-1 at home, look for the home team to improve to 17-7 in Cueto's starts here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 8-3 in their last 11 vs. AL East opponents. The Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 opening games of a series. The Indians send Reyes to the mound to make his first start as an Indian and he'll be facing a Blue Jays team that has struggled to hit all season long. Look for Reyes to keep the Jays off balance tonight. The Blue Jays are coming off a 4-game sweep of the A's and will have a harder time in this series vs. an Indian team they struggle against of late. The Jays are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Cleveland Indians +.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Houston Astros
At 7:10pm our member selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cincinnati Reds. If ever a pitcher needed a change of scenery, it's 31-year-old lefthander Randy Wolf, and the recent move from the weak-hitting Padres to the Astros would seem to be a win-win for both Wolf and Houston. After spending the better part of the past two seasons on two NL West, offensively-challenged clubs (Wolf was with the Dodgers in 2007 before joining San Diego in the off-season), he finally finds himself on a team that can give him the type of run support he will need to thrive. And Houston caught fire lately having recently won eight of nine games between July 27 and August 4, and although the Astros are too far back in NL Central to make a serious run at the postseason this year, they can certainly still play the role of spoiler. The Reds' Johnny Cueto will be a very good starter some day, but that day is still probably at least a year away as Cueto is barely 22 years old and although he throws in the mid-to-high 90s,he lacks the maturity to effectively mix his pitches and that will only come with more seasoning. Let's hope the Reds don't burn him out by giving him too many innings too soon. They would be wise to give Cueto some rest before the end of this season. Take the 'Stros tonight behind the veteran Wolf.
Stephen Nover
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Washington Nationals
It has been quite a while since I saw this big of an underdog. Milwaukee starter CC Sabathia has been everything and more the Brewers could have wanted so far. He's 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts for Milwaukee.
But the underdog Nationals have a few things going their way for this matchup. Sabathia has averaged 114 pitches during his last five starts. He's also never faced Washington before.
The Nationals are playing well, winning six of their last seven. They are going with young players, such as second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, and are loose feeling no pressure. Lasting Milledge is swinging a hot bat with four homers in his last six games.
Washington swept a double-header from Colorado at Coors Field on Thursday. That has to boost the Nationals' confidence.
Washington stater Collin Balestar is one of the Nationals' better young pitchers. He has a 3.31 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break.
The Nationals just may steal this series-opener.
Ross Benjamin
Atlanta @ Arizona
Play On:Under 9.0
The Braves have gone over the total in just 17 of their 57 away games this season. The Atlanta starter Campillo enters the game in sizzling hot form off of his last 4 starts posting a 0.81 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. In 6 starts on the road this season Campillo has posted a stellar 2.08 ERA. Campillo has seen just 1 of his last 8 starts go over the total when pitching on 4 days of rest. Atlanta has gone under the total in 23 of their last 29 as an underdog of 1.50 or less. The Arizona starter Doug Davis enters the game in good form off of his last 3 starts posting a solid 1.16 WHIP. Play on under.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR FRIDAY
Looper and Cards +140 at Wrigley--get some of that shit slick ! Remember I hit the Bucs there and the Astros--so don't be a hater
Pirates +150 in Ferralladelphia--that's what I'm talking about--that new Bucs lineup toasting the Phillies at Citizens--Maholm over Blanton
Astros +115 in Cincinnati--Hoston's been hot and the Reds have not--go for it--Wolf over Cueto
Mets -135 over Marlins at Shea--Oly Perez is too tough at home for Nolasco
Atlanta +110 at Arizona as Campillo burns another team that doubts him--even though the Braves have been swallowing lately
Barry Zito (even odds) over Brad Penny and the Dodgers--Penny is making his first start in forever and I say he gets jacked in the Bay
TB -165 and Shields at Seattle over shitty Silva and the M's
Weaver -165 and Angels over Ian Shaky Legs Kennedy in Anaheim
Boston -110 at ChiSox--Jon Lester has been on fire winning his last five starts and Buehrle has dropped two straight--he gave up eight earnedruns in 4 innings in his last shit performance
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR THURSDAY
TB-SEATT UNDER 8 RUNS
DET-CHISOX UNDER 10.5 RUNS
NY-TEX UNDER 12 RUNS
OAK-TOR OVER 7 RUNS
ATL-ARIZ OVER 10 RUNS
HOUS-CINCY OVER 9.5 RUNS
WASH-COLO OVER 9.5 RUNS
LA-CARDS UNDER 8.5 RUNS
FLA-PHILLY UNDER 9 RUNS
SD-NY OVER 7.5 RUNS
Sean Higgs
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play:Over
Rangers have played 11-3-1 over their last 13 and 7 of their last 9 as road dogs. They have gone over in 5 straight on the road and have gone 6-1-1 over in Mendoza's last 8 eight outings including 4 straight road overs. These two teams have gone over in 4 of the last 5 in Baltimore.