Jim Feist
BOS Red Sox and CHW White Sox
Take Under
Boston hits well at home, but averages 1.3 runs per game less on the road. This offense has not been sharp against lefties the last few years and faces a very good southpaw in Mark Buehrle. Boston lefty Jon Lester has been outstanding, at 10-3 with a 3.14 ERA, emerging as a real stopper. He's on a roll, at 3-0 his last 3 starts with a 1.69 ERA! Chicago manager Ozzie Guillen has has been focused on using better defensive players in the infield of late. This total is too high, play the Red Sox/White Sox under the total.
Pointwise
2* Eagles
TONY STEVENS
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1.5
EDMONTON ESKIMOS +5.5
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers -120 at SAN FRANCISCO
Has any trade deadline acquisition had as much of an impact as Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles? He's homered in four of the six games he's worn blue and the Dodgers offense seems much more fluid and confident. This move could win the Dodgers the A.L. West.
Tonight we're going with them to get the job done in San Francisco as they send Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88 ERA) to the mound against the Giants Barry Zito (6-13, 5.40).
Penny hasn't pitched since June 14 and is coming off the DL with a sore shoulder. He had a rehab start in Las Vegas on Saturday and tonight he'll be limited to about 90 pitches. He knows how to beat the Giants, downing them on opening day, allowing four hits in 6.2 innings of a 5-0 victory. He's 4-2 with a 2.99 ERA as a Dodger against the Giants.
Zito is 4-3 with a 4.27 ERA in eight starts against the Dodgers and even though he looked good on Saturday against San Diego's anemic offense, he won't follow it up tonight. He'll fall back to the form he's had all season.
Play the Dodgers to win this one.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Philadelphia at PITTSBURGH -1
Experienced backup QBs are the key to this battle for Pennsylvania. These two squads get together every preseason and this year they open their August exhibition season at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.
The home team seems to always pull it out in this series, going 3-0 SU and ATS the last three preseason meetings. Last year the Steelers got a 27-13 win as three-point favorites and they're right back in Pittsburgh for this one.
The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger will just play the opening series tonight, followed by Charlie Batch and then rookies Dennis Dixon and Mike Potts. Dixon could be a keeper for the Steelers. Expect him to move the team up and down the field.
Philadelphia will go with Donovan McNabb early and then give the middle quarters to A.J. Feeley and Kevin Kolb will close it out. The Eagles have some defensive injuries that could hurt them tonight and they are 0-2 SU and ATS in last year's preseason and just 1-7 SU (3-5 ATS) the last three preseasons.
Pittsburgh was 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS last August and they'll get off on the right foot with this one. Play the Steelers.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
John Fina
Selection: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Runs
Today the Texas Rangers will be on the road as they take on the Baltimore Orioles. We will side with the Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Runs! One reason why we will side with the Baltimore Orioles is because they will be sending to the mound the much superior starting pitcher. This say it all... The Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher (Luis Mendoza) has a 8.27 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Baltimore Orioles Starting Pitcher (Jeremy Guthrie) has a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Baltimore Orioles will be sending to the mound the much superior pitcher. We see the Baltimore Orioles getting another blowout win tonight! Take the Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Runs!
Tom Freese
Boston at Chicago
Boston is 14-5 their last 19 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 49-22 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Red Sox are 35-16 if they were off yesterday and they are 6-0 with Jon Lester in his last 6 starts vs. winning teams. Chicago is 1-6 their last meetings vs. the Red Sox are 1-7 their last 8 game vs. AL East foes. The White Sox are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. winning teams and they are 1-4 with Mark Buehrle AL East foes. PLAY ON BOSTON
Sports Advisors
NFL PRESEASON
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
The in-state rivalry between the Eagles and Steelers opens the preseason for both teams at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia was 0-2 SU and ATS on the highway last preseason and they are just 1-7 SU (3-5 ATS) on the road the last three summers. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh finished last August 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS and has gone 5-5 SU and ATS at home the last five preseasons.
The home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three preseason meetings between these two, including last year when the Steelers scored a 27-13 win as three-point favorites in Pittsburgh.
Steelers’ fans won’t see much of starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, who will play just the opening series for coach Mike Tomlin. Veteran backup Charlie Batch will follow Roethlisberger for about three series and then rookies Dennis Dixon and Mike Potts will split the rest of the action under center. The Steelers will be without several key players, including safety Troy Polamalu.
Philadelphia’s QB rotation is set with starter Donovan McNabb playing the first quarter, followed by A.J. Feeley, who will play the middle two quarters with Kevin Kolb mopping up the fourth quarter. The Eagles are thin on the defensive side of the ball due to injuries, and among the key players sitting out will be newly acquired cornerback Asante Samuel.
The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last five preseason games while the under is 8-1 in the Steelers’ last two preseasons and 10-3 the last three.
ATS ADVANTAGE:PITTSBURGH
Seattle at Minnesota
Mike Holmgren takes his Seahawks east to Minneapolis for their preseason opener against third-year coach Brad Childress and the Vikings inside the Metrodome.
The Seahawks went 3-1 SU and ATS last summer, and they are 12-8 SU and 11-9 ATS over the last five preseasons. The straight-up winner is 12-0 ATS in their last three preseasons and 19-1 ATS in their last five Augusts.
Minnesota is 4-3-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in Childress’ first two preseasons, and the Vikings are 2-2 SU and ATS at home during this span.
These two squared off in Week 3 of the preseason last August with Seattle scoring a 30-13 victory at home as a seven-point favorite.
Seahawks starting QB Matt Hasselbeck will likely only play two series, giving way to tested backup Seneca Wallace for the rest of the half. QB Charlie Frye, acquired from the Browns early last season, is slated to play most of the second half with Dalton Bell possibly getting some mop-up action.
Minnesota starts QB Tavaris Jackson, who will play the first quarter, followed by veteran Gus Frerotte, who was held out of practice early in the week but still should see some playing time. Rookie John David Booty will play most of the second half, with Brooks Bollinger possibly getting some fourth-quarter action.
For Seattle, the over is 8-4 the last three Augusts, while the Vikings have topped the total in seven of 12 games the last three preseasons, including last year’s head-to-head matchup between these two topping the 38-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER
San Francisco at Oakland
The Raiders and 49ers kick off their preseasons with their annual August clash for Bay Area bragging rights, with this one taking place at McAfee Coliseum in Oakland.
The Raiders went 2-2 SU and ATS in coach Lane Kiffin’s first preseason in 2007, going 2-0 SU and ATS at home. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in front of the home fans the last two Augusts and 7-3 (6-4 ATS) in Oakland the last five summers.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has been a disaster on the road in the preseason lately, going 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS dating to 2003, including 0-6 (3-3 ATS) on the road under third-year coach Mike Nolan. Over the last five seasons, the 49ers are 5-7 overall in August, but 8-4 ATS.
The 49ers won last season’s preseason battle 26-21 at home, covering as a three-point chalk. In 2006 in Oakland, the Raiders dominated San Francisco, winning 23-7 as three-point home favorites.
San Francisco’s J.T. O’Sullivan gets the start at QB and will lead the starters through the first quarter. Former starter Alex Smith will play the second quarter and into the third with Shaun Hill finishing the game.
Former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcuss Russell, who missed the entire 2007 preseason in a contract holdout, will start his first under center for Oakland and lead the first-string in the first quarter. Russell will give way to Andrew Walter in the second quarter, with Marques Tuiasosopo and Sam Keller splitting time in second half.
The Raiders have stayed under the total in 10 of their last 13 preseason contests, and the last time these two met in Oakland, the game stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OAKLAND and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (61-54) at N.Y. Mets (60-54)
The two teams trying to run down the Phillies in the N.L. East race kick off a three-game series at Shea Stadium in New York, where the Marlins send Ricky Nolasco (11-6, 3.91 ERA) to the hill to meet Mets’ southpaw Oliver Perez (7-7, 4.12).
Florida trails Philadelphia by 1½ games and sits just a half-game ahead of the Mets after both squads scored wins Thursday. New York got a two-run, walk-off homer from David Wright to beat the Padres 5-3, while the Marlins were blanking the Phillies 3-0 in Philadelphia. The Marlins are 6-4 in their last 10 games, while the Mets have stumbled of late, losing six of their last nine overall.
Nolasco has struggled recently, posting a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts, but he is still 6-2 on the road this season with a 3.91 ERA. The Marlins have won nine of his last 11 starts but they are just 2-2 in his last four and he’s allowed three runs or more in three of the four outings. He’s seen the Mets twice this season and beaten them both starts, allowing a combined five runs on 16 hits in 11 innings. For his career he is 2-3 with a 8.13 ERA in eight appearances against New York.
Perez has had an up-and-down season, but lately he’s been on, posting a 2.75 ERA in his last three outings, including a six-inning stint in Florida on July 20 when he gave up one run in six innings of a 4-1 victory. The Mets have won seven of his last 10 starts, and they’ve won all three of his outings against the Marlins this season as he’s given them six innings in each effort. New York is 8-2 in his last 10 versus Florida.
The Marlins are 6-0 in Nolasco’s last six starts as an underdog and 12-5 in their last 17 games as a ‘dog overall, while New York is 6-1 in Perez’s last seven home starts and 13-3 in their last 16 home games.
The over is 8-1 in Nolasco’s last nine road outings and 40-20-6 in the Marlins last 66 on the highway. For the Mets, the under is on a 7-0 run when Perez takes the mound, but the over is 8-3 in their last 11 overall. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 36-17-3 overall, 6-0-2 in games at Shea, 4-1 with Perez on the hill at Shea and 5-1 when Nolasco toes the rubber against the Mets.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (66-49) at Chicago White Sox (63-49)
The Red Sox shoot for their eighth straight victory over the White Sox when they send lefty Jon Lester (10-3, 3.14) to the mound opposite southpaw Mark Buehrle (8-10, 4.07) to open a three-game weekend set at U.S. Cellular Field.
Boston lost the first matchup with Chicago last season and then proceeded to win seven straight, including a four-game sweep in the Windy City in late August, pounding White Sox pitching for 46 runs in the four games. Most recently, the Red Sox come into this one having won five of six overall, including back-to-back 8-2 wins in Kansas City on Tuesday and Wednesday before taking Thursday off.
Chicago is just 4-4 in its last eight after losing 8-3 at home against Detroit last night.
Lester has been locked in lately, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts, and the Red Sox have gone 27-9 the last 36 times he’s taken the ball. On Saturday, he gave up two runs in seven innings of a 12-2 win over the A’s, and he’s allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings. In his lone start against the White Sox Lester gave up two runs in six innings of a 7-2 win in July 2006.
Buehrle has a whopping 7.02 ERA in his last three games and gave up eight runs on 14 hits in just 4 1/3 innings of action of a 9-7 loss in Kansas City six days ago. The White Sox have dropped four of his last six starts overall and five of his last six against the Red Sox, against whom Buehrle is 4-4 with a 4.46 ERA in 68 2/3 innings.
Boston is on runs of 21-8 against southpaws and 43-21 against teams from the A.L. Central. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 41-18 in their last 59 home games and 13-3 in their past 16 at home against left-handed starters, but just 1-7 in their last eight against A.L. East squads.
The over is 8-2-3 in Boston’s last 13 games following an off day. Meanwhile the over is 7-2 in the Chicago’s last nine at home and 16-4-1 in its last 21 overall. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on streaks of 7-0 overall, 6-0 in Chicago and 4-1-1 the last six times Buehrle has faced the Red Sox.
ATS ADVANTAGE:BOSTON and OVER
JB's Computer Picks
Chicago Cubs -155
Toronto Blue Jays -130
Milwaukee Brewers -310 * * *
Colorado Rockies +105
Best Bet ***
King Creole
I came across this WEEK ONE tendency in the NFL pre-season while skimming through some of the online forums. It is not something that I researched myself. But it IS worth noting. And since we ALL have the common goal of 'taking down the MAN', the more information that we can share with each other.... the better (or BETTOR!) it is for all of us.
In week one of the NFL "X" season, play ON any team that missed the Playoffs last year.... when they are taking on a team that WON at least one Playoff game last year. If you had played this situation each of the last two seasons, you would have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS.
Now, this shouldn't be your only reason to play ON these non-playoff teams. You must also factor in previous pre-season Systems, Trends, and Tendencies. And a sharp player will also address the Head Coach... the projected quarterback rotations... and the relative youth or experience of the two teams that are playing each other. At the very least, this Systems will PREVENT me from playing ON the Giants, Seahawks, Jaguars, Packers, and Patriots in GAME ONE.
So we'll take a possible look at the following "Play ON" teams in week one:
MINNESOTA VIKINGS over the seattle seahawks
CINCINNATI BENGALS over the green bay packers
ATLANTA FALCONS over the jacksonville jaguars
FAO Sports
San Francisco at Raiders
Play: UNDER
It is presently at 34 PTS. The first game of the preeason for both of these teams have gone under 1-5 O/U the L3Y.Also, the Raiders are 1-5 O/U at home the L3Y.
Take the 49ers Raiders UNDER
TONY MATHEWS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Selection: Los Angeles/San Francisco Over 8
The Los Angeles Dodgers will use starting pitcher Brad Penny. Brad Penny has been struggling this season. In fact, Brad Penny has a 5.88 ERA on the season. We see Brad Penny giving up many runs once again today.
The San Francisco Giants will use starting pitcher Barry Zito. Barry Zito has also struggled this season. In fact, Barry Zito has a 5.40 ERA on the season. We see Barry Zito also giving up many runs once again today.
Trend: The Over is 10-3 in the San Francisco Giants last 13 home games.
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers/San Francisco Giants Over 8
Las Vegas Sports Advisors
Tampa Bay/James Shields -170
Play of the Day
San Diego/Jake Peavy -125
LA Dodgers/Brad Penny -115
Carlo Campanella
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: Milwaukee sends CC Sabathia to the mound as they host Washington on Friday evening. Washington 15-26 against southpaws this year and now faces a Milwaukee squad that's an incredible 5-1 behind Sabathia since he joined the team two months back. Expect another strong home performance from the former Indian's ace.
7* Play On Milwaukee
TONY WESTON
I'm switching gears and going back to the diamond where the Texas Rangers will get over on the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
The Rangers come into this game installed as a pretty big dog and we're going to take advantage of that. While the Rangers have lost their last two games at home against the New York Yankees, they are still 6-4 their last 10 games and are 4-3 their last seven, including two wins against Yankee studs Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte.
The Orioles, on the other hand, come into this game 1-3 their last four games and only 3-4 their last seven.
But most importantly, these teams have played each other six times this season with Texas holding a 4-2 advantage, including wins in four of their last five meetings and victories in their last two matchups.
Look for Texas to continue its winning ways against the Orioles and get over easily. Take the Rangers on the road tonight.
3♦ RANGERS
ANTHONY CAPONE:
TAMPA BAY RAYS vs SEATTLE MARINERS
Play: TAMPA BAY RAYS
Tonight it's James Shields that gets the win over a bad Seattle club and a worse starter in Carlos Silva . Silvas season has been lousyto put it mildly by any standards .He is (4-12) on the season surrendering over 35 more hits than Innings pitched .His last 3 have been no better as his ERA has ballooned to over 10 .James Shields has been very steady all year with a (9-7) record and an ERA of barely over 3 .The D'Rays have won 8 of their last 10 games , as the Mariners continue to slide .They have played decent ball lately but it won't be enough tonight against a far superior team and pitcher . Play the Tampa Bay Rays