Chris Jordan
Titans at FALCONS
Rookie gunslinger Matt Ryan has arguably been the most effective quarterback for the Falcons during the exhibition campaign, and with this being the most important week of the preseason, you’d have to imagine he’ll bring his A-Game to the Georgia Dome tonight. He’s expected to play well into the third quarter, which means he’ll be allowed to expand the playbook, utilize balance on several drives and properly lead the offense. He’s already considered the favorite fort he starting job, and I am betting that if San Diego-import Michael Turner can relieve some of the pressure, Ryan will be able to shine.
On the other hand, we have a Tennessee offense that posted 34 points in the season opener, and a mere 17 last week against the Raiders. A bit deceptive, and the thing is, Vince Young has yet to give us his best game. The starting offense scored just one touchdown in that exhibition opener, so imagine what it will do on the turf tonight, if the Falcons decide to speed things up. Remember, Atlanta’s defense is nothing to write in about.
These are a pair of young offensive units, and though we’re still in the preseason, they’re going to ignite a bit to topple this rather low number.
2♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
I never thought in a million years I’d be going against the Patriots in Week 3 of the preseason. Why? Because this is the only August game that coach Bill Belichick gives a hoot about, as his team not only is 5-1 SU and ATS the last three years in Week 3, but the Pats have outscored the opposition 92-10 the last three years alone!
So why buck such a strong trend this time around? Two words: Tom Brady. Normally, Brady would play well into the third quarter with the rest of the starters this week. However, because of a leg injury that has kept him on the sidelines in the first two preseason games, it’s unknown if Brady will sniff the field tonight. And if he does play, I can’t see any way in the world that Belichick exposes his bread-and-butter for more than a series or two. And you know what that means: Yep, another healthy dose of backups Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez and rookie Kevin O’Connell. Well, if you saw Cassel and O’Connell stink it up in Monday’s 27-10 loss in Tampa Bay, you can see why I’m not backing New England.
As for the Eagles, their starters (including QB Donovan McNabb), are set to go three quarters in this one. And in the end, I’ll take McNabb and Philly’s first-stringers for 75 percent of the game over a Tom Brady-less New England squad (whose defense, by the way, is looking old!). Take the points with what should be a motivated visitor (remember: McNabb and Philly coach Andy Reid haven’t forgotten that Super Bowl loss to the Pats three years ago!).
4♦ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Tony Mathews
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Selection: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs
The Pittsburgh Pirates will use starting pitcher Zach Duke. Zach Duke has been struggling as of late. In fact, Zach Duke has a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Zach Duke pitching another bad game today.
The Milwaukee Brewers will use starting pitcher David Bush. David Bush has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, David Bush has a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see David Bush pitching another great game today.
The Milwaukee Brewers are 21-6 in their last 27 meetings against the Pittsburgh Pirates (when playing in Milwaukee), and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!
Take the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs
Brian Marshall
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Detroit/Kansas City Over 9.5
The Detroit Tigers will be lead by starting pitcher Justin Verlander. Justin Verlander has struggled as of late. In fact, Justin Verlander has a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Justin Verlander giving up many runs once again today.
The Kansas City Royals will be lead by starting pitcher Brian Bannister. Brian Bannister has also struggled as of late. In fact, Brian Bannister has a 12.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Brian Bannister also giving up many runs once again today.
Trend: The Over is 9-3 in the Detroit Tigers last 12 road games.
To say the least, we should see many runs scored today.
Take the Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals Over 9.5
Big Al
Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
At 9:40pm our member selection is on the Florida Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total. The D-Backs may have a renewed offense of late, but for some reason, veteran lefthanded starter and future Hall-of-Famer Randy Johnson has not been the recipient of any of this recent firepower. It's almost like the bats take the day off when Johnson steps to the mound. Consider that, the Diamondbacks had averaged 6.3 runs since Johnson's last outing, which was a 3-0 loss to Roy Oswalt and the Astros. Then in the four previous games that did not feature the Big Unit, the scores were 11-5, 12-2, 6-2, and 6-5. Johnson's outing prior to those four gams? A 4-2 victory over the Rockies. In fact, if you go back through Johnson's last four starts, Arizona only scored a total of six runs and the total runs scored in the four games combined was fourteen. A similar fate has met Florida's talented young righthander Anibal Sanchez. With the exception of the 12-2 blowout of the Rockies on July 31st, the Marlins have not scored more than 3 runs in any of Sanchez's last five outings. There's no doubt that Arizona holds a special place in Sanchez's heart. After all, it was against this team that the 24-year-old threw a no-hitter back in September of 2006. Almost 2 years later and with Florida vying for a berth in the postseason, there's no doubt that Sanchez would like to duplicate that, although I'm sure he would settle for a repeat of his last start when he shut down the Cubs over 5 1/3 innings en route to a 2-1 victory. Look for a low-scoring affair tonight. Take the 'under'.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers +125 at PHILADELPHIA
We back the Dodgers to get the win in Philadelphia.
Will history repeat itself for the Dodgers? Two seasons ago they got Greg Maddux in a late-season acquisition and he delivered for them and they got to the playoffs. They send the veteran Maddux (6-9, 3.99 ERA) to the hill tonight in Philadelphia with thoughts of the same thing happening as they are trying to run down and pass the D'Backs.
When he was a Dodger in 2006 Maddux went 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA and Los Angeles won the NL West crown. Maddux faced the Phillies as a San Diego Padre a week ago and held them to one run on five hits over seven innings but lost 1-0.
The Dodgers swept the Phillies four games in Los Angeles last week and Philadelphia just isn't scoring runs lately, putting up just 61 in August for the third fewest in baseball.
Kyle Kendrick (10-7, 5.01) goes for the Phillies and he has been crushed in his last two starts, givign up seven runs in just 3.1 innings of an 8-6 loss to the Dodgers on Aug. 11 and then following it up by allowing six runs in 3.2 innings to the Padres on Saturday with an 8-3 loss.
Los Angeles has won six straight against the Phillies and we don't expect much to change tonight. Play the Dodgers and Maddux in this one.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS
Tennessee +3 at ATLANTA
Today on the gridiron we're going with the Titans in Atlanta to take care of the Falcons.
Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher wants his starters to get significant playing time tonight and we're going to trust they can put up some numbers against the Atlanta defense
Vince Young didn't look good last week against the Raiders, going just 4-for-13 for 37 yards in the Titans' 17-16 victory. Young has led the Titans on seven drives in two preseason games and only has three points to show for it. He'll get plenty of chances tonight and expect him to show something positive
Tennessee is 12-3-1 ATS in the last eight years of preseason action and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when they've been an underdog in August. Veteran Kerry Collins will play most of the second half with maybe Ingle Martin getting a series or two late in the game.
Atlanta lost to the Colts last week, 16-9 as a 3 1/2 point favorite and committed five turnovers. This team is just 1-3-1 ATS as a preseason favorite and tonight they will be giving a long look to rookie Matt Ryan who will QB into the third quarter.
We like the fact the Titans are going with Young and the starters for a while in this one. He's got something to prove in this preseason. Play Tennessee.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Great Lakes
Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Chicago White Sox
Play on: Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox has an outstanding 73-53 record so far this year, and they are on quite a roll of late going 8-1 in their last nine games. The Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Danks is a perfect 3-0 with a nice 2.50era vs the Tampa Bay Devil Rays since 1997, and he also has a very nice 10-5 record with a 3.11era overall this year. We look for the Chicago White Sox to roll over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in this key American League showdown for the home win tonight.
Black Widow Sports
1* on New York Yankees -169
The Yankees are a great bet no matter how much juice you have to lay down tonight. Mike Mussina is one of the few starters that can be counted upon at this time of the year for New York. Mussina is 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA this year, but he’s been even better on the road. Mussina is 6-1 with a 3.05 ERA in nine road starts. The key here is how badly his opponent, Radhames Liz, has pitched for the Orioles. Liz features a 7.49 ERA in all starts and an 11.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. Liz cannot hang with Mussina here. Take the Yankees on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Braves/Cardinals OVER 9
Adam Wainwright comes off the DL to make his first start since June 7th. Wainwright will be rusty in his first start back, and Charlie Morton will continue to be terrible for the Braves. Morton is 3-7 with a 5.95 ERA as a starter this season. The OVER is 4-0 in four games between the Cards and Braves this season. The OVER is 12-3 in all meetings between these teams over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 14-3 OVER vs. an NL team with a batting average of .275 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Braves are 9-0 OVER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better in the second half of the season this season. Both teams put up plenty of runs tonight. Bet the OVER 9 runs.
DUNKEL
NY Yankees at Baltimore
The Orioles open a series with the Yankees looking to take advantage of New York's 1-10 record on the road when the total is listed from 10 to 10 1/2. Baltimore is the underdog pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+165). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, AUGUST 22
Game 951-952: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.866; Cubs (Marquis) 15.570
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-270); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+235); N/A
Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Maddux) 14.380; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.272
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Under
Game 955-956: Houston at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.227; NY Mets (Santana) 15.998
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-200); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.191; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.891
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-240); Under
Game 959-960: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Morton) 12.992; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.335
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under
Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.942; Colorado (Hernandez) 16.244
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 963-964: Florida at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.071; Arizona (Johnson) 17.118
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-200); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Baek) 13.839; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.607
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-215); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-215); Over
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 15.517; Baltimore (Liz) 16.072
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175) 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+165); Under
Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Byrd) 15.687; Toronto (Marcum) 15.319
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over
Game 971-972: Cleveland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.148; Texas (Harrison) 15.727
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 13.603; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.000
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+165); Under
Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Jackson) 16.099; White Sox (Danks) 17.769
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-155); Under
Game 977-978: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 16.485; LA Angels (Saunders) 16.050
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under
Game 979-980: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 13.349; Seattle (Feierabend) 14.764
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Over
Marc Lawrence
5* New England
Matt Fargo
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is playing some of its best baseball of the season and despite being out of the American League East race, it is still in the mix of the Wild Card. The Blue Jays took two of three against the Yankees and now trail Boston by seven games so this three-game series could be a make or break for the remainder of the season. Toronto has won four of its last five, seven of its last nine and dating back to July 22nd, it is 18-10 over its last 28 games. Pitching remains the strength of this team with an ERA of 3.12 at home and 2.93 over its last 10 games.
Boston took two of three in Baltimore to remain 4.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the division while staying tied with the Twins in the Wild Card race. Boston is 30-36 away from home and even though it has been winning on the road more of late, it remains very erratic. The pitching is at the top of that list as the staff has a 6.24 ERA over the last 10 games and has allowed run totals of 11, 15 and 17 over the last eight games. The Red Sox are 6-13 in their last 19 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Shawn Marcum had a rough start after coming off the disabled list on July 22nd. He went 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA in his first three starts but he has once again found his groove that he had prior to his DL stint. Over his past three starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and the third would have been a quality outing but he was removed after five innings due to having a 10-1 lead. That game was against Boston and he is now 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his career against Boston with Toronto winning all five of his starts.
Paul Byrd counters for Boston and his first start in a Red Sox uniform was anything but a good one. He allowed four runs in 7.1 innings which isn?t horrible but he allowed 10 hits in the process. He has not been very effective on the road this season as he went 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA in 14 starts with the Indians. Cleveland went 4-10 in those games and while the Indians are no Red Sox, that is not good pitching either way. Over his last five starts against Toronto, he has a 4.73 ERA. Play Toronto Blue Jays 1.5 Units
Tom Stryker
Texas vs Cleveland
Pick: OVER
With the way Cleveland's Carmona is throwing the ball right now and having him face a Texas offense that can pound out runs with ease, this over investment should sail over the posted number.
The last time Carmona faced the Rangers (back on May 23rd) he was crushed for six earned runs and five hits in only 2.0 innings of work. Overall, in his last six trips to the bump, Fausto was tagged for 30 earned runs, 19 walks and 32 hits in only 28.0 innings of work. That adds up to a lofty 9.64 ERA! History won't be on Carmona's side either. In four starts against the Rangers, No. 55 owns a soft 1-3 mark and an elevated 5.56 ERA!
There is solid technical support that backs this selection too. Texas has gone over the mark in 26 of their last 35 against teams from the AL Central division (1 tie) and 17 of their last 25 when matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage less than .500.
The last four meetings in this series have produced 13, 24, 19 and 22 runs respectively. That's an average of 19.5 runs per game! Take the OVER.
Gamblers Ally
2 Units Each
Texans
Philly/NE Over
GB/Den Under
Titans/Atl Under
Dwayne Bryant
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Milwaukee has taken 20 of the last 26 meetings at Miller Park, including the last nine in a row. Milwaukee will send a hot pitcher to the mound in Dave Bush, who's 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander has pitched at least seven innings in five of his last seven games, going 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA in that span.
Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Zach Duke (4-11, 5.26), who's 0-7 with a 6.65 ERA in his last 12 starts and has allowed 13 homers in his last eight. The rough stretch includes an 11-6 loss at Milwaukee on July 6, when the left-hander gave up six runs in 2.1 innings. Duke is 0-3 with a 7.76 ERA in six games at Miller Park.
Take Milwaukee -1.5