JOHN RYAN
Philadelphia Eagles vs.New England Patriots (NFL)Aug 22, 2008 7:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -2.5/-108 New England Patriots
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New England ? AiS shows a 72% probability that NE will win this game by 4 or more points. AiS shows an 85% probability that NE will gain a minimum of 3.0 Rushing yards per carry. Note that Philadelphia is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1993. AiS also projects a 90% probability that NE will gain a minimum of 75 yards rushing in this game. Note that Philadelphia is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1993. The line alone puts the Eagles in a weak role for this game. They are just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1993. Any team, including the great dynasty called the Patriots, have a need to play well after going 0-2 in the pre-season. The play of the Patriots in their first two games, both unpalatable losses, has been tough to digest. New England still has all the ingredients for greatness, but has struggled to find the right mix on offense and defense. The Tom Brady-less offense has scored just two touchdowns in 23 possessions. The defense, which fared well in the opener against the Ravens, surrendered 234 yards and 17 points in the first half of Sunday's 27-10 loss to the Buccaneers. The Patriots can ill afford to serve up another poor performance tonight against the Eagles (1-1) at Gillette Stadium because unlike an unready restaurant, they can't postpone their opening. They'll be playing the Chiefs at Gillette Sept. 7 for real, whether or not they need more time to find a winning recipe. Take NE
Larry Ness
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels -175
The Twins opened their longest road trip since 1969 (14 games) with a 2-1 win (12 innings) in Anaheim last night against the Angels. Winning again tonight will be tough. The lefty vs lefty matchup favors the Angels, as LA is 24-10 ve lefties this year (13-5 at home), while the Twins are only 2-7 in road night games vs left-handers in '08. Joe Saunders of the Angels is one lefty not many teams want to face. He "earned his stripes" the last two seasons being used as a spot starter, as well as being constantly shuttled back and forth from the minors to the majors. Through all that, he went 15-8 (4.55 ERA), with the Angels going 21-10 in his 31 starts. He'll enter this game 14-5 with a 3.14 ERA on the year, with LA going 18-6 (plus-$1,160) in his 24 starts, which makes him MLB's third-biggest "money-maker" among starting pitchers in '08. He's faced the Twins just once in '08, winning 1-0 at Minnesota (8 IP / 4 hits). and is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA against the Twins in just two career starts vs them. Glen Perkins is Minnesota's starter tonight. Also a lefty, he's done a solid job as a starter this year, after making 23 relief appearances in his first two seasons with the club ('06 and '07). He's 10-3 with a 4.17 ERA on the year (team is 12-7 in his 19 starts) but has allowed 18 ERs over 32.1 innings of his last five starts, for a 5.01 ERA. Don't expect the Angel bats to be 'quiet' tonight. Take LA.
TED SEVRANSKY
Mariners / A's Under 9
The VSE NFL Power Play for Friday is:
10* Take Atlanta (-3) over Tennessee (NFL Power Play)
Atlanta
• 9-3 ATS in pre-season after scoring 14 points or less the last game
• 8-0 ATS in pre-season after a turnover margin of -3 or worse
• 10-4 ATS in pre-season as a home favorite of 3 points or less
5* Take New England (-2.5) over Philadelphia (Bonus Play)
New England
• 4-0 SU in pre-season vs. Philadelphia at home
• 20-6 SU in pre-season vs. NFC East Division Opponents
• 5-1 SU & ATS in pre-season coming off 2 or more losses
Oscarxena Sports
Philadelphia/New England Under 37 1/2 -1.13 (3.5 Unit Play)
Brady may or may not play but either way I look for the Patriots defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder here as they have not played very well so far this preseason. The Patriots backup QB's are horrible so not sure how much they will be able to score against a stiff Eagles defense. The Eagles will be playing without their top two WR's in this game which should help keep the scoring down as well. I think we will see more FG's than TD's in this one and as long as special teams don't break this one open I think this is a very safe bet Under.
DAVE MALINSKY
4* LOS ANGELES/PHILADELPHIA Over
Picking up Greg Maddux does add a veteran presence to the pitching
rotation, and helps to fill the hole left by the absence of Brad
Penny. But it may also leave them a bit disappointed by what they are
going to see some nights. As we have written often the past two
years, there is nothing special at all about his stuff, but he has
been able to survive because Petco Park was the ideal place for
someone that works the way that he does. He could work the strike
zone and get a lot of easy contact outs in a venue where the ball
does not carry very well, and as such the past two years he was able
to work to a 3.13 tune from that mound over 181.1 innings. But it has
been an entirely different story on the road, where his allowance
soars to 5.08 over 170 frames. Tonight he works in a setting that is
not conducive for him to be successful at all, particularly with his
ability to fool the Phillie hitters lessened by their second quick
look at him, with that last being that embarrassment at San Diego
last Friday, when he only only a single run through a seven-inning
stint that required just 85 pitches.
Should there be concerns about how well he pitched that night? No ?
it was Petco doing its thing, with Philadelphia winning that game
1-0. And the run was supplied on a blast from Pat Burrell, who has
hit Maddux to a .340 lifetime tune, with three homers. In this park
they will relish the quick second-look opportunity, and also work
there way through a Dodger bullpen that has lacked consistency since
Takashi Saito went on the DL.
There will be plenty of Los Angeles runs tonight. At 134.2 innings,
off of only working 121 LY, Kyle Kendrick looks like he has hit the
wall. Two starts back the Dodgers racked him for seven runs on nine
hits in only 3.1 innings at Chavez Ravine, and he followed that up
with an awful outing against the punchless Padres in Petco, allowing
ix runs in just 3.2 frames. In those two games he has needed 154
pitches to merely get through seven innings, and he walked away with
a frightening ratio of eight walks vs. only two strikeouts. The only
time in his last five starts that he had more strikeouts than walks
came vs. a hapless Washington offense, and when a pitcher that does
not have great stuff to begin with (164 hits allowed vs. only 61
strikeouts) begins to fade, there is nothing to fall back on.
3* HOUSTON over NY METS
The oddsmakers have been forced to deal some favorites in awfully
high ranges over the course of this week, and the books have had to
sweat through most of them cashing. That is going to work well for
our purposes in the weeks ahead, as it creates the kind of value we
find in games like this one. It is one thing for a struggling side
that lacks talent and intensity to be taking on a contender, but it
is another matter entirely when we have what Houston brings to the
table tonight.
The Astros sport a winning record, and have gone on a 17-7 run in
their last 24 games. Included in that stretch was a 3-0 home sweep of
the Mets in which they out-scored them by nine runs, despite having
seven fewer outs to work with. In Roy Oswalt we have a veteran with
an ace mentality that will relish this kind of spotlight, and note
just how good Oswalt?s form has been as he makes up for lost time
following a sub-par start to the season ? it is a 3-0/1.64 over his
last three starts, and the only time that Houston has lost in his
last seven outings came when an injury forced him out of a game after
only a single inning. With Thursday off, the entire bullpen also
comes in rested and ready.
Yes, Johan Santana brings a 2-0/1.96 over his last three starts, but
when you get to face the Padres, Nationals and Pirates in succession
there is nothing all that special about the numbers. This will be a
quick ?second look? for the Astros after facing him at home on August
2nd, and in facing a left-hander for the fourth time in five games,
the adjustments are easier to make. It all adds up to the Mets being
vastly over-priced in this one.
4* SAN DIEGO/SAN FRANCISCO Under
What happens when two weak offenses meet in good pitcher?s ballparks?
Not a whole lot. After these two played to an Over in their first
head-to-head encounter on this field back on April 7th it has been a
remarkable run of nine straight Under?s. You might see an 8-1 from
other charting, but as always we cut all results off at the end of
the regulation nine innings, and on May 30th an Under 8 that was
sitting on 3-3 after nine frames eventually became a 7-3 San Diego
win.
Is the run of nine straight Under?s enough to warrant our use of
?remarkable?? Yes, if you consider that four of those games remained
Under the Total despite going into extra innings. That is a rather
neat trick. It is also what we expect to see tonight.
The Padres have been over-powered all season by quality starters, and
they have not come close to measuring Tim Lincecum yet. He has
checked them to a 1.03 tune over 26.1 innings, with a dominating
ratio of 29 strikeouts vs. only 18 hits allowed, with San Diego not
hitting a single home run. And Lincecum?s form is simply lights-out
right now, with 36 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed over his last
four starts.
Lincecum could have more than 13 wins if there was some offensive
support behind him, but once again he can not count on much. A
struggling offense will have difficulties in their first real look at
Cha Seung Baek, who they have seen for exactly one inning. Baek has
worked to a solid 3-0/2.81 on the road since becoming a Padre, and
brings solid form off of his last outing, a loss to the Phillies in
which he only allowed one earned run in six innings, and had more
strikeouts than hits allowed. And because San Diego was not in the
hunt against Brandon Webb last night, all key arms are rested and
ready from the bullpen for the latter stages.
Not only do we have a pitcher?s park tonight, but also pitcher?s
weather ? with the temperature falling into the 50?s we can remember
back to Mark Twain?s classic ?the coldest winter I ever spent was a
summer in San Francisco? line.
4* DALLAS over HOUSTON
Through the years our very best pre-season situations have been those
in which a very good team brings a sense of urgency to a game. At 0-2
the Cowboys have that in their first appearance in front of the home
fans since losing to the Giants on this field in the playoffs back in
January. And Wade Phillips is telling us just what we want to hear.
This will be treated like a regular-season affair by Dallas, which
has meant game-planning in practice this week, and the playing
rotation will have the starters on the field well into the third
quarter. Creating an additional spark is the presence of Pacman Jones
in the starting lineup, and his coverage skills are going to help to
open up even more blitz packages from the Phillips playbook. Do not
be surprised to see plenty of that happening tonight, after the
Cowboy coach criticized his own defensive play calling as being to
vanilla in last week?s poor showing at Denver.
The Texans will also play their starters into the third quarter, but
at 2-0 the scoreboard result does not bring any urgency. And because
of their struggles to find consistency running the football, it can
leave QB Matt Schaub in a precarious setting against those Dallas
blitzes. As such do not be surprised if Gary Kubiak?s game plan stays
on the conservative side, trying to avoid Schaub taking more hits
than necessary.
If this were a regular season game the line would be at least a full
field goal higher than it is. That is where the value is found for
these settings ? we have a good team ready to step to a higher level,
yet the line does not reflect it. And with the Cowboys also
remembering well LY?s 26-16 road loss in the ?Governor?s Cup? battle,
when they felt that the celebrating in Houston was a little too
exuberant, we expect them to break this one wide open.
BRANDON LANG
25 DIMES Broncos
5 Dimes Titans
5 Dimes STL Cards run line
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE DIAMOND RUN LINE DOMINATOR
Milwaukee w/Bush -1.5 -135
SportsKingz
Dodgers +120
Yankees -170
Oakland -105
NFL
Denver -3
Mr East
Houston Astros @ New York Mets
4 units Houston Astros +186
A great pitching matchup in New York tonight as Roy Oswalt of the Astros, faces off against Johan Santana of the Mets. Santana has pitched very well of late, as he carries a 1.96 ERA into this one over his last 3 games. Roy Oswalt however, has pitched even more brilliantly for the Astros, as he carries a 1.64 ERA into this one off his last 3 starts. This one may very well come down to the bullpen, and that has been the achillies heel of the Mets all season, as the bullpen has imploded on several occasions. The Mets, on the season, have blown an amazing 20 save opportunities, and with Oswalt able to match Santana, we love the long odds in a close game, and will ride the Astros here.
AJ Apollo
NFLX 3* Titans/Falcons under 35
NFLX 3* Green Bay +3
BIG AL
NFLX Rivalry GOY
At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New York Jets over the New York Giants. This will be a VERY difficult game for Eli Manning & Co. to win. First of all, the Jets have a 2-day rest advantage over the Giants. The Jets played the Redskins on Saturday (and lost 13-10), while the Giants played this past Monday against Cleveland (and won 37-34). Additionally, the Giants have a game five days after this one vs. the New England Patriots, in a Super Bowl rematch. So, even though the Jets are a city rival of the Giants, could one forgive the Super Bowl Champs if their focus was on next Thursday's game vs. the Patriots? Additionally, Super Bowl Champs are an awful bet (0-9 ATS last 9) in the Preseason off a win and cover, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss. This game means a lot more to Brett Favre and the Jets, and they'll cover the spread. Take the Jets.
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE
CHICAGO CUBS -1.5 -120
CHICAGO WHITE SOX -155
LA DODGERS +124
ST LOUIS -185NFL EARLY RELEASE
GREEN BAY +3.5
Adding
Houston+185
Scott Spreitzer
NFL PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR! *10-4, 71% Run! (Friday)
I'm taking the points with the Packers on Friday night, my Preseason Game of the Year! The Denver defense, much maligned in 2007, will face their first real test of preseason play on Friday. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will finally have his full arsenal of receivers for the first time this exhibition season. Wide receiver Greg Jennings returned to practice this week and it was like he hadn't missed a step. There was "no ring rust, whatsoever" as Mike McCarthy put it. Jennings and the starting offense is expected to play into the third quarter against the Broncos. RB Ryan Grant will be the only offensive skill weapon that Rodgers won't have access to in this week's dress rehearsal. Rodgers has reacted well to the full slate of go-to-guys in the passing game. In fact, in Wednesday's lone competitive 11-on-11 period of practice, the Packer signal caller completed 100% of his passes. Having a healthy Greg Jennings on the field on Friday means the Broncos will not be able to double-cover Donald Driver. And, Driver can go back to being the 10-to-15 yards down field, possession receiver, rather than trying to be Rodgers main deep threat. Green Bay also has been forced to use former practice-squad receiver Chris Francies when the starters were on the field in their first two games. That will no longer be an issue. Also, thus far in preseason play, teams have doubled Driver and not allowed any deep seams in the first team offense's limited snaps. Ol' #4 may not be under center any longer, but we'll finally see much of last season's second-ranked NFC offense on Friday night...at least for most of the first three quarters. That's bad news for the mediocre Bronco defense. And, while Green Bay still features a battle for backup at QB, the Broncos are set on their regular season rotation, which gives the Packers another competitive edge. As far as technnical capping is concerned, playing on certain preseason teams to bounce back from weak performances has helped the bankroll, substantially. In fact, playing ON teams that were out-gained by at least 150 yards in their previous game has led to a 52-29, 64% ATS run. This Denver team has allowed a hefty 643 total yards through their first two games, including 324 yards last week, despite Dallas' "going through the motions" performance. The Broncos will pay for their mediocrity tonight. I'm taking the points with the Packers, my Preseason GOY.
Akmens
4* Boston/Tor Under
4* Colorado
4* Arizona
4* San Diego/San Francisco Over