Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
The Twins had lost six in a row to the Jays as they began the series on Tuesday. Minnesota let a 5-1 lead slip away in that game (lost 7-5) and then last night, after scoring to take a 5-4 lead in the top of the ninth, closer Joe Nathan couldn't hold the lead, suffering his sixth blown save (Twins lost 6-5 in 11 innings). The Twins have now dropped EIGHT of their last 11 games but luckily, remain just one game back of the White Six in the AL Central. Meanwhile, Toronto will attempt to make it NINE straight wins over the Twins, going back to last year. Jesse Litsch (9-8, 4.01 ERA) gets the call for Toronto and he was not sharp in his most recent outing (last Thursday), allowing 10 hits but only three ERs in a 3-2 loss at Tampa. That game followed two strong outings from Litsch, since his return from the minors in mid-August. Litsch had been demoted after a three-start stretch (spanning the All Star game) in which he had allowed 22 hits and 15 ERs over 12.2 innings (10.66 ERA). Litsch had pitched 13 innings without allowing a single ER in games against Detroit and Boston, prior to that shaky outing against the Rays. While the Twins are definitely reeling, they do have Kevin Slowey on the mound, who will enter this game 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA over his last five starts (team is 4-1). Slowey's made two previous starts on Minnesota's never-ending road trip, going 1-0 (team is 2-0) with a 2.92 ERA (15 Ks and just four walks). I may be "spitting into the wind" here, but I'll back Slowey and the Twins.
Ben Burns
Game: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Liriano has pitched very well. However, the Twins have lost his last two starts and they've been really struggling overall. After getting swept by the Jays, they're now just 3-9 their last 12 games. Tonight, they'll be up against Detroit's most consistent and profitable pitcher. With Galarraga at 8-2 with a 2.62 ERA on the road, consider backing the visitors.
Stephen Nover
New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
A brutal situational spot and a cold Andy Pettitte put me on the underdog Mariners.
The Yankees had to travel cross-country following last night's huge loss to Tamp Bay. This marks the fourth different venue in six days for the overrated Yankees. The Mariners, on the other hand, were idle on Thursday.
Seattle hasn't been playing bad, winning seven of its past 10. They have several hitters, including Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre and Yuniesky Betancourt, that have good career numbers versus Pettitte.
Pettitte hasn't been sharp lately. He's been tagged for 12 earned runs in his last two starts, spanning 11 innings. He's allowed 20 hits and four walks during this span.
Highly-touted reliever Brandon Morrow makes his starting debut for Seattle. This is a huge game for him. He's been tremendous in relief, unscored upon in his last six appearances.
At this price, the home 'dog is worth an investment.
David Malinsky
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: 4* HOUSTON
Has anyone ever played as well for as long of a stretch at these Astros without generating any market adjustments at all? Tonight’s line tells us that. The current Houston run is at 27-10, and in truth the quality of baseball has been even better than that. No team in the Major League’s has played a more difficult schedule in that span, and they have gone an impressive 17-8 against the Cubs, Brewers, Mets and Cardinals. Since August 1st they have only played 11 games against teams that are currently under .500, but they went 10-1 ion those games, out-scoring the opposition by 35 runs.
Yet here we find them tonight against a losing team, taking a big price. It shows us market mistakes in two directions – first in not acknowledging just how good the Astros have been, and also in not recognizing how much Ubaldo Jimenez has fallen off the table. At 167.2 innings, more than double what he worked LY, Jimenez would be a prime candidate for hitting “The Wall”, and he has. Over his last five starts he has worked to a 1-3/7.36, with a 1.99 WHIP that tells us that the base numbers are not a fluke. He did not last beyond the sixth inning in any of those games, and that is despite going up against some weak competition – like the Reds and Nationals from this mound, and the Padres in Petco Park. He has labored to the tune of nine walks in 9.2 frames over his last two starts, and could easily get worse before bottoming out.
Houston counters with the under-rated Brian Moehler, who has worked to a 10-5/3.83 as a starter, with the Astros going 14-7 when he has taken the hill in that role. And in terms of competition, Moehler has started wins over the Red Sox, Cubs (twice), Brewers, Phillies and Cardinals (twice). In no way should he be an underdog of this much, and with the Houston bullpen rested and ready behind him, the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
MIN / DET Over 8
This line is way too low considering these two bullpens and considering the very capable lineups of both of these clubs. The Twins bullpen has suddenly become a glaring weakness after being a strength for much of this season. Minnesota has allowed 21 runs in their last three games and these problems are unlikely to stop against a very potent Tigers lineup. Detroit was held to one run yesterday but they had previously scored 22 runs in their last three games! Francisco Liriano is a big name pitcher but he has struggled against the Tigers in his career and they've pounded left-handers for much of this season. As for the Tigers Armando Galarraga, he certainly has impressed often this season. However, he's 0-3 in his career against Minnesota and they've hit him at a .291 clip. Also, the Tigers right-hander has given up 36 hits in his last 33.7 innings so he?s certainly not just dominating teams right now. Galarraga has also allowed six homers in those five starts (33.7 innings). The Detroit hurler has struggled against left-handed lumber and he will see plenty of that tonight against the Twins. As you can see, both teams should enjoy plenty of success at the plate this evening and that should send this game easily over the total.
Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-145) over Detroit
1.5-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+120) over New York Mets
1.5-Unit Play. Take Cleveland (-140) over Kansas City
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-140) over Cincinnati
1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-1.5, -165) over San Diego
1-Unit Play. Take #Houston (+135) over Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-160) over Los Angeles Angels
1-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-1.5, +110) over Tampa Bay
SportsKingz
MLB
METS -140
BOSTON -140
YANKEES -160
ST. LOUIS -115
BALL ST. -6
OVER 60
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Washington Nationals +155
The Nationals are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 5-1 in Bergmann's last 6 starts vs. the Braves. I like the Nats to come storming back after being shut out yesterday. The Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 overall, 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Braves are only 6-14 in their last 20 home games, 8-20 in their last 28 vs. National League East, and 6-18 in their last 24 overall. The Braves are also 0-4 in Jurrjens' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Nats.
John Ryan
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Diego Padres
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego – Nailed SD as a 5* Monster last night as a whopping +211. Wagering just $100 per * unit made well over $1000 on the wager alone. Tue in 7* Blowout winner Anaheim, Vanderbilt as a 5* Monster w/ a bonus 1.5* play on a +350 money line, and both side and total in the Giants/Washington game and you have an awesome day tacked onto an already strong last couple of weeks. I’m not surprised at all that SD is a 3* graded Major Live Dog tonight even though they are facing the “unhittable” Sabathia. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-64 making 59.6 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +150 or more after having lost 3 of their last 4 games facing an opponent after having lost 4 of their last 5 games. Simple, secure, and a money maker over time with a the average play a +175.5 DOG. These types of systems under score the fact that making money in the ML sports of the NHL and MLB are to identify DOGS that win; and this win percentage needs only to be around the 50% level for significant profits to be had. Last, Milwaukee is in a very weak role for this game as a team noting they are 5-13 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season this season. Take SD.
KELSO
High Rollers Club
10 units Indians
10 units Twins
10 units Parlay
Dr Bob
BALL ST. (-7.0) vs. Navy
Both of these teams ought to be able to move the ball at will in this game, as Navy’s ground attack should work very well against a sub-par Ball State run defense while Cardinals’ star quarterback Nate Davis slices up a horrible Navy pass defense. Navy was among the worst teams in the nation against the pass last season (8.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense) and, while improved, they will be still be horrible against aerial attacks. Navy gave up 314 passing yards at 6.3 yppp last week against a Towson State team that would average only about 4.5 yppp on the road against an average team. Nate Davis was good the last two seasons (0.7 yppp better than average) and he should be considerably better than that in his 3rd year at the helm with all of his receivers returning from last season. Davis completed 21 of 24 passes for 290 yards last week against Northeastern, a team that is actually better than Navy in pass defense. Navy RB Shun White exploded for 348 rushing yards on just 19 carries in last week’s 41-13 win over Towson and White has now run for 1567 yards at an amazing 10.6 ypr in his career. The Midshipmen appear to be even better than last season running the ball and Ball State gave up 528 rushing yards at 8.3 yards per rushing play to Navy last season and won’t be able to stop them this year either. My ratings favor Ball State by 8 points in this game, but underdogs that can run at will are usually pretty good bets and Navy applies to an 85-34 ATS game 2 situation and a 93-34-1 ATS revenge angle. I like Navy plus the points in this one. I also favor the Over in this game, as I project 69 points and the over/under opened at 59 points. BALL ST. (-7.0) 36 Navy 33
Mr A
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Philadelphia has lost six of the last 8 games against the Mets and four of the last five in New York.
Philadelphia's Brett Myers (8-10, 4.40) is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 8-6 with a 5.19 ERA in 24 career outings, including 19 starts aversus the Mets.
New York's Mike Pelfrey (13-8, 3.66) is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA in three career starts versus the Phillies.
Philadelphia Brett Myers is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last eight starts, but the Phillies haven't been successful on the road with Myers, dropping 13 of his last 17 road starts. Meanwhile, the Mets are 13-3 in Palfrey’s last 16 starts and have won eight of his last 9 at home. Take the New York Mets at Shea Stadium. New York has won six of their last 7 contests overall, 18-7 SU in its last 25 at home.
New York Mets - 130
NCAAF
Ball State - 7½
Ballinpicks
Friday Night we have 2 Offensively Minded schools going at it with Navy visiting Ball St! If you have been with me in the past years, you know that Navy has always been one of my main horses to ride! 2 Years ago, I think we rode them week in and week out! Times change though. I am going with Ball St in this one here! Both teams have good scoring offenses here, heck Navy has the best rushing offense in the game yr in and yr out! Why? Because frankly thats all they do! But they are damn good at it! What really kills Navy though is their lack of skill on Defense, especially in the secondary. That is where I expect Ball St to succeed with ease Friday Night! NAvy has their 2nd string QB running the offense as of now, since K-Ehnada is injured. Jarros Bryant ran the Navy Offense against no sort of run defense in his first game, but will find it much more difficult in this matchup. Ball St held NorthEastern to under 100 yards rushing last week, but then again who is Northeastern. Navy will get their yards on the ground, but their problems will come in crucial 3rd downs and so forth, while their Defense will not be a great help against the Ball St Offensive assault. This one will have lots of scoring, and should be a fun game from our side, but I do feel Ball St has more to offer in this game, and will cover the TD here!
3*: Ball St Cardinals -7
Tom Stryker
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are struggling a little bit right now and going on the road may help this team regain their focus. With 16 of 22 on foreign soil to close, Chicago knows it has to come to the park mentally prepared every day or suffer the consequences.
Getting up for this contest shouldn't be a problem for Cubs southpaw Ted Lilly. In three starts against the Reds this season, Lilly has been ripped for 11 earned runs and 14 hits in only 15.2 innings of work. That breaks down to a miserable 0-3 record and a lofty 6.32 ERA. Fortunately, the veteran left-hander has been solid on the road. As a guest, Ted has been touched for only 41 earned runs and 94 hits in 91.2 innings of work. That equates to a solid 7-3 record and a reliable 4.03 ERA!
Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo has been solid in his last three starts. The right-hander from Florida has been nicked for only four earned runs and 18 hits in 23.0 frames. That translates into a strong 1.57 ERA. Unfortunately, Arroyo's efforts at home have been average at best. With 91.2 home innings in the bank, Bronson has been tagged for 41 earned runs and 91 hits. That's only been good enough for a 6-6 overall record and a 4.03 ERA.
The trends favor the Cubbies in this game too. Chicago has cashed 14 of its last 17 on the road and 14 of its last 17 facing a sub .500 opponent. Meanwhile, the Reds have dropped 25 of their last 37 and 10 of their last 12 coming off a straight up win. Take Chicago with listed pitcher Lilly.
Wise Guy Handicapping
3 units Ball State -6
4 units Chicago Cubs -155