Beat Your Bookie
100-Minn
50-Toronto
100- Navy
O.C. Dooley
Navy/Ball State Over 61
Navy has just become the first school in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing THREE consecutive years. In Navy's opening week 41-13 rout of Towson State, Shun White set a Middies SCHOOL RECORD with an incredible 348 total yards on the ground. Speaking of school-records, Navy achieved that one year ago when they averaged a whopping 444 yards per contest on the ground. Even though they have since changed head coaches, it was business as usual for the Naval Academy in week one as they churned out 558 total yards on the ground. I am talking alot about their rushing attack because tonight they get a chance to face a horrible Ball State defense that in 2007 was ranked a disastrous #106 nationally in defending the rush. That Ball State defense has now allowed 16 of the past 20 opponents to rush for 100+ yards, so one would think Navy will be able to put a ton of points on the scoreboard with their option attack. But Ball State is just as lethal on offense and it was just one year ago when they upset Navy in a 34-31 overtime thriller. The Cardinals offense averaged 282 passing yards per game last year with sensational quarterback Nate Davis leading the way. Last weekend Davis picked up where he left off by passing for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns in what turned out to be a 48-14 romp of a highly inferior opponent. In that contest Davis ended up completing 87% of his pass attempts which was the third-best completion mark in school history. Davis and his prolific passing game which features a veteran corps of wide receivers will be going up against a Navy pass defense that ranked dead LAST nationally a year ago. Turning to the database I see that Ball State is 8-1 OVER when playing in the month of September, while Navy is an identical 8-1 OVER when cast as an underdog which is the case tonight. Navy has scored 30+ points in SEVEN consecutive games dating back to 2007, which is the longest current streak in the entire country
Phil Steel
3 Star Totals Club
Navy/Ball St. Over 61
Bobby Esposito
College Football
20,000 Dime - Ball St. -7.5 over Navy
Baseball
5000 Dime - N.Y.M. -130 over Phillies
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 48-27 since May 26!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. No one, especially the Mets themselves and their fans, will ever forget the team blowing a seven-game lead with 17 games remaining in '07. The Phillies eventually edged the Mets by one game last year, in winning the NL East. The Mets will host the Phillies this weekend at Shea in a three-games series, which be the teams final meetings of the season. The Phillies are three games behind the Mets as of Friday and both clubs have 22 games remaining. The Phillies are one of a handful of MLB teams with a winning road record (37-35) but Philadelphia enters this series just 5-9 over its last 14 away games. Meanwhile, the Mets were just 62-56 after a losing an August 11 make-up with the Pirates, but have caught fire by going 17-5 over their last 22 games. The Mets should be confident entering this series, as unlike last year when the Phillies took 12 of 18 games from them (including all SEVEN games played between August 26 and September 16), the Mets have won 10 of 15 meetings this year with the Phillies. Starting for Philadelphia is Brett Myers and for New York, it's Mike Pelfrey. Both are pitching well and have compelling storylines. Myers won 50 games as a starting pitcher for the Phils from 2003-06 but last year was converted into the team's closer, with mixed results (3-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 21 saves). Philly moved him back into their starting rotation at the start of this year and Myers flopped badly. He opened the season 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA over his first 17 starts and was demoted to the minors. However, after a relatively brief stay, he has returned to the majors and pitched extremely well. He's 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA in the eight starts since his return to the bigs, with the Phillies going 6-2. That's great but Pelfrey has been just as good and for a longer stretch. Pelfrey showed few signs of being "ready for primetime" last year, going 3-8 with a 5.57 ERA in 13 starts (4-9). He struggled at the start of '08 as well but he'll enter this game as New York's leader in wins with a 13-8 mark and a 3.66 ERA. The team is 16-11 (plus-$462) in his starts on the year but note that since May 31, they are 14-4 in his starts, as Pelfrey has allowed two ERs or less 12 times! The Mets are opening an eight-game homestand with this series and will get Washington for two games next, plus Atlanta for three after that. Note that the Nats are 54-87 overall (23-47 on the road) and the Braves are 61-80 overall (24-48 on the road). What a great chance for the Mets to put some distance between them and the Phillies. The distancing starts tonight! Las Vegas Insider on the NY Mets.
Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
Atlanta w/Jurrjens -162
Powerplaywins
Red Sox -132
Cardinals -110
Yankees -150
BIG AL
At 10:10pm our selection is on the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total. These two teams have played their last nine games against each other in the Bronx, and the Yankees have won eight of those nine games. In this, the first and only series of the season between the Yankees and Mariners to be played in Seattle, the Mariners are hoping to begin a streak of their own and perhaps play the role of spoiler as the regular season comes to a close. This is a very interesting pitching matchup with Yankee veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte going up against 24-year-old righthander Brandon Morrow (1.47 ERA this year out of the bullpen). What makes this a big deal for Seattle is the fact that Morrow is one of their top pitching talents, who until now, was too valuable in relief to be given a shot at the rotation. He has been in a similar situation to New York's own Joba Chamberlain until the latter was finally given a chance to start for the Yanks earlier this season. If Seattle is to contend next season and beyond, they will need a big-time starter to step up and join the likes of King Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard so this start for Morrow makes perfect sense right now. Seattle will certainly keep a close eye on Morrow's pitch count, but if he is successful in an efficient manner against the Pinstripes then don't be surprised to see him go seven innings tonight. If he can do that, then he'll turn it over to what has been one of the few bright spots on this team this season (i.e., the bullpen) with a shot to win his first Major League start. The under is 12-3 in Pettitte's last 15 road starts. Take the 'under'.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOUCHDOWN WINNER
303 Navy +7
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE
CLEVELAND-140
ADDING
HOUSTON +142
EZWINNERS
3 STAR: (960) ST. LOUIS (-$113) over Florida
(Listing Looper only)
(Risking $396 to win $300)3 STAR: (966) LA DODGERS (-$123) over Arizona
(Listing Lowe only)
(Risking $369 to win $300)
5 STAR NAVY/BALL ST OVER
Root
Chairman- Rangers
Millionaire- Dodgers
William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL WINNER
Cleveland w/Reyes -140
BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
REASON FOR PICK: I'm laying the points with Ball State. The Cardinals went on the road and upset a better Navy team last season. This season, with a ton of returning starters, Ball State figures to be much improved. Additionally, the Cardinals are playing at home this time and catching Navy playing its first regular season 1-A game without former coach Paul Johnson. The Cardinals have been great under Coach Brady Hoke in September in recent seasons, going 6-1 ATS their last seven lined September games. On the other hand, Navy hasn't fared particularly well at this time of the year, going 3-5 ATS its last eight lined September games, including 1-3 ATS last year. Last year's meeting resulted in a shootout as the Cardinals won by a score of 34-31. With 11 offensive starters back and coming off a 48-point effort in Week 1, the Cardinals are going to put up big numbers once again. That's particularly true when facing a Navy defense which gave up 330 passing yards to lowly 1-A Towson last week. The question will be whether or not the Midshipmen can keep up. I feel that answer will be no. Navy will get its yards on the ground. However, they won't come nearly as easily as they did last week, particularly when considering that the Ball State rush defense allowed just 96 rushing yards on 32 carries in its opening game. It should also be mentioned that the Navy QB is expected to be without QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who is currently listed as doubtful. They won with Jarod Bryant last week but this is obviously a very big step up in class. While they won last year's meeting as an underdog, the Cardinals are also 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were favored by eight points or less. Look for them to improve on those stats with a double-digit victory. *Annihilator
Indian Cowboy
Chicago Sky (+9.5) (POD)
Based on my handicapping, it would make no sense for me not to take the Sky here. This was the same team that won as outright dogs at New York (similar margin of a dog to Conn here but just smaller around 7 to 8 points), won outright at Washington, won outright at home against Detroit and recently lost at home to Seattle. So what? Seattle is a solid team with the likes of Sue Bird and Swin Cash. Chicago has beaten the Sky once already this year outright at home and the previous 2 times have lost by margins of 7 and 2. Who is to say the Sky can't be competitive here coming off a tough loss at home as they look to bounce-back? Worried about the Sky playing back to back? Well, they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 ballgames with 0 days rest and 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss while the Sun face a tough feat at home meeting the high demands of being a public favorite in the eyes of Vegas as they are 3-9 ATS at home.
Research that went into this game:
Note, that Connecticut is a big favorite over Chicago today, but the question begs does the Sky really need to be nearly 10 point dogs on the road. After all, this is the same team that beat Detroit at home, Washington on the road and New York on the road Outright. Sure, they lost to Seattle at home but Seattle is a solid team. Furthermore, Chicago is a great bounce-back team as their ATS results over the past 10 games looks as well L, W, W, W, L, L, W, W, W, W. Notice a trend? This team is 7-3 ATS of late and the only time they lost back to back ATS ballgames was at San Antonio and at Houston in back to back ballgames which is tough for any team. Chicago has never done worse than lose by 7 to the Sun, including a 2 point loss and winning outright once earlier this year.