florida booky busters
MLB
10/5/2007 at 5:00:00 PM
NY Yankees/Andy Pettitte at Cleveland/Fausto Carmona
Cleveland
TRACE ADAMS
Yankees-Cleveland UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Today we go to Fenway Park for a complimentary play on the Red Sox and we're taking them on the Run Line for another plus-money ticket.
The Red Sox cruised in Game 1, 4-0, behind the pitching of Josh Beckett and now look for more of the same as the Boston import Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40 ERA) shows everyone just how tired his arm isn't with a strong start tonight.
The Angels were never really in Game 1 as the Red Sox jumped ahead early and weren't ever threatened.
Matsuzaka was 1-0 in his last three outings with a 3.98 ERA and was 8-4 at home this season. He seemed to get some of his mid-season form back in his last outing, limiting the Twins to two runs on six hits in eight innings of a 5-2 victory. In each of his last two home starts he allowed just two runs.
For the Angels it's Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40) on the hill. He had a 7.63 ERA in his final three starts of the season, giving up 13 runs in 15 1/3 innings. Last time he faced the Red Sox was August 2006 when he allowed five runs over eight innings of a 5-4 loss. The Angels have won just once in his five starts against Boston.
Los Angeles is just 7-19 in its last 26 games at Fenway Park and just 2-6 in its last eight road playoff games.
Meanwhile Boston is 9-3 in its last 12 playoff games and 9-4 the last 13 times Matsuzaka has started at Fenway. The Angels might be overmatched in this series and will certainly fall behind 2-0 after tonight. Back Boston.
3* BOSTON Run Line
COMPUTER PLAYS
NO BEST BETS
5:07 p.m. Cleveland Indians + 110
8:37 p.m. Boston Red Sox - 155
Nevada Sharpshooter
Friday
Yankees -125 Over Indians
PLATINUM PLAYS
the Los Angeles Angels & Boston Red Sox Over 9½ runs
DARK HORSE
MLB - Angels +140 over Boston
HD'S ACTIONLINE
Boston & Angels over 9.5
JIM FEIST
(901) NY Yankees
(902) CLE Indians
Take "Under"
A couple of pitchers who know how to keep the ball down, something important in Jacobs Field. NY starter Andy Pettitte has a 2.54 ERA against Cleveland this season and has a better road ERA (3.95). The Indians have a sensational hard throwing sinkerballer in Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06 ERA). He's 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA at home where opponents hit just .238 off his electric stuff. The unders have been alive this posteason, starting 3-0, and this one has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. Play the Yankees/Indians under the total in Game 2
THE WUNDERDOG comp:
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston -1.5 runs +139
The postseason simply arrived at the wrong time for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero is hurting, and has been relegated to the DH role, weakening their outfield defense. Chone Figgins their catalyst at the top of the order is in a 1-26 slump (.038) and their top two pitchers Lackey and Escobar are having problems as well. Their pen has fallen off over the second half to now rank in the bottom third of the league. This is a team that was lethal at home, but very ordinary on the road. They finished the season in a team-wide offensive slump. The Angels have produced just 10 runs over their last six games, and are 36-186 in the process, with a team average of just .194. They have not gotten it done at Fenway the entire season, producing just 22 runs in eight games or 2.75 per game. Kelvim Escobar allowed three runs or less in 17 of his first 23 starts or 74% of the time, but finished very poorly allowing five runs or more in four of his last seven! Like the Yankees, the Angels just don't hit or score against quality pitching on the road. Their last 10 games against a quality starter on the road have produced 21 runs in 10 games or 2.1 runs a game. That spells trouble with Escobar on the mound having pitched to a 7.16 ERA over his last seven starts as he has now walked 13 in his last 23.2 innings, and this is a Sox lineup that takes a lot of pitches and draws a lot of walks. The Sox are here because of their pitching which is the only AL team with a staff ERA under four, and their pen ranks No. 2 in all of baseball at 3.10. Diasuke Matsusaka won 15 games, and perhaps was a bit less spectacular than the Sox thought he would be. The key issue upon his arrival was how would he react to pitching every fifth day instead of once a week? Here is the answer. Early in the season it wasn't a problem, but as the season got into summer, around mid-June you could see it was certainly an issue. From mid-June on when Matsusaka pitched in the regular rotation every fifth day he worked 45.1 innings, 51 hits, 33 earned runs, 39 Ks with an ERA of 6.55. When he worked with extra rest or every sixth day or more, here are his numbers over the same period. He worked 66.2 innings, 51 hits, 23 earned runs, 70 Ks, with an ERA of 3.10. To capsulate, Matsusaka was 3.5 runs better on extra rest, to which he is accustomed instead of six more hits, than innings pitched. He was 16 less and also from less than a strikeout per inning, to more than a strikeout per inning. The bad news for the Angels is he is working on extra rest for this game, and they have not faced him all season, which adds to his potential in this game. The Red Sox have been on fire when winning at Fenway, so if you’re going to take them to win, then the -1.5 makes sense. In their home wins the Red Sox have won by an average margin of 4.12 runs a game, and in their last 28 home wins they have been 24-4 to the -1.5 runline, and outscored the opponent by 4.21 runs a game. Conversely, in their road losses the Angels have gone down by 3.79 runs a game, and have lost 34 of 43 (79.1%), by two runs or more. Sox go up 2-0 in the series with a convincing win in game two
Larry Ness' ALDS Game Two 15* (151-51 this season!)-Angels/Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels
The Red Sox went 18-4 (plus-$1,000) at home in day games vs right-handers in the regular season but just 21-17 (minus-$890) in night games. They did open with a 4-0 win in Game 1 vs Lackey in a 6:35 ET time start but didn't do much with their bats after taking a 4-0 lead in the 3rd inning. They didn't need to, as Josh Beckett was superb. Will Dice-K give them a similar effort tonight? Red Sox manager Terry Francona made a bit of a surprising move when he opted to start Matsuzaka over Curt Schilling in the second game. Schilling is 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 15 career postseason starts, and also posted a 2.79 ERA in his final six starts of 2007. Francona chose Matsuzaka instead. Matsuzaka was a workhorse throughout his first major league season, going 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA and logging a team-high 204.2 innings. However, the Red Sox went just 17-15 (minus-$661) in his 32 starts this year. That heavy workload may have contributed to his 2-4 record and 7.14 ERA over his final eight outings (Boston lost eight of his last 13 starts!). Kelvim Escobar turned in his best season in 2007, going 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA. He was bothered by shoulder problems down the stretch but gave up one run over six innings in a 3-2 victory at Oakland on Saturday. Although he was a little shaky in some of his later outings this year, the Angels won EIGHT of his last nine starts, finishing 22-8 (plus-$951) in his 30 starts this year. 15* LA Angels.
Scott Spreitzer's Friday ALDS Grand Slam! *Perfect 2-0!
I'm taking the underdog Indians on Friday. The Yanks are once again laying a price due to public perception. New York's best chance to steal one at the "Jake" may have come with their game one matchup. Obviously, they couldn't get the job done. I think they're in a world of hurt in game two. Cleveland sends Fausto Carmona to the bump today. The Indians have won each of his last seven starts, and the righty owns a 1.78 ERA in his last five. The Tribe are a healthy 13-4 in his 17 home starts this season, where Indian opponents are averaging just 3.59 RPG. The wrong team is the fave, we'll take the underdog Indians on Friday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Chris Jordan
100* RED SOX RUN LINE - With a chance to put the Angels in a 2-0 hole, I'll side with Dice K in this one, as he comes in after looking pretty sharp against the Twins last Friday, allowing just two runs and six hits, while fanning eight. Matsuzaka comes in with plenty of rest, after having six days off, and should be comfy at home, where he was 8-4 in 14 Fenway Park starts.
This is the first time the Halos get a chance to see Dice K, and that's clearly on our side. When he pitched against a team he had not faced – there were 16 occasions - he went 9-6 with a 3.14 ERA, 36 walks and 116 strikeouts in 108-2/3 innings. Let's lay the run and a half here, as the Sox roll to a 2-0 lead.