SPORTS ADVISORS
San Diego (6-3) at N.Y. Mets (4-4)
The Mets send right-hander John Maine (0-0, 3.60 ERA) to the Citi Field mound to wrap up their home-opening three-game series against the Padres, who will start ace right-hander Jake Peavy (1-1, 3.52).
After taking Tuesday off following the Padres’ 6-5 win Monday night, New York bounced back with a 7-2 victory Wednesday, scoring five runs in its final two at-bats to post its first victory at Citi Field and end San Diego’s five-game winning streak. The Mets are on a 10-2 run against teams from the N.L. West, and they’ve won nine of their last 10 Thursday contests. The Padres are still on rolls of 5-1 overall and 4-1 against the N.L. East, but they also carry lengthy negative streaks of 17-38 on the road against right-handed starters and 16-37 in the third game of a series.
San Diego, which won five of seven games last year in this rivalry, is now 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, though New York has gone 10-4 in the last 14 clashes in the Big Apple.
Maine got a no-decision in his first outing of the year, a 5-4 loss at Florida in which he allowed two runs on two hits (both solo homers), with one walk and five strikeouts in five innings. He went 10-8 last year with a 4.18 ERA in 25 starts, including 5-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 11 home outings, though he missed the final five weeks of the season with a shoulder injury.
Maine has a pair of no-decisions in his two career starts against the Padres, posting an inflated 5.40 ERA, with both appearances coming in the 2007 season. The Mets have gone 9-4 in Maine’s last 13 home starts, 6-1 in his last seven Game 3 outings and 4-1 with the righty throwing on five days of rest.
Peavy has gone deep into both his starts this year, logging seven innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Dodgers on Opening Day, then going 8 1/3 innings in a 6-3 home win over the Giants on Saturday. In the latter outing, he allowed three runs on seven hits and no walks, with 10 strikeouts, giving him 18 Ks for the season in 15 1/3 innings. Peavy was a middling 10-11 last year despite a 2.85 ERA, going 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA on the highway.
Peavy is 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets, though like Maine, he hasn’t faced New York since 2007. The Pads are 7-3 in Peavy’s last 10 Thursday starts, but with their ace on the hill, they are also on slides of 2-5 on the road and 6-13 against the N.L. East.
The over is on a bundle of runs for New York, including 17-9-1 at home, 10-3-3 with Maine starting, 7-0-1 behind Maine at home and 19-7-1 in Thursday games. The over for the Padres is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 13-5-1 in Peavy’s last 19 road starts. Finally, in this rivalry, the “over” is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in New York and 4-1 with Peavy facing the Mets.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (3-5) at Seattle (7-2)
The Mariners, off to a strong start after losing a major league-worst 101 games last year, send rookie Chris Jakubauskas (1-0, 4.50 ERA) to the Safeco Field mound against fellow lefty Joe Saunders (1-1, 2.63) and the Angels to cap a three-game series.
On the strength of three home runs, including one from Ken Griffey Jr. and a grand slam from Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle powered its way to a sixth consecutive victory with an 11-3 rout of the Angels. The Mariners have surrendered a total of just 14 runs during their six-game streak, and they’ve now held fie of their first nine foes to three runs or fewer. Dating to last season, Seattle has won five straight home games, seven in a row against the A.L. West, five straight against lefty starters and fie straight as an underdog.
Los Angeles is just 2-6 in its last eight division contests and 1-5 in its last six versus winning teams, but the Halos have won eight of their last 12 on the highway. Also, despite dropping the first two games of this series, the Angels are still 35-17 in the last 52 meetings with the M’s, including 7-3 in the last 10 battles in Seattle.
Jakubauskas, who spent the last four years in independent baseball leagues, earned a roster spot with a stellar spring and he’s started his big-league career with two relief appearances, pitching two innings each at Minnesota on April 8 and at Oakland on Friday. The 6-foot-2 right-hander allowed a total of two runs on three hits in those four innings.
Saunders came up short at home Saturday against the Red Sox, taking the loss in a 5-4 setback in which he allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks in seven innings, as the Angels ended a seven-game winning streak with the lefty on the hill. Saunders was a solid 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 31 starts last year, including 10-3 with a sparkling 2.55 ERA in 15 road efforts.
Saunders is 4-1 with a 4.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners, including 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in four outings last year, with two of the wins coming at Seattle. The Angels are on numerous runs when Saunders takes the ball, including 39-16 overall, 19-7 on the highway, 21-7 against winning teams, 4-0 in division play and 5-1 with the southpaw favored.
The over for Seattle is on stretches of 8-3 in the A.L. West, 6-2 at home and 6-2 against lefty starters, and the over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 5-1-1 overall and 8-3 in division games. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 14 clashes in Seattle.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
Frank Jordan
Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Arizona has their ace Brandon Webb on the shelf and Dan Haren is 0-2 as they have started 3-6 at home. San Francisco is 2-7 on the year, but those 2 wins have come at home. Despite those two losses Dan Haren has an era of 2.08 as he has pitched in some bad luck, in this one look for the luck to switch over to him as he notches his first win over the not so big Giants. Play Arizona
Cajun Sports
Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins
The Washington Nationals will look to build upon their first win of the 2009 campaign as they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night in DC 8 to 2 after opening the season by going 0-7. That will be a tall order as the Marlins are coming in off a sweep of the Braves at Turner Field for the first time ever and are playing as well as anyone right now. Not only are the Fish getting timely hitting including a batting average of .282, they had nine or more hits eight times this season and their starting pitching and bullpen have been playing well. Ricky Nolasco will take the bump and try to extend the Marlins' winning streak to five as he takes the mound for the first time since Saturday's 8-4 loss to the New York Mets. He allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings. "I wasn't feeling too great," Nolasco told the teams' official Web site. Nolasco, though, has enjoyed success against Washington in his career, going 6-1 with a 4.10 ERA. On April 6, he earned the opening-day win over Washington as he struck out six in six innings in a 12 to 6 win. The Nationals will send John Lannan to the hill with his 0-2 record and ERA of 10.00; he was the losing pitcher in that first meeting with Nolasco. The Marlins are 7-1 when playing at Nationals Park and should get number eight tonight as they continue their solid play on offense and defense. Nolasco is 13-6 against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons, Fish are 5-1 the last six starts by Nolasco versus Washington and they are 21-7 their last 28 in this series. Washington is 18-43 versus teams with a win percentage of .600 or more and 17-42 when facing right-handed starters. Lay the chalk with the Fish as they get another easy win over the Nationals in DC on Friday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Florida Marlins 6 Washington Nationals 3
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
Hope everyone enjoyed Craig's Free MLB plays this week. Craig had another winner yesterday with the White Sox pulling off a close one in Tampa. Today our free play is going to be in the National League between Cincinnati and Houston. These divisional rivals are both in desperate need of wins to keep up with the tops teams in there division. Lets take a look at these two teams records and trends!!
Records
Cincinnati 4-4 Cueto 0-1 (6.00 ERA)
Houston 3-6 Oswalt 0-2 (6.23 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Reds are 4-9 in their last 13 games on grass.
-Reds are 3-8 in Cuetos last 11 starts.
-Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a home favorite.
-Astros are 8-2 in Oswalts last 10 starts vs. National League Central.
Pretty one sided trends in this match up. If that has not convinced you yet don't worry we have even more. Roy Oswalt is 24-1 in his career against the Cincinnati Reds. Yes that is not a misprint he has absolutely dominated the Reds. Houston will hit with confidence today now they are back in there home park. Oswalt will shut down the very poor hitting Reds lineup. Cueto will keep this game close early but even this young pitcher can't shut out the Astros. SCORE HOU 4 - CIN 1
Dave Cokin
MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS NEW YORK METS
Take: NEW YORK METS
Livan Hernandez is not exactly a pitcher who inspires confidence and the Mets just lost a series at their new home to the Padres. But I like the Mets to grab a win tonight as they face the Brewers. Dave Bush is a notoriously poor early season pitcher, with a career April-May ledger of 7-20. The Brewers aren't playing well at all, and even if they jump out to a lead here, their shaky bullpen could get victimized late. I'll lean to laying the spot with the Mets.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: L.A. Dodgers w/Wolf
When Randy Wolf takes the hill at home for the Dodgers against the Rockies this evening he'll do so knowing he is 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA in his career home team starts against Colorado. With Wolf off a solid spring look for him to come up a winner for the 11th time in his last 17 home starts in April here tonight.
James Patrick
O's vs. Red Sox
These American League Eastern Division rivals square off in Boston where the Red Sox have won 21 of 27 match ups and the Bosox will need a win out of Brad Penny with Dice-K going on the DL. Big Game James Patrick's Friday complimentary selection in Major League Baseball is Boston Red Sox.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: San Diego over Philadelphia
Not afraid to back the slow footed Padres in their initial visit to the Bank in 2009. After all, the visitor has started uncommonly fast this time around garnering a 6-3 record with a 4-3 run on the current road trip. Over the last two years the Padres club has depreciated from 89 wins in 2007 to 63 wins in 2008. San Diego has a solid front office, but they have yet to spend the cash for that key free agent catalyst needed in the middle of the lineup. Tonights hurler RHP Young was a major acquisition from the Texas organization. He will need to come up big against the restructuring Cole Hamels to forge a victory in the first of a three game set. San Diego is 4-0 in the last four starts with Young and 6-0 on Friday. No matter, if its Hamels or Myers, the play is San Diego.
Jim Feist
KANSAS CITY ROYALS / TEXAS RANGERS
Take: KANSAS CITY ROYALS.
Texas can be impressive when their offense is smoking the baseball, as when the Rangers went on to a 19-6 victory over the Orioles Wednesday night with 19 hits. However, this pitching staff is awful. They got with soft throwing lefty Matt Harrison here (6.35 ERA). He has allowed 9 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings. Kansas City has had an impressive start, doing it with pitching depth, ranked No. 2 in the AL in ERA. They go with their ace here in Gil Meche (3.21 ERA), who has a 12-2 strikeout to walk ratio. Pitching dominates offense in this one. Play the Royals.
Jimmy The Moose
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Over
The Oakland A's have played over the total in their last 3 games. The over is a profiatble 7-2 in the 9 games they've played so far this season. Toronto has played over the total in 6 of theor last 7 games. Prior to last night's game in which the Jays pounded out 14 more hits the team's batting average was an impressive 3.13. The A's send Outman to the mound and you can expect the Jays bats to beat him up tonight. Play the over.
Scott Spreitzer
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego is shocking everyone right now, playing strong fundamental baseball that has them tied atop the NL West and owners of the fourth best record in the entire league. The Friars own the league's seventh best ERA (3.44) including the second best bullpen. Chris Young looks to keep it going and there's no reason to think he won't. He's dominated the Phillies in three lifetime starts against them, and he's off to a great start in 2009, allowing just two earned runs and nine base runners in 13 IP, including 12 K's and just two walks. Cole Hamels, off a disastrous first outing of the season, is laying a huge price in this one. I'm not so sure he's completely ready to go. His elbow trouble doesn't look like something that's going to get better just because he had a few days of extra rest this week. I believe he's in for another tough outing on Friday night. The Pads have scored six or more runs in five of their last six outings and aren't getting the respect they deserve from the public, and subsequently, the linesmaker. I'll take advantage with a play on the Padres.
MATT FARGO
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox are not playing good baseball right now as they have lost all three series they have played. On the flip side, the Orioles have won all three series they have played including the first two against the Yankees and Rays, both being solid competition.
Boston has owned this series in the past but this is a different Orioles team and it is showing. Baltimore came into the season with some low expectations overall but high expectations from the offense and that offense is coming through. The Orioles are hitting .290 on the season which is 4th best in all of baseball and their 6.2 rpg is also tied for 4th in the Majors. Pitching is a big issue and Baltimore knew that coming in. Jeremy Guthrie however was not part of that as he is easily the most consistent pitcher on the staff. He is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his first two starts. The Orioles starting pitchers have an overall ERA of 5.66 and take away Guthrie’s numbers and that ERA balloons to 6.75. His ERA over the last three seasons that he has been in Baltimore is 3.62 and that is extremely solid. He has started seven games against the Red Sox and even though he has won only once, he has a 3.43 ERA in those games covering 44.2 innings while five of those have seen him allow two runs or fewer.
Boston is hitting just .242 on the year and only two every day players, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay are hitting over .300. The Red Sox send Brad Penny to the hill who will be making his first start at Fenway Park since coming over to Boston. He put together a quality start in his first outing against the Angels but now faces a tough offense as mentioned. He may hold his own but we have the offensive advantage overall as well as a pitching matchup that is not heavily skewed to one side yet we have a price that is extremely in our favor. The Red Sox are only 15-24 in their last 29 games against American League teams that are hitting .290 or better so they will have their work cut out once again. 3* Baltimore Orioles
Big Al Mcmordie
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Over
At 10:10pm our member selection is on the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners 'over' the total. The good news for the Tigers and their ace righthander Justin Verlander is that they needed him to do better in his second start than in his first (eight ER in less than four innings), and he did, as Verlander went five innings and only gave up one earned run while recording eight strikeouts and four walks. The bad news is that Verlander threw a lot of pitches (95) in those five innings and he will have to be more efficient than that if he is to regain the form that made him such a success in his first two full seasons in 2006 and 2007. Seattle will send its ace, "King" Felix Hernandez to the mound to face Verlander, and it would seem the jury is still out on Hernandez this season as his first start was outstanding and gave fans the hope that the Felix Hernandez of 2005 was perhaps finally back. But Hernandez suffered a setback in his second start of the season against the Oakland A's, when he lasted only five innings, while giving up five ER in the process. The Detroit offense is finally starting to wake up and put up the kind of numbers that people thought it would when Detroit acquired players like Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez. The Tigers are currently third in the league in runs scored and fourth in batting average and although their pitching is still far from ideal, their bats are finally starting to put them into a position to win games. Take the 'over'.
Carlo Campanella
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Arizona is a road Favorite as they start Haren on the mound in San Francisco in this Friday west coast match-up. San Francisco has opened the season at 0-5 against Division opponents and now must face Haren, who's allowed just 3 Earned Runs in his 13 Innings Pitched this season. Those two starts came against the Dodgers and Colorado, who have stronger line-ups than these Giants, who own a .236% Team Batting Average. HUGE Pitching MisMatch here as he squares off against the Giants Sanchez, who is 1-5 when starting against Arizona with an ERA of 8.56.
7* Play On Arizona
Scott Delaney
Today's Complimentary Selection
Your complimentary winner for Friday will be the New York Yankees, on the Run Line, as they'll exact revenge on the Indians after yesterday's shellacking at the new Yankee Stadium.
Tonight marks Joba Chamberlain’s first start against the Indians, and he rolls in with a 1.50 ERA on the young season. Chamberlain went 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA in seven starts and 23 relief appearances at the old Yankee Stadium, and now has the chance to play hero by shutting down the Tribe in the new Yankees Stadium after yesterday’s debacle.
It’s not as if the offense wasn’t there though, while the Yankees were putting up a season-low two runs; they stranded 15 runners and went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.
Maybe it was Opening Day jitters, the same blame the Mets might have used when losing their new-home opener against the Padres.
Today the loss is avenged, as the Bombers roll to an easy win.
YANKEES RUN LINE