Matt Rivers
For Friday let's back the Indians for a second straight day right here.
Joba Chamberlain certainly has the potential to be nasty but the price is once again right to take a shot on this live dog.
Cleveland is a lot better than their current record indicates and they most definitely can win this game making me believe that they just cannot be such a big dog in this spot. Sure Anthony Reyes has been underachieving and awful at times in his big league career but the former Cardinal has always had electric stuff, it was just a matter of figuring it out and putting it altogether. The first start this season was successful. Don't be fooled by the ERA of 6 as the guy went six innings and was effective. The four earned runs is not always an indication of how a guy pitches and that is the case in that start against the Blue Jays. Plus the way this season has started the Blue Jays have a better offense than the Arod-less Yankees who are just not that good at all. Mark Teixeira is borderline great but the Jeter's and Damon's of the world are somewhat living on reputation and others like Cody Ransom, Jose Molina, Brett Gardner and on and on are not your typical dangerous Yankees from the past.
When push comes to shove Reyes is certainly no Chamberlain but the Yankee righty still is not really more of a five or six inning starter and is hittable. I do think this kid has a very bright future and will be extremely solid for years to come but Cy Young he is not and to get Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez, DeRosa and the potential of this Cleveland offense plus this number is too good to pass up.
Chris Jordan
Florida at WASHINGTON +125
The Nationals broke out of their slump last night with a no-brainer victory over the Phils, as a home dog in baseball is always value the night after a rainout, and now it’s a pitching-system play on Washington. We have to list both pitchers (Nolasco and Lannan) in this one, as it’s key to our first method-play of the year with this pitching system.
Nolasco has a rather nasty 7.36 ERA and comes into this one after giving up four runs on seven hits through five frames against the Metropolitans. He’s now given up nine runs in 11 innings on the young season, and faces a lineup of bats that caught fire last night.
Lannan will be out for revenge after losing his season debut to the Fish, and given this is his home debut for 2009, I’m betting he’ll put forth his best stuff thus far in three starts.
Take the home pup in this one tonight.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego +155 at PHILADELPHIA
Got the FREE winner for you tonight coming from the National League as we go with the Padres on the road in Philadelphia.
We're not going to go against the red-hot Padres in this one as they have Chris Young (2-0, 1.38 ERA) on the hill and he has looked fantastic in his first two outings. With all this plus-money, we've got to take San Diego in this one.
Young has given up just three runs this season (two earned) and on Sunday he gave up just one unearned run on four hits in seven innings of a home win over the Giants. Last season, the big rightie went to Philly and got a 4-2 win, allowing two runs on five hits in six innings.
The Padres are 6-0 in Young's last six Friday starts and if he gets some early offense, he will look dominant against Philadelphia. San Diego's offense has been better than expected lately, scoring six runs or more in five of their last six games and they just took two of three in New York as the Mets opened their new ballpark.
Meanwhile the Phillies were losing Thursday in Washington 8-2, allowing the Nationals to get their first victory. Brett Myers (1-1, 5.54) is on the mound for Philadelphia and he's allowed four runs in each of his first two starts. The Phillies are just 7-21 when Myers pitches as a favorite and 4-9 when he pitches a series-opener.
Get the plus-money with the better pitcher and play the Padres in this one.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Undefeated's tools picks lock system now
on a 17 wins and 5 losses run. WOW !!! 😮
Today's pick = Houston Astros -140
8)
====================================
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
246 - 160 run 60 %
Thu SD Padres
====================================
Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Arizona/San Francisco under 7 1/2
====================================
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Friday, April 17, 2009
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
Sport: MLB
Time: 7:05PM CST
(962) Houston Astros -$142
(Listing Oswalt and Cueto)
The Astros are on a mini two game winning streak and Roy Oswalt owns
the Reds. Look for the Astros to run their winning streak to three games as they pick up the win against the light hitting Reds.
2009 Free Selections Record 58-47 (55.2%)
DUNKEL
Detroit at Seattle
The Tigers come in 1-6 in Justin Verlander's last 7 starts as an underdog and face a Seattle team that is 8-3 in Felix Hernandez' last 11 starts against the AL Central. The Mariners are the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has Seattle favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125).
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Walters) 15.082; Cubs (Zambrano) 16.213
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-185); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-185); N/A
Game 953-954: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.333; Washington (Lannan) 15.472
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over
Game 955-956: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 13.745; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under
Game 957-958: San Diego at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 15.123; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.243
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Under
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.278; NY Mets (Hernandez) 15.507
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-145); Over
Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.128; Houston (Oswalt) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-160); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.558; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.412
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155); Under
Game 965-966: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 12.597; San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.147
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+145); Under
Game 967-968: Cleveland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Reyes) 16.973; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.902
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+200); Under
Game 969-970: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Outman) 15.417; Toronto (Purcey) 15.153
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Under
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.626; Boston (Penny) 14.070
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over
Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Colon) 15.001; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.674
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Under
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 16.916; Texas (Harrison) 15.705
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Over
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Moseley) 14.451; Minnesota (Blackburn) 14.981
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Over
Game 979-980: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.931; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.473
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Over
NHL
Carolina at New Jersey
The Devils look to follow up their Game One win (4-1) and take advantage of a Carolina team that is 2-9 in its last 11 games following a loss by 3 or more goals. New Jersey is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-150).
Game 67-68: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.387; Pittsburgh 11.828
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Over
Game 69-70: Carolina at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.903; New Jersey 11.908
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-150); Over
Game 71-72: St. Louis at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.512; Vancouver 12.526
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-185); Under
Vegasflyer Sports
Mike Hillin
Free Play Rec 7-4 cur streak 2-0
Pirates+110 Maholm
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Pick: Philadelphia +150
The Flyers were never in game one as the Penguins dominated from start to finish, and never had to worry. The fate and resolve of the Flyers will certainly be more apparent in this one. They have lived up to those words on the season, as they have followed-up a horrible loss of three goals or more with an 18-7 mark. They have also followed-up a two goal or less offensive performance with a 19-7 mark. The Penguins have been hot at home, but the last team to take them down in this building was the Flyers, and I expect them to answer the bell for game two. The Flyers get the call here.
Red Dog Sports
Play Royals-Rangers to go ‘OVER’ 10.5 runs
All 6 of the Texas home games this season have gone Over. One game with Baltimore was a fluke as there were 6 runs scored in extra innings to help it bust the total but there have been plenty of runs in their other games. Texas starting pitcher Harrison has a 6.35 ERA for the Rangers and his ERA was 5.49 last season. Gil Meche starts for the Royals and he has good stuff but the Rangers have been hitting the ball well at home. Last year at Texas, the scores were 2-1, 11-9 and 9-5 when these two met. Play over 10.5 runs on Friday night!
John Ryan
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: San Diego Padres
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Padres as they continue their road trip against Philadelphia. Cole Hamels is just not the same starter as he was at the end of the World Championship season. Although published reports may indicate that the recent rest has cured is ailments, but unfortunately elbow issues take a long time to heal. Although it is very early in the season there is no denying that SD starter Young is pitching far better than Hamels. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-52 making 52.3 units since 2003. Play on road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. Not only is Young pitching very well he is also a perfect 6-0 (+10.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more since 1997. Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter and as I said previous Hamels is struggling. A little scouting on Hamels. He has one of the best change ups in the game today. He throws FB just 56% on the first pitch and only 63% when behind in the count. He will throw curve to LH batters as an out pitch and changes to RH batters. Problem is that hitters have been sitting on the change and the biggest problem is that his FB has topped at just 87 MPH versus 93/95 MPH late last season. Now, I would expect his FB velocity to increase in the month of May, but we are in April and until I see him throw 90 MPH he will be very hittable. The change sets up the FB and maes that FB look like 98 MPH when thrown at 90 MPH. At just 87 MPH, MLB hitters are talented enough to hit FB even if they are sitting on the change. Take San Diego.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -130
Big letdown spot for the Nats after crushing the defending World Series champs to pick up their first win of the season. Florida already owns a 3-game sweep over the Nationals this season. It faces John Lannan again tonight, whom it lit up on Opening Day in a 12-6 win. The Fish send Nolasco to the hill and he appears to be a safe bet tonight as he is 5-1 when starting against Weashington with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 0.967. Washington is just is 9-28 against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 3.7 to 6.2. Letdown city for the Nats tonight. Play Florida.
John Martin
1 Unit on L.A. Angels +105
(Listing Moseley Only)
The Twins have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and Nick Blackburn, who is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA this season, won’t be able to stop the bleeding. Minnesota is batting just .230 (47-for-204) during this stretch with 14 total runs. In his last start against the Angels, Blackburn gave up 6 runs on 10 hits in 4.3 innings. Dustin Moseley already has 2 starts under his belt, going 1-0 allowing 5 earned runs in 11.7 innings for a 3.86 ERA. The Angels are 25-13 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 17-6 against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall and 4-1 in their last 5 meeting in Minnesota. Cash in with the Angels as the underdog.
Tom Freese
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Under 7½
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has a 2.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Tigers. The Mariners are 20-9-1 UNDER the last 30 starts made by Hernandez and they are 20-8-3 when Hernandez starts Game 1 of a series. Seattle are 15-7 UNDER vs. a team that scored five or more runs in their game. Detroit starter Justin Verlander has a 2.91 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mariners. The Tigers are 7-3 UNDER the last 10 starts made by Verlander vs. AL West teams. Detroit is 5-1-1 UNDER vs. winning teams and they are 6-2-1 UNDER in Hernandez last nine Friday starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Dave Malinsky
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
PICK: Cleveland Indians
We do not have to get too complex with this one – with Alex Rodriguez sidelined and some problems with the middle relief corps once again, the Yankees have only played .500 baseball through their first 10 games. That just is not good enough to merit being anywhere near this price range, especially with the absence of Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui compounding the lineup woes.
Mariano Rivera has yet to be scored on this season, but the Yankee bullpen has an ERA of 6.52, which tells you all you need to know about how the rest of the group has performed. With Joba Chamberlain only working 69.2 innings in 12 starts LY, and not ready for more than six innings right now (only 19.2 frames in six spring training appearances, then six innings vs. Kansas City in his only work since then), it is difficult to build a bridge from him to Rivera, assuming Chamberlain has anything special to begin with – of the 18 batters that he retired vs. the Royals nine came on fly balls, and now he faces a lineup with the punch to do so much more when they make contact, especially now that Victor Martinez has regained the power that was missing LY.
Anthony Reyes has worked to a 3-1/2.45 tune since joining the Cleveland rotation, allowing only 34 hits in 40.1 innings in that span. While the tutelage of Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa has worked with so many pitchers it was simply a bad fit in St. Louis for Reyes, and his career is being turned around by having the freedom to use his natural stuff, instead of being turned more into a finesse/control type. He brings us more than enough to back in this price range, and yesterday’s late-game breakout also means that Kerry Wood got the day off, leaving him fresh to close this one out.
Larry Ness
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
I always pay attention to the lifetime records of pitchers, especially when most of those starts have come in recent years. That's the case tonight with Detroit's Justin Verlander. He's 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners and he'll try to improve to 4-1 at Safeco Field, tonight. Now here's the rub. Verlander was an "instant success story" with the Tigers, becoming the only pitcher to throw a no-hitter, start a World Series game and be Rookie of the Year (as well as an All-Star). Of even more interest to sports bettors, the Tigers were 41-21 in his regular season starts in 2006 and 2007, going plus-$1,652 vs the moneyline. Then, in 2008, Verlander went 11-17 (4.84), as the Tigers went 13-20 in his starts, losing $1,351. That ranked as the WORST moneyline mark of any starter in ALL of MLB! Verlander (0-1 with a 9.35 ERA) makes his third start of the season as the 5-4 Tigers open their nine-game road trip with a three-game series tonight, against the surprising 7-3 Mariners. The Mariners went 88-74 in 2007 (plus-$1,924) but fell to 61-101 (minus-$3,598) last season. Ichiro opened the season on the DL, missing the team's first eight games, but Seattle went 6-2 without him. Felix Hernandez (1-0, 4.15) makes his first start at Safeco Field in 2009. Hernandez is just 40-36 (3.80 ERA) in his career but most feel (me included) that he's quality pitcher, when healthy. He's facing a Detroit team which was just dreadful on the road last season vs right-handers, going 20-33 (minus-$1,935). Hernandez is 3-2 with a 2.97 ERA in his career vs Detroit but has won his last three starts against the Tigers, including a seven-inning effort last May, when he allowed only two hits in a 5-0 win. Take the Mariners.
Ben Burns
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
After struggling through a 5-game winless stretch, which saw them get outscored by a 37-11 margin, the Astros have bounced back with consecutive victories. If history is any indication (and it often is) they should have a great shot at making it three in a row. Oswalt takes the mound for Houston and he's enjoyed plenty of success against the Reds over his career. In fact, he's a remarkable 23-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 28 career games (26 starts) against them. That includes a perfect 8-0 record (2.39 ERA) in his last eight starts against them. In his last three starts against them, he allowed a combined three runs (1 in each game) through 20 combined innings. On the other hand, Cueto is 0-3 (Reds are 0-4) with a terrible 7.84 ERA (1.935 WHIP!) in four starts against the Astros. In his last start against them, he was also opposed by Oswalt. While Oswalt allowed only two hits through six innings, Cueto allowed seven hits (and five runs) in just 2 2/3 innings. Overall, the Astros are a profitable 23-7 (+17.4) the last 30 games in this series. Consider Houston.