Lenny Del Genio
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: San Diego Padres
No way we can pass on the Padres at this price, particularly with Chris Young on the hill. Young was a winner in each of his first two starts, posting a 1.38 ERA. We cashed San Diego as an underdog yesterday as our NL Game of the Week as the team continues its fast and surprising start (7-3). Phillies starter Cole Hamels comes off a disappointing 2009 debut where he was rocked for seven runs and 11 hits in less than four innings of work. Injuries during Spring Training mean Hamels may be off his game for a bit. Young?s team start record as an underdog of +150 or more is a perfect 6-0! Take San Diego.
LT Profits
Washington Nationals +115
The Florida Marlins are off to a fantastic 8-1 start while the Washington Nationals are a woeful 1-7, but the Nats may have a surprise in store for the Fish today.
Washington finally broke through the win column yesterday with an 8-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. Surprisingly, the Nationals have actually been scoring runs this far, as this marked their second straight game that they scored eight runs and fourth time in five contests that they put up at least five runs.
It is the pitching that has been disappointing, including their starter tonight, John Lannan. Lannan actually earned the Opening Day start for Washington with a very good 2008 season, but he is 0-2 so far with a lofty 10.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in nine innings. Still, both of those starts came on the road, and we look for marked improvement from him today here at home in a pitcher-friendly park.
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco is one of the few disappointments in their early season so far, as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while failing to record a Quality Start in two outings. One of those starts came vs. these Nationals, where he was roughed up for five earned runs and seven hits in six innings.
Those numbers hardly inspire confidence in a road favorite, and the fact that the Nationals are actually hitting the ball well right now makes them the choice as a home underdog.
Pick: Nationals +115
Dennis Macklin
Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Over
The Flyers are in a world of hurt after dropping Game One 4-1 and in a veritable must win situation here. Pittsburg has won six of the last eight in the series and a dominant 9-1 in the series the L10 in the igloo so Philly will be in wounded animal role here. Pitt played almost perfect Game I with Malkin and Sid getting a goal and an assist but Pens went just 1-9 on the Power Play (Flyers 1-4) meaning NO scoring in more than 17 minutes with the man advantage. Fleury and the Biron/Nittymaki combo were the weak links coming in who both happened to play well Weds. Expect to much more scoring and wide open play tonight as this one flies over the total.
King Creole
ANA (+110) vs MIN
The LA Angels have come out of the gate with a smokin HOT starting pitcher ERA of only 2.60. Now compare that to tonight's host (5.43). That's an unheard of early-season starting pitcher advantage of almost 3 FULL runs per game. With yesterday's 9-2 loss to the Hot Blue Jays, the Twins finished the 4-game series at 1-3... and are now 1-5 in their last 6 games. This also happens to be a series in which they have struggled big-time in the last 2+ seasons. Minnesota is 3-9 in the last 2 years vs the Angels... and that includes a PERFECT 0-4 when playing the role of the host.
Nick Blackburn's ERA in his first two starts of the 2009 season is already sky-high at 5.73 with an opponent team batting average of .367. Not only that, but he's allowed TWICE as many walks as strikeouts... which is usually a great indicator of 'play AGAINST' form. He's even done WORSE at home... with an ERA of 7.20 and an opponent team batting average of .458. Blackburn has faced the Angels only twice in his career (in the 2008 season)... and is a PERFECT 0-2. He's also 3-9 in his last 12 overall starts dating back to last year... 1-5 on 4 days rest... and 1-5 in his last 6 vs losing teams.
Meanwhile, Dustin Mosely comes in with a 5-1 record on 4 days rest.... and a very profitable 4-1 in his last 5 UNDERDOG roles. He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in EACH of his two 2009 starts thus far. His K/BB ratio is solid at better than a 3-1 advantage and also holds an edge in that he has NEVER faced the Twins before.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
VAN / STL Over 5
While the Canucks pledged more discipline, the Blues were buoyed by the fact the game remained close despite playing so poorly, failing to convert on a lengthy 5-on-3 midway through the first period, and being outshot 15-6 in the third. St. Louis has only dropped consecutive games twice in the last three months, and in both cases one of the losses was in overtime or a shootout. The Blues, who went into the playoffs on a 9-1-1 run, haven't lost two straight games outright since the middle of January and I expect an offensive outburst this evening. It's interesting to note that Vancouver has seen the total go over the posted number in 5 of 7 home games where the total is 5 or less and the Blues have seen it go over the number in 24 of 41 games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent! Play on the OVER!
Ron Raymond
PIT / PHI Over 5.5
The key to betting playoff hockey is to consider the ?law of average?; as coaches and players will adjust, just as the Bookmakers did for Game #2 of the Flyers vs. Pens game. The linemakers hung a 6.0 total in Game #1 and now lowered their game 2 total to 5.5. Game #1 could have gone OVER the total had the Penguins cashed in on more of their power play opportunities, but I feel you will see more of a shoot out this evening and I expect the Flyers to steal one here.
Prediction: Philadelphia 4 Pittsburgh 3
Jack Jones
New York Mets -123
I like the Mets to get the win tonight over the Milwaukee Brewers behind the strong veteran arm of Livan Hernandez. Hernandez isn't going to overpower hitters anymore, but he pitches smart and eats up a lot of innings. Livan will faces a Milwaukee offense that has quite a bit of talent, but that hasn't really taken off yet this season. So far the Brew Crew is hitting just .223 as a team and averaging 4.6 runs per game. Those numbers drop to .208 BA and 3.7 runs per game on the road, which doesn't bode well with this game at New York. Besides having the edge on the mound and in the batters box, I also love the fact that the Mets have put together an excellent bullpen for the 2009 season. This has been their biggest problem in the past and the bullpen has been very strong so far this year.
Ted Sevransky
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: San Diego Padres
Cole Hamels was the World Series MVP last October. He went 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA in the postseason, leading the Phillies to their first title in 28 years. But Hamels has a serious problem with his elbow right now. He felt tightness during spring training and his first start of the season was pushed back to give him additional rest. It didn’t matter – Hamels lacked velocity and was positively shelled at Colorado, allowing seven runs and eleven hits in just 3.2 innings of work.
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel talking about his ace: “Cole Hamels doesn’t pitch at 86 mph. He pitches 93. That’s a huge difference. That tells me that he’s not quite ready yet.” Hamels was still scheduled to make his regular start on Wednesday at Washington, but that game was rained out. Manuel: “Right at this moment, I don’t know if the extra rest is good for him or not.” And with the added distraction of the death of longtime broadcaster Harry Kalas, the Phillies are a long way from being in mid-season form right now. Manuel: “We have had a lot of distractions and a lot of things going on.”
San Diego was widely expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball coming into the season.Expectations have been dead wrong thusfar. The Padres have won six of their last seven, scoring at least six runs five times during that span. Padres starter Chris Young has been brilliant, outpitching Tim Lincecum in his last outing after outpitching Randy Wolf in his opener. Young has a 1.96 ERA in three previous starts against the Phillies. Behind him, the Padres have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball through the first two weeks of the season while the Phillies rank 19th in that same category. This price is way to high given these circumstances and matchups. 2* Take San Diego.
Stephen Nover
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
April is the toughest month for oddsmakers when it comes to baseball. This matchup is a perfect example why.
The linesmakers were way off in making Atlanta and Jair Jurrjens a road favorite. The marketplace has been busy steaming this game toward Pittsburgh.
The marketplace is on the right side. Some value has been lost by getting on the Pirates late, but baseball isn't about pointspreads. Win the game, win your bet. It's that simple.
Look for the Pirates to win this matchup behind ace Paul Maholm. The oddsmakers are still underrating Maholm, who is 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA this season after a breakout year in 2008. Maholm has a 2.77 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta in two starts.
Pittsburgh is 3-0 this season in series openers. The Pirates catch the Braves at an opportune time. The Braves have lost three in a row and are banged-up.
The left side of their infield isn't expected to play. That means no Chipper Jones (thumb) and Yunel Escobar (strained abdominal muscle).
The Braves' bullpen also has a cluster injury problem. The healthy arms haven't been effective. In short, the Braves' bullpen has been a near-disaster area.
Can Jurrjens bail out the Braves' struggling pen? Don't count on it. Yes, he's 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA. But those numbers are deceiving. Jurrjens hasn't reached the seventh inning yet.
He has given up eight walks with just three strikeouts in 11 innings. He has recorded 18 flyball out and only 12 groundball outs. It should be a red flag that he has a 29-to-3 walk/fly ball out-to-strikeout ratio.
The Pirates went 5-2 against the Braves last season. Jurrjens' ERA versus the Pirates last season was 4.35.
We're coming to this party late, but at least we're here and able to profit. This is a one-star play for me.
Black Widow
1* on Marlins/Nats Over 9
When Washington and Florida get together, usually a high-scoring game ensues. The OVER is 38-16-4 in the last 58 meetings overall and the OVER is 36-17-3 in the last 56 meetings in Washington. Over the last 3 seasons the OVER is 24-10 and the OVER is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in Washington. Ricky Nolasco and John Lannan are each off to poor starts. Nolasco has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings of his first 2 starts while Lannan has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings of his first 2 starts. These are two starters struggling to find their ways and the OVER trend in this series should continue tonight. Take the OVER 9 runs here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Braves/Pirates UNDER 8
With the way Jurrjens and Maholm have looked on the hill early on, expect a pitcher's duel to result in this one going under the number. Maholm is 14-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 5-1-1 in the Pirates last 7 home games. With Chipper Jones expected to sit this one out, the Braves lose their best bat as well. Bet the Under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Astros -144
Houston has struggled a little bit out of the gate, but I look for the Astros to get back on track against the Reds tonight. Houston is a staggering 23-7 against the Reds the last 3 seasons and Astros ace Roy Oswalt is 22-1 lifetime with an ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.092 when starting against Cincy. Plus, Reds hurler Johnny Cueto is 0-3 when starting against Houston with an ERA of 7.84 and a WHIP of 1.935. I'll back Oswalt and the Astros in this one.
Info Plays
3* on Diamondbacks/Giants UNDER 7.5
(Listing Haren and Sanchez)
Reasons why the Diamondbacks/Giants game goes UNDER the Total:
1.) Lack of run production early against lefty/right pitching. Arizona is scoring only 1.7 RPG against lefty pitching this season through 3 games. San Francisco is scoring just 3.3 RPG against righy pitching through 6 games. Both Dan Haren and Jonathan Sanchez will go deep into this one against two stagnant offenses in both dugouts.
2.) The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this NL West Rivalry. 4 of those 5 meetings saw 7 runs or less. Dan Haren has owned the Giants, going 6-4 with a 3.16 ERA in his career against San Francisco. The Giants won’t get more than 2 runs in this one and don’t expect Arizona to magically get on track against left-handed Jonathan Sanchez, either. Arizona is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in road games after 7 or more consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
3.) System Play. We’ll Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, playing on Friday. This is an 84-37 UNDER System hitting 69.4% since 1997. San Francisco has managed to score only 14 runs during their 6-game losing streak. Bet the UNDER 7.5 runs.
Dwayne Bryant
PIT (-120) vs ATL
The Atlanta Braves' offense went cold in their last series after a good start to the season. Opening a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates without two of their best hitters won't help. Yunel Escobar (.343, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and Chipper Jones (.333, 1 HR, 4 RBI) are not expected to play due to injuries.
Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens hasn't made it through the sixth inning in his first two starts, but he's still 2-0. His 3/8 K/BB ratio is bound to catch up with him and shows he can be scored on right now. The right-hander was 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two starts against the Pirates last season.
Pittsburgh's offense has been very inconsistent. In four wins, the team is batting .353 and averaging 7.5 runs while in the five losses, it's batting .178 and averaging 1.6 runs. I think they can get to Jurrjens tonight.
Pittsburgh has opened all three series it's played with a win. The Pirates look to continue that trend behind Paul Maholm (1-0, 1.32), who is looking to build off two effective starts. He pitched seven innings against Cincinnati on Saturday, allowing one run and three hits in a 10-2 victory. The left-hander is 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts against the Braves. This is his first time facing them since 2007. The Pirates won five of the seven meetings between the teams last season.
The Pirates are batting .320 at home, while Atlanta is hitting just .259 on the road. The Pirates bullpen has also been solid with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home. Atlanta's bullpen (6.60 ERA, 1.97 WHIP) is a mess.
I'll take Pittsburgh with Maholm over Atlanta and Jurrjens.