SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (21-14) at St. Louis (21-14)
The surging Brewers gun for their fourth consecutive victory when they send ace Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) to the mound as the top two teams in the N.L. Central begin a three-game weekend series at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee ended a six-game homestand with Thursday’s 5-3 victory over the Marlins to complete a three-game series sweep. The Brewers are on runs of 17-5 overall (9-2 last 11), 7-2 on the road, 8-2 against N.L. Central foes, 7-0 in series openers, 10-2 versus teams with a winning record and 7-1 against right-handed starters.
Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) takes the ball for the Cardinals, who capped a six-game road trip Thursday with a 5-1 win at Pittsburgh. St. Louis has still dropped four of its last six overall – all divisional contests – and it is 3-6 in its last nine against right-handed starters. On the positive side, Tony LaRussa is on runs of 21-8 at home and 5-2 on Friday.
The Brewers won seven of the last eight meetings with the Cardinals last season, including six of the last seven at Busch Stadium.
Milwaukee is 4-0 in Gallardo’s last four trips to the mound – all against N.L. East foes – with the right-hander going 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA, including Saturday’s 12-6 home victory over the Cubs when he gave up two runs in five innings. Gallardo is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four road starts this season.
Lohse got torched in his last two trips to the mound, allowing a combined 13 runs (all earned) on 16 hits in 10 1/3 innings (10.97 ERA), losing 6-1 at home to the Phillies and 8-3 at Cincinnati. The Cardinals have lost three straight games and four of five with Lohse on the hill. However, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts at home and the Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six at Busch Stadium.
In two career starts against St. Louis – both in 2007 – Gallardo gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings (9.28 ERA), and Milwaukee lost both games (one at home, one on the road). Meanwhile, Lohse faced the Brewers three times last year and gave up nine runs in 19 innings (4.26 ERA), but St. Louis lost all three games by a total of four runs.
The under is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these division rivals and 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in St. Louis. Also, the Cardinals stayed under the total in all three games at Pittsburgh, and the under is 12-4 in Gallardo’s last 16 starts overall, 10-1 in his last 11 starts on the road and 6-0 in Milwaukee’s last six Friday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (18-15) at Texas (20-14)
The first-place Rangers welcome the Angels to Rangers Ballpark for a weekend series, with Kevin Millwood (3-3, 2.92) slated to toe the slab in the opener. Texas is coming off consecutive walk-off home wins over the Mariners, including Thursday’s 3-2 victory, a game in which the Rangers trailed 2-0 going into the bottom of the ninth. Texas has surged to the top of the A.L. West standings by winning four in a row and 10 of 12, going 5-0 at home during this stretch. It is also on runs of 6-1 against A.L. West rivals, 4-1 versus lefty starters and 4-0 in series openers.
The Angels hit the road after ending an eight-game homestand with Thursday’s 5-4, 12-inning victory over Boston, and they’ll turn to southpaw Joe Saunders (5-1, 2.66) in this contest. Like Texas, Los Angeles is also playing solid ball, going 9-2 in its last 11 games, including three straight road wins, and it is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handed starters.
Los Angeles cruised to the A.L. West title last year thanks in part to dominating Texas, winning 12 of 19 meetings, including eight of the final 11. Also, the visitor went 12-7 in this rivalry in 2008, including 6-1 in the last seven.
Saunders is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts, allowing a total of six runs (four earned) in 21 2/3 innings. That includes Saturday’s 1-0, complete-game home victory over Zack Greinke and the Royals. With Saunders pitching, the Halos are on a slew of impressive streaks, including 43-17 overall, 22-7 on the road, 10-3 on Friday, 6-0 against A.L. West foes, 20-4 in series openers and 21-7 versus teams with a winning record.
This season, Saunders is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in three road starts. He’s also 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA in seven career starts against Texas, but 0-3 with a 9.77 ERA in three outings at Rangers Ballpark.
Millwood gave up three runs over seven innings in Saturday’s start at the White Sox, losing 3-2. The veteran right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season, and he’s surrendered a total of five earned runs in 24 innings in three home starts, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA. Texas is 19-8 in Millwood’s last 27 starts at Rangers Ballpark, but it is 2-8 in his last 10 outings against winning teams and 0-4 in his last four Friday efforts.
Millwood is 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, including 1-2 with a 4.21 ERA in four outings last season. Texas has dropped six of his last eight starts against L.A.
The under is 5-2-1 in Saunders’ last eight road starts, 4-0 in his last four against the A.L. West and 5-2-1 in his last eight on Friday, but the Angels have topped the total in five of his last seven starts versus Texas. Meanwhile, with Millwood pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 13-3-2 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 5-0 on Friday and 4-1 when he faces the Angels.
The under is 6-1 in L.A.’s last seven overall (all against right-handed starters), while Texas sports “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 6-2 at home and 6-1 in series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Chicago White Sox at Toronto
The White Sox look to build on their 4-1 record in John Danks' last 5 starts as a road underdog. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115).
Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 16.024; Cubs (Wells) 14.984
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+160); N/A
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.497; Washington (Lannan) 14.314
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Over
Game 955-956: Colorado at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 12.876; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Stults) 14.811; Florida (Volstad) 15.147
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under
Game 959-960: Arizona at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.955; Atlanta (Vazquez) 16.142
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.159; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.401
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.388; San Diego (Correia) 14.771
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 14.714; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.824
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Under
Game 967-968: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.734; NY Yankees (Hughes) 17.117
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Under
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.852; Toronto (Cecil) 14.636
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Over
Game 971-972: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.425; Detroit (Jackson) 15.851
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Reyes) 14.605; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 15.795
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 17.738; Texas (Millwood) 16.323
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Under
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Eaton) 14.505; Kansas City (Greinke) 15.431
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-205); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-205); Under
Game 979-980: Boston at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.692; Seattle (Jakubauskus) 15.660
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under
Vernon Croy
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Rays have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight although Kazmir has struggled early this season. The Rays are 15-1 in their last 16 games when Kazmir has started as a favorite of -151 to -200 and the Rays are 36-5 in their last 41 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games after a loss and they are hitting .309 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.4 rpg. I look for the Rays to give Kazmir plenty of run support tonight against Reyes who has an ERA of 10.38 over his last 7 games while allowing 22 hits over just 13 innings. The Indians are just 1-11 in their last 12 games in game 2 of a series and they are also just 3-14 in their last 17 games wining their previous game. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Friday night since this play is just over my personal -150 limit to make it a premium play.
John Ryan
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Oakland Athletics
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Oakland as they face Detroit slated to start at 7:05 EST. Oakland is 175-129 (+48.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. Detroit is 48-69 (-31.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 since 1997. Oakland is 24-42 (-17.8 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons. Leyland is 21-7 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. Oakland starter Anderson may 0-3, but he far better than that record would indicate. As is the case with 90% of pitchers he truly needs to work ahead in the count. Batters hit just 226 after an 0-1 count, 067 after an 0-2 count. Batters hit 326 after a 1-0 count. Another key advantage that he has it that Detroit has never faced him live. It is one thing to review scouting reports and watch video, but it is a completely different thing to actually face that pitcher. Take Oakland.
Cajun Sports
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park will be the site of tonight’s National League battle between the host Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have found the going tough on the highway this season posting a record of 6-10 W/L for -2.4 units. If the Rockies are under the lights they are 6-12 W/L for -7.0 units. Colorado’s ability to score runs drops off when they are away from Coors averaging only 4.0 runs per game with a batting average of only .236 on the season. The Rockies will hang their hopes on Jorge De La Rosa who is 0-3 W/L on the year including 0-1 W/L in three road appearances. Pittsburgh was getting solid pitching performances during the month of April but the month of May has been a much different story. They will send left-hander Paul Maholm to the bump with his 3-1 W/L record which includes a 2-0 W/L record at home with an ERA of 2.66. He is coming off one of his worst outings of the season and we look for him to rebound against this Rockies team. Pittsburgh is 16-6 W/L in Maholms last 22 home starts and 10-1 W/L his last 11 as a home favorite. Colorado is 18-40 W/L their last 58 road games versus teams with a winning home record and 20-45 W/L when installed as a road underdog. The Rockies are 1-5 W/L in De La Rosa’s last 6 starts, 0-5 W/L when he is an underdog and 0-4 W/L when he is a road underdog. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Pirates win by 2.0 runs in tonight’s game and the Math Model also favors Pittsburgh with them capturing the home win by 1.5 runs. Lay the chalk with the host as the Pirates and Maholm get the job done on Friday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Pittsburgh Pirates 5 Colorado Rockies 3
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Rough free play loss yesterday ending our three game win streak. Today we go back to what got us the hot streak, MLB!! All trends and capping point to a very easy winner tonight. Lets get back on track!
Records
Cincinnati Reds 20-14, 13-5 away (Harang 3-3, 2.93 ERA)
San Diego Padres 13-22, 8-6 home (Correia 0-2, 5.34 ERA)
Betting Trends
SD are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.
Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
Two teams headed in opposite directions: Reds 3 wins in a row, Padres lost 6 in a row!! Also Harang has been unbelievable this year for the Reds only giving up more than 2 runs twice out of seven starts. Early in the season the Reds were winning with dominating pitching but the last 6 games has seen the bats heat up averaging over 7 runs per game against several good pitchers in that string. Even better for Harang is that the Padres have been in a slump over the last month where they have only 4 wins out of 23 games and averaging less than three runs. Padres had to travel home late last night whereas the Reds were waiting for them in San Diego on an off day yesterday. A hot rested team verse a cold tired team, pretty easy capping. SCORE: REDS 6 - SD 1
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Detroit w/Jackson vs Anderson
The Tigers open a three game set with the A's in the Motor City tonight when Edwin Jackson takes on Brett Anderson. Detroit's Jackson has rounded into nice current form with 7 walks and 31 strikeouts in his last four starts while Oakland's Anderson is winless in his five MLB career team starts with a 5.29 ERA thus far. Stay at home with the better arm here tonight.
DAVE COKIN
LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS TEXAS RANGERS
Take: TEXAS RANGERS
Joe Saunders has been money in the bank on the road for the Angels. He's now an amazing 20-6 for his career away from home. Yet he's 0-3 at tonight's site as the Rangers have crushed him here. Texas is on a major roll right now and Kevin Millwood is pitching steady ball. Millwood is pitching more to contact than he has in the past and it's paying off. In fact, the entire Texas staff is vastly improved thanks to the arrival of guru Mike Maddux. This is a very big series for the Rangers and I think they're worth backing in the opener tonight.
JIM FEIST
COLORADO ROCKIES / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take: PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Colorado struggled away from home (6-10) and their pitching has been the big culprit. Starter Jorge De La Rosa has a good ERA at present, but he's walking too many batters (16 in 35 innings). Pittsburgh has a winning record at home and they showed it again this week, returning from a miserable road trip to smack the Cardinals around. Lefty starter Paul Maholm has been very reliable and is 3-1 on the year. A good spot for the home team. Play the Pirates.
Jimmy The Moose
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have struggled of late but tonight they start a series vs. a Washington team they play well against. Philadelphia is on the road where they have played very well this season. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 11 road games. Philadelphia also has won 10 of Blanton's last 13 starts. The Nationals are 11-21 on the year. Washington sends Lannan to the mound and the Nationals have lost his last 4 starts vs. Philadelphia. The Nationals are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings. Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last 10 trips to Washington. Play on the Philadelphia Phillies -.
Masterbets
Bet on the RED SOX to win straight up
Lester returns to Washington, his home state, to pitch against the sliding Mariners. Seattle played above their ability in April but are in the process of coming back to earth. They're at home here but it won't make a difference as there is a gulf in quality between the two starting pitchers. Jakubaus got lit up at the Twins last time and will be out of his depth with these Boston match ups. Look for Lester to set up a RED SOX victory here tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
Play Under 9
On Friday night the free play is on the UNDER in the Atlanta-Arizona game.Rotation numbers 959/60 at 7:35 eastern.Arizona has been an under machine this year,as they are a poor offensive team.They are 1-9 to the under this year on the road and have gone under in 40 of 55 games the last 3 years on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.After a game this year where they allowed 10 or more runs they have slid under 3 of 4 times.Tonight they send veteran Lefty D.Davis to the hill in Atlanta.In his only start there the last 3 years he is 1-0 with a 1.29 era allowing just 1 earned run in 7+ innings work.For the Braves its righy J.Vazquez.Tonight he will get back on track vs a weak Diamondback team.Look for this game to go under the total tonight.
Red Dog Sports
Oakland at Detroit 7pm
Play Detroit
Edwin Jackson of Detroit has an ERA of 2.37 in his last 3 while Anderson has an ERA of 7.20 in his last 3 and the Angels are 0-3 in those starts. Oakland is 17-38 in their last 55 on the road and the Tigers are 8-5 at home this year.
Jeff Benton
Tough free-play loss with the Tigers against Minnesota on Thursday, as Detroit blew a 5-0, seventh-inning lead. For Friday’s freebie, we’ll actually back the Twins as they send Francisco Liriano to the mound as an underdog at new Yankee Stadium.
Minnesota swept the three-game series from the Tigers and finished off a six-game homestand with a 5-1 record. Tonight, the Twins turn to Liriano, who is coming off a rough outing against Seattle, but before that, the southpaw was rock-solid against the Rays and Tigers, allowing a combined four runs in 14 innings. The Twins are 3-0 in Liriano’s last three trips to the mound after losing his first four starts this season.
As much as I like Liriano’s chances to neutralize New York’s bats tonight – this is the first time he’s faced the Yanks – I’m more excited about the Twins’ red-hot offense getting its licks in against Phil Hughes, the young right-hander for whom the Yankees are still waiting to fulfill his promise.
Hughes is 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA in his first three starts, including a horrific outing at Baltimore on Saturday when he lasted just 1 2/3 innings, giving up eight runs in a 12-5 loss. He’s also never been comfortable pitching in the Bronx, going 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA in 11 career home starts. Tonight, Hughes faces a Twins lineup that’s pounded out 49 runs in its last six games. Throw in the fact that the Yanks have dropped five straight at home and are 4-7 in their last 11, and I’ll ride Liriano and the visitors at a nice plus price.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Scott Delaney
Yovani Gallardo is our pitcher of choice tonight in this pick’em game, as the battle of beer-towns goes to Milwaukee in this series-opener. Makes no sense to back Kyle Lohse, as the Redbirds are 3-9 in the last dozen he’s been installed as the chalk, and since Milwaukee has won seven of the last eight meetings overall.
Also, the Brewers are on a solid 16-5 run overall, and that makes things much easier on Gallardo, who is 2-0 on the highway with a 2.20 ERA. As for Lohse, he’s 0-2 in his last two starts – one at home and one on the road – and has given up a total of 13 earned runs in 10 innings in those outings.
The Cardinals may have snapped a two-game skid last night with a 5-1 win at Pittsburgh, but they’ve still lost seven of their last 11. I’ll play Gallardo and the Brewers in this one.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS