Matt Rivers
For Friday lay a little bit on the road with Aaron Harang and the Reds.
I certainly am not a huge fan of backing the road chalk and also do not at all fully believe in the fairly light hitting Cincinnati Reds but let's face it the Padres are a total joke, save Adrian Hernandez, and just should not prevail today.
Aaron Harang has been pitching very well this season and is much better than Kevin Correia. Meanwhile Correia's offense is as atrocious as ever as these Friars have been pathetic after the shocking and quality first few weeks to the season. But we see now how that solid early play was more of a mirage than reality and now San Diego has regressed to the point where they were pretty much all of last season, atrocious.
I do not think the Reds are going very far themselves but Dusty Baker does have his team playing very well right now and with some power in Jay Bruce, Brandon Philips and possibly the injured Joey Votto I just don't see the visitors not walking off the field as the victor today.
In PETCO you have to expect a guy like Harang to give you at least seven quality innings and in the end this thing has 5-2 Reds written all over it!
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee at ST. LOUIS
Big weekend showdown series in St. Louis, and we are on the surging Brewers to open this series with the win.
Milwaukee comes to town having won 3 in a row, and 9 of their last 11, while St. Louis comes back home having just avoided a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates.
The Redbirds are just 2-4 their last 6 games, and they did not fare so well against their division rival last season, dropping 10 of the 15 meetings, including 6 of the 9 played at Busch.
Yovani Gallardo is off to a 4-1 start, and is a perfect 2-0 on the road this season with a 2.20 ERA. His counterpart Kyle Lohse has now lost his last pair of starts, allowing an alarming 13 runs in just 10 innings of work.
Gallardo did not make a start against St. Louis last season, while Lohse started 3 times against the Brewers allowing 9 runs in 19 innings of work for 3 no-decisions.
We say stick with Milwaukee to continue their hot May run.
Play on the Brew-Crew.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at NY YANKEES -115
For Friday night on the diamond, I like the Yankees to continue their winning ways back home in the Bronx.
New York just recorded series wins at Baltimore, and at Toronto, winning a tight 3-2 game last night over the AL East front-runners.
Minnesota comes to the Big Apple off a 3-game sweep over Detroit, but they have had their struggles in the Bronx in the past, losing 6 of the last 7 meetings at the old Yankee Stadium.
I doubt the change of venue will improve their lot, as Minny is just 4-8 on the road this year, and starter Francisco Liriano is just 1-2 away from the Dome, with an ERA of 7.88.
New York starter Phil Hughes hasn't been much better, but with his team starting to show signs of life, and Minnesota struggling so mightily in the Bronx in the past, the G-Man will take a shot with the Yankees minus the cheap chalk.
1♦ NY YANKEES
Bobby Maxwell
Boston at SEATTLE +145
We're in the Pacific Northwest for a FREE play winner on the Mariners tonight as they host the Red Sox.
Sure, the Mariners have been struggling mightily lately, but a packed house to see the Red Sox might just be what gets them out of their funk. Look for them to bring their best tonight as the popular BoSox pack Safeco Field.
Seattle lost a tough one on Thursday, falling 3-2 in Texas after ace Felix Hernandez threw seven shutout innings. Today, the Mariners have Chris Jakubauskas (1-4, 7.67 ERA) on the mound, coming off a lousy outing a week ago, giving up nine runs in 4 1/3 innings of an 11-0 loss tot he Twins.
Good news for Seattle is it faces a starter in Boston's Jon Lester (2-3, 6.31 ERA) that has struggled lately. He gave up a career-high eight runs in 4 1/3 innings on Saturday against the Rays as Boston got slammed 14-5. The opposition is hitting .310 against Lester and the Mariners need some of that because they have scored two or less runs in six of their last nine outings.
Boston lost in extra innings in Anaheim on Thursday and the Red Sox offense has struggled since team leader Kevin Youkilis went to the DL with an oblique strain.
Look for the Mariners to have a big game in front of the big crowd. Play Seattle.
2♦ SEATTLE
LT Profits
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
John Danks has pitched very well on the road ever since coming to the White Sox and Brett Cecil has had an impressive start to his Major League career, so look for both offenses to struggle this evening.
Danks has good overall numbers this season, and he has continued his uncanny knack of pitching well on the road, going 2-1 with a nice 3.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP away from Chicago. He has also allowed one run or less in four of his six starts, including his last outing vs. the Texas Rangers when he allowed one run and just four hits with 10 strikeouts in six innings. Danks has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his two career starts vs. Toronto.
Cecil was a first-round draft pick just two years ago, but the young southpaw is making a strong case to stay with the big club even after Jesse Litsch comes off the Disabled List. Cecil has made two starts since being recalled, and after allowing one earned run in six innings in his Major League debut, he then hurled eight shutout innings while allowing only five hits vs. the Oakland Athletics last Friday.
Cecil should continue to be tough on teams that have never faced him before like the White Sox, so look for a safe Under tonight, given the success Danks has had both on the road and vs. the Blue Jays.
Pick: White Sox/Blue Jays Under 8.5
Nick Parsons
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5
On Saturday, Greinke (6-1, 0.51 ERA) had his nine-game winning streak snapped as he lost for the first time since Sept. 7. The majors' ERA leader gave up one run and four hits over eight innings of 1-0 loss against the Los Angeles Angels and it's that will compound this evening as I expect this total go over the posted number. Adam Eaton (2-3, 7.18) will get the call for Baltimore, and he'll be trying to win consecutive starts for the first time since May 28-June 3 with Philadelphia. The right-hander gave up four runs and four hits - including two home runs - over five innings of a 12-5 win over the New York Yankees on Saturday; play on the OVER!
Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Baltimore/Kansas City under 8 1/2
===============================================
Free Selection from Razor Sharp
FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: Take MILWAUKEE (Gallardo)
Pick'em over St Louis
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(972) Detroit Tigers -$140
(Listing Jackson and Anderson)
Oakland's starting pitcher Brett Anderson is yet to earn a Major
League win and has given up five runs in three of his five starts
this year. The Tigers should be able to put some runs on the
board against him and Oakland will have a hard time winning
a slugfest as their offense is one of the worst in the Majors.
Lay the juice with the Tigers.
2009 Free Selections Record 70-61 (53.4%)
JIMMY BOYD
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates -118
Pittsburgh ended a long losing streak with a nice series win over the Cards. Now it takes some momentum into this series with lowly Colorado. I expect a win out of the Bucs in Game 1 behind Maholm, who is 2-0 at home with an ERA of 2.66 this season. You also like the fact that Maholm is 9-1 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 13-2 against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. Colorado has struggled on the road (6-10), against southpaw starters (4-7), and in night games (6-12). Also, it is just 6-22 against the money line in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 10-1 in Maholm's last 11 starts as a home favorite while the Rockies are 0-5 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet the Bucs.
Alatex
Los Angeles at Florida Under 9
Florida starter Chris Volstad has failed to allow more than three earned runs in a start and officially, has posted five quality starts in seven tries. His 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 32 hits in 42.1 innings suggest the future is extremely bright for the big righty. He’ll face a Dodgers lineup that thus far has shown some dramatic home/road splits with .253 BA and .725 OPS numbers on the road and .315 BA/.869 OPS at home. Overall, the Dodgers are averaging exactly two runs less per contest on the highway. LA’s Eric Stults is a guy we are going to keep a close eye on. With 32.2 innings pitched this season, he is six away from matching his MLB season-high. Up until this point, the lefty has been very effective, changing speeds and keeping batters off-balance. As mentioned, we are leery of his long term shelf life being a guy that tends to pitch to contact, but in this spot, against a Florida team that shows well below average numbers against lefties (.230 BA/.288 OBP/.680 OPS) we feel his success should continue. The loss of Manny Ramirez is not something we are going to overreact to, but he is still one less powerful stick Volstad must face. Let’s play this one under the total.
Jrtips
BOSTON vs. SEATTLE
The left-hander Lester will start for the Boston Red Sox and try to break out of his funk as opponents are hitting .310 against him. Lester (2-3, 6.31 ERA) allowed a career-high eight runs in a season-low 4 1/3 innings of the 14-5 loss. Lester is 1-0 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts against the Mariners and Boston (21-14) needs a good start from Lester to give their bullpen a rest after Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon all pitched at least an inning in their 5-4, 12-inning loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday. The Red Sox's starters are last in the AL with a 5.90 ERA. The Mariners (16-19) have scored two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games, including a 3-2 loss to Texas on Thursday and the Mariners finished their road trip at 1-7 after dropping the final two games being outscored 64-28 in their last 10 games. Boston's reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia had four hits in his return from a groin injury and Julio Lugo had five hits while slugger David Ortiz went 0 for 7 and stranded 12 runners as his average fell to .208. Boston's offense has slowed, scoring four runs in four straight games but should break out today facing struggling rookie right-hander Chris Jakubauskas (1-4, 7.67) who gave up nine runs and three homers in 4 1/3 innings of Seattle's 11-0 loss at Minnesota last Friday. Boston won its last five games against the Mariners last year, including a three-game sweep in Seattle.
TAKE BOSTON-151
Big Al McMordie
LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: LAA Angels
At 8:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. Rangers righthanded pitcher Kevin Millwood has an amazing ERA of only 2.92, but his record is only 3-3 which means that the 13-year veteran is probably not getting much run support. In fact, in Millwood's three losses, Texas has only scored a total of four runs and one of those games was a 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Royals at home in Arlington. Angels lefthander Joe Saunders is in All-Star form right now, having won his last three starts and pitching a complete game shutout in his last outing on May 9 against the Royals. That game was significant as Saunders finally broke the scoreless pitching streak of KC's Zack Greinke. The really good news for the Angels is that despite the loss of outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, out since early May with a pectoral muscle injury, Los Angeles has won nine of their last 11 games heading into tonight. Even without Guerrero, this is a pretty potent offense, and the pitching performances of guys like Matt Palmer and Shane Loux have served them well while they're waiting for the return of Ervin Santana, John Lackey, and Kelvim Escobar. No matter who returns to the rotation for this team, Saunders isn't going anywhere and this talented southpaw should be a fixture on this starting staff for some time to come. Take the Angels.
Tom Freese
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Boston is 50-24 their lat 74 games vs. losing teams and they are 37-1 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Red Sox are 10-3 on Friday and they are 28-10 with Jon Lester on the mound vs. losing teams. Seattle is 1-9 their last 10 games overall and they are 0-6 their last 6 games as underdogs. The Mariners are 1-7 off a loss and they are 0-5 their last 5 meetings with the Red Sox. PLAY ON BOSTON w/Lester
Dwayne Bryant
MIL (-108) vs STL
Milwaukee (21-14) has won nine of its last 11, compiling a .283 batting average with 18 home runs and outscoring opponents 75-45. The Brewers have also won seven of nine on the road. Milwaukee went 10-5 against St. Louis last season, winning six of nine at Busch Stadium.
Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) has won three consecutive decisions while posting a 1.80 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 35 innings over five starts as Milwaukee has gone 4-1.
Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) is 0-2 with an 11.32 ERA and has served up three homers in his last two games. That came after going 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA and one homer allowed in five April starts. Lohse is 3-3 with a 5.22 ERA in 11 games - 10 starts - against the Brewers. He had no record and a 4.26 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee last year, all St. Louis losses.
The Brewers are playing much better baseball right now and Gallardo is in much better current form than Lohse. The Cardinals are also missing two key components in their lineup -- Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel.
I'll take Milwaukee and Gallardo over St. Louis and Lohse for a half-unit.
Frank Sawyer
Pitching Surprise Play
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan. The Phillies enter this series 16-16 overall after dropping a disappointing 5-3 ten inning affair with the Dodgers Thursday night. They meet a Nationals club that is 11-21 on the season. The Phillies will send out the right-handed veteran, Joe Blanton, to the mound. Blanton has posted some ugly numbers so far this season. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.60. Blanton had two outings in April where he could not get out of the 5th inning while allowing seven and six earned runs respectively. However, a look beyond these frontline numbers into some deeper sabermetric statistics suggests that Blanton should be achieving better results. A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where the balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is .290. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to have this number lower. Blanton currently has a BABIP of .343 this season which is high and "unlucky." What this tells us is that Blanton has been unfortunate in that many of the balls he has allowed in play are not being hit towards Philly fielders. He should not to expect that trend to continue since that is a bit a function of luck regarding where the defense happens to be positioned -- which, of course, will then decrease the number of hits he allows as well as then the number of runs he allows. Additionally, the Phillies lead the majors with just eight errors on the season. As time goes by, Blanton will benefit from these balls being hit towards the capable Philly fielders that back him up. Blanton's last two outings suggest he his already turning around his early season difficulties. On May 4th, he pitched six innings and allowed just one run on just four hits in a win at St. Louis. Then on May 9th, while giving up six runs in eight innings against the Braves, two of those runs came on an 8th inning homer he allowed. We are encouraged by the fact that he had five strikeouts with just one walk in that game. Furthermore, he averaged just 13.8 pitches per inning in that outing which suggests that, for much of the game, he was dominant. He compiled 110 pitches which were the most he has accumulated in one game all season -- which explains why stayed in the game through the eighth inning. Blanton is a solid strikeout pitcher. He averages 7.2 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.8:1 Strikeout pitchers with good control are the ones most likely to pitch themselves out of slumps. Not only can strikeout pitchers get themselves out of jams with their "stuff," but the credible threat of striking out a hitter compels batters to swing earlier in the count. When combined with a low-walk rate, strikeout pitchers gain control of the "chess match" between hitters and pitchers. This is a recipe for long term success. The veteran Blanton certainly has the repertoire to pitch well. In the second half of last season (when he was traded to the Phillies), Blanton was 4-0 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a very nice low opponent's batting average of just .251. He struck out 52 batters in 76 1/3 innings during that stretch. Blanton has also pitched much better away from Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park this season. On the road in two '09 starts, Blanton has a 1-1 record with a 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .250 in twelve innings. Given these peripheral numbers, we expect a strong performance "surprise" out of the Phillies' starter tonight.
The Nationals send out their ace, John Lannan, with his 2-3 record along with a 3.89 ERA. Lannan does have a high opponent's batting average of .282 along with a worrisome WHIP of 1.50 this season. Lannan is not a strikeout pitcher as he averages just 4.53 Ks per nine innings. Additionally, his K-to-Walk ration is 1.3:1 which is not very impressive since for every four strikeouts, Lannan averages three walks. In 2008, Lannan was 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA overall -- but his numbers at home were noticeably worse as he was just 4-9 with a 4.89 ERA. And, Lannan struggled against the Phillies last year as he was 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of a whopping .323 in 16 2/3 innings. Both of these offenses are good; the Nationals average 5.15 runs per game while the Phillies score 5.52 runs per game -- ranking 9th and 5th in the majors respectively. However, the Phillies averaged 4.94 runs per game last season to just the 3.98 average of the Nationals. Over the long run, the Philly crew of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino should out-hit Ryan Zimmerman and Co. this season. If this game goes to the bullpens, the Phillies should have the advantage as the Nationals have an extremely shaky bullpen; collectively, their pen has an ERA of 6.31 with a WHIP of 1.75 and over the last 22 1/2 innings their bullpen ERA jumps to 8.06.
Overall, Philadelphia is an excellent position to win the opening game of this series. Washington is just 16-37 over their last 53 games. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last eight meetings with the Nationals and 7-3 in their last ten games in Washington. Philly is 8-3 in their last eleven games on the road. And, the Phillies are 10-3 in their last thirteen games in games where Blanton starts. Furthermore, Washington is 10-45 versus the money line (-30.8 units) after four or more games on the road over the last two seasons. Finally, there is a strong 85% system against the money line (33-6 since 1997, +25.2 units) that looks to play on National League road favorites of at least -110 if they are sending a starting pitcher who has a WHIP between 1.55-1.65 while sporting a lineup that averages at least 3.5 extra-base hits a game. The defending National League Champions should knock around the Nationals' Lannan while their starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, should be primed to "surprise" with an excellent pitching performance. MLB Hollywood Insider Starting Pitcher Surprise on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan.
Wunderdog
Houston at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs -150
The Chicago Cubs are beginning to get it going. Last season, they were the only National League team to win over 50 games at home, and they did it by a lot at 55. This season, they are 11-6 at home, and now 7-1 in their last eight outings at Wrigley. They have plated 49 runs in the eight games, or just over eight runs per game. Houston is a weak hitting team that found some success in the thin air and poor pitching in Colorado and in San Diego, who has dropped 19 of 23. They are a poor 5-16 as a +100 to +150 favorite, showing that they have trouble in these situations. The Cubs have been absolute murderers on teams with a losing record as they are now an awe inspiring 41-12 in their last 53 against them. That converts to 77.4% winners, enough for me to back Chicago in this one.