SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (32-20) at L.A. Dodgers (37-19)
The World Series champion Phillies go for their seventh straight victory when they trot out veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.75 ERA), who opposes fellow lefty Eric Milton (2-0, 3.14) as this four-game series continues at Dodger Stadium.
Behind a dominating complete-game effort from Cole Hamels, Philadelphia took Thursday’s series opener 4-0 for its sixth consecutive victory overall (fourth straight on the road). The Phillies lead the major leagues with a 20-6 road record, and they’re are on additional upswings of 56-26 overall, 37-15 on the highway, 17-6 against the N.L. West, 37-16 versus winning teams and 40-19 against left-handers.
The Dodgers are just 3-4 in their last seven games and have been held to two runs or fewer in six of their last eight contests. Despite the recent slump, Los Angeles is still on upticks of 35-17 overall, 40-15 at Dodger Stadium, 21-9 versus southpaw starters, 18-6 against lefties at home, 4-1 against the N.L. East and 8-4 versus winning teams. Also, the Dodgers’ 20-7 home record is the best in the majors, as is their 37-19 overall mark.
These teams have split their four meetings this season, three of which came in Philly, and the Phillies are 10-3 in the last 13 head-to-head battles (playoffs included). However, Philadelphia is still just 3-6 in its last nine games in Hollywood.
Moyer snapped a four-game losing streak and finally picked up his 250th career victory on Sunday against Washington, scattering a run on three hits with no walks and four strikeouts over six innings en route to the 4-2 home triumph. Moyer has a 4.00 ERA over his past three starts after posting a hefty 13.87 ERA in his previous three outings, including a 9-2 home loss to the Dodgers.
Moyer is 2-2 with a 6.64 ERA in four road starts this season. Also, including last month’s 9-2 loss to the Dodgers and a 7-2 setback in Los Angeles in last year’s NLCS, the 46-year-old lefty has faced the Dodgers three times since being traded to Philadelphia in 2007, giving up 23 runs (all earned) in 11 innings (18.82 ERA).
Milton, who hadn’t picked up a victory in the big leagues since May 2007, has earned consecutive wins in his last two outings, beating the Rockies 7-1 and the Cubs 8-2, both on the road. He gave up a combined three runs in 10 1/3 innings in those two contests, walking one and striking out seven.
Tonight marks Milton’s first appearance of the season at Dodger Stadium, but in two previous career starts there, he’s 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA. The former Phillie is 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA in four career starts against his ex-mates.
Philadelphia has won five straight Friday contests behind Moyer, but they’re 4-9 in his last 13 starts against the N.L. West.
Furthermore, the under for Philly is on streaks of 10-2-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road and 6-0 against left-handers, but the over is 10-5-2 in the Phillies’ last 17 against the N.L. West, 8-2-1 in their last 11 on Friday and 4-1 in Moyer’s last five road outings. For the Dodgers, the “under” is on runs of 6-2 overall and 5-1-1 on Friday. Finally, even though last night’s game stayed well under the total, the over is still 10-3-2 in the last 15 series meetings in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (31-21) at Boston (31-22)
The Red Sox return to Fenway Park after a three-city, 10-game road trip, and they’ll turn to Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) in this series opener against the first-place Rangers and Kevin Millwood (4-4, 3.23).
Boston opened its road swing by losing four of the first six games against the Twins and Blue Jays, but rebounded to win the next four in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Tigers that concluded with Thursday’s 6-3 victory. In addition to their current four-game win streak, the Red Sox are on runs of 81-35 at home, 27-11 when playing on grass, 23-9 in series openers, 52-22 versus right-handed starters and 17-6 against teams with a winning record.
Texas heads north after blowing a 5-1 lead at New York on Thursday and falling 8-6. The Rangers have followed up a three-game win streak by losing three of their last four. Still, they remain on impressive runs of 21-11 overall, 13-7 against right-handed starters, 5-0 on Friday and 10-4 in series openers.
The Red Sox dominated Texas last year, winning nine of 10 head-to-head meetings, and they’ve won eight straight against the Rangers at Fenway Park. Going back further, Boston is 25-9 in the last 34 overall against Texas and 34-9 in the last 43 clashes at Fenway.
Millwood has seven quality starts in his 11 trips to the mound this season, and he gave up two runs on five hits in six innings on Sunday against Oakland, but got a no-decision as the Rangers fell 5-4 at home. Texas has alternated wins and losses in Millwood’s last six outings, but it is 7-23 in Millwood’s last 30 road starts, 4-9 in his last 13 starts against winning teams and 1-4 in his last five on Friday.
On the highway this season, Millwood is 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in five starts. The veteran right-hander is also 1-4 with a 4-4 with a 4.46 ERA in 12 career starts against the Red Sox (3-1, 3.38 ERA in seven starts at Fenway).
Penny has given up three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six outings, including Saturday at Toronto as he yielded three runs (two earned) on 10 hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in Boston’s 5-3 loss. Penny, who hasn’t completed seven innings in any of his 10 starts this year, has a beefy 6.14 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park, but he’s 3-0 and the Sox won all four games.
Penny’s experience against Texas is limited to two interleague starts in 2003 and 2004 with the Marlins, and he went 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA.
With Millwood pitching, the Rangers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 16-5-2 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 4-0 against A.L. East squads and 15-3-2 when pitching on grass. Conversely, the over is 6-3-1 in Penny’s 10 starts this year (3-0-1 at home).
Texas carries “under” trends of 12-5-1 overall, 9-3-1 on the road, 10-4-1 versus righty starters and 5-2 on Fridays. Similarly, the Red Sox have stayed low in seven of their last nine overall and five of seven at home, and the under is also 4-0-2 in their last six on Friday and 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. On the flip side, four of the last five Rangers-Red Sox clashes at Fenway have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians
We head to the south side of the Second City for a three-game set between the host Chicago White Sox and the visiting Cleveland Indians. Game One of the series is set for Friday night at US Cellular Field with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10PM Eastern Time. The White Sox enter off a loss to the A’s on Thursday 7 to 0 which was their second shut-out loss in their last three games. The Sox lead the majors in that department having been shut-out eight times already this season. Chicago has struggled at the plate when playing at home batting a mere .220 as a team at US Cellular this year. The White Sox will send left-hander John Danks to the bump with his 4-3 W/L record and ERA of 4.80. Over his last seven trips to the bump he has pitched six of fewer innings and that is not a good sign for him since he is 1-4 W/L versus the Tribe with an ERA of 5.31 in eight career starts. The Sox only manage to plate 3.5 runs per game at home and their bullpen has an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.431 when taking the hill at US Cellular this season. The Indians will send right-hander Carl Pavano to the hill with his 5-4 W/L record and ERA of 5.29 on the season. Pavano faced the Sox for the first time since 2004 back on May 11 and managed to get the win 9 to 4 allowing four runs on ten hits. Pavano started the 2009 campaign by going 0-3 W/L with an ERA of 9.50 during the month of April but he rebounded in May posting a record of 5-1 W/L with an ERA of 3.60 and looks to build upon those solid performances with a win here tonight. The Tribe has won six of Carl’s last seven trips to the bump. Pavano is 50-32 W/L (+19.8) against division opponents since 1997, 4-0 W/L following a quality start in his last start, 5-1 W/L last 6 when he is installed as an underdog and the Indians are 4-1 W/L their last five when facing a team with a losing record. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects an Indians win by 0.89 runs over the Sox in tonight’s contest. The Math Model and Pitcher Performance Efficiency Index also project a Tribe win over the boys from the south side so we are backing the visitor as they surprise the Sox and get the game one win at US Cellular Field on Friday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Cleveland Indians 5 Chicago White Sox 4
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Kansas City w/Greinke vs. Romero
Kansas City ace Zach Greinke takes on Ricky Romero and the Blue Jays in the opener of a 3-game series in Toronto tonight. Greinke enters tonight fray in terrific KW form with 2 walks and 23 strikeouts in his last three starts while Romero owns a sky-high 9.72 ERA in his last two starts. With Greinke 4-1 in his last five road starts, look for the Royals to beat the Blue Jays here this evening.
Jimmy The Moose
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Over
The Cubs have played the over in 2 of their last 3 games. The offense hasn't been overly impressive of late but tonight vs. Owings they'll look potent. The Over is 7-2-1 in Chicago's last 10 games as a road favorite. The over is 5-2 in Dempster's last 7 starts as a road favorite. The Reds have played over the total in 7 of their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds have played the over in 7 of Owings last 9 starts. His last 4 home starts have played over the total. Play the over.
Craig Trapp
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Over 7½
Betting Trends
-Over is 27-13-1 in Twins last 41 vs. American League West.
-Over is 7-1 in Hernandezs last 8 home starts.
-Over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings.
-Over is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings in Seattle.
These two teams have already played each other 7 times and they have lit up the score board in all but one game. These two have totaled over 8 runs in all but one game this year and four of those game they scored double digits. Both Loriano and Hernandez have not pitched well or pitched deep into games. Look for both starters to give up at least 3 runs. The bullpens for both clubs is not horrible but having to pitch 3-4 innings will wear them out and they will give up a few runs also. MIN has been very good at the plate lately, yesterday they scored 11 runs in the last game of the CLE series. Look for more fireworks as both these teams will score plenty. SCORE MIN 7 - SEA 5
JIM FEIST
TAMPA BAY RAYS / NEW YORK YANKEES
Take UNDER
Tampa Bay's offense is much more productive at home and they suffered a tough blow this week as third baseman Evan Longoria has a sore left hamstring. Longoria, who leads the AL in voting for this year's All-Star game, was hurt running out a grounder this week. He underwent tests that included an MRI exam. The Yankees have seen hard throwing Tampa Bay lefty David Price before -- last season, when he fanned 4 in 5 innings with no walks, and a 3.38 ERA. The kid is even better this season, with 17 Ks in 9 innings! C.C. Sabathia is in a groove, throwing great, and doesn't walk anyone. Look for a rare pitcher's duel in the new Yankee Stadium, play the Rays/Yankees under the total.
Red Dog Sports
Milwaukee at Atlanta
Play: Under 8
Gallardo has an ERA of 3.18 while Vazquez has an ERA of 3.58. There has been 23 unders amd 8 overs in the last 31 meetings in Atlanta and the under has prevailed 39 times in the last 55 meetings. Look for the under to profit on Friday night.
Jeff Benton
For Friday’s free play on the diamond, we’ll the Cardinals on the run line (-1½ runs) against Colorado.
The Rockies avoided getting swept at Houston on Thursday with an easy 10-3 victory. However, they’re still just 3-7 in their last 10 games, and since starting the season 3-1, they’ve won consecutive games just four times all year (and never more than two in a row). What’s more, 15 of the team’s last 17 defeats have been of multiple-run variety.
Tonight, Colorado runs up against the Cardinals (31-23 overall, 19-11 at home) and #2 starter Adam Wainwright, who has been rock solid pretty much all season. Prior to suffering a 5-3 loss at San Francisco in his last start Sunday, Wainwright had surrendered exactly one run in each of his previous three outings, giving up a total of 12 hits in 23 2/3 innings (1.14 ERA).
Despite the loss in San Francisco on Sunday, the Cardinals are still 7-3 in Wainwright’s last 10 trips to the mound, and they covered the run line in five of those victories. On the other hand, there’s Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa, who is 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA in 10 starts this season, eight of which Colorado has lost. Even worse, in his last three trips to the mound, De La Rosa is 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA (18 runs allowed in 12 innings), with the Rockies losing to the Braves, Dodgers and Padres by a combined tally of 33-12.
Finally, Wainwright has faced the Rockies six times in his career (two starts), going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, De La Rosa is 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 games (four starts) versus the Cards, and he hasn’t gotten out of the sixth inning in any of the four starts (with Colorado losing three of those by scores of 7-4, 9-4 and 10-6).
Throw in the fact that the Rockies, who played at Houston last night then caught a red-eye flight to St. Louis, are 7-15 in their last 22 games against the Cardinals (2-9 last 11 at St. Louis), and this is a perfect situation for blowout win by the home team. Lay the 1½ runs.
3♦ ST. LOUIS -1½
Matt Rivers
For Friday let's once again back the Greinke's!
There is no doubt that the Toronto Blue Jays are clearly better than the Kansas City Royals and being up North is not a bad thing for Cito Gaston's squad but I am going to ride the potential Cy Young award winner today in Greinke, even at this dreaded road chalk price.
Ricky Romero is okay and a guy that can hold his own in a spot such as this against the fading Royals but Greinke has been God all season long and until I see anything change I can't help but back the righty at what is a fairly cheap price. We have not seen dominance like this in quite some time and at this price how can you do anything else but take your chances on the visitors!?!?!?
If Greinke finally comes back down to Earth today then we are in a boatload of trouble as Wells, Hill, Rios and the Jays can bash the ball and do field the clear superior squad. But at this point with the way Greinke has been dominating opponent after opponent I can't help but ride the wave.
At some point Greinke will get hit as he just has to be it the Law of Averages alone. But until we get to that point I'll lay a small amount with arguably the best hurler on the planet right now.
GINA
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Go with the Mariners with Felix Hernandez on the hill. If the right-hander performs again like he did last Saturday, the Twins will have a tough assignment. Hernandez didn't allow an earned run over 6 1/3 innings against the Angels. He is 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA in eight career starts against the Twins. Meanwhile, Minnesota's lefthander Francisco Liriano is 0-3 with a 12.00 ERA in his last three starts and the Twins have lost his last 4 starts, 1-5 in Liriano's last 6 starts on the road. The Mariners have won five of their last 7 games overall.
Seattle Mariners -155
Mr A
Detroit Tigers -170
Houston Astros -130
MLB Computer Picks
New York Mets +115
Kansas City Royals -140
St. Louis Cardinals -180
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona +105 at SAN DIEGO
Today we're handing out and FREE winner on the Diamondbacks as they invade Petco Park in San Diego to take on the Padres.
San Diego is just way too inconsistent to back tonight as this team can look great for a two-week period and then go through two weeks where they look like they don't belong in professional baseball. Tonight we're going to play the D'Backs.
The Padres have the very inconsistent Chad Gaudin (2-3, 4.76 ERA) on the mound tonight. Two starts ago he got knocked around by the DBacks, giving up five hits, five walks and seven runs over 5.1 innings. Then in Colorado six days later he allowed just two runs in 6.1 innings of a 5-2 win. But if he gives up anything more than three runs tonight, his offense isn't going to bail him out.
The San Diego offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, worst in the National League, and their pitching staff has a 4.69 ERA. The Padres have won just once in their last six games and got swept at home by the Phillies, losing Wednesday's season finale 5-1.
Doug Davis (2-6, 3.65 ERA) will be on the hill for Arizona and he faced the Padres back on May 25 and gave up two earned runs on five hits in 7.1 innings. He was solid on Saturday against the Braves when he gave up two runs in seven innings and struck out six. This veteran hurler has dominated the Padres lately, going 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his last seven outings.
We'll play the DBacks tonight to get Davis enough support to get the win. Play Arizona.
3♦ ARIZONA
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Atlanta
After dropping three of four in Florida, the Brewers look to bounce back and build on their 6-1 record in Yovani Gallardo's last 7 starts. Milwaukee is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115).
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 14.811; Washington (Martis) 13.775
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.931; Cincinnati (Owings) 14.522
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); Over
Game 905-906: San Francisco at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.539; Florida (Volstad) 14.975
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+155); Under
Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.672; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.773
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.134; Houston (Hampton) 14.770
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Over
Game 911-912: Colorado at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.919; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.218
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+170); Under
Game 913-914: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 14.330; San Diego (Gaudin) 15.358
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Under
Game 915-916: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.625; LA Dodgers (Milton) 16.358
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under
Game 917-918: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.186; Detroit (Verlander) 14.628
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+165); Under
Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.739; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.349
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+190); Under
Game 921-922: Texas at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 16.228; Boston (Penny) 17.733
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under
Game 923-924: Kansas City at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.236; Toronto (Romero) 12.865
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-145); Over
Game 925-926: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 14.869; White Sox (Danks) 15.426
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over
Game 927-928: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.555; Oakland (Braden) 14.998
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Under
Game 929-930: Minnesota at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 16.741; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.619
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+155); Under
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
The Angels are 13-4 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and 3-0 THIS SEASON as a 140+ dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start. The Tigers are 4-18 after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers. Consider the Halos.
Play on: LA Angels
Tom Freese
Arizona at San Diego
Arizona starter Doug Davis is 10-4 in his career against San Diego. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 their last 5 road games vs. losing teams and they are 4-1 in Game 1 of series. Arizona is 5-2 vs. a pitcher that has a WHIP of over 1.30. San Diego is 3-12 of a day off and they are 6-16 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Padres are 3-7 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 3-8 their last 11 games off a loss. PLAY ON ARIZONA + w/Davis