Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -135
At 17-6 on the season, Boston is one of the premier home clubs in baseball. They'll get my support at Fenway at this price tonight. The Red Sox have had Texas' number, going 9-2 at home and 15-5 overall against the Rangers over the last 3 seasons. While Brad Penny's ERA is 5.63 on the season, he has proven to be a winner with a 5-1 mark. The good news is that the Red Sox are 4-0 in his home starts in 2009 and that he has brought his ERA down to 3.50 over his last 3 starts. Millwood has not gotten the run support he's needed on the road as the Rangers are just 1-4 in his road starts this season. The Rangers are 7-23 in Millwood's last 30 road starts and 3-11 in his last 14 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 82-35 in their last 117 games as a home favorite and 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the BoSox tonight.
Big Al McMordie
Atlanta/Milwaukee Under
At 7:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves 'under' the total. This is a pitching matchup of two very good 2nd year players: one being a Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo and the other being Atlanta's Jair Jurrgens. Gallardo has had run support problems this season, although he seems to find a way to win a lot of those games. And tonight's venue, Turner Field, hasn't always been that kind to the Atlanta hitters. In a recent nine-game home-stand, the Braves were shutout twice and only scored one run on two other occasions. And the Brewers seem to have the exact same problem when they're away from home. In its last nine road games, Milwaukee had only scored a total of 36 runs. The Brewers have gone 'under' the total in 34 of their last 50 vs. the NL East teams, and I look for a low-scoring game tonight with Gallardo and Jurrjens on the mound. Take the 'under'.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
The Baltimore Orioles may have gone OVER the total in 16 of their 24 road games this season, but they have stayed UNDER the number in five of their last six trips to Oakland. Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has a 2.55 ERA in three career starts against the A’s. Oakland lefty Dallas Braden has had even more success with a 1.50 ERA in his three starts. Braden has gone UNDER the total all seven times over the last two seasons at home with a money line of $1.00 to $1.50. When the total is between 7 and 8.5 he has stayed UNDER the number in 11 of 14 games. Go with the UNDER
Play on: UNDER
LT Profits
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
C.C. Sabathia is starting to live up to his fat (no pun intended) contract for the New York Yankees, while David Price is handling his transition to a starting pitcher well, so look Under in the Bronx Friday evening.
After a slow start with his new team, Sabathia is again up to his old habits, reeling off five consecutive Quality Starts. Perhaps just as importantly, he has been a workhorse, pitching at least seven innings in those five starts, which takes the shaky Yankees middle relief out of the equation here. He has been brilliant vs. the Rays, tossing seven straight Quality Starts against them.
Price was a vital member of bullpen during the amazing Rays World Series run last season, even picking up s few saves. He has always been groomed to be a starter however, and after going just 3.1 innings in his first starts this season due to a high pitch count caused by six strikeouts and five walks (he still allowed only two runs and four hits), he was stretched out a bit vs. the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.
Price went 5.2 innings that day, allowing only one run and five hits with an impressive 11 strikeouts. Sure, he will probably not go beyond six innings until he is stretched out fully, but that is not necessarily a bad thing as the Tampa Bay bullpen ranks fourth in the American League with a 3.97 ERA.
Given that Sabathia should eat up enough innings to nullify the biggest threat to this Under, the New York long relief, Under looks like the play tonight.
Pick: Rays/Yankees Under 9
Karl Garrett
Texas +120 at BOSTON
G-Man is on an 11-5 comp play run heading into Friday night's card, and tonight on the diamond I say let's take a shot with the underdog Rangers.
We all know Texa has some serious lumber in their lineup, and we also know that Brad Penny sports a season ERA of 5.63. Chances look good for the Rangers to get untracked in the Fenway band-box tonight against Penny.
Kevin Millwood counters with an ERA of just 3.23, and I don't see any reason the AL West leaders can't steal a game to open the weekend in Beantown?
Boston has won their last 4 which means they are "due" for a loss, so let's side with the invaders from Texas, as the Rangers knock the ball around the yard a little, and take the first game of this weekend set.
Texas the call!
2♦ TEXAS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Baltimore at OAKLAND -120
For Friday night, take Oakland at home over Baltimore.
The A's have a little momentum, as they just swept the White Sox in Chicago, and have now won 4 of their last 5 games. With a good weekend they can even their home season mark which currently stands at 11-13.
Starter Dallas Braden is 1-0 over his last 3 starts, and he has gone 2-1 against the Orioles the last 3 times he has faced them.
Baltimore comes to town with an 8-17 road mark, and starter Jeremy Guthrie is just 1-2 on the road this season with a bloated 6.57 ERA.
Last year the Athletics went 5-0 against the Orioles, and we will back them to pick right up where they left off last season with the win tonight.
Play the A's.
5♦ OAKLAND
Jr Tips
PHILLIES vs. DODGERS
Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.75 ERA)takes the mound for the first time since his milestone win as the Phillies continue a four-game series with the Dodgers tonight. Philadelphia (32-20) got a five-hitter from Cole Hamels on Thursday night in a 3-0 victory over Los Angeles (37-19). The NL East-leading Phillies didn't allow an earned run for the second straight contest and have a 2.71 ERA during a seven-game winning streak. They haven't won eight straight since May 2006. of this series. Moyer struggled against the Dodgers on May 13, surrendering seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-2 defeat. He's 3-7 with a 6.51 ERA in 12 starts against Los Angeles, including a loss in Game 3 of last season's NL championship series. The Dodgers starter Milton (2-0, 3.14) earned consecutive wins after going nearly three years without one. On Sunday night, Milton gave up two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings of Los Angeles' 8-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. Milton is 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA in four starts versus the Phillies. Los Angeles' lineup has really missed suspended outfielder Manny Ramirez lately, managing just two runs against starting pitchers in its last four games. The Philies are the hottest team in baseball right now and the Dodgers are struggling to score runs and Milton will have trouble keeping the Phillies off the bases.
TAKE PHILLIES +120
INDIANCOWBOY
Take Cleveland Indians @ Chicago Whitesox Over 9
The last time Pavano faced the Whitesox he gave up 10 hits in 6 innings and gave up 4 runs en route to an Indians 9-4 win. Props. But, the Whitesox are one of the best at making adjustments as their hitters are the same ones that picked up 3 runs on Greinke that up to then no team was really able to do. Pavano has had several quality starts of late and I believe he is likely in for a let down on the road. Also, keep in mind that Danks has defeated the Indians as well too so both set of hitters are looking for revenge against the other respective pitcher. I look for both offenses to likely have success today as whenever it is a round 2, the pitcher or a batting lineup - whoever lost the time before, has a sense of revenge the next time around. After all, that is what has helped cash at least 4 plays during this 7 of 8 comp play run. It is a simple philosophy but has great value to it. The over is 8-2 for the Indians as an Underdog of +100 to +150 and the over is 4-0 in Danks's last 4 starts.
Randall The Handle
NY Mets +1.13 over WASHINGTON PINNACLE
The Nationals are 4-20 over its last 24 games, 3-11 over its last 14 home games, they were swept at home yesterday by the Giants and they’re what, about 20 games out in the first week of June. Very nice team. Now, after hanging around the park yesterday for about 14 hours or more and losing twice, they’re right back at it and if, as the players say, baseball is 90% mental, then the Nats should be in an asylum any time now. This Washington team has to be feeling almost embarrassed and being at home in front of tiny crowds can’t help their psyche much either. Not only are they losing but they’ve stopped scoring runs now too, as they’ve scored two runs or less in five of its last nine contests. You think they feel like playing baseball? I think not, as this is a group of players that are so mentally damaged right now that laying juice with them is very likely to be detrimental to your bankroll. The Mets have to be feeling rather excited about coming here. Does it matter who’s pitching? Play: NY Mets +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.03 over ATLANTA PINNACLE
You’ll have to excuse me, as I crap in my pants over the Braves picking up Nate McClouth from the Pirates. Yeah, McClouth is a decent player but the media is making him out to be the second coming of Chipper Jones, when in fact, he is not. McClouth is hitting .256 this year and he’s a .262 career hitter. He does have power and he’s a damn good centerfielder but if you think he’s going to turn this offensively challenged offense into a feared one, think again. What I do know is that Yollandi Gallardo is a monster out there and when he pitches the Brewers usually win. He’s coming off a short outing in which he went 5.2 innings against the Reds and threw just 97 pitches. He came out early because the Brewers had the lead and prior to that he shut out the Cardinals in eight innings in a 1-0 win in which he threw 127 pitches. The Brewers are 7-3 when he starts and he ranks among the league leaders in every key pitching category. The Braves will send out the always-tough Jair Jurrjens but when comparing the two, Gallardo is still more dangerous and by the way, so is the Brewers offense. Play: Milwaukee +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.27 over LOS ANGELES PINNACLE
Pretty easy pulling the trigger on the red-hot Phillies right now, especially at this price and against this pitcher. The Phillies have won seven in a row and 16 of its last 20 games. Wow. They came in here last night and beat the Dodgers 3-0 and have now beaten L.A. in 10 of their last 13 match-ups. Furthermore, the Dodgers are laboring at the plate right now, having scored two runs or less in six of its last eight games. That includes one run against Jon Garland, two against Billy Buckner and one against Ted Lilly. Eric Milton goes for the Dodgers and although he’s pitched well, don’t be fooled. This guy has been off for 1½-years and picked up his first win in three years two starts ago. He was a below average pitcher before his layoff and he’s no better now. Anyway, the Phillies are feeling it right now and it’s rarely bad strategy playing on a scorching hot team. Play: Philadelphia +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
Game Hunter
METS +114 (2.5 UNITS)
HOUSTON -126 (1.75 UNITS)
ST. LOUIS -1.5 RUNS (+130) (1.5 UNITS)
ARIZONA +112 (1.5 UNITS)
TEXAS +130 (1.5 UNITS)
TAMPA BAY +190 (1 UNIT)
CLEVELAND +121 (1.5 UNITS)
BALTIMORE +112 (1.75 UNITS)
OVER MINN/SEA 8 RUNS (-102) (1.75 UNITS )
Vernon Croy
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Texas Rangers
We are getting solid value here tonight with the Texas Rangers who are 10-2 in their last 12 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after a loss and they are 4-0 in Kevin Millwood's (4-4, 3.23 ERA) last 4 starts in game 1 of a series. Millwood has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of 3.96 while averaging 7.3 innings per start and he should get the run support he needs tonight with the Rangers who are averaging 6.0 rpg over their last 7 games. The Red Sox are just 1-4 in their last 5 games against a team from the AL West division and Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.14 over 4 starts while averaging just 5.5 innings per start. Grab the Value with the Texas Rangers.
JACK JONES
15* on Texas Rangers +126
The Red Sox have been tough at home, but I'll take the Rangers tonight in Fenway with Kevin Millwood on the mound. So far this season Millwood is 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Brad Penny takes the mound for the Red Sox, and while he has improved over his last three starts, he still has a 5.63 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP this season, including a 6.14 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in Boston. The Rangers are scoring 5.4 runs per game, just a slight advantage over the Red Sox, and behind a strong outing from Millwood I think they take the first game of this series in Boston.
Randall The Handle
NY Mets +1.13 over WASHINGTON
The Nationals are 4-20 over its last 24 games, 3-11 over its last 14 home games, they were swept at home yesterday by the Giants and they’re what, about 20 games out in the first week of June. Very nice team. Now, after hanging around the park yesterday for about 14 hours or more and losing twice, they’re right back at it and if, as the players say, baseball is 90% mental, then the Nats should be in an asylum any time now. This Washington team has to be feeling almost embarrassed and being at home in front of tiny crowds can’t help their psyche much either. Not only are they losing but they’ve stopped scoring runs now too, as they’ve scored two runs or less in five of its last nine contests. You think they feel like playing baseball? I think not, as this is a group of players that are so mentally damaged right now that laying juice with them is very likely to be detrimental to your bankroll. The Mets have to be feeling rather excited about coming here. Does it matter who’s pitching? Play: NY Mets +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.03 over ATLANTA
You’ll have to excuse me, as I crap in my pants over the Braves picking up Nate McClouth from the Pirates. Yeah, McClouth is a decent player but the media is making him out to be the second coming of Chipper Jones, when in fact, he is not. McClouth is hitting .256 this year and he’s a .262 career hitter. He does have power and he’s a damn good centerfielder but if you think he’s going to turn this offensively challenged offense into a feared one, think again. What I do know is that Yollandi Gallardo is a monster out there and when he pitches the Brewers usually win. He’s coming off a short outing in which he went 5.2 innings against the Reds and threw just 97 pitches. He came out early because the Brewers had the lead and prior to that he shut out the Cardinals in eight innings in a 1-0 win in which he threw 127 pitches. The Brewers are 7-3 when he starts and he ranks among the league leaders in every key pitching category. The Braves will send out the always-tough Jair Jurrjens but when comparing the two, Gallardo is still more dangerous and by the way, so is the Brewers offense. Play: Milwaukee +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.27 over LOS ANGELES
Pretty easy pulling the trigger on the red-hot Phillies right now, especially at this price and against this pitcher. The Phillies have won seven in a row and 16 of its last 20 games. Wow. They came in here last night and beat the Dodgers 3-0 and have now beaten L.A. in 10 of their last 13 match-ups. Furthermore, the Dodgers are laboring at the plate right now, having scored two runs or less in six of its last eight games. That includes one run against Jon Garland, two against Billy Buckner and one against Ted Lilly. Eric Milton goes for the Dodgers and although he’s pitched well, don’t be fooled. This guy has been off for 1½-years and picked up his first win in three years two starts ago. He was a below average pitcher before his layoff and he’s no better now. Anyway, the Phillies are feeling it right now and it’s rarely bad strategy playing on a scorching hot team. Play: Philadelphia +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee -110 at ATLANTA
Another Free Play winner with the Giants over the Nationals 4-1 in the second game of the doubleheader! Now 7-2 with my L9 Freebies, and we keep it rolling on the Diamond Friday...
Although the Brewers' Yovani Gallardo got shelled in his last road game, he recovered nicely over his last two starts at home, allowing just 1 run over his last 13 1/3 innings, striking out 15 along the way! Despite that effort versus the Astros, Gallarado has been reliable on the highway, going 2-1 with a solid 3.48 ERA. I'm looking for him to redeem himself tonight at Turner, and he was great in his only start against them there, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 innings, but that was back in September of '07.
Opposing Gallardo is the Braves Jair Jurrjens, who's also pitched well despite getting shelled in his last start, at Arizona. His ERA is slightly higher at home, going 2-1 with a solid 3.08 ERA thus far this season, but that's not his biggest problem. His biggest issue in this contest is run support, as the Braves do not hit righties well at home, and have been especially bad against the Brewers...
There's a reason why Atlanta's home record is below .500, and that's been a lack of offense, batting .250 against righties at home and averaging just 3.2 run per game in that spot. What's worse, is they've been terrible against the Brew Crew in the past, going 3-6 against them last season, averaging just 2.7 runs per game! It's not going to get any easier against Gallardo, who got his stuff together over his last 2 starts and will be on point tonight at Turner. It doesn't hurt that the Braves bullpen has also been a disaster of late, posting an ugly 6.06 ERA over their last 3 games. In the end, the play here rest squarely on the Brewers.
Take Milwaukee behind Gallardo over Atlanta and Jurrjens in this MLB match up.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection:
Pittsbugrh Pirates/Houston Astros over 9
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
272 - 177 run 60 % Fri Florida
Short term win run almost 75%
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
(908) Atlanta Braves -$113
(Listing Jurrjens and Gallardo)
The Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens 5-2
record is actually very impressive when you factor
in that during a stretch of six starts this season the
Braves offense only scored him a total of nine runs.
Jurrjens has shown the ability to shutdown opponents
in close games and I look for him to do the same to
the Milwaukee lineup tonight. The Brewers are only
1-4 in Gallardo's last five starts as a road underdog.
I like the Braves to pick up the win here.
2009 Free Selections Record 83-68 (55.0%)
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