SPORTS ADVISORS
Boston (36-24) at Philadelphia (35-23)
The Red Sox send southpaw Jon Lester (5-5, 5.09 ERA) to the mound as they open a three-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies and Joe Blanton (4-3, 5.46).
Boston capped a six-game homestand with Thursday’s 4-3 victory over the Yankees, completing a three-game sweep over its division rivals. The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and they’ve won four straight on the highway. Also, despite losing two of three at home to the Mets last month, Boston is still 53-18 in its last 71 interleague contests, including 24-9 in its last 33 on the road and 35-17 in its last 52 versus N.L. East foes.
Philadelphia ended a 10-game, three-city road trip in New York on Thursday, grabbing a 6-3, 10-inning win over the Mets to finish the journey with a 7-3 mark. The Phillies are on impressive runs of 10-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 in interleague play (all against the A.L. East), 4-1 on Friday, 40-17 against winning teams, 20-6 versus left-handed starters and 12-2 at home against southpaws.
The Red Sox took two of three last year at Citizens Bank and they’re 13-3 in the last 16 battles with the Phillies, including 8-2 in the last 10 in Philadelphia.
Lester is coming off a complete-game, 8-1 home victory over Texas, taking a perfect game into the seventh inning and finishing allowing one run on two hits with two walks and 11 strikeouts. Over his last two starts, including an 8-2 victory at Toronto, Lester has surrendered a combined two runs, five hits and five walks with 23 strikeouts. However, he’s still just 2-3 with a 6.14 ERA in six road efforts this season.
Boston is 42-20 in Lester’s last 62 starts overall, 7-1 in his last eight interleague outings and 5-0 in his last five against the N.L. East. However, the Sox have lost four straight Friday contests behind Lester. His only career start against the Phillies came a year ago in Philadelphia, and he pitched seven scoreless innings en route to a 3-0 victory.
Blanton has been sharp in his last three outings, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. He got a no-decision Saturday in Los Angeles, limiting the Dodgers to a run on five hits in six innings, but the Phillies lost 3-2 in 12 innings. With Blanton pitching, Philadelphia is on hot streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in series openers and 9-2 at home, where the portly right-hander is 1-2 with a hefty 6.75 ERA in five starts this season.
Blanton made eight starts against the Red Sox when he was with Oakland, going 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA.
For the Red Sox, the “under” is on streaks of 21-6-2 overall, 7-2 on the road, 13-3-2 against right-handed starters, 7-2-1 in interleague action, 5-0-2 on Friday, 4-0 in series openers and 4-1 when Lester faces National League competition. Similarly, the Phillies carry “under” trends of 13-5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-2 against southpaw starters, 13-3-1 in interleague play, 4-0 against the A.L. East.
Conversely, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these clubs and 4-1 in the last five clashes in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Mets (31-27) at N.Y. Yankees (34-26)
The Yankees and Mets renew their Subway Series rivalry with the first-ever meeting at new Yankee Stadium. Joba Chamberlain (3-1, 3.79) is scheduled to toe the slab for the home team against Mets veteran Livan Hernandez (5-1, 3.88).
The Mets ended a three-game set against division rival Philadelphia with last night’s 6-3 loss in 10 innings. New York has followed up a 7-2 run by losing six of its last nine. The Mets have also dropped five of their last seven road games, but the two victories came last month in an interleague series in Boston. Jerry Manuel’s club is 4-1 in its last five games in American League parks, 5-1 in its last six series openers and 37-18 in its last 55 on Friday.
The Yankees return home after getting swept in Boston this week, ending with Thursday’s 4-3 loss. The Bronx Bombers still remain on positive runs of 19-9 overall, 12-4 at home, 8-2 on Friday, 55-22 when hosting N.L. competition. However, they did lose two of three to the Phillies at the new stadium three weeks ago.
The Mets went 4-2 against their rivals last season, including sweeping a three-game set at old Yankee Stadium by the combined score of 33-12.
Hernandez dominated the Nationals in a 7-0 victory Sunday, scattering four hits and four walks in seven scoreless innings. The 34-year-old right-hander has won five straight decisions and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, going 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four trips to the mound.
Hernandez is 3-1 with a 4.07 ERA in seven road starts, but 0-3 with a 6.37 ERA in five career starts versus the Yankees.
Chamberlain has given up three earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts, going at least six innings in four of those contests. In his most recent outing Sunday against the Rays, Chamberlain allowed three runs on five hits in six innings, failing to get a decision in his team’s 4-3 victory.
The Yanks are 5-1 in Chamberlain’s last six starts and 4-1 in his five outings at home, where the hard-throwing right-hander is 0-1 with a 5.48 ERA this year. Chamberlain’s experience against the Mets is limited to one inning of relief, and he gave up a run on two hits.
The over is 19-7-2 in the Mets’ last 28 interleague road games, but otherwise, they’re on “under” tears of 4-1 on the road, 5-1 in interleague action (all against the A.L. East), 5-2 in series openers and 43-19-7 when playing on Friday. For the Yanks, the “under” is on runs of 12-5-2 overall, 7-1 in interleague home games, 6-0 against the N.L. East, 4-0 on Friday and 4-1-1 with Chamberlain on the hill.
On the flip side, the final five Subway Series clashes at former Yankee Stadium last year went over the total, and the over is 3-1-1 in Chamberlain’s five home starts this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Dunkel Index
Washington at Tampa Bay
The Rays open up the interleague series looking to build on their 7-2 record in Matt Garza's last 9 home starts with the total set between 9 and 10 1/2. Tampa Bay is the pick (-230) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-230).
Game 951-952: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 14.661; Arizona (Haren) 14.169
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+175); Over
Game 953-954: Minnesota at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 15.338; Cubs (Wells) 16.140
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 955-956: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.993; Philadelphia (Blanton) 17.049
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Over
Game 957-958: Detroit at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.720; Pittsburgh (Snell) 15.865
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 14.924; Cleveland (Huff) 16.237
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Over
Game 961-962: Florida at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.923; Toronto (Halladay) 16.634
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-275); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-275); Under
Game 963-964: NY Mets at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 15.660; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.143
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+190); Over
Game 965-966: Atlanta at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.206; Baltimore (Berken) 14.014
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-115); Under
Game 967-968: Washington at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 13.867; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.404
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-230); Over
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 15.783; Milwaukee (Suppan) 14.627
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under
Game 971-972: LA Dodgers at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.945; Texas (Padilla) 16.108
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under
Game 973-974: Cincinnati at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Maloney) 13.786; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over
Game 975-976: Seattle at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 16.767; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.674
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+145); Over
Game 977-978: San Diego at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Gaudin) 13.875; LA Angels (Palmer) 15.316
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 979-980: Oakland at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.794; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.337
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over
NHL
Pittsburgh at Detroit
The Red Wings look to bounce back from their 2-1 loss in Game Six and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Detroit is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170).
Game 13-14: Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.317; Detroit 14.796
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Under
JIM FEIST
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Rick Ankiel continues to play well, finishing a single short of the cycle in a big win over Florida. He scored three times, once on his fourth home run. "'Anks' can carry this team," said one player. The 18 hits were the Cardinals' most since April 11. Starter Joel Pineiro has been effective, with a 5-6 record and a 3.97 ERA. He faces an Indians team in last place with all kinds or problems. Grady Sizmore is on the DL, Kelly Shoppach is in a 4-for-30 skid, and starter David Huff has been awful (8.71 ERA, 40 base runners in 20 innings). The visitors hold the cards in this Interleague matchup. Play the Cardinals.
BIG AL
Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays
At 7:35pm our member selection is on the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total. Most visiting teams don't have to travel to far for this weekend inter-league series as the majority of the games feature two teams from neighboring states or metropolitan areas. Not so for the members of the Nationals, who have to travel south some 1000 miles or so to visit Tropicana Field which is unfortunately for them home of one of the most potent offenses in the American League. It almost doesn't seem fair to the over-matched Nats pitching staff and their young rookie righthander Craig Stammen. Stammen is being introduced to inter-league play in only his fifth ever Major League start and his soft-throwing style could produce some fireworks tonight in the indoor environs down in Central Florida. Not helping matters is the fact that when tonight's Tampa Bay starter, Matt Garza, takes the mound at home, the Rays usually light up the scoreboard for him. In Garza's last five home starts, his team scored a total of 31 runs, or an average of better than six runs per game.
Play on: OVER
Frank Jordan
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins
This series has been all about who ever has been home has won so most think it will be the Red Wings that will win since game 7 is in Detroit. However I am going with Pittsburgh to get their revenge on Detroit who won last year in Pittsburgh. Look for Pittsburgh who looked good in their game 6 2-1 win at home to play tough on defense and get an early goal or two to allow them to play more aggressive leading to their 3-2 win and championship. Play Pittsburgh
Cajun Sports
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Detroit Tigers
Interleague play returns this weekend in MLB stadiums all around the country. Tonight we are interested in the game at PNC Park between the host Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting American League Central leading Detroit Tigers. Pittsburgh is coming off a 3 to 1 win in Atlanta on Thursday to get a split in the series at two games apiece. Pittsburgh’s Andy LaRoche delivered the big hit in the top of the ninth with a two-out two-run single to secure the win and split the four-game series versus the Atlanta Braves. For Detroit they also had a big hit in the ninth on Thursday by Curtis Granderson who hit a tying two-run homerun with two outs in the top of the ninth versus the White Sox. The downside to this is Joel Zumaya of the Tigers gave up a game winning RBI single in the bottom of the ninth as the Tigers lose 4 to 3. Good news for the boys from the Motor City is they will be facing the worst team in interleague play with the Pirates posting a record of 64-105 W/L against the American League during the regular season. Their inability to defeat AL teams has already surfaced this season as they lost two of three to the White Sox last month during the first round of interleague action. Pittsburgh has won six of ten games this month but the AL Central leading Tigers loss on Thursday was only their second in their last seven times to post. The Pirates will send Ian Snell to the bump with his 1-6 W/L record and ERA of 5.54 on the season. Since his lone win Snell has gone 0-4 W/L with an ERA of 6.00 over his last nine trips to the bump with the Pirates only managing to win just two of those games. Snell is 0-2 W/L with an ERA of 10.29 in his last three trips to the hill during interleague play. Detroit will send rookie right-hander Rick Porcello to the mound with his 6-4 W/L record and ERA of 3.98. Porcello was lights out in May winning all five trips to the bump with an ERA of 1.50 but he is 0-1 W/L in his two starts this month. In his last outing he was not involved in the decision although the Tigers got the win over the Angels 9 to 6 as Porcello allowed four runs and five hits over five innings of work. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projects a quality start from him in tonight’s meeting versus the Pirates. We also note that our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index is projecting a win by the Tigers by 1.7 runs and the Math Model is also on the side of the visitors so we will lay the short price as the Tigers bounce back from their loss on Thursday and continue the AL dominance over the Pirates in interleague play.
Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers 6 Pittsburgh Pirates 4
Craig Trapp
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Detroit Tigers
Records
Detroit Tigers 33-27, 16-16 away (Porcello 6-4, 3.98 ERA)
Pittsburgh Pirates 28-32, 15-11 home (Snell 1-6, 5.54 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Tigers are 27-6 in their last 33 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
-Tigers are 6-1 in Porcellos last 7 starts.
-Pirates are 3-12 in Snells last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
-Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 vs. American League Central.
Pittsburgh is absolutely outmatched at every position including manager and front office. If that was not enough PIT is the worst team in interleague play since it started at a very poor 64-105!! On the mound for PIT is Snell who has gone 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last nine starts. Even worse Snell is 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA in his last three interleague starts. In his only appearance against the Tigers on July 2, 2006, Snell gave up four runs and seven hits in five innings of a 9-8 loss. On the other side Detroit counters with rookie Rick Porcello (6-4, 3.98), who looks to break out of his little funk. Lucky for him PIT is very average at the plate and he has dominating nasty stuff. This one will not be close. SCORE: DET 6 - PIT 2
Alex Smart
Detroit Red Wings -180
This series has been dominated by the home team which is a perfect 6-0 so far. Pittsburgh face a formiddable task on Friday inside the Joe Louis Arena. In the history of the Stanley Cup, only 14 series have managed to go to the seventh game and the home team has been succesful a dozen times. More recently the home team in game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals are 11-1 with the only road success coming in 1971 when Montreal pulled off the upset against Chicago. Since 1987, home teams are a perfect 6-0.
Just to further highlight how important home ice (court) is in game 7's, home teams are 18-0 in the Stanley Cup finals, MLB World Series and NBA finals since 1980.
Pittsburgh and in particular Marc-Andre Fleury have found the going tough in Detroit. Fleury has allowed 17 goals in four games this season and has commented on more than one occassion about the much livelier boards which have assisted Red Wings goals on four occassions.
Detroit themselves are trying to become the thirty-seventh team since the 1892-93 season to win back-to-back championships and given how dominant home ice has proved in this series and the power of home teams in game seven, Detroit is the call.
Big Chalk here with Detroit Red Wings but rightly so. Laying this much lumber is not my cup of tea, but for those of you looking for some entertainment on a two team parlay card ,adding this one to the mix makes for a solid wagering situation. If your betting on this tilt SU, make sure to make a minimal wager becasue of the obvious lack of value.
Red Wings to win game 7
Marc Lawrence
Play On: NY Mets w/Hernandez
When the Mets send Livan Hernandez to the mound against the Yankees tonight they will do so knowing his 19 wins in Interleague play are the most of any active pitcher in the majors today. With the Pinstripes off a big series with Boston, we'll back BUD, this Big Ugly Dog, here this evening as the Mets improve to 9-1 in Fridays, their best day of the week this season.
Scott Spreitzer
New York Mets at New York Yankees
Prediction: Over
The Yankees found yet another way to lose to the Red Sox last night. The pen didn't fail them this time, instead it was C.C. Sabathia who couldn't finish what had been a strong start. But coming home to new, hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will not help out the staff ERA. The Yanks' pen owns a hefty 4.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at home this season. That's a bad sign when you consider Joba Chamberlain's home numbers. The former Cornhusker has been rocked for a 5.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts in his new digs this season. The team has gone Over in almost 60% of their games at this venue. While pitching has struggled, there has been nothing wrong at home with their bats. The Yankees have averaged 6.5 rpg in 12 home night tilts against righthanders this season. Tonight, they'll take their swings against Livan Hernandez. The veteran righty has "escaped" with a 4.07 road ERA, despite posting a 1.45 WHIP in seven outings. Allowing that many base runners will catch up to him in this park, against this lineup. I also expect the Mets to do their share of damage against Joba. Look for plenty of runs in this one. I'm playing the Over between the Mets and Yankees on Friday.
Bobby Maxwell
Boston -120 at PHILADELPHIA
Another round of Interleague play kicks off tonight and we've got a FREE winner for you on the Red Sox as they invade Philadelphia to take on the Phillies.
The Phillies finally get home after a 10-game, three-city road trip that had them on the West Coast for the first seven games and then back in New York for the final three, including extra inning games Wednesday and Thursday. They are a tired bunch and expect the Red Sox and starter Jon Lester to take advantage of them tonight.
Lester has been great lately, giving up two runs in his last two starts (15 innings) and striking out 23 with just five walks. He's looking like the guy everyone expected at the start of the season. Saturday he had a perfect game into the seventh inning as the Sox beat the Rangers 8-2.
Boston has won four straight on the road and they just swept their rivals from New York three games at Fenway to make them now 7-0 against the Yankees this season. The Red Sox have won 13 of the last 16 meetings with the Phillies and eight of the last 10 in Philadelphia. Lester beat the Phils last year in Philadelphia, blanking them for seven innings in a 3-0 victory.
Joe Blanton goes for the Phillies and he's been brutal in front of the home fans, with a 6.75 ERA and 22 runs allowed in 29.1 innings.
Look for Boston to knock him around tonight and get another great start from lester. Play the Red Sox in this one.
2♦ BOSTON
Jeff Benton
Seattle at COLORADO (-140)
How about that big underdog winner on the Rockies over the Brewers on Thursday? I’m now on a 5-1 roll with free plays. Let’s make it six out of seven on Friday by once again backing Colorado, this time on the run line (-1½ runs) against visiting Seattle.
With yesterday’s 5-4 win in Milwaukee, the Rocks have now won eight in a row, and all eight wins came on the road. And even though closer Houston Street gave up a three-run home run to Ryan Braun with two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth to turn a 5-1 game into a 5-4 contest, the fact remains that the Rockies’ pitching has been tremendous during the streak, giving up a combined 20 runs, including run totals of 2, 2, 2, 2, 1 and 4 over the past six games.
Tonight’s starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, certainly has the kind of stuff to continue Colorado’s strong pitching run. In his last start, Jimenez held Albert Pujols and the Cardinals to two runs, four hits and one walk while striking out nine over eight innings in a 7-2 road victory. He’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, pitching at least six innings in all eight games while posting a 2.67 ERA.
Also, Jimenez has gotten a ton of run support at home this year, with Colorado averaging exactly 8½ runs in his four starts at Coors Field. Compare that with the run support the Mariners have given starter Jarrod Washburn this season: With Washburn on the hill, Seattle is averaging 3.3 runs per game overall, 2.2 runs per game on the road and it has scored total of five runs in his last five starts. Hence the reason Washburn is just 3-4 despite a solid 3.07 ERA, and hence the reason Seattle is 1-4 in Washburn’s five roadies.
Finally, this is a great situational spot. While the Rockies wrapped up their eighth straight win in Milwaukee in the afternoon then took a short trip home to Denver, the Mariners played a night game in Baltimore before boarding a cross-country red-eye flight. Add it all up, and I see no reason not to continue riding the Rockies, this time on the run line. After all, even with last night’s ninth-inning hiccup, six of their eight wins during their winning streak have been by multiple runs.
3♦ COLORADO -1½
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the money and run with the Mets.
Sure the Mets are a banged up club right now that is not coming close to clicking on all cylinders but this number is still too much in what is a quality visiting squad in a tough rivalry type of a game where both teams will be fighting as hard as teams can fight in the sport of baseball.
Losing Reyes, Delgado and Putz is definitely a trio of bad blows but to still be able to back a competent squad led by studs in David Wright and Carlos Beltran along with one of the best closers in the game in K-Rod and a guy in Livan Hernandez, who say what you want about the old man, is still getting the job done. It's as if the Cuban righthander has rewound the clock a bit and is now pitching as if he was in his 20's. I'm not fooled and realize at some point his slow and slower junk will get knocked around but at this price in a game that he will absolutely get up for I can't help but take the potentially barking dog for sure.
The Yankees are coming off of the emotional and tough series in Boston and now have to try and match that intensity here in another big spot. Sure Arod, Teixeira, Jeter and the Bombers are capable of doing just that as there is a lot of talent there and especially when in the Bronx but they also have crapped in their pants at times this season (i.e. the last three days in Beantown) and are not exactly up against a piece of garbage cupcake at all in these Mets.
More times than not Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees will prevail in this game. But after looking extremely mediocre at best against the Red Sox and being able to back a Mets squad that certainly at the very worst has some real quality pieces I will take my chances with the visitors from Flushing.
MTi Sports
Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 8-1 in the first game of a home series and the Athletics are 0-7 in the first game of a road series. Also, the A?s are 0-6 after a one run win and the Giants are a reliable 5-0 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led. Consider laying the price.
LT Profits
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox and Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies have both had disappointing seasons so far, and when you factor in the hitter-friendly dimensions of Citizens Park in Philadelphia, the Over becomes the play here.
Games in this stadium are averaging a combined 10.20 runs this season, and that is with all National League teams. This game involves a hot American League club in the Red Sox that is just not seeing one of its big sluggers, David Ortiz, awake from a season-long slumber, as he has three home runs in the last week alone.
That is bad news for Blanton, who has a 5.46 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while facing the generally lighter hitting teams of the American League. Blanton has been even worse here at home, where the fact that he allows a lot of fly balls hurts him more. He is 1-2 with a robust 6.75 ERA and a terrible 1.60 WHIP in his own stadium.
Now Lester does appear to have turned things around, and he does have an amazing 23 strikeouts in his last two starts. However, the fact that he has thrown 222 pitches in his last two starts may hurt him a bit here, and he still has not stepped things up on the road, where he owns a 6.14 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in six starts away from home.
Finally, the Over is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these clubs in interleague play, and two of their three meetings last year reached double-digit run totals. Look for more of the same tonight.
Pick: Red Sox/Phillies Over 9.5