Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -127
I'll back the better team with the better starter on the hill at a good price tonight. Snell is just 1-6 with a 5.54 ERA on the season and an even worse 0-1 with a 7.41 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Tigers are 7-4 in Porcello's starts this season and he has been at his best on the road, posting a 3.72 ERA. The Tigers are 17-4 in their last 21 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 27-6 in their last 33 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Also, the Tigers are 6-1 in Porcello's last 7 starts. Bet the Tigers.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee may have lost four straight, but they still hold a slight lead in the NL Central standings as they begin their interleague series against the White Sox. These two have not faced one another in eight seasons. The White Sox are coming off a 4-8 homestand and will now have to endure a nine-game interleague road trip. Chicago is scoring just 4.1 runs per game against right-handers this season and are three games under .500 on the road this year. Over the past three seasons, the Brewers are 71-38 at home in the first half of the season. Go with the home Brewers here.
Play on: Milwaukee
Tommy Gill
Twins / Cubs Under 8.5 for 3 units
This is my Degenerate play of the day today with the Twins and the Cubs going under the Total. Playing a Total at Wrigley field is trickey most of the time because alot of them has to do with the weather and good spots. I believe today is a good example for both with the wind blowing in at 8 MPH and 2 solid pitchers on the mound today. Slowery for the Twins (8-2 4.2 ERA) against Randy Wells (0-2 1.86 ERA) is the matchup with the starters. In Slowery starts he is 1-6 his last 7 games to the Over Under and Wells is 2-4 to the Over Under with both the Overs being the bullpen blowing there lead. Both pitchers are pitching really well there starts this season and with the Cubs on a 3-7 to the Under run not scoring well at all there last 20 games and getting a Twins team that is pathetic on road 9-20 SU I see this as a good spot for degenerate play for sure.
Under is 8-2 in MIN last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in CHC last 27 overall.
Under is 10-1-2 in Twins last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
Under is 8-2 in Twins last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 interleague games.
Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games.
Tom Freese
St. Louis at Cleveland
St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro has a 5-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 4-1 vs. AL Central teams and they 4-1 their last 5 Interleague games. The Redbirds are 5-2 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters. Cleveland is 2-8 vs. NL Central teams and they are 7-21 off a win. The Indians are 1-7 their last 8 home games vs. winning teams and they are 1-4 their last 5 Interleague games. PLAY ON ST.LOUIS (Pineiro vs. Huff)
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +110
I'll back the Phillies at an excellent price at home tonight. I know the Phils have been a better road team thus far, but they are worth a go here against the southpaw Lester as they are one of the best teams in the bigs at hitting left handed starting pitching. In fact, the Phillies are 15-6 against southpaw starters this season. They are 12-2 in their last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter period. Plus, the Phillies are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Back the Phillies.
Vernon Croy
San Diego Padres vs. LAA Angels
Play: San Diego Padres
We are getting solid value here tonight with the Padres who face Matt Palmer (5-0, 4.06 ERA). Chad Gaudin (2-4, 5.01) get's the start for the Padres and he knows this Angels team very well after facing them several times with Oakland. Gaudin allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts against the Angels and I look for him to have a lot of success again against the Angels tonight. The Angels bullpen has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.53 and their bullpen just got hammered by Tampa Bay for 5 runs in their last game after Santana gave up 6 earned. The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and the Angels are just 1-5 in their last 6 home games against a team with a road record below .400. Take the San Diego Padres
Tony George
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Winners of 12 out of their last 17 at home, I like them tonight with Randy Wells on the hill at home. Although he is 1-2 in his last 3 starts, he had no run support in those games, and he tossed out a 2.15 ERA in those 3 games. The Cubbies are solid at home. Keven Slowey is 8-2 on the year for the Twins, but in my opinion, I feel is due for a loss. The bullpens are about even and Chicago at home in Interleauge is 6-2 their last 8.
John Ryan
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Play:Kansas City Royals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Kansas City Royals as they host the Reds slated to start at 8:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-16 making 23.2 units since 1997. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season and with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. KC is also a strong 26-14 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. Reds are not in a solid role noting they are 94-144 (-45.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1997. Luke Hochevar has pitched his best baseball of the season recently. In his last start he went 6.7 innings allowing 2 ER and just 4 hits. He has an excellent slider that he throws 21% of the time and 17% of all first pitch offerings. He throws slider 32% of the time to RH hitters and uses a solid change up 16% against LH hitters. KC skipper Hillman is 26-14 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better.
Scott Rickenbach
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 10
Because this is an inter-league match-up in a hitter-friendly park this total is higher than it should be relative to the strength of pitching we expect to see here. Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers absolutely looks like he's back to pre-injury form. He's been dominating. As for Vicente Padilla of the Rangers, he may match the Dodgers hurler pitch for pitch in this one! Padilla, seemingly fired up by knowing that the Rangers were trying to get rid of him (but had no takers!), is capable of shutting down opponents when he's "in the zone" like he is now. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Texas on Friday night.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -104
Edge goes to the Reds tonight as they have played their best ball on the road this season. The Royals are really struggling, having lost 11 of their last 13 games, and I don't expect Hochevar to give them much of a chance here. The Royals are 2-8 in Hochevar's last 10 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 0-6 in his last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. The Reds are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series and 8-2 in their last 10 vs. the American League Central in interleague play. Bet the Reds here.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Kansas City Royals will be glad to get home, as over the past several years this young team just hasn't responded on the road. They have been 3-15 in their last 18 games on the road. They are a much different team at home, where they have played .500 on the season. They led the majors last year against left-hand pitching. In interleague play, they are 12-2 against southpaws in their last 14, and are averaging close to a half of a run more against lefties than righties on the season. The Reds have been one of the worst interleague road teams at 12-25 over their last 37, and they are just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road against a right-hand starter. I'm going with the Royals here.
ATS Consultants
Cleveland Indians / St. Louis Cardinals OVER 10
Hopefully the seagulls will stay away tonight, although the Indians owe a big thanks you for their win over KC on Thursday. Rookie David Huff takes on Joel Piniero in this interleague matchup.
Huff (1-2, 8.71) has struggled thus far, but the Tribe seem to be sticking with him as he looks like a future #2 or #3 starter. Huff got his first big league win last out, and hopes to continue the momentum tonight when Pujols and the Cards come to town.
St Louis got a lucky break last night as well, winning after a late rally highlighted by a key 2 run error by Marlins CF Cody Ross. St Louis sits 1/2 game back of Milwaukee in the NL Central and looks to Piniero to keep the winning ways going.
Should be a slugfest tonight at Jacobs Field in the first meeting in years between these two franchises.
Florida Marlins / Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8.5
Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.52) goes for his league leading 11th win of the season tonight as the Marlins visit Toronto in this interleague affair. Halladay is one of the hottest pitchers in the game, winning his last 7 decisions with a 2.03 ERA in that span.
Florida will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who pitched really well in his last start, allowing only 2 runs in 7 innings in what was his best start of 2009. Nolasco won 15 games last year, but was so bad early this year that the Marlins sent him down to Triple A New Orleans last month. He responded there and hopes to build off of last week’s effort.
Freddy Wills
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play Tampa Bay Rays -1½
Well we went 4-0 yesterday and we are on fire just check out our records page! Again we continue to be successful and I have given you 4 in a row on free plays yesterday we got a little bit of luck with the Cardinals coming back late to win! That makes up for all the free picks we got hosed on last week.
Today we have inter league play! The story in inter league play is over juiced lines favoring the AL. Anyway our free pick will come on the AL Rays, but not on the over juiced money line which has moved from -221 to -250 in most places. We'll be taking the run line here!
As I mentioned in my article on the run line the Nationals have lost 85% of their games on the road by more than 1 run. Basically when you think they are going to lose take their opponent on the run line it has paid off 85% of the time when they are on the road. Of course it has to fall into place where the home team wins games at home by more than 1 run and we get exactly that with the Rays. 77.8% of the Rays wins have been by more than one run at home this year!
Reasons why to back the Rays: Nationals are 13-45 their last 58 road games. Stammen is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 and the Rays I think are starting to get hot here 20 runs in their last 2 games all at home. They are a dominant team at home 18-12 this year and Garza who is winless in his last 3 despite throwing a 1.06 WHIP will be hungry! Expect a gem out of a pitcher who is pitching well but not getting wins. Everyone is a competitor they want the stats too. Nationals just .193 average last 5 scoring 2.57 runs/9. While the Rays .277avg 6.82 runs/9 last 5 vs. RHP. Also worth adding their bullpen has a 1.08 ERA last 5 which they may not even need!
Jack Jones
LA Dodgers/Texas Rangers UNDER 10
Both teams have excellent hitting numbers for the season, but both are also on tremendous cold streaks. Over their past 7 games, the Dodgers are hitting just .238 as a team and scoring a mere 2.4 runs per game. Similarly, the Rangers are hitting only .216 and scoring 3.1 runs per game over their past 7. This has resulted in unders in 5 of the last 7 Dodger games and 6 straight unders for the Rangers. 10 runs should be more than enough for us to come in under the total tonight.
IndianCowboy
Take the Atlanta Dream +4.5 @ Chicago Sky
The Dream come off a tough loss at Washington and this is a much improved team this year. They are 1-1 to start the year and very well could be 2-0 if Washington didn't shoot lights out in the second half. Heck, this team was drilling Washington and they let them get away. There is reason why this line is short at +4.5 as Atlanta could very well win this game outright. With Holdsclaw leading the charge this team has a go-to person and some depth that allows them to stay competitive for the whole contest. This is not so much a pick against Chicago, but more of one for Atlanta. Give me the points as the Dream have a 40% chance of winning this game outright in my book and taking the points with a team that could win outright is worth a shot imo.