Freddy Wills
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
Play Under 8½
Well the line is acting a little screwey with the Nationals opening up as dogs at +102 and 93% of the public is on the Blue Jays yet the line has gone the opposite way! Now I'm not about to back a Nationals team that can't hit a lick off LHP. .214avg on the season at home and .167avg 2.19 R/9 last 5 games. Nationals are likely fighting for Manny Acta's job as they took 2 of 3 from the Yankees. What this told me was Vegas is expecting a solid performance out of Jordan Zimmerman here today and abounce back performance from Brian Tallet.
Tallet came off 3.1IP 8ER against the Marlins. He'll likely have a bounce back here today in my opinion. Earlier in the year he had 4IP 10ER against KC and came back and pitched 7IP 3ER. Two games ago he pitched 6IP and gave up 5ER and came back with a 7IP 0ER performance so he's well capable of the bounce back start. He'll have a good chance of doing this against a Nationals club that has been struggling with the bats even against the Yankees at Yankee stadium they scored 3 games in each game.
Worth noting: Nationals are under 12-2 in their last 14 home games. The ball park is huge and this one will stay under as well.
Rob Homyak
5 Units on Texas Rangers
Play Against Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) after 4 or more consecutive home games, playing on Friday
89-39 over the last 5 seasons.
69.5% (39.5 units)
The Rangers are 15-9 on the season against left-handed starters. The Rangers are 16-5 in their last 21 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game so the team has been able to bounce back well. Texas is 8-2 in its last 10 Interleague games as a favorite while the Giants are 1-10 in their last 11 Interleague home games against teams with a winning record.
Texas is 15-8 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage of 51% to 54% over the last 2 seasons; 17-5 (+12.6 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season; 15-3 (+18.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons; 13-3 (+15.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Feldman is 5-1 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
SF is 7-22 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
GREG SHAKER
Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants
Play Under 8
Ranger Bats have cooled considerably of late even though they have played their last 9 games in Arlington, one of the best hitting venues in the league, perhaps the best. What they are doing right is getting better production from their Bullpen and in doing so, they have been somewhat competitive. Their starter tonight is a good one, and the biggest surprise in the American League. Feldmon is still chucking the ball to the plate in a big way, and his numbers on the road are just as good as they are at home. That should come to no surprise at all. He will be throwing at a Frisco squad that has picked up their hitting skills of late but arguably are still one of the poorer offensive squads in baseball. What SF does have is a very good pen and one that has performed even better over the last 10, allowing just just 1.5 runs per 9 innings during that stretch. There are tons of trends supporting this play but more importantly, the Big Unit is on his game, allowing just 7 Earned Runs over his last 5 outings. All but one of those games went UNDER this posted total and that game accumulated just 9 runs, in a game that Mr Johnson allowed 3 hits. This park is considered an UNDER Park and with the two starters on the hill tonight, the Pens performing nicely, we have a good shot at getting this one to stay well below what oddsmakers have posted.
John Martin
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -109
San Francisco’s Randy Johnson has been stellar at home all season, posting a 5-2 record with a 3.94 ERA in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He’s 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts and he’ll mow down this Rangers’ free-swinging lineup Friday. Johnson is 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rangers. The Giants are 18-6 as a favorite of -100 to -150 this season. San Francisco is now 21-12 at home in 2009, with their staff giving up just 3.6 runs/game. Cash in with San Francisco as the favorite.
Black Widow
1* on L.A. Angels -107
The Angels at nearly even money at home Friday is well worth a bet tonight. Joe Saunders has been their most consistent starter all year, going 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA. He has been spectacular at home, going 3-2 with a 2.74 ERA. The Angels have won 6 straight games now, scoring 6 or more runs in 5 of those 6 victories. This team is hitting the cover off the ball, and with Ace Joe Saunders going tonight there’s no reason not to back the Angels. The Angels are 9-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) this season. Saunders is 16-3 (+11.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Angels on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Milwaukee Brewers +102
Reasons why the Brewers win:
1.) Milwaukee is playing the better baseball right now, and they have the better starter on the mound in Braden Looper. Milwaukee has won 3 straight while the Tigers have lost 4 of their last 5. Looper owns a 4.62 ERA on the season with a 5-3 record while Armando Galarraga is 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA.
2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Any team (DETROIT) - with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts. This is a 78-29 ML System hitting 72.9% over the last 5 seasons. It’s easy to bet against Galarraga these days. Bet the Brewers on the road.
Scott Rickenbach
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Antonio Bastardo began his rookie campaign with two solid outings. Things then quickly went downhill as he struggled badly against the Red Sox in his most recent outing. However, that start deserves an asterisk! The weather was poor, and after a lengthy rain delay, Bastardo was unable to keep pitching. That means he's wound up and fired up for this outing and he's got solid stuff in his repertoire of pitches.
Also, while we expect Bastardo to give the Phillies a "strong and long" start here we also expect the Phils sticks to pound Rich Hill of the Orioles. Hill has been struggling with command and the Phillies sluggers, even without Raul Ibanez, certainly know what to do with "mistake pitches". Look for the Phillies to win this one in a home rout. Though they're a little pricier than I like to get involved with, consider a small play on Philadelphia on the money line on Friday. Thanks for checking in here, and although Thursday was a rough day with regular plays, don't miss Friday's TOP PLAY as those are on runs of 8-1 and 15-5 and will stay hot tonight!