SPORTS ADVISORS
San Francisco (39-32) at Milwaukee (38-34)
The top two teams in the National League wild-card chase begin a three-game weekend series at Miller Park, with the Giants’ Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) slated to oppose Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo (7-4, 3.00).
San Francisco took Thursday off after scoring back-to-back wins at Oakland to wrap up the interleague portion of its schedule. The Giants have won five of their last six games and are on additional positive runs of 9-4 against winning teams, 6-2 after an off day and 4-0 on Friday. However, they’re just 11-26 in their last 37 games against the N.L. Central.
The Brewers continued their slump with Thursday’s 6-4 home loss to the Twins, as they’ve now dropped five of their last six and 11 of their last 16, going 2-7 at Miller Park during this stretch. They’re also in ruts of 1-5 against the N.L. West and 2-8 versus right-handed starters, but on the bright side Milwaukee has won 17 of 25 against opponents with a winning record and 14 of 19 series openers.
Milwaukee swept the six-game season series from the Giants last year by a combined tally of 49-18. However, when they went to San Francisco to open the 2009 season, the Brewers dropped two of three, getting outscored 19-11. Still, Milwaukee has won 14 of the last 17 meetings at Miller Park.
The Giants have won nine consecutive games behind Cain, including four straight on the road. The veteran right-hander is 7-0 during this nine-game stretch, giving up one earned run or fewer in seven of those games. Cain yielded a single run in each of his last two starts – both at home – covering 17 innings, with San Francisco beating Oakland 7-1 and Texas 2-1.
Cain is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in six road starts this year and 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against the Brewers. That one victory over Milwaukee came in his season debut April 9, as he gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings, rolling to a 7-1 home triumph.
Gallardo was a tough-luck 3-2 loser at Detroit on Sunday, yielding all three runs on six hits while striking out eight in seven innings. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts and 12 of his 14 outings this season. With Gallardo on the hill, the Brewers are on upticks of 8-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 on Friday and 4-0 in series openers.
Since giving up seven runs in his first home start of the season – a 7-6 loss to the Reds – Gallardo is 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA in his last five at Miller Park, allowing a total of five earned runs in 31 1/3 innings. Also, he opened his 2009 season at San Francisco on April 8, giving up just two runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-2 victory, improving to 2-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts against the Giants.
The under is 5-2 in Cain’s last seven trips to the mound and 5-1 in his last six against winning teams. Also, Gallardo is on “under” rolls of 16-7 overall, 8-3-1 in series openers, 8-1 versus winning teams and 5-0 on Friday.
For San Francisco, the “under” is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-3-1 on the road, 8-2 on Friday, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 5-2 after a day off. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has topped the total in eight of its last 10 overall, but the under is 8-2-1 in its last 11 Friday contests and 6-1 in its last seven against the N.L. West. Conversely, the over is 21-7-2 in the last 30 Brewers-Giants battles overall and 10-2-2 in the last 14 clashes at Miller Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.Y. Yankees (40-32) at N.Y. Mets (37-34)
Five days after getting pulled from a start because of an arm problem, Yankees ace CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.71) returns to the mound as he opposes Mike Pelfrey (5-2, 4.74) as the final Subway Series of the season begins at Citi Field.
The Yankees are coming off consecutive blowout wins in Atlanta by scores of 8-4 on Wednesday and 11-7 on Friday. Still, the Bronx Bombers are just 6-9 in their last 15 games overall, including dropping six of nine on the highway. Their current 3-5 funk has all come against teams from the N.L. East, and they’re 2-7 in their last nine games on the road against right-handed starters. However, Joe Girardi’s team has won six of its last seven on Friday.
The Mets and Johan Santana held off the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter 3-2 on Thursday afternoon for their second straight win. Although they took three of four from St. Louis, like their rivals from the Bronx, the Mets have been lacking consistency, going 9-13 in June, including 5-5 at home and 2-4 in their last six interleague games (all against the A.L. East). On the bright side, Jerry Manuel’s squad is on hot streaks of 9-1 on Friday, 16-5 in series openers and 18-8 at home versus southpaw starters.
The Yankees took two of three from the Mets two weekends ago at Yankee Stadium, including a 15-0 series-ending whitewash on June 14. The Yanks are 4-2 in the last six head-to-head clashes.
Sabathia was pulled with one out in the bottom of the second inning Sunday at Florida because of a biceps injury, and he gave up one run on three hits with the Yankees eventually falling 6-5. Prior to Sunday, the hefty lefty had pitched at least seven innings in eight consecutive starts, but with the loss in Florida, the Yankees are now just 2-4 in their ace’s last six outings.
Sabathia is 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in eight road starts this season and 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA in eight nighttime contests. Also, in his only career start against the Mets back in 2004 when he was with Cleveland, Sabathia gave up just a run on six hits in eight innings, winning 9-1.
Pelfrey surrendered four runs on eight hits in five innings on Sunday, failing to get a decision in his team’s 10-6 home loss to Tampa Bay. Despite that subpar outing, the right-hander has still given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight outings. Also, with Pelfrey pitching, the Mets remain on positive runs of 13-6 at home, 5-2 on Friday, 4-1 in interleague action, 9-3 in series openers and 7-2 in night starts this year.
Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 3.95 ERA in seven home starts this year, and in his lone career meeting against the Yankees exactly a year ago, he earned a 15-6 road win despite giving up four runs, eight hits and four walks in five innings.
With Pelfrey on the hill, the “over” is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-1 in interleague play, 9-4-1 at home and 4-0-1 on Friday.
The Yankees are riding a bunch of “under” streaks, including 6-3 overall, 7-3-1 on the highway, 14-5 in interleague play, 13-5 against the N.L. East, 5-1 on Friday and 5-2 when Sabathia pitches on the road. Also, the under is 6-1 in the Mets’ last six at home, 7-2 in the Mets’ last nine against left-handed starters and 36-16-2 in their last 58 Friday contests. Finally, the last four Subway Series meetings at old Shea Stadium stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
DUNKEL
Detroit at Houston
The Astros open up the interleague series looking to build on their 6-2 record in Wandy Rodriguez' last 8 starts as a home underdog. Houston is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130).
Game 951-952: San Francisco at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.734; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.389
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.981; White Sox (Contreras) 15.853
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Over
Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.069; Cleveland (Sowers) 15.288
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.516; Toronto (Romero) 15.386
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under
Game 959-960: Washington at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 13.897; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.841
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-175); Over
Game 961-962: Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 13.749; Pittsburgh (Vazquez) 14.299
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Over
Game 963-964: NY Yankees at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.831; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.596
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Under
Game 965-966: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.813; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.404
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
Game 967-968: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 17.360; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.581
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+130); Under
Game 969-970: Detroit at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.789; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.607
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over
Game 971-972: San Diego at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Silva) 15.080; Texas (Millwood) 14.700
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-215); 10
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+195); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.472; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.745
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Over
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.446; Arizona (Buckner) 14.590
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Over
Game 977-978: Colorado at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 15.295; Oakland (Anderson) 15.414
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.470; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.687
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over
WNBA
Los Angeles at Seattle
The Storm look to take advantage of a Los Angeles team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games. Seattle is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10).
Game 651-652: Indiana at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.354; New York 113.757
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 135
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-1 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Detroit at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.432; Atlanta 111.925
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 163 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Over
Game 655-656: Sacramento at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 107.405; San Antonio 113.239
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 150 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6 1/2); Over
Game 657-658: Los Angeles at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 109.690; Seattle 120.691
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 11; 149 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 10; 141
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Over
Ron Raymond
CLE / CIN Under 9.5
When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team - Playing on Friday - During the month of June - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Allowed 5 runs or less AGAINST in their last game - Coming off a 2 run win - Coming off a night game; The UNDER is 17-4-1 for the Road Team (CIN) since 1997.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cincinnati w/Harang vs. Sowers
The Reds open a three game series with the Indians in Cleveland when they send Aaron Harang to the hill against Jeremy Sowers. Harang enters tonight contest knowing he is 6-3 with a 3.02 ERA in his career against the Tribe. On the flip side, Sowers is 1-3 with an 8.55 ERA in his career team starts against Cincinnati. With Sowers 1-6 in his seven team starts this season, look for Harang and the Reds to hang one on the Indians.
Terron Chapman
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Under 9
The Cubs and White Sox will hook up once again this weekend, this time on the Southside of Chicago when the two begin a three-game set at US Cellular Field. The two split a shortened two game series just over a week ago. Randy Wells will toe the slab for the visiting Cubs opposed by Jose Contreras of the White Sox. Both pitchers enter this contest pitching well and could present some problems for the opposing offenses. Wells is coming off of his first Major League win, getting the decision in a 6-2 win against the Indians. He had allowed three runs or less in six of his seven starts before that outing against Cleveland but was a victim of an anemic Cubs offense. Not much has changed as the Cubbies are still struggling at the plate, hitting just .237 away from Wrigley. After a five start stint with Triple-A Charlotte, Jose Contreras has returned to give the White Sox three consecutive quality starts. Since rejoining the rotation, Contreras has allowed 12 hits and three runs over 22 innings, striking out 13 and walking three. The White Sox enter this meeting with plenty of momentum after taking two of three from the visiting Dodgers. They had seven home runs in those two wins against Los Angeles, but will find it hard to go deep off of Wells who has allowed just two home runs in 49 innings pitched this season. These two starting pitchers should make it hard for these two offenses to exceed expectations. Play Under the total for 1.5 units.
Vernon Croy
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians are the better overall team at home Friday night where they are 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing record on the road and they are also 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing overall record. The Reds are hitting just .227 as a team on the road this season and they are just 1-7 in Aaron Harang's (5-7, 3.66) last 8 starts as an underdog on the road. The Reds are also just 5-16 in Harang's last 21 road starts and just 1-6 in Harang's last 7 starts after the Reds score 5 or more runs in their previous game. The Reds are just 1-6 in their last 7 road games as an underdog and they are just 2-7 in their last 9 games after a win. The Indians are 14-4 in their last 18 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and Harang has struggled in his last 4 road starts allowing 18 earned runs overall not including his start against a bad Nationals team. Take the Cleveland Indians as Friday's Free MLB Pick.
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Yankees
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the NYY as the square off against the Mets. Supporting this graded play is a series of strong angles noting that Mets starter Pelfry is just 3-10 (-9.0 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 6-13 (-13.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. Last year Pelfry was hammered by the Yankees and he can't be all that positive right now having to face them and coming off BB mediocre starts. I also like the run-line for this game as well as the AiS shows an 85% probability that the Yankees will win this game by 2 or more runs. Sabathia is well rested and he will be the difference in this game.
Cajun Sports
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Cleveland for an interleague weekend series against the Indians. They will face an Indians team that is 5-15 W/L (-11.8) against NL Central opponents and 10-22 W/L (-15.8) in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is also 19-36 (-31.1) versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game on the season since 1997 and 9-20 W/L (-21.2) versus an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. The Indians will send Jeremy Sowers to the bump with his 1-6 W/L record and ERA of 6.82 overall which includes a record of 0-2 W/L and ERA of 5.21 when taking the mound at home. The Reds will send Aaron Harang to the hill with his record of 7-8 W/L overall with an ERA of 3.66 which includes a record of 0-1 W/L his last three starts with an ERA of 1.62 although the Reds are 2-1 W/L in those starts. We will back the Reds here as they capture game one of this interleague series in Cleveland.
Graded Selection: 2* Cincinnati Reds 6 Cleveland Indians 3
Craig Trapp
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Detroit Tigers
Betting Trends
-Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
-Tigers are 7-2 in Verlanders last 9 interleague starts.
-Astros are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague home games.
-Astros are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
This one is not a hard one to figue out. DET is super hot winning 7 in a row and finally starting to hit consistently. Pitching has been great also and today's starter Verlander is awesome his last 4 starts he is 2-1 and only allowed 8 runs over 28 innings. Look for Verlander to hold HOU to under 4 runs. Going for HOU is Rodriguez who has had no success in his last 6 starts going 1-4 with over a 5.00 ERA. Not good since he will be facing one of the hottest lineups the last few weeks in DET. This one will be easy as DET pulls away early and Verlander dominates. SCORE DET 7 - HOU 2
Alex Smart
Philadelphia Phillies -127
The Phillies are off a disappointing loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last night by a 10-4 count and will be in a bounce back situation this evening vs a inconsistent Toronto Blue Jays team. I know the Phillies are slumping losing 8 of their L/9 , but with Cole Hamels (4-3.4.24 ERA) their southpaw starting pitcher this evening getting into top form Im betting on some positive results from the defending World Series champs. The Phillies southpaw starting pitcher is coming off one of his best starts of the season, recording a double-digit strikeout mark , while allowing just two runs in eight innings of quality work. Note: The Phillies are 4-0 in Hamels last 4 road starts . The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their L/10 at home vs a LH starter.Play on the Phillies
Red Dog Sports
Detroit at Houston
Play Detroit
Justin Verlander has given up 2,5,1,0,3,1 and 2 in his last 7 starts. The team is 10-5 in his starts and the Tigers are 51-21 in their last 72 Interleague games. The Astros are only 3-8 in their last 11 Interleague games. Look for the Tigers to win a close one.
Jorge Gonzalez
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play Giants Money Line: 134
The San Francisco Giants (39-32) will be sending one of the hottest pitchers in the league to the mound when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers (38-33). Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) will take on face off against Yovani Gallardo ( 7-4, 3.00). The Giants have one of the surprises this season. The Giants were predicted by many to finish last in the National League West Division. The Giants have won the last nine straight games the Cain has started. San Francisco has won five of their last six games and will be taking on a Brewer team that has struggled winning just once in their last seven games a home favorite. Both pitchers are budding stars that could easily pitch their team to a victory. Take the Giants here with the value of being the underdog despite playing better baseball as of late.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Milwaukee over San Francisco
Always difficult going against right hander Cain as the visiting Giants are a perfect 9-0 in his last nine mound outings. However, like the Brewers who own this series winning 7 of the last 9, and 14 of 17 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee countering with a 4-0 mark at home with Gallardo and 12-3 overall at home versus a winning club.
Sports Gambling Hotline
San Francisco at MILWAUKEE
Thursday comp play winner on the Yankees, now 14-8 the last 22 days for free.
Friday night we like Matt Cain, and Yovani Gallardo to match pitches well into the Wisconsin night, as we play the Giants, and Brewers UNDER the posted total.
Cain comes into this start off 17 innings of 2 run ball, as he has lowered his season ERA to a microscopic 2.28. His counterpart Yovani Gallardo hasn't been as untouchable, but his ERA is an even 3.00 for the season, which isn't too shabby.
Cain's April start against Milwaukee saw just 1 run cross in 7 innings of work, while Gallardo's April start against San Francisco saw just 2 runs score in 7 innings.
The Giants have played UNDER the total in 4 of their last 5 ball games, and we like them to stay LOW tonight, as this game has the makings of a classic midsummer pitching duel.
Play the UNDER.
3♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco +135 at MILWAUKEE
Friday's FREE winner comes from Milwaukee today as we go with the Giants on the road against the Brewers.
We just love this opportunity tonight to get one of the best pitchers in baseball this season in Matt Cain and get plus-money to boot.
San Francisco's best hurler, Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) is on the mound and he is coming off a great home start against the Rangers, allowing one run on three hits while striking out eight in eight innings. Cain was on a six-game winning streak before the no-decision on Saturday, and he hasn't lost in nine outings.
Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo (7-4, 3.00) will start at home in this one. He gave up three runs on six hits agaisnt Detroit on Sunday and they lost 3-2 to the Tigers. He's got a 5.63 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco.
I know the Giants have had their struggles in Milwaukee, losing 12 of the last 14, but let's look at facts and see that tonight, the Giants have the better hurler on the hill. And Milwaukee has dropped five of their last six overall and 11 of 16, going 2-7 at Miller Park in their place.
San Francisco has won five of six games and is on runs of 9-4 against winning teams, 6-2 after an off-day and 4-0 on Fridays. We love the Giants and Cain in this one.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO