Chris Jordan
Cincinnati +100 at CLEVELAND
Love the road team in this Buckeye State battle, as we bank on Aaron Harang to get it done and avenge a 4-1 loss to the White Sox his last time out.
The right-hander, who is 3-1 with a 2.24 ERA in eight starts against the Indians in his career, has pitched well enough to win for the most part, but has been on the tough end of several losses and no-decisions.
He's allowed just three earned runs over 17 innings his last three times out, and that includes an eight-inning performance the last time he pitched on the road - at Washington, where he didn't allow one earned run.
He'll do much better for us than Jeremy Sowers, who lasted just 4-1/3 innings in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits with four walks in a 6-2 loss against the Cubs last Sunday.
The loss extended his losing streak to three games, and it doesn't get any easier in having to face the Reds. He is 0-2 with an 8.55 ERA in four career starts against them. On top of that, in two Interleague starts this season, the southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.68 ERA.
Take the Reds with Harang and Sowers listed.
1♦ REDS
Karl Garrett
Boston at ATLANTA
G-Man brings a 7-3 comp play run the last 10 days into Friday's action.
Coming strong on Friday night with a totals release on Boston and Atlanta OVER the total.
Yeah, I know that Josh Beckett just shut out Atlanta last week in Beantown, but with the weather being a tad on the humid side in Atlanta these days, I have to believe we are going to see the bats take control of this game tonight.
Boston comes to town having played OVER the posted price in their last 4 games, while the Braves sailed OVER in their last pair at home against the Yankees.
Beckett has a road ERA of 4.67 this year, and the G-Man just gets the feeling the hot and muggy night at Turner Field is going to produce another high-scoring contest.
Take the Red Sox-Braves OVER the posted total.
4♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Detroit -130 at HOUSTON
Tough free-play loser with the Cubs yesterday. We’ll get back on track Friday by backing the team that beat the Cubs on Wednesday, the red-hot Tigers.
It’s difficult to pass up Justin Verlander at this cheap price. I backed Verlander at a similar number at home Sunday against Milwaukee, and he came through with a 3-2 victory, allowing both runs (solo homers) in 7 2/3 innings as he bounced back from a terrible start in St. Louis. That five-run, four-inning clunker against the Cardinals was Verlander’s only non-quality start in his last 11 trips to the mound.
In those 10 quality starts, Verlander has given up a total of 10 runs in 73 innings, good for a 1.23 ERA, and he notched 89 strikeouts against just 19 walks in those 73 innings.
Now, it’s true that Verlander’s counterpart tonight – Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez – is a solid pitcher, too. He proved that at Minnesota on Sunday when he gave up a run on two hits in seven innings, winning 4-1. However, despite that result, the Astros are just 2-4 in Wandy’s last six starts, and the lefty has allowed 26 runs (20 earned) over 31 2/3 innings (5.68 ERA).
The point: Rodriguez better bring his A-game tonight, because the Tigers are mashing the baseball right now. They scored 16 runs in a three-game sweep of the Cubs and have tallied 44 runs during their seven-game winning streak.
Throw in the fact that Detroit continues to dominate interleague play – 52-21 last 73 against the National League, including 46-11 as a favorite – while Houston has dropped eight of its last 12 to A.L. clubs and five of six interleague home games (including two of three to the Royals this week), and I’ll lay this reasonable price with Verlander and the streaking Tigers.
3♦ DETROIT
Dominic Fazzini
Detroit -125 at HOUSTON
I gave you a complimentary winner for the fourth time in five days with the Yankees outslugging the Braves 11-7 on Thursday. We'll it keep it rolling into the weekend with another interleague matchup.
Wandy Rodriguez is tough to beat when he takes the mound in Houston.
The Astros left-hander is 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA in seven starts at Minute Maid Park, compared to 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA in eight starts on the road.
Rodriguez (6-6, 3.18) was sharp in his last start Sunday, allowing one run on two hits in seven innings at Minnesota, but he has been inconsistent in four June starts, however, at 1-2 with a 5.87 ERA. Normally, that wouldn’t be enough for me to go against Rodriguez in Houston, but he faces one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Tigers.
Detroit just completed a 6-0 homestand and has won seven straight overall. And it sends a potential All-Star to the mound today in Justin Verlander (8-3, 3.31).
The Tigers right-hander has faced Houston once in his career, in Detroit on June 28, 2006, and he pitched eight scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. Verlander, the American League strikeout leader with 118, has pitched better at home this year than on the road, but he has been solid just about everywhere he has taken the mound, with 10 quality starts in his last 11 outings.
Rodriguez has faced the Tigers just once in his career, and he got hammered, allowing seven runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings in an 8-5 loss at Detroit on June 26, 2006. I’m thinking he comes up short again. Go with the Tigers.
2♦ DETROIT
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK YANKEES / NEW YORK METS
Take NEW YORK METS
C.C. Sabathia pitched into the second inning his last start before experiencing tightness in his throwing bicep. Not a good sign! Especially for a big name ace who is going to be favored a lot. He says he's fine, but all pitchers do. It's unknown what CC will be able to bring to the hill this game and he faces a Mets team that is tops in the NL in batting average and steals and second in OBP. Starter Mike Pelfrey is decent (5-2) and unbeaten at home. He has a 3.95 ERA at home and offers great value. Play the Mets.
DAVE COKIN
FLORIDA MARLINS / TAMPA BAY RAYS
Take FLORIDA MARLINS
The streaking Marlins try for their sixth straight win tonight as they open their weekend rivalry series with the Rays. Tampa is coming on strong, as they continue to score loads of runs and they're getting strong pitching from James Shields. But Josh Johnson has been money all season long for the Marlins and here's an opportunity to back Johnson at dog money. Tough game for sure, but at the price, I think the Marlins are worth a shot.
Jr Tips
LA ANGELS vs. ARIZONA
The Los Angeles Angels (38-32) have won nine of 12 heading into Arizona, with their two latest victories coming over red-hot Colorado Rockies.Vladimir Guerrero ended a 28-game home run drought with a two-run shot and added an RBI double, lifting the Angels' interleague record to 11-4. Los Angeles is 9-1 this season when Guerrero drives in a run.The Angels were 9-4 when Jered Weaver (7-3, 2.53 ERA) had started coming into his latest outing before a rare poor performance Saturday against the Dodgers and facing his older brother Jeff. Weaver hasn't faced Arizona (30-43), but should bounce back agaist the Arizona Diamondbacks who haven't won a series at home in their last seven, losing six and tying one. To combat their troubles winning, Arizona will have to start the struggling Billy Buckner (2-4, 7.15) who is 0-3 with a 9.72 ERA over his last three starts. The hot LA Angel bats should have no problem getting to Buckner. Jered Weaver was overly anxious in his last game facing his brother but he is giving up less than 3 runs a game,threw 3 complete games already this year and will bounce back tonight and get the job done.
TAKE LA ANGELS-160
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Diamondbacks are 3-24 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started and the Angels are 10-0 since when Jered Weaver starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start. Consider the Halos.
Tommy Gill
Brewers -145 for 2 units
The Brewers are terrible at interleague play every season and they are probably really happy to be getting the Giants in town. The Giants are 5 games under .500 away from home this season and have struggled against the Brewers in the past. The Brewers have won 7 out of there last 9 games against the Giants and are 14-3 in there last 17 games in Milwaukee. The pitching matchup in this game is even with two outstanding pitchers on the mound in Matt Cain (9-1 2.28 ERA) vs. Gallarardo (7-4 3.00 ERA). On the road this season the Giants are only averaging 3.43 runs per game while the Brewers are averaging 4.29 runs a game at home so I see some value today in the better team at home in getting the much need win to stay in the hunt for there division.
Freddy Wills
LAA Angels vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: LAA Angels -1.5
We come off a 2 game skid on the free picks after winning 6 in a row. We will come back Friday night with a game we love! Diamondbacks were busy last night in extra inning game with the Rangers that they lost in 13innings. Angels on the other hand travel to Arizona to face the struggling Diamondbacks who are 15-25 at home and are losing 76% of those games by more than 1 run. I like this situation tonight as they have never faced Jered Weaver and they are hitting just .231 vs. RHP in their last 5 games while the Angels have been playing solid ball hitting .246 and scoring 5.4 runs per 9. Angels will face Billy Buckner. Refer to our Hot & Cold Pitchers articles for more info on him... It just does not look good! Angels are 9-2 in their last 11 inter league games vs. RHP while the Dbacks are 3-13 in their last 16 as a dog +110-150. Take Angels -1.5 @ +110 2dimes
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -122
The Tigers are rolling, having won 7 straight, and I'll back them tonight with their ace Verlander on the hill against one of the weaker lineups in the N.L. The Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and an impressive 46-11 in their last 57 interleague games as a favorite. The Astros send lefty Wandy Rodriguez to the hill. He's been good at home this season, but I expect him to struggle tonight against one of the most successful hitting teams in the league against lefty starters. The Tigers are 15-6 against southpaw starters this season, including 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers are 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and I'll ride him in this price range again tonight.
Bob Harvey
Red Sox vs Braves
Despite two solid arms on the mound in Josh Beckett and Jair Jurrjens, the Red Sox and Braves have the bats necessary to send tonight's contest in Atlanta over the total.
Josh Beckett has been dominant and then some against the Atlanta Braves. The Texas fireballer blanked the Braves last Saturday going the distance on a five-hitter and needed just 94 pitches to get the job done.
He’s now 5-0 lifetime against the Bravos with a miniscule 0.45 ERA. Will he be even better tonight against Atlanta? Short of a no-hitter, probably not. But Beckett with just average “stuff” figures to be more than Atlanta can handle. Beckett hasn’t just dominated against the Braves either. He’s 8-3 on the year and is on a nice 6-0 run (one no-decision) and has an ERA of less than 1.50.
On the flip side, Jair Jurrjens, the clutch Dutch, is the best .500 pitcher in baseball. He’s just 5-5 but his ERA is a paltry 2.89.
However even with all the glossy pitching stats I’ve presented there’s the little issue of offense. The Red Sox have played four straight games to the high side while the Braves have a mini 2-0 Over streak.
Atlanta has seen Beckett’s best and they should fare much better tonight. The Red Sox are coming off a 9-3 loss to the lowly Nats on Thursday and should rebound with the bats tonight, especially in hitter-friendly Turner Field. Two of the three series matchups last weekend topped the total and I see another one tonight.
Boston ranks third in the majors in RPG and OPS. The Red Sox are fifth in HR’s and 8th in BA. Those numbers are a good indicator that a team as offensively potent as the Sox, aren’t likely to be shutdown for two days in a row.
Pick: Red Sox/Braves Over 8
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Los Angeles Angels are 11-4 in interleague play this year and tonight face the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert. Arizona is just 15-25 at home this season and are 9-18 at home against right-handed pitchers this season. Arizona starter Billy Buckner has an 0-3 TSR at home this season with an ERA of 10.91. The Angels are 18-9 on the road in the month of June over the past two seasons. Go with the Angels in this one.
Play on: LA Angels
LT Profits
Florida Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball, while James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has always pitched well at home, so do not expect much scoring at The Trop tonight.
Johnson is 7-1 with an excellent 2.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 105 innings, and just like many other pitchers that have undergone the procedure, he actually looks stronger and has more velocity after his Tommy John surgery. You will be hard pressed to find a more consistent starter than Johnson, as he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 15 starts this season and he is among the leaders in the Major Leagues with his 13 Quality Starts.
Shields has pitched well at home ever since he became a fixture in the Rays rotation, and this year is no exception. He is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA here, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven home starts, and he allowed only four runs on the lone non-quality outing. He is also in great current form, with four Quality Starts in his last five outings after allowing just one run on three hits in seven innings vs. the New York Mets on Saturday.
Finally, the Under is 10-4 in all Shields starts this year, and given the quality of his mound opponent tonight, we look for that trend to continue.
Pick: Marlins/Rays Under 8
Dave Price
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -116
The reigning World Series champs have been at their best on the road this season with an impressive 24-11 road mark. I'll back them tonight at a nice price behind southpaw ace Cole Hamels. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 20-6 in their last 26 games as a road favorite, and 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 road starts. The Blue Jays are just 3-7 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. I like Hamels' to get the Phillies back in the win column tonight.