Nick Parsons
Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 1/2
One night after the lowly Nationals ended their own three-game losing streak, the Orioles will try to do the same at Washington’s expense in Friday’s opener of the latest Beltway Series.Baltimore (32-40) had won five straight and seven of eight against the class of the NL East, opening its six-game road trip with a three-game sweep of defending World Series champion Philadelphia.But the Florida Marlins sent the Orioles to an 11-3 loss Thursday to finish a sweep. Baltimore’s team ERA swelled to 5.06, which ranks 28th in the majors, after giving up 23 runs in the series; that being said, I look for Brad Bergesen to have a big game throwing tonight; Baltimore rookie Brad Bergesen (4-2, 3.94) has been effective lately. Bergesen’s run of four straight quality starts ended Saturday when he allowed four runs in 6 1-3 innings at Philadelphia, but the right-hander still has a 2.35 ERA in his last five starts and has not lost since May 19. Ross Detwiler, another first-year player in Washington’s rookie-laden rotation, (0-3, 4.76 ERA) is still looking for his first major league win, but he held Toronto to two runs in seven-plus innings of the Nationals’ 5-3, 12-inning win Saturday. Baltimore has seen the total go under the posted number in 15 of 20 games in June and I expect this strong trend to continue; play on the UNDER!
IndianCowboy
Take NY Yankees @ NY Mets Under 9
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers
Play: San Diego Padres
This is a great value play on the Padres. Texas won two of its final three games in Arizona but both were one-run victories and it has been a rough stretch for the Rangers. Since May 31st, Texas is only 9-13 and tonight on its return home finds itself more than a 2-1 underdog. To put that into perspective, the Rangers have not been a 2-1 favorite this season and have not been a 2-1 favorite since 2006 when they went 0-2 in that situation. The Padres come into town in the midst of a bad run of their own but they have not been a 2-1 underdog at all this season. These heavy favorite lines should be set on the elite teams and the Rangers are far from that at this point in the season. Making this line so high is the fact that Kevin Millwood takes the hill for the Rangers and he is having a great season. In 15 starts, he has a 2.62 ERA including a 2.08 ERA in eight home starts. Those ERA’s are very solid but his WHIP both overall and at home is 1.22 and while good, it is not in line with those ERA’s. He is allowing a good number of baserunners but has been fortunate to get out of jams. Texas is just 8-7 in those 15 games. The Padres counter with Walter Silva who is off to a slow start but does have two decent outings in his three starts on the season. He went on the disabled list after his April 13th start against Mets and returned last Saturday against Oakland by allowing three runs in 5.1 innings so it was very close to a quality outing. We look for him to carry some of that over into this one and give San Diego a very good chance to cash a large ticket. 3* San Diego Padres
Rocketman Sports
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is 72-58 +29 units the past 3 years when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Pittsburgh is 1-9 this year when playing on Friday. Kansas City bullpen has a 3.78 ERA on the road this year. Gil Meche is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA on the road this year and he is 2-1 his last 3 starts. Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Royals are 4-1 in Meches last 5 interleague starts. Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of +110 to +150. Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Royals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!
LARRY NESS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are barely hanging on to first place in the NL East, having lost 10 of 12 games but NINE of those 10 losses have come at home. The Phiilies still own MLB's best road record, going 24-11 while averaging 5.93 RPG. The Phillies scored four times in the top of the first inning last night at Tampa but then never scored again, losing 10-4. They move on to Toronto this weekend, wrapping up the IL season with three-game set with the Blue Jays. The Jays are 40-34 overall on the season, including 23-14 at home. The pitching matchup features two lefties, Cole Hamels (last year's MVP in both the NLCS and World Series) and rookie Ricky Romero. Hamels was brutal in his first two starts this year (9.2 IP / 19 hits / 12 ERs / 11.17 ERA) but has allowed three ERs or less in NINE of his last 11 starts (team is 7-4). Hamels struck out a season-high 10 and didn't walk a single batter over eight innings in his last outing (last Sunday vs Baltimore) but the Phillies still lost, 2-1. Philadelphia has now lost Hamels' last two starts after winning his previous five. However, Hamels' early season woes seem to be behind him. Romero has looked good for the Jays in nine starts this year, going 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA (team is 5-4). The lefty vs lefty matchup favors the Phillies who were 32-22 (5.4 RPG) vs left-handers last year and have opened 16-10 (5.6 RPG) vs them in '09. In contrast the Jays were only 21-24 vs left-handers last season and are just 12-11 against them this year. I'm taking Hamels over the rookie in this one. Take Philly.
GINA
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
The roaring Tigers have won seven straight games and the last five versus the Astros, but they haven't met since 2006. Detroit will send Justin Verlander (8-3, 3.31 ERA) to the hill. The right-hander has pitched terrific and is 8-1 in his last 12 starts. The Tigers have won seven of Verlander's last 9 interleague starts. Go with the hot Tigers tonight against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Houston has dropped their last five interleague games at home and will counter with Wandy Rodriguez (6-6, 3.18). The lefthander is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA in his last three starts.
Detroit Tigers -120
Mr A's
St. Louis Cardinals -155
Los Angeles Angels -160
MLB Computer Picks
Milwaukee Brewers -150
St. Louis Cardinals -155
Colorado Rockies +125
Wunderdog
Sacramento at San Antonio
Pick: Sacramento +6
The San Antonio Silver Stars were 24-10 a year ago, the best in the WNBA. This team can't be mistaken for that one. They maintain their top two players in Hammon and Young, but gone are Wauters, Buescher and Johnson. That trio combined for 29 ppg, 16 rpg,and over 200 assists. It has not been easy for them to make up those kind of losses and the Silver Stars are a big favorite off of what they did a year ago, not by the 2-3 team they put on the floor tonight. The Monarchs have not had a great deal of success this season, but they will be coming here with the memory of getting knocked out of the playoffs two straight years by the Silver Stars and that mindset sometimes determines outcome, especially with a Silver Spurs team lacking the same ability as the team from a year ago. Payback time for the Monarchs and I will go with them here.
GREG SHAKER
San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers
Play: Rangers -1.5
What can you say about Kevin Millwood's performance this year that has not already been said. He has certainly come of age here late in his career and his numbers are somewhat staggering, considering the fact that he throws half of his games here in Arlington. The fact is, he has been at his best right here at home and commands an ERA of 2.08 in 8 games thrown here. That is quite amazing indeed. He mirrors his team as well as the Rangers have a solid money propostion here this year. That is not strange to this club which is contructed with players that love the ballpark in which they play. Texas is thrilled to be back home after not fairing so well in their last roadtrip, but salvaged two wins at AZ to close the trip out. Josh Hamilton's absense has hurt Texas a bit but they still have plenty of firepower in their lineup. The Texas Pen is also thowing much better of late. The Padres do not have much firepower as they continue to be a low scoring team and one that is simply not geared for this type of ballpark. They have not been striking righties well at all and over the last 10 played, have just a .216 batting average. Over that span, they have managed but 3.4 RPG and that is not going to win many games. And, they have not. This Padre Team has always been known for their Bullpen but this year has been an adventure. That adventure has worsened recently and with Peavy and Young on the DL, they have not had the luxury of resting every now and then. The Seattle series has them depleted and that is not what you want when playing at this park. The Padres remain one of the worst road squads in the Big's and are just 10-25 this year. I am not sure what Silva is capable of tonight, but I do know that he has put 9 people on base via the walk in just 15 innings. Oops! I do not lay 1.5 very often, but I will for this one and I feel good to do so.
Dave Malinsky
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
We do not believe that the markets are right in this one, and with a significant move this morning dropping the price down into the mid 130’s we are going to get in play. When we can take the much better starting pitcher, better offense, better defense and fresher bullpen, we gladly accept discounts.
Jered Weaver has been one of the best pitchers in the game this season with a 7-3/2.44 that is an accurate portrayal of his stuff, and he has done it vs. legitimate competition – of the 119 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings his difficulty of batters faced is #17. His unorthodox delivery makes him even tougher on teams that have not faced him before, and there is not a single Diamondback in tonight’s lineup that has seen a pitch from him, with that already struggling lineup weakened further by the loss of Eric Byrnes. Meanwhile having Thursday off brings the entire Angel bullpen rested and ready.
While the good numbers of Weaver tell a true tale, so does the 7.15 allowance from Billy Buckner. He does not show the stuff to be a Major League starter, and the more teams see him through scouting reports the worse it gets – it has been a dismal 0-3/9.72 over his last three outings, a span in which he has been tagged for 27 hits, including five home runs, over 16.2 innings, and that gets even worse when you note that the offenses involved were the punchless Mariners, Giants and Astros. He does not bring any confidence from this mound, with an 0-3/11.90 that includes 32 hits and seven home runs in just 19.2 frames, and his inability to eat innings does not help a bullpen that got stretched out badly vs. Texas yesterday. With closer Chad Qualls also wobbling at a 5.87 clip in June, even a late lead by the home team is anything but assured to be finished.
The Spread
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, 4:05PM ET
Chi Cubs are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 11 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Pick: CHI White Sox
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians, 7:05PM ET
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:05PM ET
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Pick: Kansas City
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 10.5
To an extent, we understand the line move here from 10 to a 10.5 but, on the other hand, we also feel it’s giving under plays some great value here. San Diego was at Seattle yesterday afternoon wrapping up a three game set with the Mariners. That game did not finish until after 7 PM Texas time and it’s a long plane ride from Seattle down to the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex in Texas. As for the Rangers, their travel situation was even worse. They played a late night game last night that went 12 innings and was played at Arizona. That game did not wrap until about 1 AM Texas time this morning. The Rangers then grabbed a plane ride home and begin another game just 19 hours later after completing the prior one in another city. Not only that but the heat is absolutely oppressive in the Arlington area today with high temperatures expected to top out around 105 degrees.
Considering the travel situation, the short rest it created, and the hot summer weather of Texas, we just do not expect to see a lot of positive energy from either lineup in this one. Additionally, Kevin Millwood has been fantastic this season and he’s in much better shape this season than he has been in recent seasons. In other words, he can take the heat and he proved that in his last home start which was in hot weather on June 16th. While Walter Silva of the Padres is just a rookie hurler with subpar numbers so far this season. He does have the edge of the Rangers having never seen him and he’s only getting hit at a .259 clip so far in his first three outings at the MLB level. Silva also is supported by a Padres bullpen that has a respectable 4.14 ERA on the season. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Texas on Friday night.
Lenny Del Genio
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Let's take a look at the lone non-Interleague game on the card. The Giants have won 11 of Matt Cain?s 14 starts this season, but the team averages only 3.4 runs per game away from home, so we're not sold. Although his record is not nearly as good, Milwaukee starter Gallardo has a very similar ERA (3.00) as he has allowed more than three earned runs in an outing just twice all season and one of those was all the way back on 4.13. He can pitch with confidence tonight knowing that San Fran has dropped seven of nine here at Miller Park. Take Milwaukee.
Ben Burns
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Under
Hamels took a tough 2-1 loss versus Baltimore in his last start but this was the eighth time in his last 11 starts that he allowed two earned runs or less. The 'under' was 6-4-1 in those games. Note that Hamels has been better at night than he has in day games throughout his career. Under the lights, Hamels is 32-16 with a 3.13 ERA and a .225 BAA.
Ricky Romero of the Blue Jays was matched up with Hamels on June 16th and the southpaw allowed just three earned runs and six hits while striking out nine in seven innings of work. The only reason this same match-up finished above the total was because the Blue Jays tied the game at three in the top of the ninth and then got five runs in the top of the tenth, a very tough loss for 'under' players.
This is Romero's rookie campaign but he's already produced six quality starts in his first nine outings. Romero is gaining valuable experience with each start while Hamels, after dealing with injury issues early this season, is back in top form again.
This total is currently sitting at a nine. Note that when the Blue Jays are playing a game with a total of 9 to 9.5, excluding games which fell right on the number, they are 88-61 to the 'under' the last few seasons. That includes a 46-32 mark at home. Consider the UNDER 9
Mike Rose
Chicago Cubs -115
Randy Wells finally picked up a win his last time out against the Cleveland Indians. It took him seven starts to do so, but its by no means been his fault. Hes unfortunately been the guy the Cubs offense cant score for, and the bullpen has surrendered a number of leads late after he departed. On the year, the Cubs have scored an average of 3.75 runs per game while 3.75 runs per game have been scored in his eight overall outings. No wonder hes just 1-3 even though he sports a stellar 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Hes been outstanding on the road boasting a 2.10 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, and hes allowed just six earned runs and 14 hits with a K/BB ratio of 15/2 through 20.2 innings of his L/3 starts as a visitor.
Since returning from the DL, Jose Contreras has looked like a completely different pitcher than the one that got torched in his first six starts. In his L/3 outings, Contreras is 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.68 WHIP allowing just 12 hits and three ERs with a K/BB ratio of 13/3. He did get roughed up his last time out against Cincinnati where he surrendered nine hits, but he still only allowed the Reds to plate three runs. The six inning effort at the GAB was the first time he failed to go less than eight innings since returning from his Triple-A stint. Contreras has opposed the Cubs six times in his career and holds a 2-3 record with a 6.08 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
This just makes no sense! How in the world are the Cubs favored in this game? The line reeks like you know what, so theres only one thing to do. When something looks too good to be true, it usually is. The square side here today is the White Sox who are dogged at home against the struggling Cubs after just handling the best team in baseball. Back Wells and the visitors who would love nothing more than to turn their misfortune around with a big series win against their hated city rivals!