Golden Twinkies
By Kevin Rogers
The AL Central has turned into a three-team race between the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins. With just 19 of their final 70 games against Detroit and Chicago, Minnesota will try to claim its first division title since 2006. Amazingly, the Twins have a much better chance of making the postseason than the team that has their former ace, Johan Santana, as the Mets sit below .500.
Minnesota's team is obviously anchored by All-Stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer, who sits second in the AL in batting average at .358, is considered one of the front-runners for MVP. Morneau, who won the MVP in 2006, is second in the AL in RBI's, going for his fourth straight season with at least 110 runs batted in.
Ron Gardenhire's pitching staff has three of its hurlers with at least eight wins. Kevin Slowey is the team leader in victories (10), while dominating at home, owning an 8-0 record at the Metrodome. The Twins are beating their opponents by over two runs a game in Slowey's ten home starts, despite an ERA of 4.78. Another good role to back Slowey in is at night, as Minnesota is 9-3 in the righty's 12 starts after the sun goes down. The run support drops drastically for Slowey on the road, as the 'under' is 5-1 in his six road starts.
Nick Blackburn leads all Twins starting pitchers in ERA at 3.14, while owning an 8-4 record. Following Monday's start at Oakland, Blackburn should be paid attention to when pitching during the day, as the Twins are 8-1 to the 'under' in his nine day starts. Blackburn's next start will come Saturday at the Angels, a 4:10 PM EST first pitch.
Following a shaky start to the season, Scott Baker has won four of his last five starts to improve to 8-7. The former Oklahoma State righty is due to pitch Thursday night against Jered Weaver and the Angels, but will pitch again at home when the White Sox visit Minneapolis. That's important since the 'over' has hit in eight of Baker's ten home starts.
Francisco Liriano used to be money in the bank at home, but the lefty has struggled at the Homerdome. Liriano is 1-5 in eight starts at home this season, with an ERA of 5.06. The Twins have won five of Liriano's last eight outings since the start of June, but Liriano has allowed at least three earned runs five times.
The Twins do own some interesting trends this season, as Minnesota has hit the 'under' 13 of 16 times on the road when facing a right-hander at night, including 13 of the last 14. Flipping it around, the Twins have drilled the 'over' in 10 of 13 night home games against left-handed starters. The best role to back the 'under' with the Twins is during day games at the Metrodome facing a left-handed starter. Minnesota has nailed the 'under' ten of 11 times, while going just 2-9 in that role this season.
Another good trend to follow which applies on their current road trip is Minnesota hitting 17 of 20 games away from home facing right-handed pitchers in consecutive games. This trend begins Thursday night in Anaheim when the Twins battle John Lackey and the Angels. The matchup with the Halos comes after the Twins face A's righty Trevor Cahill. Following the Lackey game, Minnesota will see two more right-handers, Sean O'Sullivan and Ervin Santana in the final two games of the series.
It's tough to make a convincing argument on who will win the AL Central, but it's very conceivable that the division champion will have a record worse than the Wild Card winner. Regardless, the stretch run should be fun inside this division, as the Twins have definitely showed that beyond Mauer and Morneau, this team does have a rotation that keeps Minnesota in the race.
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