Halladay move would shuffle World Series odds
By JOSH NAGEL
In Major League Baseball’s annual buy-or-sell sweepstakes, there’s often one gem that shines brighter than the rest.
This year’s crown jewel is Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay. The American League starter in the All Star Game and 2003 Cy Young Award winner is enjoying perhaps the finest season of his career, posting a 10-3 record with a 2.85 ERA.
The 32-year-old right-hander has been a staple of reliability. He has gone at least seven innings in eight of his past 10 starts. He's on the bump at home Sunday, facing the Boston Red Sox in the series finale of their three-game set. Oddsmakers have Halladay and the Blue Jays listed as -123 favorites with the total set at 8 runs.
The 6-foot-5, 225-pound pitcher might be the missing link for a team on the fringe of becoming the division favorite and, perhaps, World Series contender.
“I think he’s in a world of his own, in regards to who might be available,” said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “You start with Halladay, then there’s a pretty big drop down in the market in terms of players who can have much of an impact.”
For those who question how much of a difference one player can make, you need to look no further than last season. The upstart Milwaukee Brewers were fading fast before they picked up C.C. Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians.
Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA to lead the Brewers to the National League Wild Card playoff berth, where they lost to the eventual World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies.
Oddsmakers and handicappers expect Halladay to make a similar splash should he get dealt from the Blue Jays. Toronto is in the throes of another losing season and could receive some promising prospects and payroll flexibility in return for their ace.
“I think, no matter where he goes, Halladay will make an instant impact because he is probably considered the best pitcher in the game right now,” said Michael Perry of Logans.com.
Oddsmakers Perry and Sinisi agree that Halladay would have an equally significant influence on the futures odds of any team that is fortunate enough to win the bidding war for his services.
Asked to assess the adjusted odds of the teams rumored to be vying for Halladay, the oddsmakers nearly sliced the World Series price in half for each club to account for the pitcher.
LVSC’s Sinisi and Perry of Logans.com also agreed to rank the teams in order of those most likely to acquire Halladay – based on budget, ability to meet Toronto’s return demands, expectations and other factors – as well as provide adjusted World Series odds for those teams.
The Covers.com staff averaged the results for the odds, and came up with the following:
New York Yankees (current World Series odds: +400; if they acquire Halladay: +200)
Sinisi: “The Yankees become the prohibitive favorite if they add Halladay. Particularly in a short series, along with Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, you have to make them the favorite.”
Philadelphia Phillies (current odds: +1000; Halladay odds: +600)
Sinisi: “For a team that is so desperate for pitching, putting Halladay at the front of their rotation would make a huge difference for them. For a team like the Yankees, who are not starved for pitching, he’d be just like another log on the fire.”
Los Angeles Angels (current odds: +800; Halladay odds: +400)
Perry: “With all injuries they have had, especially with pitching, they definitely could use the help here.”
Chicago Cubs (current odds: +1500; Halladay odds: +1000)
Perry: “This team has underachieved all season. Halladay is the first one at the clubhouse every day. Maybe his presence will wake up Chicago’s clubhouse.”
Milwaukee Brewers (current odds: +3000; Halladay odds: +2000)
Sinisi: “They have a lot of good, young players, and they turned it around last year with Sabathia. They are almost in the same spot this year, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they went on a run similar to what they did last season.”