Handicapping Fenway Park
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
There is no ballpark in baseball with more character than Boston's Fenway Park - or should we say Fenway Paahk.
With the imposing "Green Monster" in left field, "Pesky's Pole" in right field, limited foul territory, and nooks and crannies everywhere, the 97-year-old facility has always been a hitter's haven.
However, a sea of change may be taking place at the home of the Boston Red Sox. And it appears to be directly correlative to a player who no longer calls Fenway home - Manny Ramirez.
Since 2003, Fenway Park has been among baseball's top 10 offensive parks in every season except 2005 and 2006, when it was 12th and 13th, respectively, and still was statistically regarded as a venue that favored the hitter, according to ESPN.com’s Park Factor stats. So it should come as no surprise that the Red Sox have played higher-scoring games at home than on the road during that time.
The discrepancies have ranged from 0.15 runs in 2004 - when games involving Boston averaged 9.44 runs at home and 9.29 runs on the road - to an eye-popping 0.62 runs this season (9.68 home/9.06 road).
That offense has impacted Boston's totals, particularly at home. In the four seasons prior to 2003, the over at Fenway Park was just 127-180-17, clicking at 41 percent. It may have been hard to go low at such a cozy ballpark, but for a long time it was the proper play as the over was at least eight games under break-even every year.
However, in a five-year stretch starting in 2003, the over trend at Fenway did a complete flip-flop. The over was at least break-even in each year and was a sterling 222-166-17 overall, cashing at nearly 57 percent.
In 2003 and 2004, the over was 99-57-6 in games at Fenway Park. Even with oddsmakers adjusting for an obvious trend, the park continued to reward the over bettor for the next three seasons.
The abrupt change from 2002 to 2003 can be directly pegged to the arrival of David Ortiz and his insertion behind Ramirez in the middle of Boston's lineup.
Many felt the pairing was the best 1-2 power punch in the game, and the numbers proved it. From 2002 to 2003, the total in games involving Boston jumped 0.44 runs on the road and 0.50 runs at Fenway.
It is impossible to argue with Boston's success from 2003-07. The Red Sox reached the postseason four times and won two championships. And as noted above, they continued to provide a return for bettors playing the over at Fenway.
Although the Red Sox scored wherever they played, there was an incremental transition in their over/under performance on the road during that stretch. In 2003, the over in Boston's road games was 47-33-1; by 2007, that trend had flip-flopped to 32-48-1.
That dynamic could be attributed to oddsmakers adjusting to the offense of the Red Sox. The average totals in Boston's road games also dropped from 9.71 runs in 2005 to 9.31 runs in 2007.
But the most dramatic change took place in 2008, when Ramirez played just 100 games with Boston before being traded to Los Angeles and Ortiz was limited to 109 games due to injury.
Boston's totals dropped from 9.31 runs to 9.02 runs in road games and from 9.82 runs to 9.46 runs in contests at Fenway. The Red Sox were still scoring more runs at home than they did on the road - just not as much.
Even more startling was the change for total bettors. After five years at a clip of 57 percent, the over in games at Fenway Park was 35-41-4 in 2008, the first time it was less than break-even since 2002. Not coincidentally, that was the last year prior to the pairing of Ramirez and Ortiz.
Much has been made of Ortiz's struggles this season. He is batting just .197 with two homers while striking out better than once every four at-bats. There have been a number of assumptions, from a lingering wrist injury to his eyesight to the absence of Ramirez.
Ortiz's slump has not impacted Boston's ability to put runs on the board at Fenway, where totals are averaging 9.68 runs in 24 games this season. But the over is a mere 12-11-1, and after a year-plus of struggling to top the total, there appears to be a shift back toward the under.