Handicapping Oakland Coliseum

Handicapping Oakland Coliseum
By CHRIS BERNUCCA

How old is Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum?

Believe it or not, the Coliseum is the fifth-oldest ballpark in the major leagues. Only the cathedrals in Boston and Chicago and both buildings in Southern California are older.

In this era of sport-specific stadiums, the Coliseum is one of just three facilities that host both and MLB and NFL team, along with the Metrodome and Land Shark Stadium. And come 2012, the Coliseum will be the only such venue.

But here's how old the Coliseum really is: It is the only active baseball stadium to host a Led Zeppelin concert.

But the Coliseum doesn't get a whole lotta love from hitters. Maybe it's because the playing surface sits 20 feet below sea level. Maybe it's because it has the most foul territory of any current stadium. Or maybe it's because the lines (330 feet) and power alleys (388 feet) are much longer than those in contemporary homer havens.

Whatever it is, the Coliseum has played to increasingly lower totals and has been brutal on over players ever since Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon left town eight years ago.

The location stadium for the film "Angels in the Outfield," the Coliseum - as Bay Area residents call it, no matter what sponsor's name is on the facade - has been in the bottom third of the league in run rate and homer rate for most of the decade.

In 2001, the Coliseum ranked third in run rate and fifth in homer rate as the A's made the playoffs for the second of four straight years. But in the offseason, Giambi and Damon left via free agency, and the Coliseum ranked no higher than 28th in either category for the next two years.

The facility was eighth in both homer rate in 2004 and run rate in 2005 but has reverted to form since. The Coliseum has been buried in the lower third in both categories for the last three-plus years, ranking 20th in run rate (.932) and 22nd in homer rate (.859).

The further the rate is below 1, the more the venue favors the pitcher.

The ballpark's average totals have been trampled under foot over the same span. A's home games averaged better than 10 runs in 1999 and 2000 and a solid 9.31 in 2001. It has not been above 8.85 since and checked in at a feeble 8.07 last year.

But the most alarming number is the difference in total runs scored in home and road games involving the Athletics. In 2001, the differential was a miniscule .02 runs per game. From 2004-07, the differential was nearly four-tenths of a run.

Last year, Oakland's home games averaged .49 runs less than its road games. This season, A's games average 8.4 runs at home and 9.0 runs on the road, a stratospheric differential of .60 runs.

Even more astounding is how handicappers haven't seemed to adjust for a long-term trend. The over hasn't had a break-even season at the Coliseum since 2002, going 205-250-30 in the last six full seasons.

Despite the huge run differential in Oakland's home and road games this year, there has been somewhat of a market correction. The over is 15-16 at the Coliseum after going just 61-87-12 the last two seasons.

But as Plant and Page crooned years ago at the Coliseum - and over players can attest - the song remains the same.