Handicapping the Heat Index
By Marc Lawrence
The MLB All Star break couldn’t come at a better time.
With the thermometer soaring and baseball teams positioning themselves for a second half pennant run, the linesmaker figures to have his hands full trying to gauge which direction each team will head.
Cool down
Some teams will hit their stride and make a run toward the playoffs while others will simply hit the wall. Rest assured that pitching has a lot of say about which teams will be playing in October.
One good barometer in handicapping teams during the 2nd half of the season is to observe what they’ve done the 1st half of the campaign. Teams that have played to extremes tend to revert back to the norm by season’s end.
This is a good thing when it comes to ‘Over/Under’ totals as the first half of this season has been alarmingly ’Under’. That’s confirmed by the fact that, heading into the final weekend prior to the All Star break, this year’s tally read 1142 ‘Overs’, 1292 ‘Unders’ and 110 ties.
That’s 150 more Unders than Overs, a strong indicator that pitching has dominated hitting the first half of the 2009 season.
Over there
Knowing that summer heat and humidity lend to higher scoring games (the ball flies farther in these conditions) and coupling our ‘return to the norm’ theory to the equation, it would be safe to assume that a push to the ‘Over’ would not surprise the astute handicapper.
The leading ‘Under’ teams this season have been the Atlanta Braves (34-46-5), Chicago Cubs (34-45-3), Cincinnati Reds 936-46-2), Houston Astros (34-46-5) and Pittsburgh Pirates (36-46-3) in the National League along with the Chicago White Sox (34-49-2), Detroit Tigers (33-49-2), Kansas City Royals (36-46-3), Minnesota Twins (38-48-2), Oakland Athletics (36-46-1), Seattle Mariners (34-49-2) and Texas Rangers (31-50-3) in the American League.
The feeling here is this group of teams will likely lead an ‘Over’ surge during the 2nd half of the season ahead.
Taking a dip
In the same vein, pitchers that have been top-heavy to ‘Unders’ the first half of the campaign look to be prime candidates to fall prey to the summer elements.
Included in this group would be the likes of Oakland’s Vince Mazzaro (0-7), Texas’ Scott Feldman (2-11), Minnesota’s Anthony Swarzak (1-5), Toronto’s Robert Ray (0-4) and Texas’ Tommy Hunter (0-4).
Hence, it would be no surprise to find this quintet ‘Over’ exhausted by season’s end.
Pass the salt
In closing, keep in mind that starting pitchers will surely be key factors toward the success or failure of teams during the post All Star parade.
Staff aces that have started slow – like Cleveland’s Cliff Lee, Houston’s Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, L.A. Angels’ John Lackey and the N.Y. Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia to name a few - figure to find a new groove.
On the flip side, others that have been overachievers - such as Boston’s Tim Wakefield, Chicago Cubs’ Ted Lilly, Colorado’s Jason Marquis, Detroit’s Edwin Jackson and Kansas City’s Zach Greinke - figure to level out sooner than later. Our best advice would be to either fade or pass on these arms.
There you have it. If you can’t beat the heat this summer, head right inside and have a cool one. I can’t ‘over’ emphasize the good it will do.