Handicapping the Metrodome
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
The Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome will be gone next year, giving way to a new home for the Minnesota Twins known as Target Field.
Good riddance!
Is there any current baseball stadium less suited for the national pastime than the Metrodome? Built for football and the site of two Final Fours, its springy surface, low roof, makeshift "Hefty Bag" right field wall and awful acoustics have turned baseball into an unpredictable game of pinball since 1982.
The only folks who may miss the Metrodome are the Twins, who have maximized one of the biggest home-field advantages in sports. In addition to taking World Series titles in 1987 and 1991 - both times by winning Game 7 at home - the Twins are 128 games over .500 at home straight up since 2002. Minnesota has four postseason appearances in that span; only the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees have more.
But the Metrodome isn't only tough on visitors. It is tough on sluggers, even though it was once known as the
"Homerdome." It’s tough on offense, which has dramatically dipped this decade.
And despite this season's trend, it's historically tough on over players who falsely believe it is a hitter's park.
This year, the Metrodome ranks third in run rate at 1.217 and 13th in homer rate at 1.030. Those are its highest numbers in seven years.
Run rate is determined by a mathematical formula that compares the total runs by a team in its home park to the total runs by the same team in its road games. A number above 1.0 means the ballpark favors the hitter in that category, so the Metrodome has an extraordinary run rate and an average home run rate - this year.
However, the Metrodome's run rate had been no higher than 1.076 and ranked no higher than 10th since 2002. It ranked 28th the last two years with run rates lower than 0.9. Its homer rates have a stronger trend, not eclipsing 0.955 or ranking higher than 14th since 2003.
The ballpark doesn't surrender more runs than other venues the way it once did. From 1999-2003, Twins games in the Metrodome consistently produced more runs than in Minnesota's road games. Since 2004, the higher average total has seesawed from the road to home, without a discernible difference.
And the league-wide drop in offense over the last decade is more pronounced at the Metrodome. In 1999, Twins home games averaged 10.302 runs. They are averaging 8.760 runs this year, a significant reduction of 1.542 runs.
Using totals figures for the last 10 full years, the Metrodome has been an "under" ballpark. The only season in which the over has been significantly above .500 was 2000, when it was 43-34-4. By contrast, there have been five seasons where the under performed at least 11 games above even.
This year has seen a surprising reversal at the Metrodome – the over is 28-20. With the addition of Joe Crede, a healthy Michael Cuddyer and a power boost from Joe Mauer, the Twins are on the verge of surpassing last year's homer total of 111. Meanwhile, the pitching has fallen from the middle of the pack to the bottom of the league.
Given the park's history and the possibility of the Twins becoming sellers at the trading deadline, it is hard to conclusively say that this season's trend will continue.
But one thing is for certain: It won't continue next year.