Handicapping U.S. Cellular Field
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
Get up! Stretch! You can put it on the board - Yes!
If you've ever watched a Chicago White Sox game, then you know this is the standard home run call by announcer Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, who makes no apologies for his hometown bias.
But that slant doesn't carry over to U.S. Cellular Field, the home of the White Sox. While it has provided plenty of opportunities for Harrelson to launch into his patented call and has translated into tons of runs over the last seven years, the ballpark has wreaked havoc with totals players in search of trends.
Opened in 1991 as a contemporary replacement for the old Comiskey Park on Chicago's South Side, U.S. Cellular's original dimensions saw the left and right field corners measure 347 feet from home plate.
They were shortened to 330 feet before the 2001 campaign, which has had an impact on the number of homer calls Harrelson has delivered.
With big bats such as Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko and Jim Thome in Chicago's lineup over the years, U.S. Cellular Field has ranked in the top five in home run rate in every season since 2003. It led the major leagues at 1.402 in 2004 and finished second three times.
During the same span, U.S. Cellular has placed in the top third of major league parks in run rate, although always with a ranking lower than its homer rate. Its best run rate of 1.139 also was in 2004, good for third.
Last year, the park was second in homer rate and fourth in run rate. But the drop off by Carlos Quentin and the offseason departures of Nick Swisher and Joe Crede have had an impact.
This year, U.S. Cellular is fifth in homer rate at 1.137 but just 23rd in run rate at 0.911, a huge discrepancy. A run rate below 1.0 means the park favors the pitcher, which hasn't happened at U.S. Cellular since 2003.
The park is averaging 9.128 runs per game, just a bit less than the 9.137 of a year ago. But the over is just 14-29 at U.S. Cellular this season after going 43-36-1 in 2008.
And if you're looking for a totals trend at U.S. Cellular beyond this year, forget it. This would mark the eighth straight year in which the over has flip-flopped from above .500 to below .500, producing a basically balanced 292-294-27 record during that period.
There is a clearer trend when the White Sox hit the road, where the totals have averaged about a quarter of a run less since 2002 and the under has been a consistently solid investment.
In each of the last six full seasons, the under in Chicago's road games has been at least six wins above .500, generating a profitable overall mark of 259-204-25.
However, the under is 20-23-2 in Chicago's road contests this season, which would end that trend.
Here's the rundown: U.S. Cellular Field still produces many more homers but not as many runs as other parks. Its totals haven't changed much, but the over/under records have shifted on an annual basis. The under had been a steady winner in Chicago's road games, but not this year.
So if you're looking for a consistent trend, stick with Harrelson's home run call.