High and low aces: Betting baseball's best arms
By The Miller Group.
As we flip the calendar page to May, some staff aces are already in midseason form while others are still working out the kinks.
Here's a look at two to play and two to fade in the coming weeks.
The best of the best
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Lincecum got off to a rough start, but that had a lot to do with him being limited by a nasty virus at the end of spring training.
Lincecum has been masterful since going winless in his first two outings while allowing 14 hits and seven earned runs over just 8 1-3 innings,.
The diminutive righty has allowed only 16 hits and four earned runs in 23 innings of work over his last three starts. He struck out only 10 in his first two starts, but has mowed down 33 since.
As long as he pitches for the Giants, Lincecum should offer plenty of line value. San Francisco's reputation as an N.L. bottom feeder has held strong despite the fact they're a .500 team.
Lincecum's next start will be Tuesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers didn't exactly have a banner month of April, but that's no fault of Yovani Gallardo.
Gallardo has regained his rookie season form after an injury-shortened 2008 season. You'll remember he burst onto the scene midway through the 2007 season and went 9-5 with a 3.67 ERA.
So far, so good here in 2009.
Save for one rocky outing against the Reds, Gallardo has been virtually untouchable. In his last three starts he has allowed just 12 hits and two earned runs spanning 23 innings.
He turned in one of the best performances of his career last week against the Pirates, holding them to two hits over eight shutout innings, striking out 11 along the way.
Gallardo still isn't a household name - not yet, at least. My recommendation is to back him while his prices are still south of -200. Keep in mind, you had to pay -190 to back the Brew Crew in his most recent start.
Cold as ace
Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs
Something just isn't right with Rich Harden right now.
Whether it's his mechanics, a nagging injury, or otherwise, the time is now to fade the Cubs ace.
Chicago has actually won his last three starts, but that's only because the club’s managed to hang crooked numbers on the board each time, scoring 25 total runs.
Harden has been laboring. He has yet to last beyond the sixth inning in five starts this season and he seems to be getting shakier with each outing. Last Friday he allowed six hits, four walks and five earned runs over just 3 2-3 innings against the Marlins.
For the season he owns a 5.11 ERA and 1.42 WHIP (walks and hits per inning). Those are ugly numbers for a guy that has a career 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
The Cubs offense won't be able to bail Harden out every start. He's been priced steeper than -200 in three of his previous five starts, so there is a substantial reward for catching him on a bad day.
Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
What has happened to this guy?
Things started out well enough, as he limited the Rays to two hits and a run over seven innings in a 5-3 season-opening win.
It's been all downhill from there.
Over his last four starts, Beckett has made a case for being the most hittable pitcher in baseball. He has been tagged for 34 hits and 22 earned runs over that stretch. Somehow, the Red Sox still managed to split those four games.
Some are saying that Beckett's struggles stem from his suspension for throwing at Bobby Abreu's head earlier this season. In order for him to be successful he needs to own the inside part of the plate, but since being reprimanded he's been hesitant to go there.
I don't buy that for a second.
Maybe it's time we realize that Beckett hasn't been anything more than an average pitcher in two of his previous three seasons with the Red Sox, and isn't going to regain the form that saw him lead the Marlins to an improbable World Series title early in his career.
The Red Sox do remain one of the league's best, so I don't recommend blindly fading Beckett, but picking your spots wisely should pay off in the long-run.