Hot and Cold Aces Betting Report
By The Miller Group.
We've seen some aces come full circle over the last couple of weeks, going from dominant into a lengthy slump - and now back out of it again.
That's the roller coaster that is the 162-game MLB season.
Here's a look at two aces to play, and two to fade in the coming weeks.
The best of the best
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
It’s time to start banking on Zack Greinke again.
He's put together back-to-back fine starts after an extended slide, holding the Astros and Pirates to just three earned runs over 14 1-3 innings of work.
Perhaps the most positive sign to come out of Greinke's last two starts has been that he hasn't issued a single walk.
Control hasn't been much of an issue this season, with only 18 walks to date, but in his three starts prior to his current two-game winning streak, he had handed out six base-on-balls.
I should also point out that he allowed three home runs during that three-start stretch. He hasn't allowed a single round tripper in any other start this season.
Greinke's next start is scheduled for Friday versus the White Sox, in what should be a winnable game for the Royals at home.
Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates
While he doesn't get much press pitching for the lowly Pirates, Zach Duke is quietly having the best season of his young career.
The key with betting Duke is playing him at home, where he is 6-3 with an ERA under 3.00 in nine starts this season.
Heading into Monday's loss to the Cubs, Duke hadn't lost a start at home since May 1 when he fell 4-0 to the Cincinnati Reds. Since then, he is 5-1, allowing only 13 earned runs in 43 innings pitched.
That's nothing new for the 26-year-old left-hander. He is a career 24-20 at home, but just 10-25 on the road.
The Pirates remain mired in sixth place in the NL Central but have shown some signs of life recently, winning four of their last six games.
Even in his loss Monday, Duke still put in a quality start. He went seven innings, giving up only three runs on seven hits, but was let down by the Bucs lack of run support.
Cold as ice
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs lost for the first time in six Ted Lilly starts in Detroit last week.
Could it be a sign of things to come as we head into July?
The Tigers absolutely ripped Lilly in that most recent start, picking up 10 hits and six runs (all earned) in six innings.
Over his last three outings, Lilly has allowed 25 hits and 11 earned runs over 19 2-3 innings.
For the season, he has allowed 10 fewer hits than inning pitched - so those recent numbers are somewhat alarming.
While Wrigley Field has been extremely kind to the veteran left-hander (4-1, 1.85 ERA), his road starts have been disastrous. In eight starts away from home, Lilly is just 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA.
His next start will come Tuesday night in Pittsburgh.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Verlander had a nice 7-1 run to get to 8-3 on the season, but now we're starting to see some regression.
The Tigers have won only twice in his last five starts and he has allowed 20 hits and issued nine walks in his last three starts, covering 17 innings of work.
Verlander's ERA away from home is approaching five. On the trail, he has allowed five more hits than innings pitched.
Contrast that with his home numbers, a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 17 fewer hits than innings pitched.
The Tigers will remain on the road through next weekend, with Verlander getting his next start in Oakland Wednesday afternoon.
The Tigers ace has just one win in four career starts at McAfee Coliseum.