Hot and Cold MLB Hurlers
By SEAN MURPHY
All season long, I’ll isolate two starting pitchers to play and two to fade in a two-week window.
Before you call me out on not including guys like Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, remember, I’m looking for pitchers that boast value. That means I won’t always be targeting Cy Young candidates.
Here’s a look at this week’s list:
Moneymakers
Dallas Braden, Oakland Athletics
Since returning to the rotation after a month-long stint on the disabled list, Dallas Braden has helped his team to four wins in five starts.
He’s gone the distance in two of his last three outings, and thanks to that month off, should still have a live arm down the stretch.
The long ball continues to be a bit of an issue, but Braden has recorded at least five strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has given up just nine hits over his last 15 innings of work.
The A’s aren’t in top form right now, but they’ll be returning to Oakland for a seven-game homestand beginning on Monday night.
They still have solid value at home, where they’re 10 games over .500 on the season.
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Brett Myers is one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball this season and I don’t think there’s any denying it.
Despite pitching for a weak Astros squad, Myers has still managed to post a winning record along with a terrific 3.13 ERA and 1.21 WHIP (walks + hits per inning).
The Astros have won six of Myers’ last seven starts overall, and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once over that stretch.
It’s been quite a turnaround for a guy that recorded an ERA north of 4.30 while going 19-23 over the last three seasons.
Houston is playing better baseball lately, and that opens the door for us to back Myers, at least in his next couple of starts.
Bankroll burners
Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees
Vazquez has been dodging bullets lately, managing to go 3-1 over his last seven starts despite being wildly inconsistent.
He’s gotten progressively worse in each of his last three outings, lasting 6 1/3, 5 1/3, and 4 1/3 innings respectively. Over that stretch he’s been tagged for 22 hits and 13 earned runs.
It’s also worth noting that the veteran righthander has allowed at least one home run in five consecutive starts and seven total over that period.
The Yankees’ offense can only bail out Vazquez for so long. In games where they’ve scored three runs or less this season, he’s posted an ugly 4-8 record.
Keep an eye out for spots where you’re being asked to lay heavy chalk with Vazquez in the coming weeks, and be ready to fade.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Something isn’t right with "The Freak" these days.
The Giants have dropped each of his last three starts, and Lincecum has been rocked for 22 hits and 14 earned runs in just 14 innings over that stretch.
We’ve seen the velocity on his fastball inexplicably drop over his last two outings, and opposing hitters are taking full advantage of his lack of command.
Lincecum held opponents to a .268 batting average or lower in each of the first four months of the season, but here in August, they’re hitting well north of .300 against him.
There still appears to be plenty of value in fading Lincecum. In his most recent start, he was listed as a -170 favorite against the NL West-leading Padres. San Diego won that game 8-2. In two of his three starts previous, he closed as a -190 or higher favorite.
As much as I like the way the Giants have been playing, backing them with their franchise pitcher on the mound just isn’t a favorable proposition right now.