In search of the smart $$$

Anyone else try to figure out who might a good bet using this info?

I have looked at it many times myself and just find it to confusing,I just stick to the pie charts to see who the public is betting.

Balde, I am hoping that someone here knows more about thiis then we do.

The weird thing is that when you match up the pies to the top public bets listed on the right hand side of the same page... they do not match. It does not match the public contest sites I look at ether. This # of bets coming in is folks actually betting at 4 major online books. The other weird thing is that these guys are smart. My theory is that these guys are not the public. If you had bet against them since I have been watching you would be scratching a broke uknow. I look at this stuff early and maybe closer to game time might show more of a public type betting trend?

Part of the graph on the right shows how these bets have come in over time. The other part of the graph show how the line has moved. If you click the graph it gets bigger and shows much better detail. And you can show the other team for the line movement. And you can change the time it represents. The problem is that I do knot know where this line is coming from. It matches up pretty close to Pinny but makes some swings that I do not see anywhere at the 30 books I watch. I also have and average line thing I watch and I does not match up there ether. Anyone know where this line comes from?

Starting Monday I made my best guesses using the # of bets matched up w/ the line movement shown on the graph. I came up w/ about 5 games a day that I liked. What I didn't like was that there were more favs tha dogs but... I and am up 12.9 units as of Sunday.

The one thing I do know that if Sports Insights goes to the trouble to do this stuff... if means something.

Oh, anyone know other ways to tell where the smart $$$ is being bet?
Joe

Cash knows this info like the back of his hand and I will drop him a line and see if he can help explain it for you better than I can since I can't figure it out for the life of me. 😀

Can you give me some questions I can answer? You got a lot going on in your posts PapaJoe, I am not really sure what is a question and what is just your comments.

I am happy to help with whatever you need.

Anyone else who also has any questions about these please feel free to ask as well.

Even you Blade 🙂

OK I'll bite. What exactly is "smart money"? Is that like at the racetrack,and the last hard action bet on horses is smart?

Smart money refers to line movement opposite the public betting percentage.

For example if 70% of the public is betting on the Steelers -7 and the line moved from -7 to -6 that would be indicative of smart money because with that many people on Pitt the line should move above 7 not below it.

So when that happens something important caused it to happen thus making it "smart" to be alerted to these occurrences and potentially making your own play(s) based off this information.

Michael, thanks for your help! You pretty much hit the nail on the head as far as where the smart money is going. The theory is that the larger bets are smarter money. The weird thing is that the # of bets, if you look at them early, are pretty smart also. These are folks actually betting on these games. When the # goes over 70% they win at a high %. But... it's almost always favs. What I am looking for are things that are not going like they should. If a team is a $200 fav you would expect the # of bets to be a high % also. Sometimes it is not. And then if the line is moving towards the dog... then the dog might be a good bet. The smarter and larger bets are coming in on the dog. If the # of bets is high on the fav, and the line is going up, then the fav might be a good bet.

Today 7/16 the LAD/Hou game shows 73% on LAD and the line move is from LAD -123 up to -134. If you click the line graph it gets bigger shows a sharp swing down and then a sharp swing way up. The swing down worries me but I like the BIG swing up. If not for that down swing LAD would have been a play for me. I may just see what happens though.

I did pick a few dogs that won last week. The # of bets on the fav were not as high as I thought they should be and the line showed a steady move down towards the dog.

I do have two questions.

1.On the right hand side of the page there is a normally a "top 10 public bets" thing. For some reason it is not up today. When it is up where is this info coming from??? It is WAY different from the # of bets coming in on the pie charts.

2. Where is the line movement on the line graph coming from? I have tried to match it up and it is close to the Pini line but makes some sharp swings that I do not see at any of the 30 books I watch. Those sharp swings are pretty smart by the way. Maybe the line graph is showing some things that my line history is not showing?

There are lots of different ways to look at this info. If anyone has some suggestions I'm all ears. :~)
Joe

Oh, there are several games with sharp up and down swings today. This is not normally the case. The CUB and CIN games both show some sharp swings both ways. You must click the line graphs to see this. Both games how a sharp down swing followed by a sharp up swing. Hmmm? It takes some big bets to make these sharp swings I think? Looks like some smart $$$ likes both sides. That makes these a no play for me.

And oh, I do like the looks of the dog in the LAA/OAK game. But... what a weird game we choose to play... knowing that we will be wrong at least 40% of the time. :~)
Joe

Mission accomplished:

Undefeated77 8)

I do have two questions.

1.On the right hand side of the page there is a normally a "top 10 public bets" thing. For some reason it is not up today. When it is up where is this info coming from??? It is WAY different from the # of bets coming in on the pie charts.

2. Where is the line movement on the line graph coming from? I have tried to match it up and it is close to the Pini line but makes some sharp swings that I do not see at any of the 30 books I watch. Those sharp swings are pretty smart by the way. Maybe the line graph is showing some things that my line history is not showing?

1a. The top 10 bets don't show up till around noon. Not sure why that is, my guess is that there isn't enough data before then since a lot of books don't do overnight baseball.
1b. This data comes directly from the public betting charts that list all the games. The difference in the data comes from the fact that they are averaged for the top 10 less frequently then the entire charts. The reason for this is because it's a big drain on resources to update everything together so we were asked to only call the top 10 once per hour.

2a. The line history comes from Pinnacle

2b. The difference in the data is two fold. First, just like the top 10 bets that graph isn't built as frequently as Pinnacle updates their line. Also, Pinnacle deals different lines to different people so what you see when you login may be different then what I see when I login or what you would see if you just visit Pinnacle's site without logging in at all.

Hope this helps. Any other questions just let me know.

Michael, thanks again! Where can someone look at the public betting charts you mentioned? This info does not look like it is coming from the Sports Insights deal.

Well the dog in the LAA/OAK won. So did the dog in the Phil/Flor game. Both had a down line move and less than 70% of the bets coming in on the fav. Hey, I'm having fun with this. I am sure not claiming I have it figured out though.
Joe

I thought you were looking at the public betting charts and that is where your questions are coming from?

I'm confused

I think we need to start calling PapaJoe8 the PieMan ;D