July Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Fireworks and the MLB All-Star game go hand-in-hand during the month of July. It also denotes the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. And as we’ve come to learn the key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff.
Can they sustain or will they unravel like Jose Canseco going back on a fly ball? Stay tuned. What we do know is that certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle on the 4thof July.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of July.
On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in July, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.
And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.
Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s July list.
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
*Chen, Wei-Yin - 9-4 (5-1 H)
The Miami left-hander has not been terribly effective with an ERA hovering around 5. If Chen can develop more command, he's shown again this year he's tough when in challenging situations, allowing .186 batting average and .271 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position.
Garza, Matt - 9-3 (5-1 H)
Since coming back from spring training injury on June 14th, the Milwaukee right-hander has been a mix of good and bad, but come through when it counted. Opposing hitters are batting over .300 against Garza, but he's held those runners in check and induced a heavy dose of ground balls that have led to outs. If he continues, this Brewers starter might be effective.
Greinke, Zack - 11-4 (6-2 H)
Though Arizona is falling short of preseason expectations, the Diamondbacks ace is not and, other than Clayton Kershaw, has arguably been as effective as any pitcher since the end of April with batters hitting around .200 against him. Once again his array of pitches are finding the right spots and fastball is cooking!
Kazmir, Scott - 10-5 (6-2 H)
When Kazmir misses on location for fastball, the other team's lineup begins to look for off-speed stuff, which has caused his inconsistency this season. When he's working the corners on the knees early in the count, this sets up secondary pitches. In the past he's done so in July, let's see what he comes up with this time.
*Kershaw, Clayton - 12-3 (8-0 A)
When either Kershaw loses or has a less than stellar performance, which is infrequent, it is home page news on most sports websites. With opponents batting just .185 against him, baseball's best pitcher has close to as many home runs surrendered (6) as walks (9) to start the month over 121 innings. It’s no wonder his name is whispered in the same company as Sandy Koufax.
Kluber, Corey - 13-4 (9-2 H)
Since winning the Cy Young award in 2014, Kluber has not been able to match that magical season, but is part of a very good Cleveland rotation. Looking ahead, if the Indians righty can do a better job than permitting .281 batting averages with runners in scoring position, all his numbers will drop and his victories will go up. Note: Kluber’s numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.
*Liriano, Francisco - 12-2 (7-0 H)
After several fine seasons with Pittsburgh, Liriano has not been effective in 2016. Walks and home runs have done him in and in order to reflect past results of July, he's going to have to stop leaving pitches in the heart of the plate.
Peralta, Wily - 8-4 (5-1 H)
Peralta has been thoroughly ineffective all season (6.68 ERA) and was sent to minors after June 11th start. His return this month or this season depends on his Triple-A results. Note: Peralta’s numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.
Price, David - 11-5 (7-1 A)
To date, the Boston lefty could be described as a mild disappointment, with an ERA north of 4.5 most of the season. No longer owning an upper 90's heater, Price does not blow away as many hitters as before and the fastball lacks some of the previous movement of the past. The slider has not had the usual bite from start to start. Red Sox need this ace to be one.
Ross, Tyson - 10-4 (4-1 H)
Ross has not pitched since he hit the DL with right shoulder inflammation after first start in April. San Diego Union reports a return even this month appears optimistic.
Note: Ross’ numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.
Santana, Ervin - 11-4 (8-1 H)
Like his teammates, Santana is not having a good year, as opposing hitters are clocking him for nearly .300 average, compared to .256 over his 11-year career. Little reason to believe this month will match the past even if he improves with this Twins club.
*Volquez, Edinson - 10-5 (6-1 A)
Never a frontline hurler, Volquez numbers this campaign have matched the Royals, being very ordinary to date. The Dominican Republic native has done the job against right-handed batters, who have been knocking him around for nearly .300 average.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Wood, Alex - 4-8 (0-6 A)
Wood – the only pitcher to appear on the July Bad Month list this season - was initially expected to be shut down for four weeks after landing on the 15-day disabled list at the end of May with a posterior impingement in his throwing elbow. Currently, the timetable is for mid-July return, but the oft-injured pitcher can hardly be counted on as record shows. Note: Wood’’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during July.
How to wager MLB totals following wins and losses
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
On May 1 at Citi Field in Queens, New York, two of Major League Baseball’s most dominant starting pitchers took the mound for their respective playoff-contending clubs in a highly anticipated matchup that featured a predictably low total of just 6.5 runs.
Eighteen hits, seven runs and three hours and nineteen minutes later, over bettors danced to sports book windows around the great city of Las Vegas to cash their winning tickets.
To the unsuspecting eye, what happened in the Big Apple on May 1 when the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (1.94 ERA, second in MLB) and the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (2.56 ERA, seventh in MLB) squared off in a potential playoff preview was nothing more than a blip on the radar. After all, no starting pitcher in baseball, no matter how dominant on a regular basis, is without a hiccup every now and then. But what the unsuspecting eye unfortunately glosses over is exactly what the trained betting eye attempts to understand in the hopes of uncovering perhaps one crucial piece of information that can be of significant use down the road.
In regards to this particular matchup between the Giants and Mets, how exactly did a showdown between two Cy Young candidates backed by clubs not known for explosive run production (Giants: 4.71 runs per game, 12th, Mets: 3.81 rpg, 28th) result in a victory for the over instead of the under?
The answer lies in what happened the night before.
Approximately 24 hours before that Bumgarner-led 6-1 win for the Giants, New York’s Jacob deGrom outdueled San Francisco’s Matt Cain in a 6-5 victory that favored the Mets. The deGrom-Cain showdown was an important piece of information to consider heading into the Bumgarner-Syndergaard matchup because of the following information: In 2016, the over is a scorching 23-9-1 (.719, best in MLB) in games when San Francisco is coming off a loss and 26-19-2 (.578, sixth-best in MLB) in games when the New York Mets are coming off a win.
The precise reason for such results is difficult to nail down. In some instances it came down to a favorable pitching matchup while in others it could have involved something mental, such as a more concerted effort at the plate in an attempt to make up for a poor showing the night before. In either event, this is information worth considering as it pertains to MLB totals because there are quite a few teams turning a significant profit this season based on the following set of criteria:
MLB Over records following a loss
San Francisco Giants: 23-9-1 (.719)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 26-16-1 (.619)
Minnesota Twins: 32-20-4 (.615)
Detroit Tigers: 25-17-1 (.595)
Chicago Cubs: 19-14-2 (.576)
Additionally, the Red Sox (.571), Padres (.571), Reds (.566), Indians (.559) and Nationals (.556) are all hitting overs at 55 percent or better when coming off a loss this season.
MLB Under records following a loss
New York Mets: 28-13 (.683)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 24-14-2 (.632)
Kansas City Royals: 25-17-1 (.595)
New York Yankees: 22-15-7 (.595)
Baltimore Orioles: 21-15 (.583)
In addition to the five clubs listed above, the Blue Jays (.564) and Astros (.553) are cashing under bets at 55 percent or better when coming off a win during the 2016 season.
But a loss is only half the equation and we certainly don’t want to limit our pool of potentially profitable information entering the second half of the 2016 MLB campaign. So let’s take a look at which teams cover overs and unders the most frequently when coming off a victory.
MLB Over records following a win
Minnesota Twins: 22-9-1 (.710)
Cincinnati Reds: 19-9-4 (.679)
Baltimore Orioles: 30-18-3 (.625)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 28-18 (.609)
Texas Rangers: 29-21-4 (.580)
Not to be excluded, the Mets (.578), Cardinals (.578), Yankees (.571), Diamondbacks (.556), Red Sox (.553), Indians (.553) and Braves (.552) are all cashing over bets at 55 percent or better when coming off a win this season.
MLB Under records following a win
Toronto Blue Jays: 30-18-3 (.625)
San Francisco Giants: 34-22-1 (.607)
Tampa Bay Rays: 18-13-3 (.581)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 28-22-1 (.560)
Colorado Rockies: 21-17-2 (.553)
Outside of these five franchises, no other team in baseball is currently cashing unders when coming off a defeat at 55 percent or better.
Oh, and speaking of those San Francisco Giants, here’s something to keep in mind entering Saturday evening’s matchup in San Diego between Jeff Samardzija and Luis Perdomo: San Francisco lost on Friday night, which means it might not be the worst idea in the world to consider playing over 8.0 runs in Saturday night’s showdown.
MLB Under bettors are up big money since the All-Star break
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
In a baseball season dominated by the home run, MLB Under bettors are hitting one out of the park by staying below the total since the All-Star break.
After a 3-11-0 Over/Under count for Tuesday’s action on the diamond, post-break baseball has produced a 20-45-5 Over/Under record – staying Under the betting total at more than a 69 percent clip. Given the average juice on a totals bet being -115, if you blindly bet $100 on the Under for every MLB game since Friday, you’d be up more $1,913 in just five short days.
Scoring has significantly slumped since the All-Star break, dropping from an average total of 8.9 runs per game pre-break to 7.2 total runs scored post-break, heading into Wednesday’s slate. That decreased scoring rate has faced an average closing betting total of 8.5 runs in that five-day span. From April to July 12, MLB games featured an average closing total of 8.3 runs.
This isn't anything new to baseball betting, but it is much more pronounced in 2016. The All-Star break has produced a solid lean toward the Under immediately following the annual showcase in recent years, with those remaining July contests producing a 361-456-44 Over/Under mark (55.8 percent Under) in post-break July the past four seasons (2012-2015).
This summer, major league clubs are hitting a combined .232 BA since the break in schedule compared to .257 BA before the break, and that record home run rate – which saw 1.16 dingers per game before July 15 – is down to just one home run a contest since the Mid-Summer Classic.
According to ESPN Stats and Info, the major leagues are currently on a record-pace for home runs with 5,584 round-trippers projected for the season, as of Monday. That’s 675 more home runs than last season and 1,398 more than 2014. The only MLB season with a higher home run rate was the steroid-bolstered 2000 campaign.
That power surge at the plate had teams scoring 4.45 runs per game before the All-Star hiatus, which had the 2016 season on pace as the highest scoring season since 2009. And those extra runs helped Over bettors in the first half of the schedule, with pre-break baseball posting a 659-609 Over/Under record, topping the total 52 percent of the time.
Last year, post-break baseball (July 17 to October 4) finished with a 554-489-56 Over/Under record – going Over 53 percent of the time – with an average of 8.49 total runs scored versus an average closing total of 7.79. However, in the four years prior (2011-2014) MLB games played after the break went 1,938-2,074-219 Over/Under (almost 52 percent Under) with an average total score of 8.27 against an average closing total of 8.02 runs.
Oddsmakers won’t be making any knee-jerk reactions to this current trend, so don’t expect the MLB totals to suddenly get slimmed down. However, those Over/Under numbers do traditionally come down a bit with teams fighting for postseason spots as the calendar flips to August. The average betting total for MLB games in August over the past five seasons is 7.99 runs, including dipping to 7.85 runs last August.