June Doom for Twins
By Joe Nelson
The Twins climbed back to .500 this week and Minnesota remains a dangerous team at home. Unfortunately June will be spent on the road as the Twins have played the most home games in baseball with 30 of the first 49 games coming at the Metrodome. Starting June 5th, the Twins will play 19 of the next 25 games on the road before a home stand leading into the All-Star Break. So far this year the Twins have the fewest road wins in baseball with a 5-14 mark. In fairness the Twins have played the fewest number of road games. They have also already had to play at Boston and New York, but that also means that west coast games are on the horizon.
Minnesota is starting to receive some attention for their superstar hitters Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau who have both had amazing starts to the season. Mauer did not start playing until May 1st with an injury, but he has hit .425 with eleven home runs and 32 RBI already this month. Morneau has hit .366 in the month with nine home runs and 26 RBI. Both players are talented all star players that should continue to produce but expecting that type of production all season would be foolish. Minnesota currently ranks 5th in baseball in overall team batting average as Jason Kubel, Denard Span, and Michael Cuddyer have been solid producers. The power surge from Mauer as well as the addition of Joe Crede has also made the Twins a respectable home run hitting team after years of ranking towards the bottom of baseball in power categories.
The middle of the infield is still a problem area as Brendan Harris has been average and Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert have not produced. Promising talents Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez have also had slow starts but all things considered the offense has done its part and if anything is overachieving at this point in the year. The problem is that with all this great production and a home-heavy schedule, the Twins are just a .500 team. The offensive numbers should fade with upcoming road trips to Seattle and Oakland as well as a tough interleague road schedule featuring games in Chicago, Milwaukee, and St. Louis in the month of June.
Pitching has been the real reason that the Twins have not posted a stronger record. Many projected the Minnesota rotation to be among the better staffs in the American League as five promising young starters all posted encouraging numbers last year. The biggest question mark of the group was Nick Blackburn who was not as highly touted of a prospect and filled in last season unexpectedly. Blackburn has had the best numbers of any of the Twins starters with a 3.55 ERA. Kevin Slowey has moved to 7-1 although he has not pitched as well as his record indicates, he is putting together quality outings.
Glen Perkins had a great start to the season but faded in recent outings and had to be put on the disabled list. Scott Baker was the most consistent starter for the Twins last season but he has been the opposite this season, prone to big innings and struggles the third time through the rotation. The biggest problem has been Francisco Liriano, the phenom of years past that did a great job for Minnesota in the second half of the season last year has been atrocious this season, going 2-6 with a 6.42 ERA. Liriano may be better served in the bullpen for Minnesota as he still has great stuff and is generally in control the first time through the order. Rookie Anthony Swarzak made a great debut to fill in for Perkins and if he pitches well again he may earn an extended stay.
The bullpen for Minnesota was a complete disaster early in the season but has shown some promising signs of late. Although he has blown two saves this season Joe Nathan is still a very reliable closer but the Twins simply have not been in enough close games to get full use out of him. After a shaky April Jose Mijares has begun to pitch well and Matt Guerrier remains a viable option. After a very rough April veteran Luis Ayala has shown improvement and R. A. Dickey fills a vital long relief role. Recent call-up Sean Henn may have what it takes to stick around as well. Craig Breslow was released and veteran Jesse Crain may be the next to be moved if he continues to struggle. In all the bullpen will still remain a weakness for this team and with the starting pitching not living up to expectations this unit has taken on a much greater workload. As the Twins go on the road those problems could be magnified.
Imagining this team with Johan Santana and Matt Garza must be painful for Twins fans but in reality this team could significantly better with one or two more reliable arms in the bullpen. Not re-signing Dennys Reyes has proven to be a mistake as he has pitched well for St. Louis and filled the role that the Twins unsuccessfully tried to fill with Breslow and now will role the dice with Henn as a lefty specialist. Alexi Casilla was sent back down to the minors despite being a key player for Minnesota in the second half of last season and he could provide a spark but the middle infield is still going to be a weak spot offensively and seeing the success Jason Bartlett has had for Tampa Bay this season and even watching Adam Everett hit .300 for Detroit leaves some questions after both of those players fell out of favor in the Twins organization. Although it is expected that Mauer and Morneau will carry this team, as the May results indicate the Twins will only be as good as their pitching even if Mauer wins another batting title and Morneau is in the MVP race again. With the brutal June schedule ahead Minnesota may need another great late season push to stay in contention, particularly with how well Detroit is playing.
VegasInsider.com