June Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
You know the saying, “May flowers bring June showers.”
For Major League Baseball pitchers hurling during the month of June, showers are hopefully not in their immediate plans. Instead, it’s the hope of all MLB starting pitchers to stay around long enough in their starts to avoid having to clean up and go home early.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in June, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts.
To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.
Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s June list.
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Arrieta, Jake - 8-4 (6-2 A)
Only Clayton Kershaw has been in Arrieta's stratosphere since 2015. The right-hander is in the right organization which has allowed his abundant talents to flourish and this season opposing batters are hitting a mere .168 against him. His effortless delivery and mid-90's fastball causes a lot of swings and misses as does his breaking pitches.
Cole, Gerrit - 10-2 (6-0 A)
Cole is now the ace of the Pittsburgh staff and expertly commands a two and four-seam fastball in the mid to upper 90's which he can sink or have riding action. After a sluggish start to season, his ERA is down to close to 2.50 and expect him to have another fine month. Note: Cole’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during June.
*Colon, Bartolo - 10-5 (7-0 H)
The 43-year old right-hander just keeps churning along on staff that is very talented and youthful. Colon knows how and where to spot his fastball, which he tosses 70 or more percent of the time and blends in a quick slider that has excellent depth. The fact is Colon understands his craft and wins.
Lackey, John - 11-5 (6-1 H)
Remember for years no pitcher in his right mind would want to pitch at Wrigley Field, now they line up for the chance. Being a talented young team helps and Lackey is the right fit, with fastball he keeps low in the zone and sinker opposing hitters cannot elevate. Through two months, the batter's Lackey has faced are at a lowly .209 batting average and his WHIP is sick 0.97.
Sanchez, Anibal - 9-4 (8-3 H)
The Detroit hurler has gotten off to a rugged start with ERA over 6 as June began. Sanchez's problems revolve around lack of pitch placement, not even having 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio and giving up more than a hit an inning. Of the 58 hits allowed, 11 have left the yard and if the Tigers are going to be contenders in the AL Central, Sanchez will have to throw like previous June's.
*Scherzer, Max - 11-4 (6-2 A)
If you research Mad Max's numbers, many are at or below career norm, yet he begins this month with an ERA over 4. The problem is too many pitches right down the middle, which is why he on pace to give up 45 home runs (15 thru May). If Scherzer solves this, he will have a great rest of the year.
Tillman, Chris - 11-3 (4-1 A)
After an off year in 2015, the Orioles righty has come back in a big way. When he's at his best like he has been this year, Tillman works his low 90's heater at the knees on both sides of the dish and his curve and changeup have sharp downward motion. He starts this month with hitters at .203 batting average versus his tosses.
Volquez, Edinson - 11-5 (7-1 A)
The Royals right-hander is doing what he does best, as in nine of his 11 starts for Kansas City he has induced double digit groundball outs. Volquez is still thought to be a power pitcher and gets numerous weak swings with tilted curve and deluxe changeup he will throw on any count.
*Zimmermann, Jordan - 12-5 (8-3 H)
After an unbelievable start, Zimmermann has drifted back to the previous career numbers. He pulled a groin late last month, but is expected to make start on June 3rd and continue from that point. His strengths include four pitches he trusts to throw for strikes and he has shown greater durability thus far in the AL.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Miller, Shelby - 6-12 (2-6 A)
After disastrous start with Arizona, having ERA over 7, maybe a trip to the DL with bad finger on throwing hand will settle Miller down, who looks like he is trying to throw a no-hitter on every pitch and is getting hammered. The talent has always been in place, just not the execution as this record shows. Note: Miller’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during June.
Verlander, Justin - 4-10 (2-5 H)
No longer equipped with high 90's fastball, Verlander tends to give up runs in bunches these days. He can be sailing along for three to five innings and then give up three or four runs in single inning. Without the necessary secondary pitches, he's become easier to hit a third time through the lineup.
Weaver, Jered - 5-10 (1-6 A)
It is sometimes tough to watch former aces who were among the best in the game, as their stuff is in decline and they are not close to what they used to be. This is the case of Weaver, whose fastball barely reaches 85 MPH, which makes his breaking ball and assortment of change-ups less effective. It is no accident at this juncture hitters are clocking him for .311 BA.
MLB Weekly Dose 5/31-6/03
By Brandon Shively
Covers.com
5/31--Chi White Sox (Latos) @ N.Y. Mets (Matz)----Latos has regressed during the month of May which was fully expected to the tune of a 6.48 FIP. Opposing batters are hitting .326 vs him and he is giving up 2 home runs per nine innings. The Mets will call on Steven Matz who has 28 strikeouts to only 2 walks this month and a 1.26 ERA. The Mets have won his last seven starts. Matz throws a 93-94 MPH sinker that has stifled hitters and has added a slider this year to go along with his curve and changeup that gives him one of the best four pitch arsenals in the game. Before Monday’s game, the White Sox had lost six straight games and the bullpen had blown the lead in their previous two games. The Mets maintain a Top 10 bullpen and I think this is a game where laying the -1.5 runs is warranted. The White Sox offense is at a disadvantage not being able to use their DH , Avisail Garcia, who is hitting .292 for the month of May. Let’s take a closer look at the Mets (-1.5 runs) Tuesday night.
6/01--Washington (Scherzer) @ Philadelphia (Morgan)----I recommended fading Morgan in my ‘Weekly Dose’ on the road against the Cubs, and that turned out to be an easy winner. Wednesday, I think he is worth another strong fade, as the Nationals offense has fared very well vs. left handed pitchers this season. The Nationals are ranked 3rd in the Majors in weighted On Base Average this season and they will have Maz Scherzer on the mound who has held current members of the Phillies lineup to a .191 career batting average. Scherzer ran into trouble in one inning his last start, but was dominant the other 6 innings. Scherzer racked up 60 strikeouts last month and the Nationals are 3-0 in his three career road starts vs. the Phillies. Again, I think this is a good spot to lay the -1.5 runs as I can count on the Nationals to score runs off of Morgan and also count on the Nationals bullpen that is ranked #5 in the Majors to seal the deal.
6/02--Boston (Porcello) @ Baltimore (Jimenez)----We have two good offensive teams in a hitters ballpark, coupled with a struggling Jimenez along with Rick Porcello who appears to be due for a regression. Current members of the Orioles are hitting .299 vs Porcello and he has a lifetime 5.45 ERA vs. the Orioles in 71 IP. Jimenez appears on the verge on getting demoted and it’s best to make money fading him while we still can. He finished the month of May with only 19 strikeouts to go with 19 walks. The OVER is 4-0 in his last four starts. With the Red Sox leading the Majors in runs scored a game and the oddsmaker still showing a bit too much respect for Porcello, I think we see a final score in the 6-5 range and the OVER is worth a second look.
6/03--Atlanta (Teheran) @ L.A. Dodgers (Kershaw)----This is going to be one of those ‘Low Risk-High Reward’ type of plays. Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers has been on fire and I fully understand it’s tough to fade him, especially against the Atlanta Braves. But we will be looking at the Braves as an underdog of +250 or more with Julio Teheran who has been very good himself lately. Teheran finished the month of May with a 1.38 ERA. The Braves won at the Cubs and at Pittsburgh also when he was on the mound. Teheran only scattered 6 hits and 2 runs vs. the Dodgers earlier this season. Other than Kershaw, the Dodgers are not a good team in general. The offense is inconsistent and the bullpen is also inconsistent. Another situational factor is that the Dodgers are coming off a big series vs. the NL leading Chicago Cubs and a slight letdown might be in store. Kershaw gave up 10 hits vs the Braves earlier this season and current members of the Braves are hitting .280 against him. If we can get the upset here, the payout will be huge and well worth it.
Some of these pitching matchups might change, so it’s always good to check daily for changes and injuries, etc.
5 MLB Pitchers with Betting Value
By: Chris Torrisi
Wecoverspreads.com
In today’s blog I’ve circled 5 pitchers who are off to a slow start in 2016 and many bettors probably have already written them off. But if you dig deeper into their numbers I think these pitchers will all be under priced moving forward the next few weeks creating value and opportunities to bet on them. Let’s take a look deeper at these guys.
Alex Wood Dodgers
Alex Wood was a highly touted prospect drafted by the Braves organization in 2012. Wood was just placed on the 15 Day DL for tricep tightness but when he comes back I think Wood will offer value. Now I rarely ever back a pitcher their first game back off the DL, so keep in mind to maybe skip that start. After his first initial start back you may want to look at Wood. Disregard his 1-4 start, he’s fallen victim to his bullpen and lack of run support at times. He’s pitching great, averaging over 9K/9 innings pitched. He’s been priced really low as a dog twice in the month of May and since his slow start has rarely been priced over -150. When the Dodgers start to make their run and Wood comes back to health look to pick some cheap spots with this young hurler who in my opinion has a bright future in Los Angeles ahead of him.
Dallas Keuchel Astros
Take about regressing, Dallas Keuchel was a hot bet for the betting public last year, and this year has burnt their pockets early on. This is where the value sets in. I’m not writing off Keuchel just yet. The ERA of 5.58 is a little misleading, if we look deeper at his FIP he has a 4.11 which is a good thing. He’s been a bit unlucky as well as we look at his BABIP which is .327, definitely a lot higher than the .269 BABIP number from last year. To start the season he had some pretty hefty price tags of over -150 in almost all starts. That number has dipped with his early struggles, and the Astros struggles as whole. Now you can normally find Keuchel under -150 on the ML moving forward. It presents some great value on him and I’d look to pick my spots with Keuchel going forward to snag up his value while his stock is low.
Michael Wacha Cardinals
4.99 ERA and a 3.59 FIP for Wacha tells me all I need to know. He’s also been very unlucky with a career high .340 BABIP. Wacha is so due to really catch some breaks moving forward. At 7.9 his K/9 innings pitched is actually higher than last year. His 2-6 start and a couple of horrible outings vs the Cubs and Rockies recently probably is starting to really leave bettors leery of Wacha. The value is here with Wacha, he was priced as a +200 dog against Washington the other day and had a good quality start outing in that game. He has to cut some of his walks down moving forward, but as always the Cardinals will be contenders and Wacha is a key piece to the puzzle. I think he will be priced extremely lower than he should moving forward and will present some nice opportunities.
Matt Harvey Mets
Three straight games priced as a dog, and I think we’re starting to see the betting public shy away from Harvey starting to write him off. Look at his 5.37 ERA vs his 4.13 FIP. How about a career high .353 BABIP! He’s been really unlucky up to this point of the season. I’m not ready to write off Matt Harvey at all. In fact I think he is due to really start to get some luck on his side and create a lot of good betting opportunities at cheap prices. Start to look for your spots to pick with Harvey at bargain deals.
Michael Pineda Yankees
This guy has been through injury after injury and it’s unfortunately derailed his career up to this point. Once a promising prospect, he now is struggling with a 2-6 record and a 6.92 ERA. I actually struggled with putting Pineda on this list and almost put R.A. Dickey or Matt Cain on this instead of him but I stuck with my gut. What struck me about Pineda is how unlucky he’s been up to this point of the season with a .390 BABIP, the highest of all pitchers on this list. In his stand out year with the Mariners in 2011 his BABIP was .259! His FIP this year is 4.66, not a great number but much lower than his 6.92 ERA. He’s going to be a risky bet moving forward, as I’m not crazy about this Yankees team in general but if you are careful moving forward I think Pineda is definitley the Wild Card of this bunch but he may have some nice value at the betting window in unexpected spots moving forward.
Nine for nine: Surprise starters cashing for MLB bettors
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
On June 8, highly-touted 24-year-old pitching prospect Jameson Taillon made his Major League debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates in what eventually hit the box scores as a 6-5 loss to the defending National League Champion New York Mets. In that defeat, the 6-5, 240-pound righty from Lakeland, Florida surrendered just three earned runs through six credible innings of work. For all his efforts, Taillon was sent back down to the minors.
That’s not to say the Pirates weren’t impressed, because they most certainly were. There just wasn’t enough space on the 25-man roster to retain their bright young pitching star. But Taillon was called up again this past week when ace Gerrit Cole went on the disabled list with a right triceps strain and this time around he dazzled to the tune of 8.0 innings of work with just two hits and zero runs surrendered in a 4-0 win over that same New York Mets club.
The point of the story here is that the Pirates aren’t the only club in Major League Baseball that will be calling up highly-regarded pitching prospects over the next few months. In fact, several clubs will want to take a good, long look at what they have in their respective farm systems. The key, however, is to identify which of these pitchers will be able to deliver the goods at a great betting price night in and night out. But before we take a look at the prospects who could make some waves in the near future, let’s analyze nine surprising pitchers who have turned a sizeable profit through the first three months of the 2016 MLB season.
Chris Tillman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (2.87 ERA)
Decisions: 9-1, +$883
Overall: 12-2, +$1,065
Analysis: The Orioles have emerged victorious in ten of Tillman’s last 11 starts, with the eight-year veteran surrendering two or fewer earned runs eight times during that stretch. Tillman boasts a diverse four-pitch arsenal (four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, knuckle-curve) that devastated the Red Sox for seven full innings on June 14 (5 hits, 1 earned run, 7 Ks) en route to a 3-2 Orioles victory despite entering the game as +176 underdogs. Take note, however, that the 6-5, 200-pound righty has been listed as a favorite in eight of his last nine trips to the bump.
Next start: Sunday, June 19 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Colby Lewis, RHP, Texas Rangers (2.81 ERA)
Decisions: 6-0, +$821
Overall: 10-4, +$923
Analysis: Despite pitching for the A.L. West-leading Texas Rangers, Lewis has taken the mound as an underdog in six of his last seven starts, delivering a tremendous return on investment in the process. His latest gem came in the form of a complete game, two-hit masterpiece in Oakland on Thursday where the 36-year-old took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before surrendering a lone run in a 5-1 Texas victory. After losing back-to-back Lewis starts on May 4 and May 9, the Rangers have since rattled off seven straight wins with Lewis leading the charge, a stretch that has seen the pitcher lower his ERA from 3.20 to 2.81.
Next start: Tuesday, June 21 vs. Cincinnati Reds
Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers (2.52 ERA)
Decisions: 7-1, +$710
Overall: 8-1, +$860
Analysis: Since surrendering five runs on ten hits in a 9-4 loss at Cleveland on May 5, Fulmer has won six straight decisions while dropping his ERA from a lofty 6.30 to 2.52. More recently, the 23-year-old from Oklahoma City has rattled off a four-start stretch that has featured four wins, 27.1 innings pitched, nine hits and a staggering zero total earned runs. Give a large portion of the credit for that run to Fulmer’s incendiary fastball, the four-seam variety of which averages 94.4 mph with a complementary two-seamer that sits at 94.9 mph.
Next start: Friday, June 17 at Kansas City Royals
Josh Tomlin, RHP, Cleveland Indians (3.27 ERA)
Decisions: 8-1, +$707
Overall: 10-2, +$805
Analysis: Tomlin has allowed more than two earned runs in an outing just four times in 12 starts this season and only once over his last six trips to the hill, which has been intriguing to most observers considering the Cleveland staff features three starters in Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar who were expected to dominate the headlines in 2016. Another big plus here is the fact that despite all his early-season success, Tomlin has still been listed as an underdog in three of his last five starts, a trend we expect to see shift in the very near future.
Next start: Monday, June 20 vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (3.38 ERA)
Decisions: 6-1, +$486
Overall: 8-5, +$151
Analysis: Yes, Sanchez has turned a very respectable profit in his seven decisions this season, but bettors need to be advised that the 23-year-old has been the benefactor of elite run support through the first three months of the 2016 MLB campaign, with the Blue Jays scoring seven or more runs in five of Sanchez’s last six starts. Granted, the 6-4, 220-pound righty has limited the opposition to three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine outings, but that explosive Toronto lineup is a big reason why Sanchez has been listed as a favorite of -140 or higher in four of his last six trips to the bump.
Next start: Friday, June 17 at Baltimore Orioles
Rich Hill, LHP, Oakland A’s (2.25 ERA)
Decisions: 8-3, +$480
Overall: 8-3, +$480
Analysis: Acquired on a one-year, $6 million free agent contract this past winter, Hill may go down as the best value signing of the offseason…and in classic Billy Beane/Oakland Athletics fashion, will likely be flipped at the trade deadline for prospects. The 36-year-old southpaw has enjoyed quite the renaissance in 2016 thanks to a devastating curveball that features more than eight inches of both horizontal and vertical movement. The downside here, however, is the fact that Hill is currently on the disabled list due to a groin injury and won’t resume throwing off a mound until next week at the earliest.
Next start: TBD
Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Colorado Rockies (2.89 ERA)
Decisions: 8-4, +$434
Overall: 9-4, +$534
Analysis: Prior to the start of the season, many industry insiders considered the Rockies to be nothing more than a 70-win team at best. Yet, here we are on June 17 and Colorado resides at just one game under .500 thanks, in part, to the efforts of Chatwood, who has surrendered a grand total of just 12 earned runs over his last seven starts, with the 26-year-old winning four of his last five decisions. Credit a nasty two-seam fastball for the five-year veteran’s success, as Chatwood currently ranks first in the National League in ground ball percentage at 58.7 percent. Like they say, if the ball is on the ground, it can’t leave the yard.
Next start: Saturday, June 18 at Miami Marlins
Steven Wright, RHP, Boston Red Sox (2.22 ERA)
Decisions: 8-4, +$418
Overall: 8-5, +$289
Analysis: Wright has emerged victorious in each of his last five starts while permitting two or fewer earned runs in four of those aforementioned outings. But perhaps what is more impressive is that the 31-year-old’s knuckleball has induced at least 12 ground ball outs in three of his last four trips to the hill after the four-year veteran notched just one such effort through his first nine starts of the season. Wright is coming on strong and bettors would be wise to take notice.
Next start: Monday, June 20 vs. Chicago White Sox
Christian Friedrich, LHP, San Diego Padres (2.12 ERA)
Decisions: 3-1, +$268
Overall: 4-2, +$301
Analysis: True to form, the Padres are a dumpster fire, with two of their best pitchers (Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross) on the disabled list unable to spray any additional gasoline on the fire. But almost too quietly, Friedrich joined the rotation in mid-May and has since proven to serve as a glimmer of hope, with six total starts featuring three or fewer earned runs surrendered. Not only that, but the 28-year-old lefty has allowed only one home run on 603 total pitches this season. The best part here? Friedrich has been listed as an underdog in five of six starts since joining the rotation.
Next start: Friday, June 17 vs. Washington Nationals.
NL Value Starters
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
There are several months to go but it is easy to be excited about the National League playoffs given how stacked the league is with power arms and elite starting pitching.
The American League All Star team will have an unenviable task next month as Terry Collins will be able to trot out a truly elite starter in every inning if he wants to.
As the separation grows between the contenders and the rest of the league the cost to support the elite starters on quality teams will continue to grow.
Ultimately identifying quality starters at lower price points will be the key to having success in the National League given how steep the prices will be on the starters for the Cubs, Nationals, Giants, and Mets, as well obviously Clayton Kershaw.
There are several National League starters that project a few tiers down that still can offer some promising potential on many nights while falling in line at costs that are much easier to stomach in most matchups.
Here are a handful of possible value starters in the NL for the coming weeks.
Jerad Eickhoff (Philadelphia Phillies): Aaron Nola was the dominant starter for the Phillies in the first two months of the season and remains the highest priced starter in that rotation. It was Eickhoff that wowed in eight starts last season however and after some ups-and-downs in April he is starting to put it together again in 2016. Eickhoff is almost 26 and he won’t be on a sharp innings watch like Nola or Vincent Velasquez in the Phillies rotation and he has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. Eickhoff owns a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and despite his 4-8 record he has picked up a win in three of his last five starts after starting the season 1-6. His ERA is just 3.40 with a FIP that is only slightly higher and his walks and home runs allowed have been kept in check of late. With a limited offense the Phillies are sometimes tough to support but the team has still won 30 games with similar home and road results and Eickhoff might be the best pitcher to support for the Phillies with the ‘under’ also looking playable in many of his upcoming starts.
Michael Wacha (St. Louis Cardinals): Wacha looked like he was on the superstar fast track starring for the Cardinals late in the 2013 season and in the playoffs. Injuries derailed him in 2014 but he had a fine 2015 season for the 100-win Cardinals. Wacha has already taken as many losses as he did last season at 2-7 but his FIP is 3.51, significantly lower than his season FIP was in 2015 when he wound up 17-7 with a 3.38 ERA. The Cardinals had a slow start to the season but the team is rounding back into form and while catching the Cubs might be a challenge in the NL Central this certainly looks like a team poised to claim a wild card spot. Wacha’s marginal numbers will lead to reasonable pricing to support him even though he is still capable of a dominant outing. The schedule has worked against Wacha as since mid-May his starts have come against the Rockies, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Pirates, and Rangers, taking on some of baseball’s best offensive teams. Even so he has a quality start in three of his last four outings and he offers great promise the rest of the season at discounted pricing compared to the lines he drew last season.
Bartolo Colon (New York Mets): Backing Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz is certainly more comforting but Colon’s prices are sharply discounted on the following nights for the Mets. The 43-year old is occasionally the butt of jokes but there is nothing funny about the success he is having against NL hitters. Colon has delivered five consecutive starts with two or fewer runs allowed and his ERA is down to just 3.01. He owns a better than 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and while he gives up a lot of hits, he usually escapes with limited damage and he has only allowed two home runs over his last six starts. The Mets are 8-4 in his last 12 starts and with New York possessing an unreliable offense Colon can be supported at a much more reasonable price than the rest of the rotation, avoiding the risk of laying -200 or greater behind an offense that is often sweating out one-run games.
Jake Peavy (San Francisco Giants): While it seems like Jake Peavy has been around forever he is only freshly 35 and could have a few solid years remaining in his career. Peavy is 3-6 with a 5.83 ERA but after a rocky start to the season he has been pretty reliable in recent weeks. His season FIP is a much more respectable 4.16 and his ERA is only 1.82 over his last four starts. Peavy is still getting nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings and after allowing six home runs in his first six starts of the season he has allowed just two in his last seven starts. Everyone would prefer to support Madison Bumgarner or Johnny Cueto but Peavy might be the value option to support a Giants squad that scores nearly 4.5 runs per game despite playing in a pitching-friendly ballpark, while also playing strong defense and generally looking like one of the best teams in baseball.
Zach Davies (Milwaukee Brewers): Davies hasn’t been considered a high ceiling prospect and with his small frame he was only a 26th round draft pick by the Orioles in 2011. Davies is only 23 however and after a shaky April he has emerged as a reliable option in the Milwaukee rotation. Davies has a K/9 of 8.3 over the last month while turning in four straight quality starts. Davies has actually allowed six or fewer hits in 10 consecutive starts and while he has been a little fortunate with a low .262 BABIP on the season his command has been strong with a low walk rate. Davies seems to have solved Miller Park which typically is a tough venue for pitchers as he owns a 2.88 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in eight home starts with the Brewers winning five of those games. While Milwaukee isn’t likely to be a playoff contender the Brewers have a winning home record and Milwaukee has played above .500 ball since the calendar turned to May as this has been a competitive team that is still frequently getting solid underdog pricing.
AL Value Starters
June 13, 2016
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Most of the elite starting pitchers reside in the National League as only three of MLB’s top 17 leaders in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) are AL starters at this point in the 2016 season. Even so, it still costs a premium to back well established AL starters such as Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, among others.
Here are some names that won’t offer the same chance of a dominant outing but can often be found with much more reasonable pricing and could be worth a look in many future matchups.
Matt Shoemaker (Los Angeles Angels): Pitching for the struggling Angels will keep Matt Shoemaker in the underdog role in many matchups but the 29-year old right-hander has pitched much better than his 3-7 record indicates. Shoemaker has been on a particularly strong run since mid-May, actually posting some of the best numbers in the AL in the past month. Shoemaker has pitched at least seven innings in five consecutive starts while posting 48 strikeouts in that span and delivering four quality starts. He owns a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season and his FIP is more than a run lower than his ERA. Opportunities in late June against Oakland and Houston could be favorable for Shoemaker even with an erratic offense providing support behind him.
C.C. Sabathia (New York Yankees): Many felt C.C. Sabathia’s career might be over when he stepped away from the team late last season but after a mediocre April in 2016 Sabathia has been on a roll in recent weeks and starting to look like the All Star starter of past seasons. His 2.28 ERA is a bit lower than will be sustainable but Sabathia has not allowed more than three runs in any of his 10 starts this season. His strikeout rate isn’t close to his best seasons and he is allowing frequent walks but he has allowed just two home runs in nearly 60 innings, no small feat for a Yankees pitcher. Sabathia has delivered great recent outings against formidable offensive teams including the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tigers and he has a strong bullpen to help him pull out wins even with a limited offense for New York.
Collin McHugh (Houston Astros): With a 5-5 record and a 5.22 ERA McHugh is among the many Astros that has disappointed this season but his strikeout rate continues to climb back up in recent starts and strong outings may be ahead for the curveball artist that has been a bit streaky the past two seasons. McHugh has posted 37 strikeouts over his last five starts and while he has had few dominant outings he has gone nine straight starts without allowing more than four runs. His numbers have been hurt by pitching in some tough venues with recent road starts at Boston, Arizona, and Texas and his control has been excellent with one or zero walks allowed in nine of his 13 starts this season. The Astros may be on the verge of making a run to climb back into the postseason race and McHugh could offer some value in the coming weeks with his marginal conventional numbers.
Sean Manaea (Oakland Athletics): Young starters with potential are frequently overvalued when they get off to hot starts and AL starters like Michael Fulmer, Matt Andriese, and Danny Duffy are starting to get a bit overvalued. From a value perspective the rocky first three starts Sean Manaea are a great benefit as his conventional numbers still look pretty rough despite clearly turning a corner on the mound. The 24-year old rookie allowed 16 runs in his first 13 innings of work but in five starts since his numbers have improved dramatically. His strikeout numbers are climbing and he has allowed just 30 hits in his last five starts spanning nearly 33 innings. Take away one brutal start at Fenway Park vs. the league’s best offense and his numbers look much more reasonable and while Oakland doesn’t look like a playoff contender, they have a similar record to division foes Houston and Los Angeles despite being valued like one of the worst teams in the AL. Pitching at the Coliseum should also allow for some favorable situations for the young left-hander.
Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers): The Rangers have the best record in the American League and supporting Colby Lewis won’t cost the premium that backing Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, or even Martin Perez will. Lewis owns a FIP that is more than a run higher than his ERA but his numbers have been improving since the first month of the season and the bottom line is that he is now 21-7 in his last 28 decisions since May of last season. His 3.45 FIP is the 12th best in the AL over the last month and given how well the Rangers are playing Lewis will be worth a look in future matchups as the 36-year old continues to provide solid starts behind a team that has been dominant at home and shown improvement in the bullpen. Texas has had a knack for winning close games this season and Lewis could continue a charmed late career run.
Trevor Bauer (Cleveland Indians): The rotation for the Indians features high end talent but backing Corey Kluber or Danny Salazar will be expensive even with some erratic results for those strikeout artists. Bauer isn’t as dazzling but he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts since moving into the rotation in late April. Bauer is still producing a decent strikeout rate and he has for the most part kept the ball in the ballpark with only six home runs allowed in over 68 innings of work. Bauer is getting a much greater rate of ground balls than he did the past two seasons and while his strikeout numbers are a bit less impressive than were projected early in his career, he has also lowered his walk rate and he has become a more reliable and consistent starter on a first place team.
MLB Weekly Dose 6/21-23
By Brandon Shively
Covers.com
6/21 Cincinnati (DeSclafani) @ Texas (Lewis) - I feel this might not be the best spot for the Rangers. One, they just played a makeup game yesterday vs the Orioles when they should have had a day of rest. The Reds did have a day of rest which is beneficial for their bullpen especially. Then there's the ‘fade angle’ in effect as Colby Lewis came up just short of throwing a perfect game is last start. More times than not, you will see pitcher’s struggle their next start after having their hopes shattered like what happened to Lewis. Anthony DeSclafani will be making his 2nd start of the season. The first start was decent as he threw 102 pitches and only scattered 1 run off of 8 hits vs the Athletics. Colby Lewis is still a huge flyball pitcher that pitches for contact. He doesn’t strike a lot of people out. Advanced metrics show him due for a regression as he has a 4.75xFIP compared to only a 2.81 ERA. He has been fortunate to strand 83% of baserunners and this number figures to drop. The Reds are going to be a big underdog here, but they have been playing better ball since May 28th. While the Reds come into this game having lost two straight, they haven’t lost three straight in their last 22 games. The Rangers will be a very popular public play on Tuesday and this line will be inflated and possible bet up. I will be giving the Reds a second look on Tuesday night as a low risk, high reward underdog.
6/22 Colorado (Gray) @ Ny Yankees (Sabathia) - Jon Gray and the Rockies were a popular bet last week when they were installed as an underdog vs the Marlins. Gray and the Rockies took a loss, so the majority of bettors will be scared off of backing Gray again Wednesday night. However, I see reasons to be optimistic in his chances to pick up a win. Gray has 23 strikeouts to only 3 walks this month. He has given up 2 ER or less in ALL but one of his road starts. Gray throws high heat in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball and his slider has been his most effective pitch, with an advanced pitch f/x value of 9.4. For C.C. Sabathia, it's’ just a matter of time before he blows up and has a string of rough starts in my opinion. Sabathia’s advanced numbers signal for a regression looking at his 4.53 xFIP compared to his 2.20 ERA. Much of this is due to his 81.7% strand rate which will drop, it’s just a matter of time. Also, Sabathia’s walk percentage is the highest it’s been since his rookie season in 2001 and his velocity is at an all time low. Sabathia's fastball is only averaging 88.6 MPH while his changeup is averaging 83.3, a difference of only about 5 MPH therefore the changeup is not as deceptive. Sabathia’s slider has not nearly been as good either, but that has been going on for the last three years. Regardless, I see a sign of regression for Sabathia. The Yankees offense has been highly inconsistent this season. Jon Gray and the Rockies beat the Red SOx earlier this year at Fenway Park and I think they are worth a closer look to pull off another upset Wednesday night.
6/23 San Diego (Friedrich) @ Cincinnati (Lamb) - Taking a closer look at the ‘OVER’ here is always going to be a good idea when two terrible overused bullpens like the Padres and Reds are playing each other. Then add to the fact that the Padres hit left handers much better and Reds starter John Lamb is a lefty. I am not going to go in-depth in this game, because it’s fairly simple as we have two southpaw pitchers on the mound in a hitter friendly park with two horrible bullpens and the offenses are more than capable of scoring about 5 runs each...Let’s look at the OVER here.