Knowledge makes baseball bettors richer
By Doug Upstone
Sports talk radio and sports forums are loaded with people that have opinions on all kinds of topics. Some are informed, many are not. Throwing out the often tired "_______ sucks" does not qualify as riveting or informed perspective on a particular team or player. If the teams or players are playing good or bad, for the sports bettor, it pays to know and understand why.
"It's not working"
The Baltimore Orioles (-9.6 betting units) started the year 2-16, getting a head start on their usual second half collapse. Playing in a division with the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay does not make the job any easier and they've only faced confounding Toronto in the first three games of the season before anyone realized they would be this good to this point.
The Orioles are only scoring 3.3 runs per game and though they are 7-7 since horrific beginning, they are not doing anything at the top of the batting order. Baltimore manager Dave Trembley keeps trying to find one hot bat for the No. 1 slot of the batting order, but thus far, nothing has worked with Cesar Izturis (.226 at press time) Julio Lugo (.244) and Adam Jones (.230) all having a turn without producing to help Ty Wigginton or Matt Wieters drive in runners.
The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros (-10) have the same basic problem as they have muddled along in 2010. The Cubs (-11.3) placed Ryan Theriot at the front of the lineup and he gets on base regularly with .331 batting average. Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto are both hitting over .330 but the middle of the lineup is a black hole on the north side of Chicago. Its not a good sign when one of your starting pitchers (Ryan Dempster) has a higher batting average (.230) than those in the heart of the order. Derrick Lee (.211, 27 Ks) Aramis Ramirez (.163, 30 Ks) and Xavier Nady (.186, 10 Ks in 43 ABs) are swinging and missing, giving new meaning to the Windy City and the Cubs not scoring enough runs to win.
Houstons Michael Bourn is batting lead-off, hitting .284 with on-base percentage of .366 and is nearly automatic to reach second base after a single with 11 stolen bases. Unfortunately he might have to start stealing third and home with Lance Berkman hitting .194 and Carlos Lee at .207. This less than dynamic duo has 17 combined runs batted in, which 34 National League players have surpassed individually.
There is a very good reason why White Sox slugger Paul Konerko leads the Major Leagues with 13 home runs, yet has only 27 rbis, nobody ahead of him in the batting order is ever on base. Leadoff man Juan Pierre has stolen 15 bags, but he cant steal first and .230 BA leaves Chicago missing opportunities. The same is true of Gordon Beckham in the No. 2 slot of late, batting a shocking .193 and leading the Pale Hose in strikeouts with 27. Its little wonder the White Sox (-9) are hanging out with Cleveland and Kansas City in the lower regions of the AL Central instead of hunting down Minnesota
So thats how you do it
Its either seldom or never heard, The Washington Nationals are my favorite bet. The Nats are in second place at 18-14 behind two-time National League champion Philadelphia and are the tops in baseball betting at +12.4 units. How could this possibly be the world wonders?
Eventually, Washington will slide below .500 if they keep being outscored by a half a run a contest. Nonetheless, at least for now, four elements have changed. The first bit of credit goes to skipper Jim Riggleman, whos altered the tone in the locker room. For years, Nationals players didnt seem to care if they won or lost, but now those in the clubhouse daily see joy when they win and remorse when they suffer a defeat.
Next, Washington is in the middle of almost all NL offensive stats, which gives them a chance and their defense which has been one of the worst since moving to D.C., is at least average and they are getting to more balls that lead to outs. Lastly, the Nats are not blowing as many games late with Tyler Clippard and closer Matt Capps both having ERAs under 1.00.
The San Diego Padres (+8.0) are atop the NL West, thanks to a nasty pitching staff and just enough offense. Pads pitchers have hung seven zeroes on opposing teams and held seven others to one or two runs, which doesnt necessitate having the pressure of scoring a lot of runs to stay in the game.
San Diego pitchers are second in the NL is ERA (2.73) and BAA (.224). Padres hurlers are in the top six in strikeouts and top five in fewest walks allowed, which stops scoring threats from exploding. Everything is so cheery around Petco Park, even talk of trading Adrian Gonzalez has stopped.
Torontos unlikely quick start this campaign has been fueled by starting pitching (2nd in the AL in quality starts) and hitting the long ball. The Blue Jays (+7.3) hitters lead baseball with 51 home runs, which has meant no prolonged scoring droughts.
As good as Toronto has been, Tampa Bay (+6.2) has been that much better in the standings. In spite of a great deal of youth among its starting staff, the Rays top five starting pitchers have an ERA all under 3.20. They have 22 quality starts, the finest in the AL and the entire staff has the best ERA (2.83) and skimpiest BAA permitted at .222.
Tampas team batting average is pedestrian at .252; however they are third in baseball in runs scored and clutch when it counts, second in the AL in runs scored when there are two outs. This is still the most athletic team in the game and if first sacker Carlos Pena would stop trying to pull everything and hit balls to left-center like he used, the offense would only improve.
The final team to bet on is the Yankees, which is usually a bad choice considering what the losses cost. Presently, New York is hitting and pitching so well you have to think about them every day, especially on the run line.
The Yankees margin of victory is 2.2 RPG and they are 21-7 in games decided by two or more runs. Betting them on the run line is a safe wager at -150 or more on the money line, because they are so dominant and it keeps the losses to a minimum.