LCS Betting Breakdown
By Bodog
It’s not easy being the Tampa Bay Rays. They made the World Series hunt despite a bargain-basement payroll and an apathetic fan base, posting the best record in the American League at 96-66 (2.94 units). Then they lost their AL Division Series to the Texas Rangers (90-72, -1.60 units) in five games, thanks in part to some blown calls, but mostly due to the excellence of Cliff Lee. Now it looks like the Rays are going to lose OF Carl Crawford (.851 OPS) to free agency in their quest to save even more money. No wonder they have trouble keeping fans.
Would it surprise anyone if Crawford ended up on the New York Yankees? They have enough money to buy anyone they want, and they’re back in the AL Championship Series after sweeping the Minnesota Twins, just like they did last year. The Yankees are –170 to keep the ball rolling and eliminate the Rangers (+150). But do they have the pitching to get the job done?
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
The Yankees (95-67, -4.61 units) were World Series favorites for most of the year, until concerns about their pitching rotation knocked them down a peg to 9-5 on the MLB odds board. But by brushing aside Minnesota in three games, New York gets to rest its pitching order for the ALCS. CC Sabathia (3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) will get the start in Game 1 on Friday night at the Ballpark in Arlington, followed by Phil Hughes (4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and Andy Pettitte (3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).
Texas has to be a bit more creative after going the distance against Tampa Bay. Lee (3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) won’t be available until Game 3; he’ll be preceded by C.J. Wilson (3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and Colby Lewis (3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), two very pleasant surprises in the Rangers rotation. Wilson finished the regular season second in the MLB money standings at 12.49 units in the black on a team record of 24-9, with the UNDER going 20-12-1. Even though he pitched just as well, Lewis wasn’t so fortunate, dropping 9.51 units with just 14 team wins in 32 starts (UNDER 20-10-2).
Lee doesn’t like to pitch on short rest, so it doesn’t make much difference that he’s unavailable for Game 1 – he’s only going to make two starts in this series regardless. And that’s the problem for the Rangers in this seven-game series. They need two wins from someone other than Lee. The Yankees are the best hitting team in the majors (.350 OBP) and third overall with 201 home runs. Lewis is a flyball pitcher, and both parks in this series are favorable to home run hitters. Wilson, meanwhile, is matched up against Sabathia. Tough gig.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
The two best teams in the National League are fighting for the pennant. The Phillies (97-65, 9.71 units) are in the driver’s seat after plowing through the Cincinnati Reds in three straight, including complete-game shutouts by Roy Halladay (on a no-hitter) and Cole Hamels. The Giants (92-70, 13.99 units) have some quality arms of their own, although they needed four games to eliminate the Atlanta Braves. Not a problem – San Francisco used a four-man rotation and will go with Tim Lincecum (3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) in Game 1 on Saturday.
Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) is just one reason the Phillies are –250 to win the NLCS and 27-20 favorites to win the World Series. Roy Oswalt (2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) has pushed the Phillies into top contender status, leading his new team to 10 wins in 12 starts for 7.17 units in earnings. Add Hamels (3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), and you’ve got the kind of strong and durable three-man rotation that wins championships, should manager Charlie Manuel decide to leave Joe Blanton (4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) in reserve.
The Giants will counter with Jonathan Sanchez (3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) in Game 2 and Matt Cain (3.14 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) in Game 3, switching their spots because Cain pitches better at home. Lincecum has blister problems, but the Giants have an excellent bullpen should he falter, and Madison Bumgarner (2.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) was brilliant putting away the Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS. The UNDER should be a tasty bet in this series after going 25-10 in San Francisco’s last 35 games and 8-5 in Philadelphia’s last 13.