Lessons learned from MLB's first week

Lessons learned from MLB's first week
By David Jones

With one week of season in the books, it's time to see what the early numbers could mean going forward. If you think some of the surprise division leaders might have some staying power, it is interesting to note that none of the first place clubs on April 14, 2008 made the playoffs. Tampa and Philadelphia were both 6-7 at this time last season. The major league season is clearly a marathon and not a sprint. While patience is needed over the long haul, there are always some opportunities to get a leg up on the bookmakers early in the season. Here are some teams and categories to keep an eye on in the next couple of weeks:

Toronto's offense

The Blue Jays were 11th in the American League in runs scored a year ago while allowing the fewest runs in the majors. Entering Monday’s games, Toronto's 46 runs leads all of baseball. DH Adam Lind and second baseman Aaron Hill have combined for a whopping 20 RBIs in seven games. However, the Jays have been fortunate to face squads (Detroit and Cleveland) with some questionable starting pitching.

Injuries did play a role in the mediocre offensive numbers in 2008 as Hill played in only 55 games and star outfielder Vernon Wells missed 54 games. The offense could continue to produce over the next few series. After a four-game set in Minnesota, the Blue Jays begin a six-game homestand against Oakland and Texas. While the Twins have a quality group of starting hurlers, the A's and Rangers have some issues to deal with in their rotations.

Over the season, the production of Lind and fellow lefty bat Travis Snider could be important to compliment the right-handed power bats of Wells and Alex Rios.

Surprising Seattle

The 5-2 start for Seattle is interesting on a couple of fronts. The Mariners have been a far better team at home than on the road in the last couple of years, so a 5-2 road swing is quite encouraging for a squad that went a woeful 26-55 away from Seattle in 2008. Seattle is also winning without its franchise player. One of the biggest offensive weapons in all of baseball, Ichiro Suzuki, is scheduled to make his season debut by sometime this week.

Any hopes for a respectable campaign in 2009 are keyed by the club's standout duo at the top of the rotation. Lefty Erik Bedard was limited to just 15 starts a year ago but he has come out of the gates quickly this season. Bedard has posted an ERA of just over two with only one walk in his two starts this year. His 15 strikeouts in 13.1 innings pitched are an indication that the left-hander is ready for a big 2009 campaign. If Bedard and young right-hander Felix Hernandez can combine for about 70 starts this year, the Mariners could have some staying power.

While it is unusual to label a homestand as important in April, the Mariners do have a golden opportunity to build some more momentum. The nine-game stand that will begin on Tuesday will feature the Angels, Tigers and Rays. With six games against playoff clubs from a year ago, we could get some real indicators about how good Seattle is going to be.
Cleveland's starting pitching

In some ways it is surprising that Cleveland's rotation has been so dreadful to start the year. With Cy Young winner Cliff Lee coming off of one of the best years in recent memory and a healthy Fausto Carmona, the Tribe figured to have a sound duo at the top of the rotation. However, the bottom of the rotation was not expected to be that good in 2009.
The Indians starters have an ERA of 11.62 after six games. While half of the games were in last year's highest-scoring stadium in the majors at Texas, the numbers are still alarming.

The key over the long haul will be Lee. It isn't a given that he will quickly rebound from a couple of rough starts. From 2004-06, Lee posted a record of 46-24. In 2007, Lee posted an ERA of over six before being sent to the minors. This could be an indication that Lee is a pitcher who needs his confidence to excel. His next start will be on Thursday in the debut game of new Yankee Stadium.

It will be an interesting week as Cleveland's hurlers will travel to Kansas City to face a squad (only 14 runs scored in six games) that has some ice cold bats before heading to New York. Carl Pavano and Carmona are each scheduled to make two starts during the trip. If the starters can't get healthy against the Royals, it could be another long week for Tribe fans.

Astros, Nationals struggles

Neither one of these clubs was expected to contend in 2009. With a combined record of 1-11, these squads could be in an extended funk for awhile.

After scoring the fewest runs in the majors in spring training, the Astros’ offense has stayed cold when the games began to count. The offense (16 runs scored in six games) was expected to be better than the pitching in 2009, but the makeup of the lineup could lead to some real inconsistency. The ‘Stros could be relying too much on the long ball to score.

These types of teams can be overpowered by strong starting pitching – something that happened last week against the Cubs and Cardinals. The lack of speed hampers Houston even more when balls aren't flying out of the park.

Houston could break out of an early season slump with a series against the Pirates but be careful betting the Minute Maid boys this season. The Astros were one of the streakiest clubs in the league last year. They’ll be a tough team to back until the big hitters start knocking some balls into the cheap seats.

Washington backers have even less reason to feel optimistic after the first seven days of the regular season. The addition of slugger Adam Dunn and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman (missed 56 games in 2008) was supposed to spark the Nationals offense. That hasn’t been the case so far but the hitters get a bit of a pass after facing some top-tier arms.

The same cannot be said for a pitching staff that posted a team earned run average over eight in the first week of the season. Washington has gone with a combination of average veteran starters acquired from other clubs and youngsters who are in some cases being thrown into the fire before they are ready. The results have been predictable.

It could get real ugly over the next couple of weeks for the Nationals. Their next 15 games are against the NL East although the first nine of those contests will be at home.

The structure of these two clubs could lead to a few more losing streaks for handicappers to ride over the rest of the season.