Line Moves – Crucial Betting Info
By Doug Upstone
The first weekend of August has the first hint of football and a full slate of baseball action. Five different contents show intense action from sports bettors and we analyze what they might be thinking. Check out today “nuggets”, threw a curveball in the mix for those wanting a further taste of the gridiron.
L.A. Angels at Detroit
Jered Weaver (10-7, 3-04 ERA) and Jason Verlander (12-6, 3.74) were among the first dozen players picked the 2004 Major League draft and both have been Al-Stars and put up impressive numbers early in their big league careers. Tonight they meet in Detroit and bettors are paying attention. This contest opened at SBGGlobal.com at total of 7.5 and has been hit hard and moved to 7. Another factor as to why the number has cascaded is the Angels have scored three runs per game in last nine losses and the Tigers have been even worse at 2.45 RPG in previous 11 defeats. With Detroit 13-2 UNDER at home vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season, this movement makes sense.
Colorado at Pittsburgh
The assessment made by the wagering public on Colorado and Pittsburgh was accurate yesterday as reported here and we’ll check to see if they are right again. Colorado was bet down as significant betting choice in Game 1 of the series and lost 5-1 to the Pirates. Online baseball bettors believe they are on to something and the Rockies are a -138 or lower money line wager, with the sunrise number at -149. No question an ineffective Jason Hammel (7-6, 4.37) is a good reason to consider betting on Pittsburgh, since he is 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in last four starts and Colorado is 20-33 in road grays. Nevertheless, Zach Duke (5-10, 5.36) may have won his last two starts against the Rockies, but he still has 6.25 ERA against them and he and Bucs are 3-17 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the year since 2008.
St. Louis at Florida
In the sweltering heat and humidity of Florida, the Cardinals and Marlins open up series with two hot hurlers. Adam Wainwright (15-6, 2.19) could well be a 20-game winner in 2010 and Ricky Nolasco (12-7, 4.28) has been enfuego with 7-1 record in last eight starts, striking out better than a man per inning. (64 K’s in 56 innings) The Cardinals flew into town as -149 ML favorites and have fallen like Congress approval ratings to -127 or lower. St. Louis might be 13-7 since the All-Star break, but Wainwright is not the same pitcher on the road. All six of his setbacks have come away from Busch Stadium and his ERA is more than two runs higher on the road. The Fish may have lost four in a row; however they are 9-0 with Nolasco after three or more losses.
Texas at Oakland
This might well be Oakland’s last chance to make a race of the AL West, as they play host to first place Texas. The A’s and Rangers have had the lowest ERA’s in baseball since the All-Star break, with Oakland leading the way at 2.98 and Texas a digit behind at 2.99. Two contributors to this cause will go toe-to-toe at McAfee Coliseum. Cliff Lee (9-5, 2.51) has a 2.13 earned run average in past three starts and Dallas Braden (6-7, 3.63) has gotten back to the kind of form that produced Mother’s Day perfect game, with 2.70 ERA in his last trio of trips up the mound. Those betting on sports have found the -171 ML on the Rangers tough to swallow and have made them -158 or lower. The past three seasons, Lee is 14-2 in road outings vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs a contest. However, Oakland is fighting for their playoff lives and is 7-1 at home vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better and 10-4 with the lefty Braden as underdogs of +125 to +175.
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Kansas City at Seattle
Pride comes into play with this AL matchup. With Zack Greinke (7-10, 3.97), Kansas City was a lidlifter -169 ML road favorite over Seattle, yet upon further contemplation of these two sorry clubs, those wagering on baseball shifted the number to -158 or less. Greinke has not been the same pitcher that won the Cy Young a year ago and he and his team are 6-12 versus squads averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per contest. Seattle was bombed 6-0 by Texas on Thursday, supplying ninth loss in 10 games. The Mariners are 2-12 off a loss by six or more runs and 20-48 after suffering yet another defeat. This is a pick your poison play, you make the call.
3DW Bonus Info
Money Line Nugget
Boston is 0-11 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over the last two years.
Totals Nugget
In CFL action, Toronto is 12-1 UNDER off a blowout loss by 24 points or more to a division rival since 1996.
Run Line Nugget
Tampa Bay is 2-16 against the run line in road games after allowing eight runs or more the last two years, losing by two runs RPG.