Lookin' at the Playoffs
By Bruce Marshall
American League
Whereas the New York Yankees clearly loomed as the team to beat at this time a year ago, that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. Although we remain wary of the Bronx Bombers, some of the cracks that appeared in the foundation over the past few weeks, resulting in Joe Girardi’s crew gifting the AL East to the Rays, could continue to haunt the Yanks in October.
Still, what might be the most important factor in the AL postseason equation is the ability of teams to control the Yankees’ left-handed power. Both the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers have two quality southpaws who can neutralize Mark Teixeira and the Yanks’ top-heavy lefty lineup, which means they probably have better chances to defeat the Bombers than they have had in their previous playoff frustrations against the New Yorkers, going back to Texas in the mid ‘90s, and numerous Minnesota postseason failures vs. the New Yorkers over the past decade (2003, ‘04, and ‘09). The Twins get the first crack at the Yanks in the ALDS.
And some longtime observers believe Minnesota is prepared for a breakthrough vs. the pinstripers, much as the Kansas City Royals, after three gut-wrenching ALCS losses to the Billy Martin-Bob Lemon Yankees in 1976-77-78, bounced back to sweep the Bronx Bombers in 1980. New York’s current vulnerability appears to be with its starting pitching; once past CC Sabathia, can Girardi really count upon the sliding Philip Hughes, or expect to squeeze more playoff innings out of the aging Andy Pettite? A.J. Burnett (1-5 with a 7.09 ERA since August 20) doesn’t seem to be a viable option at the moment. And New York, just 29-30 since August 1, is not riding much of an updraft into the postseason.
The Twins might finally have the balance necessary to beat the Yankee power and depth, because they run the bases well, have become far more patient at the plate, play the usual superb defense, and can deploy lefties Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing. Although Minnesota did not play well after clinching the AL Central (just 2-8), at least no one else was injured down the stretch; 1B Justin Morneau, out since early July with post-concussion syndrome, looks to be the only missing piece for the playoff roster. The Twins’ problem is short relief, especially if Jon Rauch’s balky knee continues acting up; Matt Capps is not someone you want facing Yankee power in the Bronx with a one-run lead.
The Rangers, with their southpaw aces Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson, might also like their chances in a short series vs. the Yankees, but they first must overcome the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Like the Yankees, Texas was also not exactly flying down the stretch, and is crossing its fingers that recent casualties Josh Hamilton (returned last weekend from rib injury) and David Murphy (groin) will be ready to contribute. Although Hamilton, Murphy, Michael Young, and inspired DH pickup Vlad Guerrero posted impressive numbers this season, the lineup has a tendency to chase pitches, which can often haunt in the postseason. And other than Lee and set-up man Darren Oliver (who may or may not be on the postseason roster), no one on the staff has any playoff experience.
Tampa Bay might be built for a postseason run similar to its World Series appearance two years ago, thanks in part to a bullpen that was much more reliable than past seasons due to the presence of ex-Brave closer Rafael Soriano and a stable of effective set-up artists. As usual, base running and defense featuring the electric Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria (both on their way to Cooperstown?) might have to compensate for human wind machines such as 1B Carlos Pena and OF B.J. Upton, who struck out more than 300 times between them. Still, the Rays are healthy and confident, and something tells us this dynamic bunch is going to be the team to beat in the AL.
National League
Unlike the AL, where the Yankees appear vulnerable, the Philadelphia Phillies enter the NL half of the playoffs as the clear team to beat as they look for a third straight pennant. Yet there is a team in the senior circuit that neither the Phils, their NLDS foe Cincinnati Reds, nor the wild card Atlanta Braves (who don’t have much choice) particularly want to see in October.
Indeed, the San Francisco Giants appear to be a potentially scary foe in a short series. As long, that is, as their sterling starting pitching produces as it has over the past month. With starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain back in a nice groove down the stretch, Jonathan Sanchez spinning an ERA of around 1.00 in September, and young Madison Bumgarner continuing to impress, Bruce Bochy might not even need risking Barry Zito in the postseason rotation. With an NL-best 3.41 ERA, and a deep bullpen that can bridge to dominating closer Brian Wilson, the Giants can pitch their way to their first World Series since 2002. Meanwhile, the consistent stick of 1B Aubrey Huff in the middle of the batting order, the explosive debut of rookie phenom C Buster Posey, plus veteran additions such as 2B Freddy Sanchez and OFs Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, have given the Giants a more functional lineup than in the recent past. Other NL contenders have been forewarned.
Of course, the Phils are going to believe they can match the Giants at the top of the rotation, with trade-deadline acquisition Roy Oswalt joining Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels as the only starting trio each with sub-3.10 ERAs. And a potential weak link, closer Brad Lidge, has settled down since early August, converting his last 10 save opportunities. Once healthy, the Phils (who missed Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins for big portions of the season) roared down the stretch to run away with the NL East flag. It’s going to take a team with pitching like the Giants to slow them down.
We’re not sure it can be the Reds, who get the first crack at the Phils in the NLDS after losing 5 of 7 vs. Philly in the regular season. Skipper Dusty Baker has already announced that he’ll be using an all-righty rotation (Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto) in the first round. Arroyo is the only one of that trio with postseason experience, and Baker will hope that putting the wily Arroyo between the harder-throwing Volquez and Cueto will keep opponents off balance. But many suspect the Reds were built better for the long haul, with a solid infield defense featuring 9 Gold Gloves and anchored by 3B Scott Rolen, and a ground-covering group of outfielders, than a short series during which the staff, without much postseason experience and still with some questions in the bullpen (closer Coco Cordero blew 8 saves this year), might prove their undoing. Baker will surely need a big October from 1B Joey Votto, who might be up to it after posting MVP-type numbers (37 HR, 112 RBI, .323 BA).
It would be a nice story if the Braves, in manager Bobby Cox’s farewell, can make a deep run, but indifferent form over the past two months suggests that is unlikely. Most of Cox’s likely starting pitching options (Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens) performed better earlier in the year than down the stretch. And with Chipper Jones injured, the Braves often went into extended funks at the plate, with midseason pickup Derrek Lee and rookie RF Jason Heyward eventually forced to carry the run-producing burden.
Neither the Braves nor the Reds appear to be the NL team to KO the Phils. The Giants, however, might have what it takes.