Major League Baseball's Second Half Preview
By ATS Consultants
Here is a look at the review of the first half of baseball preview of the second half. The Pittsburgh Pirates are the league's biggest surprise, as they lead the NL Central, but the Cincinnati Reds are right behind them. And the Pirates collapsed in the second hal last year after a great start.
American League
The New York Yankees have the best record in the American League and in baseball, despite losing OF Brett Gardner and RP Mariano Rivera to long-term injuries, along with starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. Rivera is out for the year and they don’t really miss Gardner because they have a deep bench led by Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez. Joe Girardi has done an outstanding job with a mediocre starting staff though their staff ERA is 3.73, which ranks eighth.
They are ahead of the surprising Baltimore Orioles (45-40), who are just a half game ahead of Tampa Bay (45-41). The Orioles lead the AL against the money line ($1237). Tampa Bay needs a healthy Evan Longoria (hamstring) and it looks he won’t be back until August. Even if Baltimore slips a little, they appear to be in the mix in the AL East because Tampa Bay, Boston (43-43) and Toronto (43-43) have major injury issues. Watch if Toronto gets P Brandon Morrow (oblique) back from injury. That should help.
In the Central, the Chicago White Sox (47-38) have taken a three-game lead but look out for Detroit (44-42, $-1143). They have been the most disappointing team in baseball, but now they are coming on. If they can add one more arm, they can take the Central. Cleveland has been a nice surprise at 44-41 and are just one game out of the last wild card spot. The Minnesota Twins (36-49), Kansas City (37-47) and Seattle (36-51) are the only teams in the American League under .500. The Twins are expected to be sellers before the July 31 trade deadline.
In the West, the Texas Rangers are 52-34 ($92) and now four games ahead of the LA Angels (48-38), who were off to a dreadful start. Then they fired the hitting coach and 1B Albert Pujols (14 homers, 51 RBIs) went on a tear. The Angels could use another starter and so can the Rangers and just about every team in baseball. Oakland is led by OF Josh Reddick, who has 20 homers, though the team is 29th in runs per game (3.71) and 30th in batting average (.225). But their pitching has been very solid, as they rank 4th overall (3.39 ERA). Their no-name staff led by Bartolo Colon (6-7, 3.80 ERA) offers youngsters like Tommy Millone (8-6, 3.57 ERA), Jarrod Parker (5-4, 2.86 ERA) and Travis Blackley (2-2, 3.20 ERA). Seattle has hitting issues (3.87 runs per game, .230 average) and their pitching isn’t as strong as its been in the past. That’s what happens when you trade almost every available prospect (Doug Fister, Michael Pineda). It makes you wonder if they are going to deal Felix Hernandez (6-5, 3.13 ERA), though they are more likely to trade Kevin Millwood (3-6, 3.69 ERA) to a National League team,. considering he’s rejuvenated his career.
National League
In the National League, Washington (49-34, $1066) and Pittsburgh (48-37, $1887) have been the surprises of baseball. Washington ended the first half, losing 2 of 3 to the Colorado Rockies. They have the best starting pitching in baseball (3.21 ERA) and their hitting (4.19 runs per game, .251 average) is adequate after a slow start. They’ll be getting back OF Jayson Werth (wrist) from the disabled list very shortly. But the Nats are just 4 games ahead of Atlanta (46-39, $421) and 4.5 games up on the NY Mets (46-40, $1005) in the NL East. The Nats could be buyers for another bat and/or another pitcher (either in bullpen or 5th starter). The Braves, coming off a three-game sweep of the Phillies, average 4.6 runs per game as OF Jason Heyward (.294, 14, 41), 1B Freddie Freeman (.264, 11, 49) and C Brian McCann (.238, 13, 46) are providing the boost. The Mets are led by P R.A. Dickey (12-1, 2.40 ERA), who is having a career first half. The Mets are 14th in average at .259 and 15th in ERA at 3.97. They could use another arm and hitter as well. Philadelphia (37-50, $-2462) is finished while Miami (41-44, $-943) is hanging in there, but doesn’t seem to have enough to make a run, especially now that OF Giancarlo Stanton (19 homers, 50 RBIs) is out up to six weeks after knee surgery.
In the NL Central, the Pirates are led by All-Star Andrew McCutchen, who is having an MVP-type of season, with 18 homers and a .362 average. P A.J. Burnett has come over from the American league and leads the team in wins with 10. They are hitting just .246 as a team, but their pitching (3.48 ERA) has carried them. Cincinnati (47-38, $443) is right behind the Pirates (one game) and is a team to watch in the second half. Johnny Cueto (2.39 ERA) is having a great first half, while 1B Joey Votto (.348. 14, 48) is doing what he normally does. St. Louis (46-40, $-464) is quietly having a pretty good season and they could be in the Zack Greinke sweepstakes. Milwaukee (40-45, $-1297) probably won’t deal Greinke to a division rival, but he could wind up there as a free agent. The Chicago Cubs (33-52, $-1145) and Houston Astros (33-53, $-1147) will definitely be sellers as the Astros already gave up Carlos Lee.
In the NL West, the LA Dodgers (47-40, $602) are barely hanging on without star OF Matt Kemp (hamstring), who is finally returning this weekend and 1B Andre Ethier. San Francisco (46-40, $489) will have to make a decision on 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (3-10, 6.42 ERA) who is getting hammered in the first half. Does he go to the bullpen or do they put him on the DL? The Giants lack power but they do have some good hitters including C Buster Posey (.289, 10, 43). Arizona (42-43, $-498) could be dealing OF Justin Upton, while San Diego (34-53, $-1205) and Colorado (33-52, $-1560) are going fishing (or selling at trade deadline)
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Four Adjustments MLB Bettors Must Make In The Second Half Of The Season
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
Major League Baseball was back on the diamond this Friday, kicking off the post-All-Star break schedule with players and managers refreshed and refocused on the second half of the season.
Unlike the pre-break slate, the final three months of the MLB calendar throws a lot more outside factors into the mix when it comes to capping baseball on a daily basis. The temperatures are higher along with the stakes, as the playoff picture starts to take shape.
Any MLB bettor who thinks they can turn a profit in August with the same theories and tactics used in June may want to thumb through Charles Darwin's "The Origin of Species".
It's survival of the fittest in the second half of the baseball schedule and some of Covers Experts’ brightest minds explain the biggest adjustments MLB capper must make when betting the back half of the slate:
Pitchers and bullpens
The late-summer months can be devastating to a pitcher, even those that excelled in the first chunk of the season.
Standing alone on the mound with the sun sapping your energy is tough enough, but add in the pressure of starring down big-league bats with the game on the line and it’s amazing that these arms don’t melt like a Popsicle.
“I'll look to fade pitchers that have already surpassed their career highs in terms of innings pitched and have shown signs of wearing down,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “A lot of young pitchers aren't used to the long haul that is the MLB season and tend to tail off down the stretch.”
One young pitcher inching toward a hard pitch count is Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, the Nats have been adamant about keeping Strasburg under 160 innings despite him being on pace for 193 innings and a good chance that the club will make the postseason.
With starters wearing down and resting up for the postseason push, bullpens become even more important down the home stretch of the season. Relief pitchers can also feel the heat before the expanded 40-man rosters provide some extra options in the later innings.
“Teams like the Mets, Cardinals, Brewers and White Sox are all in playoff contention right now, despite continued bullpen struggles in the first half,” notes Covers Experts Ted Sevransky. “They'll all be priced like contenders in the second half but without bullpen reinforcements, they're all in danger of dropping out of the race. Over bettors love, love, love struggling bullpens.”
Weather
When the mercury rises, so do the scores. That’s the general consensus among baseball bettors. On top of tired pitchers, certain hurlers can fall victim to the heat and humidity more than others.
Fly-ball pitchers like Texas’ Colby Lewis and the Mets’ Johan Santana have pop-ups, which would have stayed in play in May, soar over the fence in August and September. Sinkerballers and ground-ball arms, like Cleveland’s Derek Lowe and Toronto’s Ricky Romero, are not as susceptible to the effects of the humidity.
Bettors can also note cooler-climate clubs coming to play in hot-weather environments. Minnesota may find itself gassed for the series finale after a scorching set in Arlington or Los Angeles, giving extra value to the host side.
Odds
Books and bettors have a good idea of what they’re working with when it comes to baseball teams at the break. And for that reason, the moneyline prices see a major hike when a contender takes on a team outside of the playoff picture.
It’s no shocker to see the New York Yankees listed at -300 or higher versus a club like the Kansas City Royals come September. Betting on those big faves is a high-risk, low-reward wager but looking at the other side is a nice way to build your bankroll late in the year.
“There are times where I'll pull the trigger on a +250 dog that I wouldn't have bet at a +200 price point in the first half,” says Sevransky.
Sevransky keeps a close eye out for what he calls “September morph” teams, bad clubs that suddenly show life at the end of the season and good teams that stumble toward the finish line.
Last year, bettors would have been bit hard following the Boston Red Sox or Atlanta Braves in the second half of the season (combined -28.38 units) but would have made a small mint cashing in on the late play of Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles (combined +14.58 units).
What goes up…
Some baseball bettors would prefer to have their last three months of memory wiped clean when capping the post-break schedule. Facts and figures that have stood strong and true until mid-July now hold about as much weight as Paris Hilton’s bra.
Covers Expert Marc Lawrence says the most notable changes come from the biggest anomalies, like the Detroit Tigers’ and Philadelphia Phillies’ losing records or the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 9-0 record at home when A.J. Burnett toes the rubber.
“It's doubtful, especially considering he's lasted an average of less than six innings per start,” Lawrence says of Burnett's continued home success. “On the flip side, will the Phillies continue to languish behind Cliff Lee, who was 4-10 in his team starts at the All-Star break? Don't think so, not with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back in the lineup and Lee owning a 3.98 ERA.”
Even key players, who struggled in the first half of the slate like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, are big enough impact players that their second-half turnarounds can carry a team back to prominence and provide plenty of value not just on moneyline odds but also MLB futures as well.
“For me it’s all about value,” says Covers Expert Chris Elliot. “In the second half, buy low and sell high. It’s just like the stock market. The key is to have accurate valuations. Pujols is a perfect example, the odds for him to blow up in the second half are off the charts taking into account past history. I see the Angels soaring to the top of their division.”
Best MLB Second-Half Over/Under Bets
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
The Philadelphia Phillies’ chaotic first half of the season has left them with the best over mark in baseball at 53-31-3. Injuries to key pitchers and underperforming arms have helped MLB bettors take advantage of the Phillies’ skewed totals.
On the other side of the number, the Oakland Athletics hit the break as the top under play in the big leagues, posting a 31-52-3 over/under mark. A meek offense, which sits near the bottom of most statistical categories, and surprising efforts on the mound get the credit for those payouts.
The funny thing is, the Phillies and A’s aren’t known for their current positions. Since 2007, Philadelphia has been one of the better under bets while Oakland has leaned toward the over.
If you’re searching for consistency among the totals during the second half of the MLB schedule, these six teams are your best bets:
Best over bets in the second half of the season since 2007
New York Mets (187-158-16 over/under)
The Mets have been the most consistent over play during the dog days over the past five seasons and appear on track for another solid run for fans of the over. New York went into the break as the second-best over bet in 2012, boasting a 49-33-4 over/under record, and was an over machine following the break last summer, finishing the year with a 44-25-2 over/under mark.
San Diego Padres (184-160-13 over/under)
San Diego is near the bottom of the money list, however, has leaned towards the over with a 43-41-3 over/under count – most notably 24-17-2 over/under on the road. With an offense that ranks among the worst in baseball each year, the Padres’ totals are always on the slim side but it appears the summer heat helps juice those bats enough to finish on the other side of the number. They went 40-27-3 over/under following the break in 2011.
New York Yankees (182-167-17 over/under)
The Bronx Bombers live up to their nickname in the back half of the sked. Thanks to an ocean-deep lineup with big bats at just about every spot, New York is averaging 4.85 runs per game and ranks first in home runs with 134 this season. Oddsmakers inflate their home totals because of the home-run factory known as new Yankee Stadium but with the pitching staff in shambles, opponents should be able to touch up New York for a few more runs in July, August and September.
Best under bets in the second half of the season since 2007
Cleveland Indians (158-189-16 over/under)
The Tribe surprised in the first half of the season, hanging tough in the competitive AL Central. Cleveland’s pitching hasn’t been that sharp and a recent offensive outburst has led to a 42-39-4 over/under record, including a 7-3 over/under count in its last 10 games before the break. However, the Indians are the most consistent second-half under play in baseball over the past five years including a 28-45-2 over/under record in 2010. The All-Star hiatus may have cooled those bats and a slew of upcoming road games could keep their offensive production down.
San Francisco Giants (167-185-8 over/under)
The Giants are to unders as the Yankees are to overs. San Francisco’s lackluster offense and star-studded rotation has made it one of the top under plays on the back nine of the slate. The Giants record versus the total at home and away is nearly a negative of each other. They’re 12-27-3 over/under inside AT&T Park and 29-15 over/under away from it. A lot of that has to do with the road struggles of ace Tim Lincecum, who is 9-1 over/under with a 9.00 ERA as a guest this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (163-185-13 over/under)
Not all AL East teams live and die through offense. Tampa Bay entered the break with a 35-46-5 over/under count, thanks in part to a solid staff which ranks ninth in the bigs with a 3.73 collective ERA. The Rays were the best second-half under bet in 2011, going 30-37-5 over/under, and have benefited under bettors in the final two and a half months in all but one of the past five seasons. Injuries to some of the bigger bats in the lineup have Tampa Bay hitting just .232 BA – 28th in the majors.